IMPERIAL COMMANDER AND QUITO DE LA ROQUE GOLD CUP

Imperial Commander is running next week isn't he ?
So he won't be fresh.

Looks like being a red hot gold cup.
QDLR has about 70 lengths to make up on the main contenders.

It would be better for me peronally if IMPERIAL COMMANDER missed the cotswold and went straight to the gold cup however it maybe that the trainer feels after the break it may assist to run him here, it would still leave a gap of seven weeks to the gold cup so it may not be a problem, very strange to say you dont want your horse to have a prep run for the gold cup but he is that good fresh in my opinion.

Naval and I have had QUITO DE LA ROQUE at various prices all season for the gold cup and to be fair after his last run it was beginning to look a case in vain until yesterday when it appears the real horse turned up, nobody should forget the quality this horse has and to win so impressively from a good one over a 2m4f trip looks very good. It was always going to be the case that he would need a good few runs especially the type of horse he is, I actually thought he may not show his true colours until the big one in Ireland in Feb but that was good form yesterday.

why was it always going to be the case he needed a few runs?

He won well yesterday and looked a possible GC horse in his novice season but that performance yesterday did not scream Gold Cup to me.

*** FIRST Lieutenant, not Flight Lieutenant

Imperial Commander on the other hand - not the most ludicrous of longshots. It would be some training feat to get him back at the same level. It seems it takes some training feat to get him on a racecourse at all, and always has. But the horse with the best form this year so far is also 12. I get the distinct impression that there are quite a lot of good stayers around, but there isn't an outstanding one, and IC might only need to be within 10-14lbs of his old form to be good enough. Let's not forget he beat Denman 7l when Denman had everything in his favour - ground, pace, fitness etc. Nothing (else) in this field is anywhere near as good as a peak form Denman on soft ground.

came back home the other day switched ATR on saw the prices for the race that was about to start said to my mrs QDLR will win this cant believe its 12-1... if only id got her out of asda 10 mins sooner....

she couldnt hear me honking the horn

When he won at Down Royal in 2011 Murphy said we will see if there is a five mile race for him - which just about sums it up

Duncan - I'd say being a grade one winner gives a performer a 'touch of class'...QDLR has two, and numerous other grade two victories, as well as a 169 official rating going into the Aintree race.

Would you agree that he'd have been well-handicapped for the Welsh National off 155?

I think you're falling into the very obvious 'trap' that everyone else is about this horse (all the stereotypes) but as I see things, it's about finding a different angle and a bit of value...the alternative is to back Bob's Worth or Long Run if you're looking for something relatively bombproof, and their prices stink!

Out of interest, where's your money going and who's the best longshot you figure could run way above expectations, like The Giant Bolster last year?
Slow, stamina-laden boats are invariably on the premises in the Gold Cup, and QDLR fits the bill perfectly.

I cannot believe some of the prices I've got for QDLR, and he's even touched 85 for the frame Who are these maniacs prepared to lay at such odds?
For your sake, I hope you're not holding such a hot potato

Paulo - I think he's a safe conveyance but I wouldn't go overboard about his jumping...he's no Flemenstar on the fencing front, though he's no Long Run either.

Admittedly, virtually all his runs have been on a soft/heavy surface and an assumption seems to have been made that he NEEDS very soft ground because he's trained in Ireland and that's what Irish NH performers have to run on most of the time, but that's far from conclusive in my view - he could in fact improve for a better surface, and I've seen that happen with many an Irish contender at the Festival over the years.

I don't believe he'll be inconvenienced by the likely good/soft ground at Cheltenham and he did after all win a grade two at Aintree on officially good ground a couple of seasons ago, which is the fastest ground he's encountered.

I'll still be astonished if QDLR lines up for The Gold Cup.

Im a big fan of Imperial commander, you cannot really dismiss this horse based on what he has achieved.  There is no Kauto, no Denman but we do have IC.  I dont think he will win but...

40/1 each way NRNB with Betfred.

