*Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013*

Tetchy. I think an Arc outranks the others, don't you? After all aren't most of the ones you selected restricted by age?

mac99, surely it is the 3yo allowance that is under question rather than the fillies 3lb. If the latter was such an advantage, why don't more 4yo fillies win the race? Adding the 3yo to a fillies allowance is the issue. That said, Treve would have won at level weights with Orfevre imo


The 3yo are at a definite advantage , so yes a reduction  a two pound reduction in the weight a 4yo  of either sex   gives to  a 3yo of either sex  is  clearly required if the  Race  is going to be fair  to each age group , perhaps a  a one pound  increase in the Filly allowance  at the same time would
be more reasonable  than taking the full allowance away ...some initiative around the  weights issue  is needed imo

meant decrease  in filly allowance

When the Arc winner concerned is seriously out of form and runs down the field it can hardly be held up as a notable scalp. Nevertheless though Danedream's win was a good Arc.

You are right AT. I only brought it up when others listed the achievements of also rans. I'm really only interested in the first five or six to finish.

The weights issue is a red herring - why is it even being discussed? It's a tradition of racing that has existed for decades.

Treve won the race because she was (by far) the best horse - the 3lb allowance had nothing to do with it.

Not every race is decided by 'far the best Horse' sometimes a nose is enough to  decide  the outcome , so weight matters that is  imo  you clearly disagree with it .so let's leave it at that

Briust, you've gave us FACTS, so I'm going to give you FACTS but I might be clutching at straws.

So You Think another over HYPED Ballydoyle bullshit horse got beat in the Arc by the GERMAN filly (over 5 lengths), then bombed in the Breeders Cup (4-1CF), bombed in the Dubai World Cup (5/4F) and then won a couple of races beating Famous Name in G1 and Carlton House in another G1. Now that is scintillating form of a world class racehorse (Famous Name and Carlton House).

St Nic has got a mediocre record going right handed and got beat by that wonder horse Windsor Palace at the Curragh!!!

Snow Fairy had her ups and downs but was gutsy and classy. Just about beat two average Japanese fillies at Kyoto after her Arc defeat and then brushed aside that Frankel shadow Nathaniel at Leopardstown.

Shareta, enough been said.

Danedream got beat 3 lenghts by a horse you think highly of, Meandre and then just about got her nose in front of Nathaniel ON THE LINE in the King George. She also won a G3 masquerading as G1 at Baden-baden just touching off another GERMAN great Ovambo Queen by 1/2 a length and Pastorius (trounced by Military Attack at that crappy Singapore track).

We will have to agree to disagree!! Sayōnara.

Sorry got your forum name all wrong!!! Brigust1.

And I'm accused of being myopic ffs. I won't be able to respond to Treve's 4 year old career as yet but don't let that stop you will you.
Now just thinking this is a horse (Danedream) being closely compared with Treve. How good do you think your comments make Treve look? Perhaps Treve is not the 2nd coming after all eh? Now we are back where I started. Thanks for that Mr Dinos.

Hope I got your forum name correct?

I thought I'd join you and talk bullshit. Myopic good word!

I think Treve is better than Danedream and will be a better 4 yr old as well, that's my thought and prediction!

You got my name right Brigust1 but you put in a space!

Honest mistake with the spelling of your name, I was getting excited thinking about how good So You Think was!

Getting excited, wow. I thought that was left to me.

I am not a So You Think fan myself actually and think Fame and Glory was sacrificed for him in the AOB selections. Having F&G, SYT and St Nic all over 10 and 12f was too much so they sent him down the **** route. Big mistake imo. Screwed the horse up. His 2nd to STS in the Derby and Irish Champion, won the Irish Derby he was unlucky in Workforce's Arc and won the Coronation Cup in faster time than all of St Nics wins.
Another screw up by AOB

It will be sad if Treve doesn't exceed Danedream's achievements as a 4 year old but it will be a lot harder next season. Something to look forward to anyway.

* y e a t s

We can all get a bit excited Briggsy, sorry I meant Brigust1.

I didn't say you was a So You Think fan but I thought I would just point out another over HYPED horse that's all!

All good banter, should be good seeing her develop next year and it's great that they are keeping her in training.

That's absolutely right MrDinos. G'night.

I thought I'd join you and talk bullshit. Myopic good word!

I think Treve is better than Danedream and will be a better 4 yr old as well, that's my thought and prediction!
-----------------------

Well she has a few benchmarks she can aim at most importantly...

Danedream became the the first filly to win both the Arc and the King George.

Shame she was robbed of her excellent chance to become the 2nd horse with two Arc wins and a KG.

