EPSOM OAKS (2013)

Have to agree LN was a bit disappointing. At first I was inclined to put it down to them going slow early, but the ground was slowing after the first race and on viewing the video again I wouldn't say they were crawling and the pace quickened from some way out. The first 3 finished in the order I had them prior to the race and ran almost to the pound, so I'm not convinced she could be excused because of the early pace. It looks like she's not improved since her debut. Of course she might well come on a few pounds for the run, but I couldn't back her on that hope. I think she may need a bit more time to fulfil her potential. For me, Moth has definitely shown the best form so far, but it looks like being a mediocre Oaks.

You can see her being all at sea at epsom and the ribblesdale could see her running out of track before she fully gets going, the yorkshire oaks looks more like her cup of tea.

Imo she needs time and distance ,Leger could be ideal for her,as for the oaks,think they'll be going too quick for her and it will be over before she gets going.

On the clock, it was a poor performance with no redeeming feature. Other than that she has substance, the jockey was positive, she looked better the further she went. Not an Oaks bet for me, however.

She is going to improve for a trip,I like her attitude,still a baby but she has class.I think she will be ok at Epsom, she travels well and she handled Goodwood.Secret Gesture,Moth apart from that,its not a vintage Oaks field and she is trained by a master who will have her spot on at Epsom.

I would not back anything until I know for sure where Just The Judge runs next. The yard clearly know best whether she will stay but if they have not ruled the Oaks out, she is still the one I would back.

They have. Said she will go for Coronation now.

THE 2013 INVESTEC OAKS
Class 1, Group 1, £400,000 Total Prize Fund. Epsom Downs, Friday, May 31, 2013. For three-year-old fillies only. One mile & four furlongs. Weights: 9st each. Entries closed March 12, entries revealed March 14 (67 entries). Scratchings deadline noon, May 17 (14 remain). £30,000 supplementary entry stage and six-day confirmation stage May 25, final declaration stage 10.00am, May 29. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and include the racing up to and including Friday, May 16. May not include some overseas form.

Form  Horse    Owner     Trainer
16- 6  DUBAYA      Lady O'Reilly     AndyOliver IRE
(5)(3)-(2)(1)2 GERTRUDE VERSED  Rachel Hood     John Gosden
1-1    LIBER NAUTICUS (IRE)  Ballymacoll Stud    Sir Michael Stoute
1-3  MADAME DEFARGE (IRE) Bill Gredley     Michael Bell
540-(5)10  MASARAH (IRE)  Mohammed Al Nabouda   Clive Brittain
24423-2  MISS YOU TOO  Andrew Whitlock     David Simcock
53-13  MOTH (IRE)   Sue Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O'Brien IRE
21    PLANETE BLEUE (IRE)  Ecurie Wildenstein       Francis-Henri Graffard FR
0(1)12-0  ROZ    Mary-Anne Parker    Harry Dunlop
6-21   SAY (IRE)   Derrick Smith, Sue Magnier, Michael Tabor Aidan O'Brien IRE
21-1  SECRET GESTURE  Newsells Park Stud    Ralph Beckett
1021-35  SNOW QUEEN (IRE)  Diane Nagle/Sue Magnier   Aidan O'Brien IRE
3(1)-1   TALENT   J L Rowsell & Mark Dixon   Ralph Beckett
41-  THE LARK   Lady Bamford    Michael Bell

