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23 Feb 13 12:20
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Date Joined: 12 Jul 07
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If I were to be wanting to back one of Aidan's for this years Oaks which one would it be please? Ballydoyle you looking in?

Can you justify the rationale for your selections. Is Figgis, James P or Sint about anywhere otherwise known as the Brains Trust?

By the way I backed that little beauty last year. Watched it on fast forward x30 when I got home. YIPPEE.

What has caught your eye? Any time guru's other than the irrepressible Figgis?

Thank - you.

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Replies: 150
By:
DMCK
When: 25 Feb 13 09:21
i dont think AOB has one lurking away like last year when he had a few. i dont think he has anything in the shape of Was who was reported to be doing nothing but below average work at home but lit up on the racecourse under joe on 1st outing in Curragh (most likely picked as the price tag and pedigree).

overall the oaks picture is very murky and i wouldnt be trying to get involved until i see a few trials.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 25 Feb 13 19:42
Wss strange DM because you never thought or got impression was their No 1 however visibly (and why i backed her) was mightily impressive to the eye on that run then got mullered I understand on the gallops by another horse. I was so not confident watched it on x30 when I got home and kept saying to my wife it's got a chance, it's got a chance and the rest is history. Did nothing else of significance after and won probably a smch as I have ever done in single bets but you can at loony odds like 80, 85 and 90 (was a lot bigger but others snapped them up and I thought would be throwing other good money away). Love a good AP bet and probably best was Lady Carla aftrer it won at Yarmouth (think it was .. either there or Leicester and broke the clock in it's only 2yo run) and worst was sleepytime (think that was what it was called) went in for my £20 ew (lot of money for me then) and asked for double price for gns and Oaks and told 200/1 and got plain greedy.
By:
DMCK
When: 26 Feb 13 13:26
yeah Was had been touted before Easter as having a great chance in the Oaks. I was very much in the Wading camp at that stage but had something on WAS. Id be impressed right now if someone was able to put a horse to even place in the Oaks.
By:
roobuck
When: 26 Feb 13 14:46
I wouldn't dream of having a single on the Oaks yet, but chose Liber Nauticus for my classic L15.

Very likely that the winner has yet to see a racecourse or is a once raced maiden still. Therefore impossible to know if Ballydole have anything, but at this stage I would suggest not. Their entry for the Irish version of this that have raced is hardly inspiring
By:
sj
When: 23 Mar 13 08:37
think Tasaday could make up into a decent middle distance filly,but looking at the family she probably would need some cut in the ground.
By:
BJG
When: 16 Apr 13 10:12
Liber Nauticus must av worked like Pegasus yest/today
By:
roobuck
When: 16 Apr 13 10:27
I wish I had backed her in a single now as I would be trading for sure - utterly ridiculous
By:
DMCK
When: 16 Apr 13 10:31
i wouldnt be backing anything unless i had a connection! be amazed if Stoute did the Epsom double with just 2yr old  maiden winners, but thats his way isnt it!

Scintillula is my little wager on the Oaks even after yesterday, its a high class family and she didnt exactly like the ground
By:
sintonian
When: 16 Apr 13 18:30
Ralph Beckett has one laden with stamina too but I agree with Roo I would not touch this race yet, far too early.
By:
sintonian
When: 16 Apr 13 18:33
Secret Gesture is Beckett's one.
By:
Paddy Hair
When: 18 Apr 13 00:58
Sintonian,do you that for sure i have had a small interest on Hold on Tight from the same stable. Hernando out of a Swain mare out to stay at least the Oaks trip.
By:
sintonian
When: 22 Apr 13 11:43
An educated guess Paddy.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 22 Apr 13 21:24
Well if they think Moth is worth supplementing for the 1000 Guineas she would be an interesting Oaks contender.

Her pedigree has 12 furlongs written all over it and winning on good ground like she did in her maiden over 7 furlongs makes her very interesting for the Oaks imo. She looks sure to improve for a trip and she is already looking quite useful.
By:
sintonian
When: 08 May 13 10:54
7/2 looks skinny though imo.

