mordin at it again

Spinter Sacre's win at Cheltenham been totally overrated, the opposition were shocking for a Grade 1 race.
Can understand Mordin's thinking, Cue Card proven at the trip and beat a stronger field in the Ryannair.
Put it this way, 4/11 Sprinter and 6/1 Cue Card, odds are way out.

what were his National selections?

sea bass and sunnyhillboys

Initially narrows it down to a shortlist of 8: Cappa Bleu & Sunnyhillboy score 70 and BecauseIcouldntsee, Always Waining, Chicago Grey, On His Own, Seabass & Treacle score 65. Ends up with the SHB & SB it seems because they are the ones he fancies, doesn't give any reasoning behind dismissing Cappa Bleu, just that 65 points is the level that 9 of the last 10 winners have achieved.

cant have it that sprinter beat nothing pal

Sizing Europe (1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd) at last four festivals.

it;s another steering job that monster

I had pretty much the same short list with a couple of others added - but Seabass and SHB fail on handicapping and I have Cappa Bleu as the most likely winner with some others as back up

Always Waining and Treacle no hopers for me

Sprinter Sacre a great horse, but he put up far better performance at Sandown earlier in the season. Didn't jump that well (by his standards) at Cheltenham.
Sizing Europe an ordinary QM winner who wouldn't be in the same league as Master Minded, Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, Well Chief etc and an 11yo whose best days well behind him.
Look at the comparative times / weights with the Arkle - Sizing would have been thrashed by Simonsig and Baily Green.
Sprinter a fantsastic horse, but whereas been happy to take the short odds about him earlier in the season, they are not warranted here and will be taking on with the overpriced Cue Card / Flemenstar given they are running at their optimum trip and Sprinter yet to prove himself at it

pedro, I don't like the idea of using times from one day to the next. Both the RSA chase and the 4 mile chase were pretty slow as well. The time of the RSA chase being 6secs slower that the hcap won by Golden Chieftan (I was ecpecting 1-2 secs slower). There is also the possibility that the Arkle was faster than expected due to being run before the ground had opened up.

Anyhow I gave a 0.6s per f for chases on first day and 0.8s pf for second day chases and my figures suggest SS ran up to his best and I think the form suggests that as well.

Cue Card is a damned good horse over 2m4f though so i'm happy to sit the race out looking at the prices. But SS has to be fav.

interesting view on the ground at Cheltenham, Stevie, though I would find it pretty hard to have the second day riding slower than the first day. The hurdles track was comfortably quicker on the second day?

Would agree that Sprinter should be fav, but the forecast 4/11 is by some way too short, given the trip doubt and two proven and high class Grade 1 performers in opposition together with For Non Stop (didn't jump great at Cheltenham) putting up a very good effort here in Nov

4/11 is a great price, if you think the horse is at least a stone clear as I do

he's 20lb clear on my ratings and I had him 10 clear before he won the Arkle (approx)

think there's no danger , CC and Flemenstar in particular are nowhere near quick enough to get him off the bridle and if you remember the Ascot Chase, Captain Chris was serving it up to CC at the end - SS would be 24lb higher rated on my ratings than Captain Chris

by far the most likely outcome is that CC and Flem fold coming over 2 out with SS cantering - he might be 5 clear by then - but I prefer the scenario where he draws clear after two out with everything else walking

"20lb clear on my ratings"

Your ratings are based on his form over 2m.

The question is will he be as good over the longer trip.Your Ratings,or anyone else's are irrelevant

would be surprised if Sprinter doesn't have to come off the bridle tomorrow - and trade plenty bigger in running.
Flemenstar one of the cleanest jumpers in racing and his trainer believes a much better horse than Sizing Europe, whilst Cue Card managed to smack a couple at Cheltenham and still win easily

I hope Sprinter Sacre wins, and it's races like this where it makes me understand the sort of pressure involved in training a horse of this calibre. He's stepping up to 20f, and is racing against a very impressive Ryanair winner, and a good 20f horse in Flemenstar who travels well, yet many are saying he should win it easily and not be too troubled. This is the first to time i can remember that i just want the horse to do any job that gets it done, and returns back to the trainer. I think the odds and the evidence speak for themselves.

back to the will he stay bollox again

we had it last year when loads of total mugs were saying he 'wouldn't get up the hill' now the same idiots think he won't stay an extra 3 furlongs because he has never tried it before ignoring the fact that he has never been off the bridle, he could have gone round again at the end of the QMCC if required and he would not have blown out a candle

the horse is massively superior - how far do we think CC would beat Sizing Europe if at all?

I am a HUGE Cue Card fan but he is just not in the same league. If he forces SS to produce his best we could see a 195+ performance but I suspect CC and Flemenstar will just fold up in the last quarter mile and SS will win hard held again by 7+ lengths

not betting though, just enjoying, although i have backed Cue Card for the Gold Cup so I am not sure what I want to happen in the race with regards to next year

and the ratings are not irrelevant, they just have to carry a mental asterisk - but they provide a very strong understanding of raw ability

I have CC well clear of Flemenstar and I expect him to finish ahead of him

I have SS so far clear that he could easily run 10lb below his best so far and still win at the longer trip

but you go ahead and ignore all ratings when a horse tries a new trip, I'm sure it will stand you in good stead

It always has in the past,thanks.

Arrogant pr1ck.



and btw he has tried the trip before. He was beaten.

Spinter probably no more than 8-10lbs better than Cue Card (as in their Arkle clash).
A couple of sloppy jumps from Sprinter (unlikley, though not so foot perfect at Cheltenham last time) and almost certainly the trip will bring the pair closer together.
Don't see how 4/11 and 6/1 represents the true differential between them, when Sprinter possibly only has 4-5 lengths in hand?

I don't think any of us know how good SS is until he comes off the bridle. His defeat in the Supreme would suggest that he wouldn't find a lot when he does. However, can anyone get him off the bridle? In the old days, handicaps would eventually sort out just how superior one horse was to his comtemporaries but nowadays its far harder to judge. Interesting to me that Finian's runs tomorrow on his favoured ground. Should give the race more depth and wouldn't be surprised to see him shake a few up. Remember last year?

Don't think you can say its a daft remark before the race has taken place. If he genuinely believes what he's written
then he should be putting a monster bet on Cue Card at the present price. It won't look a daft remark if CC runs SS close or beats
him. Personally can see SS winning as he likes and by however far Geraghty wants him to win by ,within reason.

I genuinely think that Cue Card is as good a 2 1/2 miler as we've seen in some years.
And obviously Sprinter Sacre is the bomb over 2m.

But the value is clearly there in Cue Card today.
You might never back him against Sprinter again, but today's the day to test the water for sure.

I still think that Cue Card may have been almost value today (before the race). But as for Mordin's ludicrous suggestion that he should have been favourite..........