14 entries go foward
4 Irish-trained
1 French-trained

THE FOLLOWING HORSES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED:
A STAR IS BORN (IRE),ALTA LILEA (IRE), AMARANTINE (FR), AULD ALLIANCE (IRE), BONANZA CREEK (IRE), CERTIFY (USA), COCKTAIL QUEEN (IRE), COOLIBAH (IRE), CUSHION, DISCERNABLE, ENAITCH (IRE), EXOTIC (IRE), FILIA REGINA,GREAT TIMING (USA), HALF MOON (IRE),  HEROINE REQUIRED (FR), HINT OF A TINT (IRE), HOLD ON TIGHT (IRE), HOT SNAP, INDIGO LADY,  JUST THE JUDGE (IRE), LADY NOUF,  LANANSAAK (IRE), LOVELY PASS (IRE), MAGIC OF REALITY (FR), MAGICAL DREAM (IRE), MUSIC CHART (USA), MUTHMERA (USA), NICKELS AND DIMES (IRE), NUR JAHAN (IRE), ORPHA,  OUR OBSESSION (IRE), PERMEATE, PHIZ (GER),  POWER OF LIGHT (IRE), PREMIUM, PURR ALONG, RASMEYAA (IRE), REGAL SILK,  SCINTILLULA (IRE), SHALWA, SHURUQ (USA), SINGERSONGWRITER, SOHO DANCER, STORM (IRE),  TARANA (IRE), THE GOLD CHEONGSAM (IRE), THOUGH (IRE), VANITY RULES, VELVET RIBBON (IRE), VENUS DE MILO (IRE), VICKSBURG, WOODLAND ARIA

When is the next stage for subs, please?
Anybody know?

THE 2013 INVESTEC OAKS
Class 1, Group 1, £400,000 Total Prize Fund. Epsom Downs, Friday, May 31, 2013. For three-year-old fillies only. One mile & four furlongs. Weights: 9st each. Entries closed March 12, entries revealed March 14 (67 entries). Scratchings deadline noon, May 17 (14 remain). £30,000 supplementary entry stage and six-day confirmation stage May 25, final declaration stage 10.00am, May 29. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and include the racing up to and including Friday, May 16. May not include some overseas form.

Hopefully they won't supplement Alive Alive Oh, otherwise whoever has taken an ante-post position in this race which doesn't include her, is fcuk-d.

Thanks VERY much TURNIP.

no problem bazzar

My concern about Moth is what kind of race she has in the Irish 1000. When O'Brien ran Shahtoush there after the Guineas she never ran her race, for one reason or another, so she was still relatively fresh for the Oaks. Imagine only really came to peak form there before winning the Oaks the following weekend. If Moth has a hard race it will be some achievement if she can keep her form for the Oaks after running so well in 3 races in such a short space of time.

2 races

figgis,is the gap this year much shorter than previous yrs  ?

Is she definitely running in the Irish Guineas? This pleases me greatly tbh!

TT, I'm sure it was the same for Imagine, not sure about Shahtoush.

thanks figgis,much appreciated

Mind playing tricks, just had a check and it was 12 days gap for both Imagine and Shahtoush, would only be 5 days this year. I thought Moth was intended for the Curragh but seems unlikely they'd try to take in both races.

With just 5 days between races i'd be amazed if they ran in both. Is there a chance she may not run at Epsom given the Irish Guineas does not look particularly strong? The Curragh will suit her better than Newmarket!

figgis,ok gotcha,yeah can't see them doing both this year,will defo split them up imo.

She is 7/2 on here for Epsom Teets!

yeah i know but they have 3 innit,moth,say and snow queen in the oaks,they won't run all of them,one or maybe two will go guineas,say is the only defo for the oaks

Shahtoush 25/1 day of race

what about the horse who finished 2nd to Alive Alive Oh with a penalty? Magic something..

Magical Dream was taken out of the Oaks at the forfeit stage, sint.  In any case, she was a bit disappointing on that comeback start behind Alive Alive Oh and is not a guaranteed stayer (imo).
Liber Nauticus is very weak on here (just matched at 10, with no money queuing to back her).  Maybe Stoute is thinking of swerving Epsom in favour of a crack at the Ribblesdale and/or Irish Oaks?

It was matched to me but only for a penny,they just have not confirmed she goes for the oaks at the moment

The 11/4 about Secret Gesture is drying up, generally now 5/2.  Just matched on here at 3.70.  With slight doubts about the participation of both Moth and Liber Nauticus, there is scope for the price to shorten up further.  6/1 straight after the Lingfield Oaks Trial was a steal!

Yes helped myself to some of that straight after the race,Lads are not often that generous.

Keep the faith in ROZ boys. Have a sneaky feeling will get 3rd on the line.

Liber Nauticus on the drift - any news on this?