MrDinos
He did better than your prediction or guess Kincsem, which in football terms was high, wide and not very handsome!
The more I look at your prediction for the 2013 Arc Kincsem, the more it looks like a lucky dip pick!

The only other full prediction I saw was the one in the RULER OF THE WORLD (ARC) thread
judorick
see if this puts you off
http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Arc-De-Triomphe.pdf

I only saw the Mr Dinos post about my “high, wide, and handsome” forecast a short while ago.
Of course shortly after the race I reviewed the forecasts against the race result to see if there was anything to learn.
Probably the ground was faster than I thought, which helped the speedy pedigree horses.

I compared the result with (1) my forecast (2) narrowing-the-field forecast (3) starting prices shortly before the off, using the Excel Pearson formula.
(1) my forecast (+0.28 Pearson)
(2) narrowing-the-field forecast (+0.30 Pearson)
(3) starting prices (+0.28 Pearson)
A Pearson of 1.00 is forecasting the finishers exactly in 1 to 17 order.
A Pearson of -1.00 is forecasting the finishers in totally the wrong order i.e forecast 1, it came 17th; forecast 2, it came 16th.

So although I did not pick the winner I did list 1 to 17.
The narrowing-the-field.co.uk forecast had two winners, followed by three horses one point behind, which effectively picks almost a third of the field as top rated or “second” rated.
You could say narrowing-the-field.co.uk picked Leading Light (12th) and Treve (1st) as 1st; I picked Ruler Of The World (7th) as 1st; the betting forecast picked Orfevre (2nd) as 1st.

But I did tip and back Solemia in 2012 at 75s and won €12,800.   I think I can allow myself one

The most lasting impression when you watch the Arc again a few times is the bunch of class horses battling away for fourth to eighth places. When they were flat to the boards at the furlong pole, Orfevre and Intello were pulling away from them while Treve was pulling away from those two without maximum effort! Orfevre was in a class of his own if you take away the 3yo's.

That's faint praise for Orfevre as the older horses in the race were an undistinguished bunch - Al K apart who is a 10f horse.

AT if you watch it again you will see Orfevre was tracking Treve when they bunched and he was bumped when she sprinted clear. Soumy never went for his whip and only rode to get 2nd place because he knew he couldn't catch her. I would like to see a truly run race taking sprinting out of it.

Treve may find it a lot harder as a 4 year old but with the early races restricted by age I cannot see what will take her on. CDA will probably stay in training and go for the Ganay and Prix D'Ispahan, they would be my targets. The Grand Prix de Paris at Deauville may be a target but if Novellist returns he will go for that. Flintshire will want mid summer ground so she could meet him in the King George if its fast with Novellist going for a repeat. Then a new bunch of 3 year olds will arrive. Could be interesting.

I don't whether I'm flattered or ashamed you've used my surname in your Excel Formula Kincsem!!! No, I'm ashamed and I would love to know how managed to get hold of it!!!!!!

Well done your lucky dip generator picked the winner last year! I think we are all bored of hearing about it now! I know I am.

Can you post how much you lost Sunday!?

Nobody likes a cocky ****, especially one who tries to pick the outcome of whole race (just because you picked the winner last year).

Narrowing the field had Treve first but said to back ROW! Work that one out, they don't even follow their own statistical outcome!!!

I missed out KNOW in the first sentence!!!

Yesterday they were claiming Treve as the second coming now they are asking for a change to the weights because 3 year olds appear to have an unfair advantage. YOU COULD NOT MAKE IT UP.

In the 70's the brilliant Pistol Packer was the new Treve and had Mill Reef not been around she would have bolted up. Mill Reef smashed her. Alo in the 70's the French darling Allez France was the new Treve but Rheingold, at worse than today's WFA smashed her. How good were they? Imagine if something had smashed Treve by 4 lengths?

To my eyes she definitely carted Jarnet into the lead, I don't think he made a conscious move to circle the entire field when he did. The fact she was still basically running away in the last furlong is what makes her exceptional.

It was a bit like Frankels Guineas or Arazi's Breeders Cup win with the jockey bascially just holding on for dear life.

heard that view from Jason Weaver as well, unclepuncle
Have to say I disagree, Jarnet has ridden her 3 times before, though he had well settled (Certainly a lot more than Dettori in the Vermeille), he went forward because he knew the pace was modest.
Whilst obviously on am exceptional filly, think the jockey should take a lot of credit whilst others (Moore, Doyle, arguably even Soumillon) did nothing to change their existing position and waited for someone else to break ranks - which Jarnet did

.... thought he had her well settled...

Imagine if something had smashed Treve by 4 lengths?

