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Ten year trends for the Thyestes Chase at Gowran on Thursday below (http://tinyurl.com/ajda28l). The last 6 winners had run in either the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown or the Tim Duggan Memorial at Limerick, thought Panther Claw looks a solid selection on the trends, with Tullintain also respected.
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
7yo: 2-1-16
8yo: 3-8-39
9yo: 4-11-45
10yo: 1-6-44
11yo+: 0-2-20
Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 9-20-100, which compares well to horses aged 10+: 1-8-64.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 2-12-72
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 8-16-92
Horses carrying less than 10-9 have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race. The 2 winners to carry 10-9+ to victory were Preists Leap in 2009 (won the race previous year) and Siegemaster in 2011 (3rd the previous year).
Top Weight: 4744F42010 (1-3-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 130 or higher: 3-14-76
Horses rated 129 or lower: 7-14-88
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 or lower, however in recent years the trends has pointed towards higher rated runners, with 5 of the last 6 winners being rated 125+.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had a run since Christmas
9 of 10 winners had won or placed on one or both of last two completed starts
9 of 10 winners had won over at least 3 miles
8 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer chases
10 of 10 winners had run in 5 or less handicap chases
8 of 10 winners were first or second season chasers (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in previous year's race)
8 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Limerick Christmas meetings
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 2/grade C or higher chase
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from previous year's race: 5P261090 (1-1-8)
Highest placed finisher from Tim Duggan Memorial H'cap Chase: 6P012 (1-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from Paddy Power Chase to run in this: 923P3P36 (0-4-8)
Previous season's Woodlands Park Club Novice Chase winner (Medical Card): 220F5 (0-2-5)
ComfyBed Novice Handicap Chase winner (Caduceus): 4 (0-1-1)
Batterstown Handicap Chase winner (Murchu): 43 (0-1-2)
Troytown Handicap Chase winner (Tofino Bay): 2885 (0-1-4)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in Paddy Power Chase last time, finishing FF8B
2 of 10 (2 of last 6) ran in Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners ran in Troytown Handicap Chase, finishing 04
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish Grand National, finishing 7F
Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-6-23) has saddled 2 winner and 5 places in the past 6 years and has trained 4 winners since 2000.
Dessie Hughes (1-3-6) has a very strong record in this, with his 6 four runners producing 1 winners (Siegemaster in 2011) and 3 places.
Paul Nolan (0-4-8) has seen 4 of his 8 runners make the places since 2003.
Fran Flood (0-1-1) has seen his one runner in this finish 3rd while Robert Tyner (0-1-3) and Paul Gilligan (0-1-1) saddled the 2nd and 3rd last year.
Noel Meade (0-0-11) has not had much luck in this, with his 11 runners since 2003 finishing unplaced.
Running Style
3 of 10 winners led/made all
3 of 10 winners tracked leaders
3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division
1 of 10 winners were held up towards rear
Price
No strong trends on the prices with 5 of the last 6 winners have gone off between 10/1 & 20/1 while the previous 4 winners all went off 8/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-5-11) have gained just 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 3.42.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 7 to 9
• Carrying 10-9 or less (or placed in last year’s race)
• Officially rated 125 or higher
• Run since Christmas (ideally at Limerick or Leopardstown Festivals)
• Won or placed on one or both of last 2 starts
• Ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial or Paddy Power Chase in December
• Has won over 3M+
• Run in 5 or fewer handicap chases
• First or second season chaser (or placed in last year’s race)
• Previously won or placed in a Grade C or better chase
• Tends to race prominently
• Trained by Willie Mullins, Dessie Hughes or Paul Nolan
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
7yo: 2-1-16
8yo: 3-8-39
9yo: 4-11-45
10yo: 1-6-44
11yo+: 0-2-20
Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 9-20-100, which compares well to horses aged 10+: 1-8-64.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 2-12-72
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 8-16-92
Horses carrying less than 10-9 have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race. The 2 winners to carry 10-9+ to victory were Preists Leap in 2009 (won the race previous year) and Siegemaster in 2011 (3rd the previous year).
Top Weight: 4744F42010 (1-3-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 130 or higher: 3-14-76
Horses rated 129 or lower: 7-14-88
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 or lower, however in recent years the trends has pointed towards higher rated runners, with 5 of the last 6 winners being rated 125+.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had a run since Christmas
9 of 10 winners had won or placed on one or both of last two completed starts
9 of 10 winners had won over at least 3 miles
8 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer chases
10 of 10 winners had run in 5 or less handicap chases
8 of 10 winners were first or second season chasers (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in previous year's race)
8 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Limerick Christmas meetings
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 2/grade C or higher chase
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from previous year's race: 5P261090 (1-1-8)
Highest placed finisher from Tim Duggan Memorial H'cap Chase: 6P012 (1-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from Paddy Power Chase to run in this: 923P3P36 (0-4-8)
Previous season's Woodlands Park Club Novice Chase winner (Medical Card): 220F5 (0-2-5)
ComfyBed Novice Handicap Chase winner (Caduceus): 4 (0-1-1)
Batterstown Handicap Chase winner (Murchu): 43 (0-1-2)
Troytown Handicap Chase winner (Tofino Bay): 2885 (0-1-4)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in Paddy Power Chase last time, finishing FF8B
2 of 10 (2 of last 6) ran in Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners ran in Troytown Handicap Chase, finishing 04
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish Grand National, finishing 7F
Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-6-23) has saddled 2 winner and 5 places in the past 6 years and has trained 4 winners since 2000.
Dessie Hughes (1-3-6) has a very strong record in this, with his 6 four runners producing 1 winners (Siegemaster in 2011) and 3 places.
Paul Nolan (0-4-8) has seen 4 of his 8 runners make the places since 2003.
Fran Flood (0-1-1) has seen his one runner in this finish 3rd while Robert Tyner (0-1-3) and Paul Gilligan (0-1-1) saddled the 2nd and 3rd last year.
Noel Meade (0-0-11) has not had much luck in this, with his 11 runners since 2003 finishing unplaced.
Running Style
3 of 10 winners led/made all
3 of 10 winners tracked leaders
3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division
1 of 10 winners were held up towards rear
Price
No strong trends on the prices with 5 of the last 6 winners have gone off between 10/1 & 20/1 while the previous 4 winners all went off 8/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-5-11) have gained just 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 3.42.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 7 to 9
• Carrying 10-9 or less (or placed in last year’s race)
• Officially rated 125 or higher
• Run since Christmas (ideally at Limerick or Leopardstown Festivals)
• Won or placed on one or both of last 2 starts
• Ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial or Paddy Power Chase in December
• Has won over 3M+
• Run in 5 or fewer handicap chases
• First or second season chaser (or placed in last year’s race)
• Previously won or placed in a Grade C or better chase
• Tends to race prominently
• Trained by Willie Mullins, Dessie Hughes or Paul Nolan
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as i pointed out on the irish forum, only 1 stat stands out.
in 30 years, only one horse has won this race when competing in its first handicap chase.
if that stat holds.
rule out
son amix,
the westerner boy
toon river.
in 30 years, only one horse has won this race when competing in its first handicap chase.
if that stat holds.
rule out
son amix,
the westerner boy
toon river.
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