Few of these at the head of the market could knacker themselves out in the Irish 1000 gns and not run Friday week. Must be value somewhere. One consolation is ROZ started last year with a big fat 0 and optimistically might be a 00000 this year but sense something is going on around here. OI OI. If you watch it on x 30 might happen again. Need some ammo.

Looks like Liber is going backwards.

its not a liquid market--probably someone has just taken a strong position against it. also, with low  liquidy, its very easy to manipulate market

Apparently O'Brien announced last week that Moth misses the Curragh, I completely missed that news.

SECRET GESTURE
B f Galileo - Shastye.
Potentially top class middle distance filly who won second and final start last season in mile maiden at Newbury. Impressive seven-length winner of 11 furlong listed Oaks Trial at Lingfield May 11 beating Miss You Too. Debut mark of 111.
"Lingfield was the performance we'd hoped to see because we had been talking her down rather than up for some time. Always thought she was pretty smart and she showed it on a decent stage. If she gets to Epsom healthy and in one piece I think she'll handle the track, ground and the whole jamboree. She doesn't seem to have a hole in her although there isn't much of her so she needs nourishment not punishment. Doesn't get much work."

TALENT
Ch f New Approach - Prowess.
Won final of two starts last season over seven at Kempton in September. Rated 82 and stayed on well to beat Lady Nouf half a length in ten furlong listed at Newmarket May 5. Now 96.
"Really improved for Newmarket and came out of the race very well. I'm hopeful that she'll run very well, I think she'll handle track and ground, whatever it might be. A tough filly, puts it all in."

“We've decided Moth will head for Epsom and that we will give the Irish Guineas a miss with her. We're also looking at running Say in the Oaks."

Moth has been left in the irish guineas according to sporting life today:

Aidan O'Brien's Moth, who caught the eye when running on into third at Newmarket and has been strongly fancied for the Oaks at Epsom, is still in the shake-up for the Guineas.

I am going to be dutching Moth and Banoffee as the form of both their trials has worked out nicely

sure one will be involved in the finish

Let it be Moth!

Qatar Racing Ltd have bought into Oaks favourite Secret Gesture.

So Jamie Spencer will presumably take the ride. Hmm. Ah well, he won on Sariska, I suppose.

Nope - Crowley keeps the ride

There is no filly in this field which to my eyes looks like a G1 filly in the making and that includes Secret Gesture. The ground went quickly at Lingfield as a result of torrential rain ( soaked I was) and the ratings on the day are wholly unreliable. Grant you, she looked the part visually, but for me the whole race has to be left alone. I won't be surprised by a surprise (Talent?).

Secret Gesture won the Oaks trial faster than Nevis won the Derby trial although half an hour of torrential rain might account for that. The trouble is we've not seen Nevis out since. Come to think of it, only Whippy Cream has run again from either trial.

Sandown, don't you think the Oaks is the easiest Classic to win on figures? The best in the last 10 years were Alexandrova and Ouija Board, but Moth has already run close to the standard of the other 8.

Actually she's run better than a few of them too.

had a small ew bet on Madame Defarge at 33s who to my eye would probably have won the Pretty Polly but for her unwillingness to go down the far side rail.Will probably leave it at that as a betting heat.

She was very green which is a worry but I believe she galloped on the track at Breakfast with the Stars.

Other than that, agree with Sandown, very little form to go on and nothing particularly striking apart from Secret Gesture visually - would be great for racing if a superstar filly did emerge who could take on the colts in the big races later in the season.

Otherwise, it's back to cheering on Snow Fairy.

Agree there's nothing in here to make anyone scared and I'm expecting The Lark to post a seriously improved display on Friday.

Figgis

I have nothing that suggests there is an exceptional filly in the field. As for Moth, well not really. Nothing on overall time and certainly nothing on sectionals.I don't know how to rate the Lingfield form because of the rapidly changing conditions. If you had been there you would know what I mean.The Stoute filly interested me as a 2yr old but her York run didn't inspire. So, as they say on Dragons Den, "I'm out."