Imagine if something had smashed Frankel by 4 lenghts? Utter nonsense.

Treve is clearly one of the best fillies we have seen. I note that her ratings by the likes of the Racing Post and others simply confirms this. Hard though anyone tries, the form of this year's Arc stacks up very well, with Intello an excellent guida having hosed up in the french Derby, clearly staying very well and running aboiut 128+ in the Arc.

Treve is now rated 134 by Timeform; onwe of their highest ever ratings. And like them or not, Timeform's methods have been the same for 40 years. They don't do hype.

Adjusting the fillies's allowanve becasue we have had a couple fo cracking fillies is a silly idea. Even off 134 and a 3lb allowance, a few Great male Arc winners would have beaten Treve. Sea Bird obviously, and Mill Reef and Peintre Celebre too. Sea The Stars would have beaten her as well onnhis best form. But of fillies. she is clearly very exceptional.

Cry you are judging her on one slowly run race on going unsuitable to a few of the leading contenders. I prefer to see how the form works out before I start making statements about the 'best ever'. The other horses classed as that have completed their seasons and the form has been tested. The history of the turf is littered with 'best ever's' who never then retained that position at career end.

brigust, if you are saying that Treve won a slowly run race, presumably you have to pay her serious respect as it is obviously much harder to generate large winning distances in such circumstances?

Not if you are given a lead and start by stayers Pedro. She was in the perfect position in a slowly run race. Nothing else was. I pay her serious respect but I am prepared to wait before I declare her the greatest ever. Not on that run she isn't.

Missed seeing the Arc live on Sunday but caught up last night  and have to say  Channel 4  put on a great  show , every thought was given  to camera placings  which allowed for the capturing  the    panorama  of a fantastic racecourse     , the close up shots of the Runners  were  unhurried and  so added to the sense of a  big occasion involving the very best Horses , a very  enjoyable experience .

Brigust the reason Soumillon didn't go for the whip is because when he went for the whip last year it cost him the race. If you watch his race after last years Arc, Japan cup, his jockey refused to hit him in a driving finish.

So you are now telling me a rogue was 2nd?

Not at all I think he is a top class colt but last year he threw the race away. He has his quirks. It wasn't because he was tired or he was spooked. It was because of the whip. In Japan when he raced with his regular jockey, his pilot rides completely different to European jockeys. He sits very still and when asks for more effort he remains still and taps him with the whip. In last years arc when Soumillon asked him to win the race he asked him in a European style. IE get on the back of the horse, hit him on the backside and drive him hard. He ducked away from the drive into the fence. It's more than a coincidence that in the Japan cup and in this years Arc both jockeys refused to hit him. Not rocket science to me

MrDinos
I don't whether I'm flattered or ashamed you've used my surname in your Excel Formula Kincsem!!! No, I'm ashamed and I would love to know how managed to get hold of it!!!!!!
Well done your lucky dip generator picked the winner last year! I think we are all bored of hearing about it now! I know I am.
Can you post how much you lost Sunday!?
Nobody likes a cocky ****, especially one who tries to pick the outcome of whole race (just because you picked the winner last year).
Narrowing the field had Treve first but said to back ROW! Work that one out, they don't even follow their own statistical outcome!!!

You are such a charmer I decided to answer all your questions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Pearson
Karl Pearson FRS (27 March 1857 – 27 April 1936) (originally named Carl) was an influential English mathematician who has been credited with establishing the discipline of mathematical statistics.
The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (sometimes referred to as the PPMCC or PCC,[1] or Pearson's r) is a measure of the linear correlation (dependence) between two variables X and Y, giving a value between +1 and −1 inclusive, where 1 is total positive correlation, 0 is no correlation, and −1 is negative correlation.

In Excel @PEARSON(LIST 1,LIST 2) and it tells you how LIST 1 relates to LIST 2.

Arc 2013
Win    ...............................................Odds ....... Stake €       
Penglai Pavilion...........................80............30.01
Pirika.............................................96.3..........13.55
Ruler Of The World.....................10.87........79.49
Camelot........................................    100..............4.20
                   
Place lay                   
Al Kazeen.........................................5..............-12.00
Treve...............................................2.41.........156.50

Loss ................................................................€271.75

I always rank the field from first to last.
After the race I compare the forecast to the result and try to learn.
I keep the file and use it next year.

And my "lucky dip generator" picked Ruler Of The World in the 2013 Derby, and place laid Dawn Approach and Battle Of Marengo ..... +€3k.
Sorry about that.

Even a blind pig finds the odd acorn.

I've been waiting for this all day Kincsem, you took your time!