I have already put a bet on him. My main negative is that he had a setback, but NTD wont send the horse if he didnt have a chance.  I do hope he does not turn up in the Argento this Saturday and heads straight to the festival, as he runs well fresh... Id be a lot happier as I dont think 7 weeks will be enough recovery for the horse... If he retains his old ability will show a lot of the younger brigade how its done.

With regards QDLR beong aimed at the National, are the owners fans of the race? Only one runner in the last 3 years as far as I can see which is low considering they invest in true NH/chasing types

I posted the original piece outlining the chances of the two horses and the reasons why i thought they represented value and The Commander has gone onto prove the point and i still hope both horses could run well in the gold cup and even place, much depends on how QUITO euns in Ireland and also how the commander recovers and if he will be frsh enough for the gold cup.

Having seen the Cotswold Chase what is CAPE TRIBULATION doing now at the price he is after that performance in beating the Commander, it almost seems like its been dismissed and I have no idea why as that was a quality performance from a quality horse who is improving at a rate not bettered by any in the race, He travels, jumps, stays and can quicken at the end of it and like Synchronised when winning the lexus seems to have been overlooked, maybe a northern trainer means he cant win hey, dont think so, this is a very nice horse and he is improving fast and giving that weight and a beating to the Commander shows just how much he has improved, dont forget Imperial Commander was still rated 164 and goes so well fresh and also giving it 6lbs was a tremendous performance, certainly made me sit up and take note as I was convinced the Commander would win especially at the weights.

Cape Tribulation raised to a mark of 165

Duncan - that's a wise move to have a free bet on QDLR and not to have a big red next to his name...especially for the frame for which I believe he has every chance.

Obviously, you've done well to back Silviniaco Conti at 75 and I have to admit I've laid him as high as 20 and as low as 7.6 but without backing him, I'm STILL on my minimum tenner green for him! I think he'll struggle to see out the trip as he looks quite nippy to me and that sort will always be at a huge disadvantage in an above average & competitive renewal.

A straight lay of your stake would still see you on a 66/1 shot and is there really that much difference?
Getting your stake back would be a wise move in my view, but also a short I/R lay will be the way to play that one, as I suspect he'll be travelling well coming down the hill, but might empty out quickly.

In a strange way he reminds me of Saonois in the Arc who even though well-backed, I felt strongly he would struggle to get the trip and fail to make the frame (I said so on here) despite backing him at massive prices, and laying him short - I'm still stupefied how Solemia was even near the business end of the race and those things teach you lessons.

I think most people would agree that Kauto Star was a better chaser than Denman as he was more versatile & speedier, but I believe the latter was a better performer over the Gold Cup C&D, and despite being a runner-up three times, he's probably the best, and most 'tailor-made' for the race's demands I've seen in the last 35 runnings, though supporters of Imperial Commander will give me an argument on that score.

My point is that this is a 'one-off' kind of chase and as was proved yet again last year with something like The Giant Bolster, you never know who'll appreciate the rigours of the race (and improve for them) and who of the fancied lot will cry enough, until they run in it.
I didn't fancy TGB at all and I always try to make a case for the rags - on that evidence he's got more than a squeak this time around.

I will be laying Silviniaco Conti for a place on the day and have some very short I/R lays set in case he does a 'One Man' though without wishing to contradict myself, I wouldn't mind having him on my side at 66/1 - it's ALL about the value

He's a quality chaser who's well worth his place in the race and if I'm wrong, I hope you wave your dosh in my boat like Tracksuit Dave

I am proceeding on the basis that the Gold Cup winner probably ran in the King George or the Lexus, just waiting for the Denman Chase and more importantly the Hennessey at Leopardstown to finalise my selections. Would definitely be Sir Des Champs if he wins next weekend

yeah Duncan I agree last years Gold Cup looks weak

Colm Murphy not made his mind up for GC, said it might come too soon. Looks as if def going to Aintree, either for The National, or Betfair Bowl.

That was off top of my head from ATR interview last week.

Noticed he's come down in price on here today for Gold Cup.