Sandown, I don't believe it takes an exceptional filly to win an average Oaks, a quick look through past winners shows this, with a few notable exceptions. Most of the better fillies have no chance of staying the trip, find a reasonably decent one that does and you have a likely winner. This year's 1000 has been unjustly rated as worse than average, certainly from a time angle it was well up to standard, with only Ghanaati and Finsceal Beo achieving higher in the last 10 years. Moth's form is already up to standard of an ordinary Oaks winner. I expected a bit more from Stoute's filly after rating her debut win quite highly, she didn't improve much on that, though, at York, it was still an ok effort, I have her only 3lbs lower than Moth, but the performance didn't strike me as one which she'd be immediately improving on. I think Secret Gesture was flattered and I have her 7lbs below Moth. She did appear to do it easily and could possibly be better than the bare form but I couldn't back her on that.

I should have said I have Liber Nauticus only 2lbs lower than Moth, so it would be foolish to be over confident about Moth with such a small advantage, LN could bridge the gap, I was more taken with O'Brien's filly though, she's not exactly a cert but I think she's the most likely winner.

Figgis

I understand your reasoning and wouldn't argue too much with it. I just don't think that there is much value in the prices of the main contenders to make it worthwhile to get involved. Good luck, anyway.

Sandown

Yes, I agree, it wouldn't exactly be the best value bet I've ever made and I've not actually had a bet yet. I'm taking Secret Gesture out of the calculations, though, so I have it as a 2 horse race. Not saying SG can't win but I'm happy to let her win without me backing her. I was hoping for a Ouija Board type rating from one of the trials, but without that type of quality filly in the field then any winner would be no huge surprise, especially if the jockeys allow a repeat of the last 2 farcical runnings.

Miss You Too

The favourite is Secret Gesture, who won its last race ahead of Miss You Too in 2nd.  If you can ignore the winning margin, and the apparent ease, and look at how my Miss You Too battled hard for her head at the back of the field (Youtube), then went through the field and led, and held on for second, you will see she might have a chance in the Oaks if she settles.  She might not need to settle.  She might do a Jet Ski Lady and lead all the way.
Her sire is Montjeu, sire of four of the last eight Derby winners.  Her damsire, Peintre Celebre (although imo not a big stamina influence), won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.  Also on the dam side of her pedigree: Green Dancer: sire of Suave Dancer (French Derby and Arc); damsire of Epsom Derby winner Quest For Fame.  Back another step on the dam side is the US sire Nashua, winner of the Preakness, Belmont, and 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.  There is a lot of quality in her pedigree.  Perhaps she hasn't inherited the good stuff.

I have a small bet on Miss You Too at 160+

I took the 160, 120, 100.
Then I had €0.15 at 3.5 which made Miss You Too the Oaks favourite on Betfair, lower than Secret Gesture at 3.75.

Gertrude Versed for me in a race that is more open than the betting suggests. Top connections who are getting closer to winning an Oaks, stays well, went too soon at Chester and is rapidly on the upgrade. Looks overpriced at 33s or so.

Racing Post ‏@RacingPost 24s
Snow Queen the only withdrawal as 11 declared for Oaks on Friday topped by Secret Gesture. Joseph O'Brien rides Moth.

NO. DRAW    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
15     11    Banoffee23    3    9-0    Hughie Morrison60    Kieren Fallon     93    101    107
210    53-212    Gertrude Versed23    3    9-0    John Gosden70    William Buick     89    98    105
37     1-1    Liber Nauticus16    3    9-0    Sir Michael Stoute73    Ryan Moore     99    102    119
411     1-3    Madame Defarge26    3    9-0    Michael Bell64    Tom Queally     90    92    110
58     4423-2    Miss You Too20 h    3    9-0    David Simcock58    Ian Mongan     93    104    107
62     53-13    Moth26    3    9-0    A P O´Brien67    Joseph O'Brien     107    107    124
79     0112-0    Roz26    3    9-0    Harry Dunlop67    Johnny Murtagh     104    92    116
84     6-21    Say21      3    9-0    A P O´Brien67    Seamie Heffernan     92    70    100
91     21-1    Secret Gesture20    3    9-0    Ralph Beckett47    Jim Crowley     111    81    123
103     31-1    Talent26    3    9-0    Ralph Beckett47    Richard Hughes     96    90    116
116     41-3    The Lark14    3    9-0    Michael Bell64    Jamie Spencer     93    96    109

This is probably more open than it looks. Trials on generally soft ground can be misleading, and probably two of the three favourites are shorter than they should be, owing to their trainers' reputations.