I thought the word Tw*t might get through but it didn't! I wouldn't call you the C word because no charmer uses that word.

I only posted what I did because I thought it might amuse you but as it looks like you are a serious mathematician it was the wrong call!

I'm no mathematician and Karl Pearson isn't in my family tree but what a coincidence he has the same surname as me! I was going to give Action Fraud a ring!

Fair play Kincsem you aren't just a bragger after all. Bad luck with the result but that list you put up for the Arc did look like it come from the lucky dip generator.

"Horses make fools of us all"  proved again.
My car bumper sticker should be "Slow down for horses, horses slow down for me".

That's horse racing, nobody can get it right all the time and that includes the lucky dip generator's!

Wonder if there is any chance of Treve running in the UK next year? I suppose Royal Ascot and the King George are the only real possibilities. More likely is she won't run away from the Paris tracks.

I still maintain Zarkava  was a better horse than Treve. But both were ( are in the case of Treve ) world  eaters.

I agree with that Lucky.
Pound for pound she won a better quality Arc fairly run. He Prix Vermielle was better and she regularly beat multiple Gr1 winner Goldikova including at a mile. All in all a much better profile. Treve still has time to reverse that though.

Z was champion 2 year old filly and pouliches winner so had achieved more by the same stage - Treve's was a better Arc win though.

My reading of the Jarnet ride was: Jump off towards the rear and settle just behind Orfevre for the first 4/5 furlongs-done
Move outside Orfevre on the long bend in case he tries to get first run on me. Done perfectly.
Kick on round the last bend to get into a prominent position while Soumi untangles himself-didn't need to kick on, just give her an inch of rain.
Go for home 2 furlongs out and use that lethal acceleration-easy peasy.
At no time did I think he was out of control. The only thing he didn't perhaps plan was the ridiculous ease of the win.

Sorry, I do know how to spell rein.

agree with that sageform - I also think he realised the early pace was slow and he would need to go for home early and not rely on sweeping past tiring horses in the last 2f

AT don't agree about Treve's Arc. Orfevre is seriously over rated imo. Intello is untested, Kizuna won a below average Japanese Derby as his only Group 1 win and Penglai Pavilion has only won a Listed race. Too much hype about the strength of this race. Al Kazeem was lucky to win 3 Gr1's. The first was only against Camelot. The 2nd was a mess and the horse he beat couldn't win a Gr1 and the Eclipse should have been won by The Fugue but she was unwell. The Epsom Derby winner was beaten 10 lengths at the Curragh and the placed horses at Epsom have won nothing. Too much hype trying to make the UK horses look better than what they are.

Add to that Wild Coco (Group 2 horse at best) and Chicquita (single Gr1 winner) are definitely not Goldikova (14 times Gr1 winner)or Dar Re Mi (4 times Group 1 winner).

She was impressive but this is a clear case of style over substance. Not for the first time.

I have no problem with people saying Treve was impressive and could be anything. They can even say she is the best they have ever seen. That's up to them. But please don't try telling me this was a strong race because it wasn't. The best British horse was Al Kazeem who is probably only Gr2 at best in the scheme of things. Ruler of the World will not go down as one of the better Derby winners and Leading Light won the Queen's Vase before the St Leger. We have no depth at the moment but hopefully it will return. I blame Coolmore but that's another story.

Even Frankie Dettori thinks she ran away with Jarnet:

On the performance itself, Dettori added: "She had a bad draw, she was pushed five wide throughout, she was a bit keen. It looked like she just ran away with Thierry because he knows she's got a fantastic turn of foot and he could have waited halfway into the straight, but the filly, she wanted to go so early he let her go and it was amazing to watch.

I'll take his, and my opinion, over the rest of you.

I looked like I ran away this morning but I was only running past trees. D amn.

not funny that brigust.

i do tend to agree with your views though... thought it was a weak arc myself with very little depth going into the race...more the fact a lot of horses had had hard campaigns and weren't good enough to win an arc on form leading into it

a worthy winner however and she at least gave the race credibility with a great performance...shame there was no pace though this certainly compromised some horses chances but class came to the fore in the end... she is a top class mare the others though were certainly not

I do get accused of being too serious though Harry. Sometimes when I'm studying I try to say something light hearted. Not necessarilly a strong point so I have to rely on the knowledgeable to know when I am joking.

Glad you agree about the Arc though. What is it with this hype thing? What on earth will they do when we get a real top class race and a proper winner? Treve may yet prove to be the real deal but what will they have left to say then?

At no time did I think he was out of control. The only thing he didn't perhaps plan was the ridiculous ease of the win.

good to see wise words from a sage....

