IMPERIAL COMMANDER AND QUITO DE LA ROQUE GOLD CUP

Imperial Commander is running next week isn't he ?
So he won't be fresh.

I've been beating the QDLR drum for some time now, and I'm surprised that I've managed to avoid much stick, though someone inexplicably said they'd be astonished if he lined up in the Gold Cup!

He's by far & away the most lively outsider in the field, and for a rag he has solid credentials.

Looks like being a red hot gold cup.
QDLR has about 70 lengths to make up on the main contenders.

good to see ya back manuel and good luck with em !

It would be better for me peronally if IMPERIAL COMMANDER missed the cotswold and went straight to the gold cup however it maybe that the trainer feels after the break it may assist to run him here, it would still leave a gap of seven weeks to the gold cup so it may not be a problem, very strange to say you dont want your horse to have a prep run for the gold cup but he is that good fresh in my opinion.

Naval and I have had QUITO DE LA ROQUE at various prices all season for the gold cup and to be fair after his last run it was beginning to look a case in vain until yesterday when it appears the real horse turned up, nobody should forget the quality this horse has and to win so impressively from a good one over a 2m4f trip looks very good. It was always going to be the case that he would need a good few runs especially the type of horse he is, I actually thought he may not show his true colours until the big one in Ireland in Feb but that was good form yesterday.

By the way I think my first post last year was about Synchronised winning the gold cup after he had won the lexus, this time its about a horse that got stuffed in the lexus and one on crutchers, lets hope the boat sails int he right direction again, good luck anyway

manuel

why was it always going to be the case he needed a few runs?

He won well yesterday and looked a possible GC horse in his novice season but that performance yesterday did not scream Gold Cup to me.

Sint - the performance to me that ROARED Gold Cup was the Nicholson from November 2011 when he wore down Sizing Europe and The Nightingale, and I was so taken by that, I've been making excuses for him ever since.

After the promising run at Down Royal behind Kauto Stone & Flight Lieutenant when returning from a long lay-off due to a few niggling problems, it's possible he 'bounced' afterwards - I've urged people on here to take a close look at his form as he's not really done much wrong throughout his career, and has a very intriguing profile.

He looks a GUARANTEED stayer and there are (as usual) few of those in the race, though Bob's Worth & Long Run also have no question marks on that score.
I've said several times that maybe he's been unfairly tagged as a mudlark and my only real concern would be that he's not been to Cheltenham before.

Manuel said to me that QDLR would be beaten at Aintree (I thought he couldn't lose there ) AND in the Lexus too, but suspected he'd be ready for the Irish Hennessy, put in a big run there and be primed for the Gold Cup.

Maybe he read between the lines concerning trainer comments?
I'm sure he'll elaborate as to why on his return.

Amazingly, after the Aintree disappointment, his official rating dropped from 169 to 155 (you don't see that too often) which would have made him a corking bet for the Welsh National. That 169 mark puts him bang in contention in terms of raw ability, and that relentless plodding he does suggests to me that classier horses with higher ratings will cry enough before he does over a stamina-sapping C&D off a likely strong pace.

As for his novice season...everyone seemed unanimous in believing that was probably the worst crop of novices in decades which was ironic as the previous season's lot looked excellent at the time - it seems the generation was given a wide berth though The Giant Bolster finally came good, and the only other pretender Quel Esprit has had a tough time of things with many injuries.

Finally, for those who believe in 'the signs' I only just noticed earlier that QDLR was foaled on the 15th March, which coincidentally is the day on which the Gold Cup will be run this year - that's much earlier than usual.

Are 'the gods' onside for this horse?

*** FIRST Lieutenant, not Flight Lieutenant

QDLR certainly stays very well, and will be running on up the hill with great determination when others have ..... finished unsaddling, had a wash and got ready to go home.  Watch the race against Sizing Europe again - yes he stays on when the leaders come to a virtual standstill, but the ease with which they left him 30 lengths or so behind is what stayed with me from that race, that doesn't happen to Gold Cup horses. He won't see which way they went.

Imperial Commander on the other hand - not the most ludicrous of longshots. It would be some training feat to get him back at the same level. It seems it takes some training feat to get him on a racecourse at all, and always has. But the horse with the best form this year so far is also 12. I get the distinct impression that there are quite a lot of good stayers around, but there isn't an outstanding one, and IC might only need to be within 10-14lbs of his old form to be good enough. Let's not forget he beat Denman 7l when Denman had everything in his favour - ground, pace, fitness etc. Nothing (else) in this field is anywhere near as good as a peak form Denman on soft ground.