Roz is generally 33/1 but was 100/1 yesterday. Has Tom Segal been sighted lurking behind bushes at the Dunlop gallops?

The new plan is to oppose the first three in the betting and scatter some money amongst those rags I think will stay.

Stall 1

there seems to be an awful lot of guys looking for an angle on this race, but, from what i've seen it's staring them right in the face. cheers.

Call me biased but I really don't see what's wrong with Secret Gesture. The only other horse i'd back is Banoffee who was far more impressive than the distance she won last time out at Chester.

I'm having another look at Liber Nauticus -- the consensus is she is a big old boat who will not handle Epsom but she won on her debut at Goodwood, which is hardly God's billiard table.

Oaks & Derby preview
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2013/2013_epsom_derby-oaks_preview.htm

1 secret gesture
2 moth
3 talent
cheers.

This rain has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons.

While waiting for the off these are my distance calculations for the Oaks

Filly___________My Calc___Sire____________RP Sire__Damsire_______RP Sire__RP Calc

BANOFEE____________9.4____Hurricane Run_____10.7___Anabaa___________8.3_____9.9
GERTRUDE VERSED____8.9____Manduro___________10.6___Polar Falcon_____8.5_____9.9
LIBER NAUTICUS____10.4____Azamour___________10.5___Daylami_________11.6____10.9
MADAME DEFARGE_____9.7____Motivator_________10.8___Zafonic__________8.7____10.1
MISS YOU TOO______10.7____Montjeu___________11.7___Peintre Celebre_10.5____11.3
MOTH______________10.0____Galileo___________11.1___Seattle Slew_____8.9____10.4
ROZ________________9.1____Teofilo___________10.7___Anabaa___________8.3_____9.9
SAY_______________10.6____Galileo___________11.1___Dynaformer______11.4____11.2
SECRET GESTURE____10.1____Galileo___________11.1___Danehill_________9.2____10.5
TALENT____________10.4____New Approach_______9.3___Peintre Celebre_10.5_____9.7
THE LARK___________8.9____Pivotal____________7.8___In The Wings____11.8_____9.1

My Calc is my calculation of the average winning distances of the sire, dam's sire, dam's dam's sire, weighted 1.0, 0.5, 0.25.  Individual sire AWDs (= my decision) from various sources.
RP Calc is a calculation of the [(RP Sire AWD X 1) (sire) + (RP Sire AWD (dam's sire) X 0.5)] / 1.5.
What I do is give more weight to the sire's AWD (100%), and 50% to the 2nd generation sire, (and 25% to the 3rd gen sire).

Newer sires like New Approach might not have enough runners (or older runner).  This might give dodgy AWD figures.
US sires like Seattle Slew might also give dodgy AWS stats as they have had few runners over here.

Banoffee for me. I remember watching the race and thinking he was in all sorts of trouble, but as soon as she got in to clear air she took off. I think she's the each way play in the race.

Banoffee for me. I remember watching the race and thinking he was in all sorts of trouble, but as soon as she got in to clear air she took off. I think she's the each way play in the race.

as I said, dutched Moth and Banoffee, their trials look the strongest

Had a flutter on Moth.

Secret Gesture a worthy favourite, Moth the best form (although I don't think she'll stay) but I'm sticking with Liber Nauticus.

secret gesture is a false fav in my book, I have her 5th in my ratings and there is every prospect she won't even place

moth to fly home for me.

Taken another look at this race through fresh eyes and I think that I have been guilty of overlooking the obvious which is that Secret Gesture really may be as good as she looked at Lingfield. The rain through the day makes time ratings very difficult to be confident about but what I can be confident about is how the horse finished the race. Despite the ground going soft, she covered the last 3f in under 36.0 which is pretty fast even on good ground, but she did it seemingly without coming off the bridle. She had bags in reserve. As for the ground, well the ground will not be as slow toady and looking at her action, she should be even better on better ground. No doubts about the trip given her pedigree and if she can handle Lingfield she can handle Epsom.What's more, the horse who finshed 11 lgtns behind her managed to come 3rd in the G2 Italian Oaks. At £150,000 to the winner and £36,000 to the 3rd (Secret Gesture picked up £22,000 at lingfield for winning)that's form due some respect.

