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Markphisto
09 Apr 13 23:16
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Date Joined: 23 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 120 | Blogger: Markphisto's blog
Who will be top weight in this race? Most of those at the top of the weights ran at Aintree or are novices. Anyone know what is the highest rated intended runner? The fav Rival D'estruval looks to have a big chance but could be close to top weight on the day. Any thoughts?

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Replies: 93
By:
BarryM
When: 09 Apr 13 23:38
I think leave it till the 5 days are out, it's a complete guessing game at this stage. Quite a few may run after Aintree, but they won't even have decided yet.
By:
Markphisto
When: 09 Apr 13 23:52
F-4PPP    Weird Al    10        Donald McCain         158   

1U355U    Roberto Goldback11        Nicky Henderson         152

21113    Rocky Creek      7        Paul Nicholls         152

86203    Teaforthree14      9        Rebecca Curtis         151

112710    Across The Bay  9        Donald McCain         150

3-72P0    Join Together    8        Paul Nicholls         150

6-P73P    Ballabriggs      12        Donald McCain         150

0F631P    Chicago Grey     10        Gordon Elliott         149

54126P    Cannington Brook9        Colin Tizzard         148

142327    Houblon Des Obeaux 6        Venetia Williams     148   

34-222    Cappa Bleu    11        Evan Williams         147

1F223    Hadrian´s Approach 6        Nicky Henderson         147

8-6435    Rare Bob14    11        D T Hughes         146

0710/P    Silver By Nature 11        Lucinda Russell         145

133-U2    Our Mick39      7        Donald McCain         145

35U255    Hold On Julio    10        Alan King         145

F21521    Poungach    7        Paul Nicholls         144

341361    Same Difference    7        Nigel Twiston-Davies     144   

PU-071    Always Right    11        John Wade         143

2-121F    Rival D´Estruval 8        Pauline Robson             143

11611P    Lost Glory    8        Jonjo O´Neill         142

F2-110    Wyck Hill56      9        David Bridgwater     142

U1F111    Well Refreshed    9        Gary Moore             142   

P1344U    Knockara Beau    10        George Charlton         142   

6-142B    Garleton      12        Maurice Barnes         142   

B-8917    Soll            8        Jo Hughes         139   

201213    Godsmejudge    7        Alan King         139   

P1-332    Mr Moss     8        Evan Williams         138   

F321P    On Trend    7        Nick Gifford         138   

F4309    Saint Are    7        Tim Vaughan         138

3PP45P    Becauseicouldntsee 10        N F Glynn         137   

5F604    Problema Tic      7        David Pipe         137   

1F1387    Tour Des Champs    6        Nigel Twiston-Davies     136   

2P-771    Quentin Collonges 9            Henry Daly         135   

8-114P    Rose Of The Moon 8            David O´Meara             135   

341F-4    Mister Marker      9            Nicky Richards         133

23212P    Rigadin De Beauchene 8        Venetia Williams     133

P45F51    Auroras Encore    11        Sue Smith         133   

60264P    Mr Moonshine    9        Sue Smith         133
   
673116    Nuts N Bolts      7        Lucinda Russell         133

1425P    Bradley     9        Fergal O´Brien         133

22-21    Night Force    10        Brendan Powell         132   

265P0    Major Malarkey    10        Nigel Twiston-Davies     132   

334321    Big Occasion    6        David Pipe         132

5-421P    Russian War     10        Gordon Elliott         131

22P323    White Star Line    9        D T Hughes         131

65212P    Relax     8                Venetia Williams         131

222F25    Fill The Power    7        Sue Smith         130

2121F    Nodforms Violet    9        Karen McLintock         130

23P25P    Viking Blond    8        Nigel Twiston-Davies     130   

50-181    Neptune Equester10        Brian Ellison            129

241490    Quietly Fancied    9        Oliver McKiernan     129   

P1P5F    State Benefit    8        Nicky Henderson         129   

70165P    Pentiffic    10        Venetia Williams     128   

P1621P    Storm Survivor    7        Jonjo O´Neill         127   

4-F131    Monsieur Cadou    8        Tom George             126   

3-411P    Cool Operator35    10        Philip Kirby         126   


05P112    Rebeccas Choice    10        Dai Burchell         126   

131873    Lively Baron      8        Donald McCain         125

14P-53    Beneficial Reform 8        James Ewart         125

1F1F2    Isla Pearl Fisher 10        N W Alexander         124   

808313    Handy Andy      7        Colin Tizzard         123   

1-6P63    Air Force One     11        Lawney Hill         122

5318-    Gurtacrue     8        Evan Williams         122

3-P9P2    King Fontaine    10        Malcolm Jefferson     116   

3P-238    Captain Americo    11        James Ewart             115

2/P023    Quarl Ego    9        Lawney Hill         105

155-P1    Dermatologiste  10            Caroline Bailey         101
   
114208    Tarquinius    10        Gordon Elliott        

PP-00P    Sarteano    10        D T Hughes

343576    Whatuthink    11        Oliver McKiernan       

8511-P    Lion Na Bearnai 11            Thomas Gibney

81406    Sole Witness     9            C A McBratney



All

Open Account »
By:
PFtrader
When: 10 Apr 13 18:34
Weights now updated on RP following re-assessment of runners last week.