Barry.
Taking nothing away from ICs gold cup win,but i think Denman was past his peak then

came back home the other day switched ATR on saw the prices for the race that was about to start said to my mrs QDLR will win this cant believe its 12-1... if only id got her out of asda 10 mins sooner....

Personally cannot believe you've admitted on a public forum that you went shopping in a supermarket with you wife!!

she couldnt hear me honking the horn

QUITO DE LA ROQUE stays, jumps and has a touch of class


has a touch of class? not sure were you get that from....came from the worst crop of novice chasers in living memory, beating Sarando at Aintree...may plod on for 6th under normal conditions, 4th in a bog

When he won at Down Royal in 2011 Murphy said we will see if there is a five mile race for him - which just about sums it up

Quito might be interesting for the National one day. Can't see him figuring in the Gold Cup.

Duncan - I'd say being a grade one winner gives a performer a 'touch of class'...QDLR has two, and numerous other grade two victories, as well as a 169 official rating going into the Aintree race.

Would you agree that he'd have been well-handicapped for the Welsh National off 155?

I think you're falling into the very obvious 'trap' that everyone else is about this horse (all the stereotypes) but as I see things, it's about finding a different angle and a bit of value...the alternative is to back Bob's Worth or Long Run if you're looking for something relatively bombproof, and their prices stink!

Out of interest, where's your money going and who's the best longshot you figure could run way above expectations, like The Giant Bolster last year?
Slow, stamina-laden boats are invariably on the premises in the Gold Cup, and QDLR fits the bill perfectly.

I cannot believe some of the prices I've got for QDLR, and he's even touched 85 for the frame Who are these maniacs prepared to lay at such odds?
For your sake, I hope you're not holding such a hot potato

Am also a long term QDLR fan and backer at huge prices , will be one of the best jumpers in the field with given stamina and yes , a touch of class , but part of the reason he is those prices is that a) He needs to be sound , and with both back and sinus problems that is rarely a given and b) He needs his bottomless ground in March which again is unlikely , even if the two conspire what is a sensible price ? Around 20s ?

Paulo - I think he's a safe conveyance but I wouldn't go overboard about his jumping...he's no Flemenstar on the fencing front, though he's no Long Run either.

Admittedly, virtually all his runs have been on a soft/heavy surface and an assumption seems to have been made that he NEEDS very soft ground because he's trained in Ireland and that's what Irish NH performers have to run on most of the time, but that's far from conclusive in my view - he could in fact improve for a better surface, and I've seen that happen with many an Irish contender at the Festival over the years.

I don't believe he'll be inconvenienced by the likely good/soft ground at Cheltenham and he did after all win a grade two at Aintree on officially good ground a couple of seasons ago, which is the fastest ground he's encountered.

I would rather have a bet on Bobs Worth @ 3/1  he can win.
QDLR cannot win this gold cup,so whatever the odds are itmakes no difference unless your backing to lay

I'll still be astonished if QDLR lines up for The Gold Cup.

Wouldnt be surprised if either turned up tbh, and if they did one would have to start now to place. Think they will aim QDLR at National. Hope IC makes comeback but been away long time and to think him winning a Gold Cup again is pure fantasy.

Im a big fan of Imperial commander, you cannot really dismiss this horse based on what he has achieved.  There is no Kauto, no Denman but we do have IC.  I dont think he will win but...

40/1 each way NRNB with Betfred.

I have already put a bet on him. My main negative is that he had a setback, but NTD wont send the horse if he didnt have a chance.  I do hope he does not turn up in the Argento this Saturday and heads straight to the festival, as he runs well fresh... Id be a lot happier as I dont think 7 weeks will be enough recovery for the horse... If he retains his old ability will show a lot of the younger brigade how its done.

For those who remember i started a thread in which i was very strong about Synchronised winnning the gold cup after his impressive lexus win and on that thread came comments such as plodder, mudlark, handicapper, cant win, give up racing if he won etc etc and look what happened when that plodding mudlark handicapper with no chance turned up for the gold cup.

Im all fairness i really really fancied Syncronised, these two are long shots but not to be dismissed, they are big prices but have class and should not be overlooked lightly

With regards QDLR beong aimed at the National, are the owners fans of the race? Only one runner in the last 3 years as far as I can see which is low considering they invest in true NH/chasing types

an abundance of stamina certainly played to synchroniseds strenghts last season also long run the season before ,and qdlr certainly seems to have plenty , i was of the thought that qdlr was a bit slow and was rather regressive but his latest win over a vastly inadaquat trip made me sit up and take notice, i also put up synchronised on the chelt thread last year albeit a few days before the gold cup and also had a lot of negative vibes (mudlark,plodder , handicapper,ect) but he looked the type who would be suited by the demands of a gold cup and so it proved . qdlr seems to be coming to hand at the right time and will be running on when a lot of the others have had enough . the price looks attractive to me and have helped myself to some . good luck manuel !