Of the others, well neither Moth not Lieber Nauticus appeal on the figures at all and I would prefer Talent and Banoffee as dangers.

judorick 31 May 13 10:21 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 15,230 | Blogger: judorick's blog
secret gesture is a false fav in my book, I have her 5th in my ratings and there is every prospect she won't even place

who are the 4 you have above her?

I still think it's between Moth and Liber Nauticus. Can't be massively confident as I don't have a great deal between them but I've backed Moth and included her in a double with BOM.

moth 107
liber 102
banoffee 101 p
getrude versed 98
secret gesture 96 including upgrade for easy win, 8th without the upgrade

9/4 looks very short

Be very surprised if the winner does not come from the 1st 3 in the betting.
Only having a small interest in the race for ££.
Moth to win, & place bet on Liber.
Gd luck all.

would never have picked that.

Me neither, even though she was possibly unexposed I would never have backed her. No excuses for Moth and SG ran better than I expected, well done winners.

Backed Secret Gesture but I didn't even have a saver on Talent!

There is no filly in this field which to my eyes looks like a G1 filly in the making and that includes Secret Gesture. The ground went quickly at Lingfield as a result of torrential rain ( soaked I was) and the ratings on the day are wholly unreliable. Grant you, she looked the part visually, but for me the whole race has to be left alone. I won't be surprised by a surprise (Talent?).

Initial time rating is that that was a moderate race

Backed 3 this year inc Secret Gesture and The Lark, last year I backed Sirocco Star and The Fugue also 2nd and 3rd.

Yes, Sandown, wondered if you'd had a few quid on. Like you say, can only be a preliminary rating but looks poor. I'd say a bit better than the previous 2 runnings (could hardly be worse really), but gotta go back to Eswarah to find another as poor. It's getting to be a bit of a disappointing race quality wise, not that backers at that price will be too bothered about that

Bit more confident after that last race, I make it that even Secret Gesture in finishing 2nd ran slower than last time. Odd as it certainly didn't look like an overall slowly run affair and looking at where the winner came from I doubt it was. Strange race.

Simon Rowlands ‏@Rowleyfile 1h
Remarkably slow closing sectional in The Oaks.

Thanks TT, not had a proper review of the race but yeah I would've thought that was the case. Looks like a lot of runners, including the second, didn't quite run to form.

yeah will be interesting to see how it pans out in future races,think a few didn't run to form or handle the track tbh.

Don't think there were any excuses for anything in the race imo.Winner won fair and square. Just didn't look a great renewal.

Looks to me like they went too strong a pace, thereby favouring those who came from rear.

did look on paper a poor oaks and proved to be .I know what i will be doing with  those who ran in this race for the rest of the season

Winner looked quite good I thought. She pounded them in the end.

Not sure I'd want to back any of them next time, although I do think some behind will do better than that later on, I'll be opposing the winner if she's priced up like a good winner.

They did seem to go a bit to hard from the off, especially on g/s ground, which did rather set things up for the held-up horses. The winner did travel well & ran out a ready winner.
There did not look to be any hard luck stories having viewed the race a few times, apart from "Frank" Spencer finding his normal trouble in-running on the 3rd (The Lark).
Don't think Moth saw the trip out & 10f will be her trip & the Stoute filly needs more time & a more galloping track, prob not see the very best of her till next year.

The winner found cover all the way through the race, in contrast the winners stable mate had to use up reserves of stamina at several stages and I think She showed real guts in holding on for second in the end. Secret Gesture comes out of the race the best horse in my opinion, sprinted to get a position at the start, started her top speed early to hold her position, excelerated again to go for the gap then cruised to a length and half lead looking like the winner until the stablemate appeared. Epsom like no other course causes this type of thing regularly.

Do you think the draw cost her then Sisyphus?