Winter Derby - Saturday

One for the flat fans on Saturday. I am toying with the idea of a big bet on Miblish after his run last time out. He finished 1/4 length behind Planteur and although that horse clearly didn't run anywhere near his best or his rating the course record was still lowered. If he reproduces that then he is the most likely winner I think.

However the handicapper was happy to leave him on a rating of 98 and he could compete in the 1m handicap on the same day off that mark, or could have run in the Lincoln Trial last weekend off that mark. He's never really outrun that rating (apart from last time it seems although the third was rated 90) and running to 98 again on Saturday isn't going to be good enough to land this.

So do we believe the clock (hard to argue with) or do we believe his life time form and official rating?

One horse I can't have is Red Cadeaux, he'll need a much stiffer test of stamina to be anywhere near his best here and has a hefty penalty to carry too.