I posted the original piece outlining the chances of the two horses and the reasons why i thought they represented value and The Commander has gone onto prove the point and i still hope both horses could run well in the gold cup and even place, much depends on how QUITO euns in Ireland and also how the commander recovers and if he will be frsh enough for the gold cup.

Having seen the Cotswold Chase what is CAPE TRIBULATION doing now at the price he is after that performance in beating the Commander, it almost seems like its been dismissed and I have no idea why as that was a quality performance from a quality horse who is improving at a rate not bettered by any in the race, He travels, jumps, stays and can quicken at the end of it and like Synchronised when winning the lexus seems to have been overlooked, maybe a northern trainer means he cant win hey, dont think so, this is a very nice horse and he is improving fast and giving that weight and a beating to the Commander shows just how much he has improved, dont forget Imperial Commander was still rated 164 and goes so well fresh and also giving it 6lbs was a tremendous performance, certainly made me sit up and take note as I was convinced the Commander would win especially at the weights.

Cape's trainer didn't seem too confident aboout winning the GC but could well just be his nature.

Cape Tribulation raised to a mark of 165

Navel-Gazer, i have laid QDLR @ 95 but happily have also backed him @ 240, so there you go. My main bet in the race is Bobs Worth, who i thought was sound value at 5/1 after the Hennessy...my main plays are usually longer-priced runners (i have a small bet on SConti @ 75), but tbh cant find anything amongst the longer-priced runners that i'd describe as value

good luck with your bets

Duncan - that's a wise move to have a free bet on QDLR and not to have a big red next to his name...especially for the frame for which I believe he has every chance.

Obviously, you've done well to back Silviniaco Conti at 75 and I have to admit I've laid him as high as 20 and as low as 7.6 but without backing him, I'm STILL on my minimum tenner green for him! I think he'll struggle to see out the trip as he looks quite nippy to me and that sort will always be at a huge disadvantage in an above average & competitive renewal.

A straight lay of your stake would still see you on a 66/1 shot and is there really that much difference?
Getting your stake back would be a wise move in my view, but also a short I/R lay will be the way to play that one, as I suspect he'll be travelling well coming down the hill, but might empty out quickly.

In a strange way he reminds me of Saonois in the Arc who even though well-backed, I felt strongly he would struggle to get the trip and fail to make the frame (I said so on here) despite backing him at massive prices, and laying him short - I'm still stupefied how Solemia was even near the business end of the race and those things teach you lessons.

I think most people would agree that Kauto Star was a better chaser than Denman as he was more versatile & speedier, but I believe the latter was a better performer over the Gold Cup C&D, and despite being a runner-up three times, he's probably the best, and most 'tailor-made' for the race's demands I've seen in the last 35 runnings, though supporters of Imperial Commander will give me an argument on that score.

My point is that this is a 'one-off' kind of chase and as was proved yet again last year with something like The Giant Bolster, you never know who'll appreciate the rigours of the race (and improve for them) and who of the fancied lot will cry enough, until they run in it.
I didn't fancy TGB at all and I always try to make a case for the rags - on that evidence he's got more than a squeak this time around.

I will be laying Silviniaco Conti for a place on the day and have some very short I/R lays set in case he does a 'One Man' though without wishing to contradict myself, I wouldn't mind having him on my side at 66/1 - it's ALL about the value

He's a quality chaser who's well worth his place in the race and if I'm wrong, I hope you wave your dosh in my boat like Tracksuit Dave

PS - I hope I don't sound like I'm contradicting myself but I'm obsessed with value.

For example, in last year's Gold Cup, Midnight Chase and Weird Al were single figure prices on the day and at those odds, I just couldn't fancy either!
They were place lays for me but if they'd have been 50/1 pokes, I'd have been shouting about what great value they were!