Purely guesswork on my part at this stage, but it looks to me like Auroras Encore on his new mark of 148 is likely to be top weight should he turn up as I just don't see any of those above him appearing at Ayr. However, there must be a doubt that he will take his chance off the revised mark following his exersions last weekend. That would leave Houblon Des Obeaux (148) as next likely top weight but as a 6yo novice would he take his chance? You are then probably looking at Our Mick (145) or Silver by Nature (145) who is ground dependant so a significant weight shift may be on the cards here. 

I have backed Problema Tic who ran fairly well at Aintree last weekend and who looks as though he has been laid out for this for his Scottish owners and also King Fontaine who will benefit greatly from a rise in the weights and is likely to be running here off a mark at least 10lb lower than when 3rd in the race last year.
By:
flyingbolt
When: 11 Apr 13 15:06
If Problema Tic had been "laid out" for this I doubt they would have subjected him to such a hard race last week.Having said that if he hadn't run there he would have been near the top of my list.
By:
Irish_Celtic
When: 11 Apr 13 19:00
Teaforthree out. Anybody know when the field gets narrowed down?
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 11 Apr 13 20:31
confirmation of entries/5 day decs next monday from 12pm
By:
Irish_Celtic
When: 11 Apr 13 21:05
Thanks tin.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 12 Apr 13 12:36
Problema Tic doesn't look as if he stays to me. Kings Fontaine is well handicapped on his last run here and did at least show signs of life last time. However if it's G/S or worse I would fancy the one in front to confirm the form. Good or better I'll probably have to back Kings Fontaine, provided he gets in.
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 12 Apr 13 14:57
shortlist of 3 at mo for me quentin collonges mr moss and neptune equester
By:
thefarmer
When: 12 Apr 13 15:57
Our Mick and Rival D'Estruval for me. Will be dissapointed if at least one of them doesn't go close.
By:
Facts
When: 13 Apr 13 11:49
If Always Right is back to something like his best, then he has an excellent chance of winning this.
By:
Ilnamar
When: 14 Apr 13 07:16
I like a couple a long way down the weights but I need about 40 to come out!  Am I right in saying the max field size is 24?
By:
jolly buoy
When: 14 Apr 13 08:02
Maximum number of runners =30
By:
Irish_Celtic
When: 14 Apr 13 16:22
Had a go at applying the trends to the race and the finishing order will be as follows. Wink

1 Lively Baron
2Monsieur cadou
3king fontaine
4neptune equester
5quentin collonges
6benificial reform
7mr moss

Seriously tho  who can give me the preferred ground conditions for the above horses.?
By:
Facts
When: 14 Apr 13 16:54
er - look at historical form/results of each horse ??!!
By:
Irish_Celtic
When: 14 Apr 13 17:45
Mate i just gave you the top 7 places ,you could be a bit more helpful.Laugh

Nah was just looking for horses with a known preference,i mean historical results  dont tell the whole story,most horses on that list dont actually show a preference from their results.Crazy
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 14 Apr 13 18:07
I've got Monsieur Cadou as a soft ground horse
By:
jameschildshieldwinner
When: 14 Apr 13 19:10
Given the amount of rain Ayr have had over the last few days and the amount forecast over the next few days I would be staggered if SOFT is not mentioned somewhere in the forecast despite Ayrs propensity to dry up very quickly at this time of year.
By:
jameschildshieldwinner
When: 14 Apr 13 19:11
Given the amount of rain Ayr have had over the last few days and the amount forecast over the next few days I would be staggered if SOFT is not mentioned somewhere in the forecast despite Ayrs propensity to dry up very quickly at this time of year.
By:
jameschildshieldwinner
When: 14 Apr 13 19:11
Given the amount of rain Ayr have had over the last few days and the amount forecast over the next few days I would be staggered if SOFT is not mentioned somewhere in the forecast despite Ayrs propensity to dry up very quickly at this time of year.
By:
Facts
When: 15 Apr 13 09:39
Irish_Celtic     14 Apr 13 18:45 
Mate i just gave you the top 7 places ,you could be a bit more helpful.

Nah was just looking for horses with a known preference,i mean historical results  dont tell the whole story,most horses on that list dont actually show a preference from their results.