Now that plans have been confirmed I have backed Secret Gesture as per my previous post. I have missed the 25/1, but will happily take 20/1. I just hope they do not decide to supplement Alive Alive Oh.

Beckett has confirmed SG will run at Epsom regardless of what happens in the Lingfield Oaks trial, within reason. He also said his other horse is likely to go who won the Pretty Polly at Newmarket. I like SG though as she is by Galileo and out of a listed place mare. Form of her maiden behind Lady Nouf looks decent given how Haggas rates his filly.
By:
sintonian
When: 08 May 13 11:00
Why is there no place market for the Oaks on here when there is for the Derby?
By:
sintonian
When: 08 May 13 14:34
Banoffee to be supplemented. Looked strong at the finish.
By:
turnip turns
When: 08 May 13 15:06
Banoffee @20/1 with h i l l s e/w taken Tongue Out
By:
sintonian
When: 09 May 13 17:31
Secret Gesture been put in as a 5/6 chance by PP to win the trial this weekend.
By:
jamesp
When: 10 May 13 07:34
The Cheshire Oaks looked a really poor race this year and I'll be surprised if Banoffee will play a prominent role at Epsom.  Tomorrow's Lingfield Oaks Trial looks an equally weak contest and Secret Gesture will need to win it very easily if she's to be taken seriously as a possible Oaks winner.  Moth has run the best trial so far, but 7/2 is a bit skinny at this stage.  Liber Nauticus is a terrible price too.  Alive Alive Oh would be very interesting if they decide to supplement her.
By:
BJG
When: 10 May 13 07:43
Alive Alive Oh is very unlikely to be going to Epsom


Irish Oaks is the main target


"I'd imagine not. I'm not ruling it in or out but we decided not to enter her for the race earlier in the year. I don't want to rule anything in or out, but it's definitely unlikely.

"The Irish Oaks is a target and before that there are races like the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh and the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, so we'll see. There are plenty of options."
By:
turnip turns
When: 10 May 13 09:44
jamesp     10 May 13 08:34 
The Cheshire Oaks looked a really poor race this year and I'll be surprised if Banoffee will play a prominent role at Epsom

Respect your opinion jamesp and you maybe right about the race,but there's alot more to come from Banoffee  and i for one will be amazed if she doesn't go close in the oaks.
By:
lobster luck
When: 10 May 13 12:28
I think anyone would be taken with Banoffee and there should be more to come and has place chances imo.  Jamesp looked at value in the context of Liber Nauticus which is a good point - her price is silly and while it is easy to associate her stablemate, Telescope's price with over hype in the media, the same cannot be said for her.  I am on at bigger prices and have been looking for updates but there have been very few and those I have seen are not really bullish.  Her maiden win yelled mile and a half and although i'm no time expert I believe her effort was ok/good. A note of caution must be that she has only had one run; I was expecting the listed race at Newbury to be taken in en route to the Musidora (ala Islington)- she will do for me.
By:
sintonian
When: 10 May 13 13:40
I don't see how you can differentiate between Liber & Telescope tbh. They are both appalling prices.
By:
lobster luck
When: 10 May 13 15:15
Wasn't trying to say one is good and one isn't; just that one is more explainable than the other.  Antepost is about the price you get when you place your bet and I am happy with my prices but agree they both represent no value now.
By:
sintonian
When: 10 May 13 17:55
How though Lobster? Why should one be shorter than the other?
By:
lobster luck
When: 10 May 13 18:17
Just that one has had every gallop in the press and been hyped and the other has hardly been mentioned.  There will be plenty of people that have jumped on the telescope bandwagon giving some rationale for its price contracting but it is hard to fathom the same for liber nauticus but they are similar prices.  Reasoning could well be the oaks has always had less depth I suppose.  Just my take on it.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 May 13 10:05
Ok fair dos. Good luck with your punt. Look forward to seeing her in the Musiodora next week, ditto for Telescope in the Dante.
By:
jamesp
When: 11 May 13 14:09
Nice one, sint Grin.  I said that Secret Gesture would need to win very easily today against poor opposition to be considered a serious Oaks contender; well, she did win very easily and she must now be a serious candidate for Epsom.  I hadn't backed anything antepost for the Oaks before today but I was happy to take the post-race 6/1, with a view to laying off nearer the race.  I think 6/1 is a very fair price now.  Well done sint on spotting her at 20s!
By:
sintonian
When: 11 May 13 15:09
cheers James. It's about the only thing I have got right so far this flat season. I think she is an eachway bet to nothing at 6 & 5/1. Would be very surprised if there are three horses in this race to beat her.