I am proceeding on the basis that the Gold Cup winner probably ran in the King George or the Lexus, just waiting for the Denman Chase and more importantly the Hennessey at Leopardstown to finalise my selections. Would definitely be Sir Des Champs if he wins next weekend

navel-gazer, thanks for advice but tbh i've traded about 25 horses in Gold Cup market and it's all in hand!...dont have QDLR running for me (have taken the profit) and have already traded out of SConti @ ave 9.1


some interesting thoughts there...i'm of the opinion that last year's Gold Cup was a clunker (in part due to i) a poor novice crop year before and ii) Father Time catching up on Kauto, Denman, Imperial Comm) and this year's will prove stronger despite some suggesting otherwise...had forgotten that Weird Al & M Chase were so prominent in the betting last year, which backs up that view imo

agree, it's all about value

yeah Duncan I agree last years Gold Cup looks weak

Is QDLR's entry in the National gonna scupper a shot at the big one?
Anyone aware of the latest news?

I don't see why it should, as many who've ran well (or even won) at Aintree have raced at The Festival in the same season, and at least
one performer a season seems to pull off the double - I think there were SIX last year.

On the RP website it says there are 40 entered yet it only lists 24. Of those, we already know several who are definitely not going or have little chance at all, so the 21 on here (for £58) place only is huge in my view...maybe too big, and that concerns me that someone knows something.

I've already loaded up so there's no mileage in me taking more, to see it withdrawn...if that happened I'd be gutted, as I kept sizeable greens on Grands Crus & Quel Esprit last season to see them drop out late on.

Colm Murphy not made his mind up for GC, said it might come too soon. Looks as if def going to Aintree, either for The National, or Betfair Bowl.

That was off top of my head from ATR interview last week.

Noticed he's come down in price on here today for Gold Cup.

Thanks Fab - a statement of Murphy's intention to run and that 21 will be in single figures...I think it's a bold layer who's brave enough to risk over a grand on that.

Imperial_Racing ‏@Imperial_Racing
Imperial Commander to bypass Gold Cup due to lung infection interrupting his preparation #thatsracing

Matched at 13.5 today after that 21 (for £58) - alas, it wan't me
There may only be a dozen lining up next week.

I'm seething at Quito De La Roque's withdrawal...I think it's madness that they're saving him for the National, and because connections have cost me a possible big payday, I hope the jockey unseats when the tapes go up or QDLR refuses at the first!

I've been dying to see that plodding boat around Cheltenham (off a decent pace & over that trip) for an eternity!
That's now three seasons on the trot they've missed Cheltenham (for one reason or another) after having it earmarked for the Festival!

Also, a sizeable bet on Quel Esprit to be in the frame has bitten the dust too!
That's exactly why I despise backing ante-post, though the blow is cushioned by an all-green book.

Besides the money...I'm gutted not to have had a chance to see my judgement vindicated, but at the price he is for Aintree, maybe I should forget about the schadenfreude, and get stuck into the value - last matched at a surprisingly high 85, so maybe he's missing that as well!

you've got to stop backing 155-rated horses for the Gold Cup, innit....stone below the standard required....hope you had a good Chelt otherwise

DI - QDLR was as high as 169 last November...I think he earned a crack at the big one

The way Jobsworth stretched to the line was just how I thought QDLR would do...I've convinced myself he could've been placed last week but I suppose the consolation of the National will just have to satisfy connections - 'Sod's Law' DICTATES I won't have a bean on him when he bolts up!

As for The Festival...I picked two bits of value in every race (totally determined to me by the prices ) and managed to find just the ONE winner - Same Difference at 22's, though I had 12 placed horses at huge prices (in 27 races - two 16/1 shots Ericht & Walkon were both 5th with the concessions and helped a little) and incredibly, two very unfortunate losers, Tofino Bay & Oscar Delta!

The key is getting the right outsiders in the frame in your multiple bet which is something I've ALWAYS had great difficulty doing...there's a lot of luck involved, and if it can go wrong, it will!

Friday's £1 E/W L15;

Sametegal 50/1...sneaked 3rd
The Giant Bolster...16/1 (4th bah!)
Oscar Delta 25/1...need I say more - cost me a grand!
Drumshambo 25/1...of course, it pinched 4th place to piss me off even more!

AND on Tuesday I backed Ackertac at 160, and The Bald One limited an E/W L15 to 20p stakes costing me £540 for a place treble

Anyhow...that's enough of my whining for now - I have a Lincoln winner to find

PS - how did you fare at Cheltenham?

PS - Oscar Delta has (very likely) cost me another grand as I had it in the ATR competition at the maximum stake (40 pts) with three other short-priced winners too!

Anyone else got such grievous tales as well?

I'm sure many have lost substantial amounts (far more than me) on Oscar Delta but pound for pound (considering I'm a deadbeat gambler) nobody else has had the double-intruder in the same orifice that I've endured

My arse is STILL sore!