Wont get any more information for a preference, then what they have shown in their past races to date. How else would you know? If they've not shown a preference that would be because they don't have one.
By:
Ilnamar
When: 15 Apr 13 11:37
when do we get the 5 day entries?  thought they were supposed to be out midday?
By:
BJG
When: 15 Apr 13 11:40
Auroras Encore (IRE)    11       11 5
Lion Na Bearnai (IRE)    11       11 4
Silver By Nature (GB)    11       11 2
Our Mick (GB)    7       11 2
Poungach (FR)    7       11 1
Always Right (IRE)    11       11 0
Rival d'Estruval (FR)    8       11 0
Garleton (IRE)    12       10 13
Knockara Beau (IRE)    10       10 13
Godsmejudge (IRE)    7       10 10
Mr Moss (IRE)    8       10 9
Rose of The Moon (IRE)    8       10 6
Becauseicouldntsee (IRE)    10       10 6
Quentin Collonges (FR)    9       10 6
Problema Tic (FR)    7       10 5
Tour des Champs (FR)    6       10 5
Bradley (GB)    9       10 4
Mister Marker (IRE)    9       10 4
Rigadin de Beauchene (FR)    8       10 4
Nuts N Bolts (GB)    7       10 4
Major Malarkey (IRE)    10       10 3
Big Occasion (IRE)    6       10 3
Relax (FR)    8       10 2
White Star Line (IRE)    9       10 2
Nodforms Violet (IRE)    9       10 1
Fill The Power (IRE)    7       10 1
Neptune Equester (GB)    10       10 0
Sarteano (FR)    10       9 13
Pentiffic (NZ)    10       9 12
Monsieur Cadou (FR)    8       9 11
Cool Operator (GB)    10       9 11
Rebeccas Choice (IRE)    10       9 11
Beneficial Reform (IRE)    8       9 10
Lively Baron (IRE)    8       9 10
Quietly Fancied (IRE)    9       9 9
King Fontaine (IRE)    10       9 1
Captain Americo (IRE)    11       9 0
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 15 Apr 13 11:52
yes with ground softening and weights going up 7lb as auroras encore looks set to run it has to be neptune equester for me
By:
laynplay
When: 15 Apr 13 13:02
how many can actually run in this race ?...37 at 5 day stage but only 24 ran last year.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 15 Apr 13 13:13
What are the chances of White Star Line staying this distance on pedigree? I'm no expert but Uncle Junior would seem to give hope he would and he has been staying/keeping on at the end of his races. Cloudy Too and Fruity O Rooney have given the Cheltenham form a solid look to it and think he will go close off his weight if he does stay.
By:
Irish_Celtic
When: 15 Apr 13 13:16
Ok facts thanks for your input. I believe 30 is the maximum amount of runners
By:
laynplay
When: 15 Apr 13 13:41
thanks Irish.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 15 Apr 13 13:45
Also Nuts and Bolts was staying on at the finish and is 3 from at Ayr. Is still lightly raced and may still be improving.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 15 Apr 13 13:45
3 from 4
By:
judorick
When: 15 Apr 13 14:16
Right

Lively Baron and Neptune Equester, how likely are thy to run?

Lively Baron is entered up in 3 other races. Is that in case he misses the cut?
By:
Irish_Celtic
When: 15 Apr 13 14:54
Hi judorick thanks for the reply.  Yeah guess Baron needs 4 to come out before the weekend.
By:
judorick
When: 15 Apr 13 15:12
good, well will wait and see if he runs, then will be on if he does

might get McCoy on him, he rode him last time
By:
flyingbolt
When: 15 Apr 13 16:07
McCoy ?
10st 3lb?

Laugh
By:
Facts
When: 15 Apr 13 16:17
I see The Sporting Life website racecard for The Scottish National is still in alphabetical order ( i.e not showing in handicap weight order).Such a poor site.
By:
toilettennisplayer
When: 15 Apr 13 18:47
Facts - click on OR and you have the field in weight order Happy ..... what a wonderful site Sporting Life is Wink
By:
willie the milk
When: 15 Apr 13 19:17
I like Bradley. His 2nd in October to Balthazar King looks good as does his 2nd to Monbeg Dude giving him 12lbs. MD went on to win the Welsh Nat and run in the GC. Now back on the same mark.I would like to see it drying up, but looking outside, I doubt it. Only 13ml from Ayr.
Like a few posts, Neptune Equester looks as though he could be thereabouts too
GL
By:
Facts
When: 15 Apr 13 20:41
toilettennisplayer     15 Apr 13 19:47 
Facts - click on OR and you have the field in weight order  ..... what a wonderful site Sporting Life is


er ...no you don't. Auroras Encore is out of line.Click on the weight and the correct weight order appears. Except AE's  OR is incorrect. I repeat - poor site.
By:
toilettennisplayer
When: 15 Apr 13 22:28
If you knew you could get the weight order as well as alphabetical order then what are you moaning about? Obviously makes your original comment invalid because the weight order is available with a single click. The only thing they didnt do yet is update AE's official rating by the 11 lb rise it was given, but that's evident from the weight it is allocated relative to the others.

Nothing like having a moan for the sake of having a moan .....Crazy
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