Moth is a shocking price. If it were her first run of the season in the Guineas then maybe I could understand it, but she was race in that race, and afterwards JOB said something along the lines of needing a flatter track.

Looking beyond the Oaks, I would not be surprised of Secret Gesture also ran in the St.Leger like Look Here did. She'll get the trip standing on her head.
By:
Ramruma
When: 11 May 13 15:40
Secret Gesture won impressively (and +1 @sintonian re the St Leger). It is just a shame that the rain will make it hard for the speed figure boys to tell us how fast she ran.
By:
Figgis
When: 11 May 13 23:43
The rain could've made it tricky, but as the other races were all well run I didn't find it too difficult. She comes up short for me. It looked a poor race beforehand, the winner was a class apart but I believe she was flattered due to the others not handling the ground and not staying. She couldn't have done it any easier so of course she might be better than the bare form, but I reckon she'll have to be in order to win an average Oaks. Obviously those who backed her before the race have done well but I couldn't be backing her now.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 12 May 13 00:15
It's hard to work out the value of the form and maybe she didn't beat that much.  So on one hand you have an untested filly with a big reputation who has actually achieved not much on the book.

On the other hand there are a number of positives.

1. She certainly will stay the trip
2. She has been held in high regard and they obviously think a lot of her
3. She has just won an Oaks trial by miles without ever coming off the bit
4. She is bred to be very good with loads of class on both sides of her pedigree.
5 . She will clearly act well at Epsom.

I think she will be very hard to keep out of the frame at Epsom and has a fair chance of winning. 6/1 was too long post race and I am not surprised that this price went fairly smartly. 7/2 may just be a bit short.
By:
Figgis
When: 12 May 13 00:17
If this year's Oaks is allowed to be run as unsatisfactorily as the last two runnings then anything could happen.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 12 May 13 00:27
If I owned the Becket filly I would make sure of a decent pace even if it meant making the running. She would lack enough real pace to be effective in a slowly run tactical affair. Good luck figgis anyhow.

I am hopeful Liber Nauticus will prove a good candidate atYork next week myself as I rather went overboard at 20's last year for some reason.
By:
Figgis
When: 12 May 13 00:42
Liber Nauticus looks the filly most likely to, cryoftruth, well done on the price. She's the kind of lightly raced filly I used to back ante post for the race myself, such as Lady Carla and Moonshell. Can't remember the last time I had a pre-season bet on the Oaks, though, and I unwisely decided to leave LN alone, even though I was impressed with the debut. If she's gone the right way she'll probably be hard to beat.
By:
Paddy Hair
When: 12 May 13 06:21
Great shout Sintonian, good luck with your bet.
By:
turnip turns
When: 13 May 13 11:07
Racing Post ‏@RacingPost 4m
Hot Snap, as short as 12-1 for the Investec Oaks, has been taken out of the race.
By:
Ramruma
When: 13 May 13 11:55
Thanks, turnip turns. She was on my shortlist of fillies to look at before Sir Tom ruins the price in Tuesday's RP.
By:
sintonian
When: 13 May 13 13:03
Secret Gesture top price 4/1 now. Interesting the trainer said she had only done one serious piece of work before that trial and has still yet to come in her coat. One to beat? I think so tbh. Just hope she doesn't get stall 1,2 or 3 as it certainly cost The Fugue victory last year.
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