Think the likes of Jason Weaver and Dettori saying Jarnet got run away with talking absolute b***ks and serious case of xenophobia / sour grapes from the pair of them.

Treve was a lot more relaxed in the Arc under Jarnet than in the Vermeille under Dettori. You can't even begin to compare the two rides - Dettori was tactically incompetent and nearly managed to get beat, and convinced some such as Figgis and myself that he might have left Treves Arc behind her having given her an unnecessarily hard race.

In contrast, as Sageform described, Jarnet gave Treve a tactically brilliant ride, the only jockey in the race to respond to the race pace and circumstances.

Just saying he was a passenger and got carted are the ramblings of the misguided

hype is racing brigust

your earlier post about coolmore is right where i am at and i hate it

the domination of the breed especially middle distances is harming the sport...true breeders now want speed in the pedigree but the big races now are dominated by coolmores sires...some will argue it makes no odds but it does when they are continually buying up all the decent blood lines that are available thus now we have complete domination in the sport

some will say differently but the blood lines now in the middle distance division is now getting very weak in regards class...to me they are the only ones that can produce a top class middle distance thoroughbred because breeders have either been wiped out or cannot afford the inflated siring costs...i noticed this year as well that some owners now have half shares with magnier and others probably caused by not being able to afford the siring costs which if producing a class horse it will again be there's

this domination is now bearing out (over many years by the way) in poor quality middle distance race horses with the odd good one...some will argue the arc and the winner not being there's but what the arc did show was very little class in the 3 year old colt division something that has now been missing for the past few years at least...

the only thing we have to look forward to is when coolmore manage to produce another top class colt because other breeders certainly won't be unless the prince can find one but most of his bloodstock tend to be 1m/1m1/4 types

i personally am not a pedigree expert at all but after 22 years following racing and being a student of the form book for most of that time...i am afraid these are my views

a shame

Well I never HC. A good summary of many of my views.

Apart from the stranglehold they have on racing where one trainer, not the best I may add, controls 90% on the best horses. There are a huge number of Group 1 trainers with just the odd good horse to train. AOB has dozens. Add to that he is handling them terribly.
It was hard enough for PN to train Kauto Star and Denman but this guy has 20 in the Dewhurst and 21 in the Racing Post Trophy. Any number in the Derby's and in the Juddmonte I think he ha 4 of the 9 declared.

Add to that he runs any number unfit. He hasn't any idea what will run in what next. His tactics are often massively flawed and his son is his jockey. And his comments about his horses are almost laughable at times.
The whole set-up is ruining British racing and I sincerely believe is the sole reason it is in a downward spiral.

has been on a downward spiral for many years now

but my main problem with it is the class of the breed...breeders have been wiped out and now the competition is weak

looked at the dewhurst in the week and look how many top trainers have an entry??

why because they have nothing to go to war with??

deplorable

figg and ped are chatting about it on the other thread

but what are they talking about?? they are talking about class

this is my problem and is racings problem because now you are finding weak racing in the class division caused by one breeder dominating

thus leading to non competitive group racing and poor quality

Now that I agree with but the breeding industry must bear the brunt of that. Too many Gr1 races with not enough Gr1 horses to win them. Loads have a single Gr1 win and nothing else. However it was always the same with the small owner/breeder it's just that the big battalions are more prominent now. Just look at the Guineas and Derby winners to back that up. Sir Henry got a lot of praise as a trainer but he never bought anything he got agreements from the top breeders and the choice. The guys who go out to buy at the sales I admire.

you say the breeders should bear the brunt but how can they??

spiraling costs caused by one firm leave the smaller breeder in a precarious position and forces them to go to inferior blood lines thus causing an inferior breed imo

many years ago it was more exposed but many breeders have now been wiped out which of course makes it even harder for the others, unless of course they entertain or can afford to entertain coolmore...what happens when the prodigy produced doesn't fetch what it should at the sale from coolmore then the breeder is in a very uncomfortable position

Treve will go down as one of the great Arc winners it was a wonderful performance.

