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Open letter to Graham Wylie
Open letter to Graham Wylie
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Ruby gave TB a shocking ride in the Hennessy imo.
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Don't think it was a bad ride its just the way the horse runs these days, out the back, hits one or two fences and if he isn't too far back stays on strong. Won't get away with it in a Gold Cup but could see it running on past beaten horses for 4th/3rd or maybe even 2nd on a good day.
Think it has a decent chance in World Hurdle, will certainly start a much shorter price than it would in the Gold cup which in my view says that the world hurdle is the best option - esp if his main target is the National |
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Newbury and Cheltenham totally different. Every chance BW will stay the gold cup trip at Cheltenham at championship pace but it isn't guaranteed. It is guaranteed with Tidal Bay.
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Look on ATR website on what Jefferson says about Cape Tribulation. Exactly the same for TB and he is a far better horse
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Can only see Bobs Worth relishing the trip but all about opinions, the fact it will be run at championship pace is the reason I don't Tidal Bay being good enough to win, it just doesn't jump well enough and it will hit one or two which will cost it. I love the horse but it just is not the same as the one that didn't touch a twig in the arkle, it still has the engine but has become lazy at its fences imo
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Eeternaloptimist 12 Feb 13 00:42 Joined: 28 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 16,217 | Blogger: Eeternaloptimist's blog
sintonian The bottom line is that Tidal beat the best of the Irish in a race not run to drag the stamina out of the runners, over a flattish course The Lexus brought stamina to the fore. Ruby said the horse was struggling to go with the leaders turning out of the back but that pleased him as it meant they were going a good clip and stamina would come into play. By the way, it's a hell of a rise from the back straight to the winning post there, an extremely stiff finish and anything but flat. |
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hi facts
On what basis(considering his runs/form this season - since being with PN) do you draw this conclusion ? i havnt said anything regarding his form fwiw i think its top notch, since being with nicholls his runs have been hurdle chase chase hurdle chase hurdle chase chase then we have hurdle WH and chase GN, its just a conclusion i have come to, just my opinion mate normally when we see chasers go hurdling its normally to protect a handicap mark, but that cant be said about TB |
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^
ok - get your point. Runs in WH then wins the GN it is then  ! |
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I'd be against him in the WH but thought he was a dangerous outsider in the GC. I'm not sure being held up is a trend of national winners but will probabl end up backing him anyway.
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it worked for neptune collonges last year
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Well, there we go. Nichols has taken him out of the Gold Cup this morn ing so no room for debate now. Also says he might miss Cheltenham altogether. Which in view of what Phil Smith has done is perhaps understandable. If he gets round at Aintree, he wins.
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agreed.
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Been looking at Tidal Bay's form and I think we may be doing Howard Johnson a disservice. He had some bits of great form under him, if anything it was always good ground he disappointed on. Apart from the arkle of course. That could be a worry come grand national day.
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I'd love TB to win any of the 3 races that were being discussed, although I do think its short sighted to pull him out of the Gold Cup. The thing that irks me is the near 100% focus on the Grand National. Wylie could well have the first 3 in the market for the race with PdB and On His Own alongside TB, and maybe with the Prize Money on offer, Paul Nichols has a single minded on winning the trainers Championship, and this is his most likely route to getting there. Both owner/trainer motivations are understandable but I'm just disappointed that the focus appears to be 100% on the National.
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Goldcupwinner - TB always used to prefer good ground when he was younger. Even now I don't think he has any problem with it as such, it's just that he needs a test of stamina, and over a normal trip he can get taken off his feet on decent ground. In the national it might even help him as it makes it easier to give the weight away. If he gets over Beechers second time he can make up any amount of ground, he's just better than the others. It's a big "if" though, it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't get past the first ditch.
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I would agree with that assessment. I'm just thinking more in terms of Gold Cup form. What if he hasn't actually improved but just appears more consistent because he's been running in his conditions more often. It could mean we are completely over rating the novices from last year and should be looking more in terms of S Conti and Long Run.
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In fact more I think about it the more I think S Conti is the bet. He ran decent over hurdles behind Menorah and Cue Card at the track. Long Run a big danger if last year was an off day but he's more likely to give it away with sloppy jumping.
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I like Silvi too. Looks a bit like a free bet EW, lack of chase form at the track is the only real concern. I think Long Run has gone backwards and the KG form was no improvement on Haydock. Don't see him improving on his run last year, which won't be good enough.
There are a few interesting outsiders though. Silvi and Bobsworth have established themselves as decent 170 horses, but they are miles behind the likes of Kauto, Denman, Imperial Commander at his best, Desert Orchid etc. There's no real standout form and nothing like the gulf between the favourites and some of the 50-1 shots that the market suggests. The ground is much less predictable this year too. It could still dry out, but equally it could easily be a bog. |
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Bobsworth is the worry but his preparation has not been ideal. I agree that as a bunch these are nowhere near as good as the past winners.
Yeah S Conti e/w NRNB is my bet for this race, I don't particularly fancy any of the outsiders but wouldn't be surprised if one ran into a place. |