I mean the breeders as a whole. They put pressure on the BHA or it's predecessor to increase the number of Group races to allow the breeding industry to grow. Sadly that means more animals of lesser ability go to stud and produce more animals of lesser ability. They should have increased the number of Group races at a time when the number of Group horses demanded it and were suitable. It doesn't necessarily work the other way.
It does though allow for smaller owner breeders to get into the industry at a low level and work on a risk/reward basis. The bigger breeders also stake a lot and the prize money rewards don't cover the costs.
The only way to redress the balance, imo, is to have a good batch of quality British racehorses creating a demand worldwide but they will have to rethink their short term strategy to achieve that.

lost me a tad there...

for me there is no way back it is now out of control... it will take many years and in those years breeders will have to sire bloodstock by coolmore stallions to get the class into there own breeds which will just elevate coolmore more...the empire is now to big i'm afraid... otherwise like now, you will end up with inferior bloodstock

i will leave it there but in our lifetime it won't change... well not in mine anyway

Joined: Date Joined: 01 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 2,678 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blog
Left out Orfevre, rightly or wrongly, and gone with Novellist,Treve and Intello. Any of them will do.

For Novellist substitute Kizuna.


The clock never lies.

do you think then brigust that Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain and a German 100/1 shot are significantly better horses than Orfevre and Intello?

AT yes I do. Youmzain has good credentials for a dodgy ride. He was unlucky not to beat Dylan Thomas who was far better than Solemia. He was 2nd to STS who was far better than Solemia and so far better than Treve. Orfevre has one decent piece of form to his name when he beat Buena Vista but she has been beaten loads of time by different horses. His other 3 year old form was against the same horse and he wasn't great.
Soldier of Fortune won more than one Gr1 and clearly had much better form than Intello. The German horse, you always ten to get the odd outside popping up but could be considered better than Pengai Pavilion and Vision D'Etat won 4 group 1's including the French Derby and that is better than Kizuna.

All in all every one of the first five home failed the test. I'm sure you will agree.

Oh and I think Zarkava gave the field start in a well run race.

And Zarkave beat Dar Re Mi who is better than Wild Coco and Goldikova who s better than Chicquita. Do you need more? It's only hype keeping the others afloat.

Sorry he, Orfevre, beat Eishin Flash not Buena Vista. That's worse. Beaten at Gr2 and Gr3 level and finished 6th to Monteroso in Meydan. Thats arguably his best win because in his others he beat Win Variation three times and he hasn't won a Gr1 and has been beaten loads of times and in his other win he beat Sadanu Park. He has won a single Gr1 from loads of starts and has also been beaten at Gr2 and Gr3 level since.
Our horses are so poor Orfevre looks good, but he isn't.

All in all every one of the first five home failed the test. I'm sure you will agree.

No I don't. brigust your starting point is that all horses foaled after 2007 are not as good as those before. Doesn't make any sense.

My starting point AT is the formbook. When I made my comparisons it was based solely upon the form they have shown.

Do you not think cricket teams, football teams, boxers etc have poor era's? My point about the era and it's quality is again solely based upon results. Unlike Timeform who claim the F horse must be a champion solely because of the probability because there are more horses running today.

Whether it is a good era or not can only be decided after the results are in. As a guide using Timeform as a reference in the 70's, Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef's era, there were 17 horses rated 135 and higher. In the 80's, Dancing Brave's era, there were 22 horses rated 135 and higher. In the 90's there were 14 horses rated 135 and higher and in the 2000's, Frankel's era, there were only 5. As you can see these are not my figures. In fact I think Excelebration has been dropped so that number is now 4.

I cannot have this stuff about Treve being perfectly placed either. She had to give ground away all the way by racing round the outside. Funny how the draw was seen as a major problem before the race. During the race she was covered in sweat and pulling as well, a far from idea effort.

I've seen this stuff before when a horse beats a good looking field very well. There are always cynics who pop up and decide with hindsight that the opposition was not much use after all.

The finishing speed of Treve was simply fantastic, faster that Moonlight Cloud, and apparently her final 2 furlongs was faster than those in the Abbay.

Treve has looked brilliant in every race she has ever run in. If you look fantastic, run consistently faster than all the opposition, thrash multiple group one winners in the biggest  race of the year, it does begin to look as if you might actually be a brilliant horse. When the most reliable ratings experts all agree she is one of the best ever fillies, why start out on a campaign of "she's not much good"?

when you think Criquette Head thought Treve would be a much better 4yo and didn't want to run her in this year's Arc, then must be odds on that she's going to progress physically and maintain her superiority in 2014? Though guess also a possibility that the filly progressed faster than the trainer thought in the autumn and won't have much more to come. But amazingly only 5 starts, so surely there's still some more in the tank yet?

Apart from Novellist, can't think of any 12f champions who were missing last week (couldn't see The Fugue beating Orfevre or Intello), so looks like it will have to be a smart 3yo who gives Treve a test.... or she will drop down to a 1m/10f.

No doubt she has unbelievable speed, though would be a little sceptical about the reported closing sectionals comparison with 5f / 7f races as they were running to different winning posts / tracks and very unlikely that the 100m markers are correct (think Simon Rowlands mentioned in his piece that the 1400m distance is comfortably short of that)

You answer your own points there Cry. Faster than the Abbey and Moonlight Cloud in the finish? They went fast early on in those races and died at the end, unlike the Arc. They went no pace so getting the position you thought was so costly was exactly the opposite. It was costly for those who both waited too long and got into bother. I suggest you watch it again where virtually the whole field come in the straight on the bridle. Unlike in Danedream's Arc where the field turned into the straight flat out.

I thought Treve looked exceptional obviously but one swallow does not a summer make. My only bone of contention is when people claim it was a great field she beat, it wasn't. And I am prepared to wait until she runs without the obvious and proven advantages a 3 year old filly gets at this time of year before I acclaim her as a great on the known form. I have seen many horses bolt up then fail to sustain it so I can wait.

Next season there are many races restricted to 4 year olds and upwards or for fillies only so she should make hay.

The ratings agencies can say what they like. Apparently she is rated 1lb higher that Excelebration. Is that good? Apparently she is rated 1lb lower than Black Caviar unbeaten winner of 15 Group 1's. I don't care what the current 'expert' ratings agencies say. I'll be more interested in what she wins next season and what she beats. I wouldn't give a single toss what the ratings agencies say. They even dropped some horses last season because their figures didn't add up.

brigust, how would you rate Treve against the best recent winners of the Arc last 15 years, presumably Sea The Stars, Zarkava, Danedream, Sakhee, Dalakhani, Hurricane Run, Sinndar, Montjeu, Peintre Celebre etc

Pedro I don't rate here the equal of or higher than any of those you mentioned with Dalakhani the exception. He beat Mubtaker who Hurricane Run subsequently beat by miles.

The problem is Treve is fresh and the others we know more about. I have never been a great STS fan because his Arc wasn't great either and I'm not really sure beating Fame and Glory and Rip Van Winkle amounts to super stardom. Zarkave beat better horses, came from last to first in the Arc but then retired. Danedream won in record time in a stronger Arc than Treve's but then showed as a 4 yeat old how beneficial the 3 year old allowance can be. Hurricane Run looked spectacular at the time, like Treve, but it turned out he beat nothing in the Arc. Sakhee was exceptional in the Arc and bolted up beating a Vermielle winner but the rest weren't great. The last 3 Montjeu (my favourite), Sinndar and Pientre Celebre were simply better horses  but again were 3 year olds who were either retired or failed to show their form properly at 4 years old. They all won very hot Arc's beating previous Arc winners easily.

Treve never beat an Arc winner and Orfevre's 2nd in the Arc the year before must have been among the worst Arc' run with no Gr1 winners coming from the first 10 horses home.

Coming from last to first does not make a horse better than other types of winner it just means the horse ran a more even pace. Treve's Arc was better than Zarkava's - Orfevre was there to represent last year's Arc form while Zarkava beat a German 100/1 shot less than 3 lengths and the Derby winner was absent. Sea the Stars was a better Arc winner than Zarkava too.

Good as she was I doubt very much Treve ran better sectionals than the Abbaye and Foret.

Just think Pedro when Frankie`s back in the plate next year sky is the limit.

You may of course be correct about coming from last to first but she gave Group 1 horses a good start and ran past them. Treve, on the other hand, never gave any start, quite the opposite, and ran away from them. And in the Arc it isn't unknown for outsiders to run well in it';s history. You probably wouldn't want to judge Orfevre on Solemia or Sea the Stars on Cavalryman.
It's all about opinions but I have no doubt Zarkava's Arc was better than Treve's and so was Danedream's.

In 2013 in UK,

Frankie Dettori 16-205 for 8% strike rate, loss of 120.24, £144,084 win prize money, 

Johnny Murtagh 14-63 for 22% strike rate, profit of 44.25, £1,415,331 win prize money....

Feltfair, your undimmed admiration for Frankie is admirable 
But I doubt he can help your pocket too much .....

Another factor to consider AT is that recently German horses, as a direct result of their own breeding policy, have begun producing very   strong stayers. Unlike many of the UK and French horses where speed is more the bias.

brigust coming from last to first is irrelevant it does not make a win any better.

The German's breeding policy of using genuine 12f horses like Monsun and Lomitas but has no relevance to the fact that the horse beaten lest than 3 lenghts by Zarkava was well exposed and was the very definition of ordinary.

Your last 2 comments show how far we are apart AT. I think I have made my views clear, as have you. Best of luck.

Briggsy, you've got stamina, nearly a week since the race and you're still going strong. It's a shame you're not entered in the Cesarewitch this afternoon, I would have given you an EW shout!!!

It will be interesting to see how Novellist gets on in the Japan Cup, it looks the perfect race for him with all those average Japanese horses!

It's been a cracking debate and thread once again.

Treve was clearly different class on the day but I'm with Brigust on this. Timeform have Treve 134, 8lbs of which is credited for wfa. So to run to the same mark next year she'll need to improve 8lbs. Maybe she'll do just that but it's far from a given. For me, Danedream's win had a far more solid look to the form, even allowing that her main opponents weren't quite at their best. She proved it was no fluke when winning the King George the next year, however, it did go to show that she wasn't really 6 lengths superior to St Nic, as a literal reading of the Arc form suggested. Next year will Treve be beating 130 rated horses (assuming there are any around) comfortably by 2 lengths and upwards in a truly run race when meeting those horses at the peak of their powers? I can't answer that for sure, but at likely short odds I'd be looking to oppose her.

I am actually MrD. I will be the one on the inside carrying my laptop try not to post between 3.45 and 4.30. I will be kn ackered.

It will be interesting given that Novellist should be a fresh horse, the ground should suit but to lump all of the Japanese horses together like that is not actually correct. But it will give you an idea of how he would have fared against Treve at Longchamp. Though, as was widely mentioned before the Arc there were no guaranteed front runners so I'm not sure how Novellist would have been ridden. I hope he stays in training because with the early Group 1's restricted to 4 and upwards I cannot see what there is about at the moment.

Very good summary as usual Fig.

The point about WFA is a good one. It's arguable that horses that excel at 3 are merely precocious. If they don't race at 4+ you can never really tell whether they are outstanding horses or just ones who developed early and benefited from  generous age allowances. Perhaps the only real champions are the ones who continue to do it at 4+ like the Brigadier, Frankel, Miesque, Alleged. We'll see what Treve does next year.

I will need to have another look at the FORM then Briggsy, how heavy is the laptop? It's a good job I haven't had a bet yet!

I got the impression you didn't rate anything from Japan, Hong Kong or Singapore, I'm wrong again!!!

The Japan Cup is normally run at a strong pace which will suit his running style, as will the big galloping Tokyo track. Looks like Gentildonna, Kizuna (maybe), Gold Ship (not a good run last week) and Fenomeno are the main dangers, so it should be an interesting race. Not sure if anything else from Europe is making the trip!

No I never lump together. I look at each race on it's merits. I do think Hong Kong and especially Singapore races are generally easier to win the Japanese much things change and it depends upon the opposition. The JP is generally run at a generous pace and the course average time is similar to Longchamp I think. May be wrong there but I did look it up once.

The reasons I came to my conclusions about the Arc is because I went through every runner and every bit of form and it just left me flat. I really do like stars running.

In my calculations I rate German, Italian and Singapore Gr1's as Group 2's and Meydan is rapidly heading that way. But, as I have said it does depend upon the runners.

It will be an interesting race if only to find out how good Novellist is by comparison.

Gentildonna has still to prove she didn't win this last year because of her WFA allowance. In her fillies only wins before that she beat Verxina into 2nd 4 times so there doesn't look like strength in depth in that division.

Orfevre did the same as a 3 year old beating the same horse 3 times.

Kizuna as I have said won a 2 horse Japanese Derby where the next 4 home haven't won a Gr1 between them before or since.

Gold Ship seems a bit in and out and Fenormeno stays 2 miles.

All in all we seem to be lacking a couple of real stars in many divisions, like Treve, to look forward to, win or lose.

*than the Japanese but things change

Pedro, won 55k on Authorized when he won the Epsom Derby with Frankie doing the steering. Would you be a fan?

FELTFAIT
That is a proper aftertime, not like my puny efforts.

Feltfair, can understand the allegiance now!
I hope 2007 was the last year you entrusted him with your hard earned....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhCG_YE1j5w

They're back!!!! Poor guys :( realised from a long way out the race was over....

^ Thanks for the youtube link.
They dressed up for their appearance this year.

Hope they're back next year in Gold Ship silks :)

Sooooo Novellist sold to the same owners as Orfevre.....gotta wonder if he really was sick Arc weekend.

I thought he was going to run in the Japan Cup and then I read that he's been retired but still going to Japan where he will stand at the Yoshida family's Shadai Stud. Amazing stuff and an interesting theory ELG, you could be right!

So 2nd year running the German Arc co-favourite/best form horse is withdrawn in the week leading up to the race under dubious circumstances only to be retired to Japan. LMAO. Should have bought Treve instead. Makes it kind of awesome that Treve p***** all over Orfevre.