Horse Antepost
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Looking forward to this one more than the King George.
I love Flemenstar; he's my favourite chaser this season and looks exceptionally versatile. As impressive as he was against Sir Des Champs, I'm not sure the result will be so decisive over 3 miles. SDC looks to be the Gold Cup front runner IMO. On that basis, 11/8 certainly doesn't look like a good price when SDC is 3/1! Sizing Europe will struggle against these over a tough 3 miles on heavy. Tidal Bay looks the only possible danger to the front two, and despite being 11, he looks to have earned this mark of 169. The tougher the race the better (and this will be a tough one), and I think he looks an OK price at 5/1.
What's everybody else backing/laying?
I love Flemenstar; he's my favourite chaser this season and looks exceptionally versatile. As impressive as he was against Sir Des Champs, I'm not sure the result will be so decisive over 3 miles. SDC looks to be the Gold Cup front runner IMO. On that basis, 11/8 certainly doesn't look like a good price when SDC is 3/1! Sizing Europe will struggle against these over a tough 3 miles on heavy. Tidal Bay looks the only possible danger to the front two, and despite being 11, he looks to have earned this mark of 169. The tougher the race the better (and this will be a tough one), and I think he looks an OK price at 5/1.
What's everybody else backing/laying?
Show More
Stats / trends come out with the following ratings (with one caveat):
Sir Des Champs 89%
Flemenstar 82%
Hidden Cyclone 77%
First Lieutenant 71%
Tidal Bay 71%
Quito De La Roque 70%
Bog Warrior 65%
Sizing Europe 59%
Rubi Light 57%
Midnight Chase 46%
China Rock 35%
Pandorama 30%
The caveat is that I am missing one bit of information.
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 153+ on last completed chase start
If anyone has that information for each of the above runners, and could post it up then I can complete the analysis.
Sir Des Champs 89%
Flemenstar 82%
Hidden Cyclone 77%
First Lieutenant 71%
Tidal Bay 71%
Quito De La Roque 70%
Bog Warrior 65%
Sizing Europe 59%
Rubi Light 57%
Midnight Chase 46%
China Rock 35%
Pandorama 30%
The caveat is that I am missing one bit of information.
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 153+ on last completed chase start
If anyone has that information for each of the above runners, and could post it up then I can complete the analysis.
Hidden Cyclone was 153. Only ones below as I see it are Rubi Light and Bog Warrior
Last horse to run in the Henessy and then Win the Lexus was Denman. Tidal Bay I respect a lot but the fact the Henessy was run in early December this year instead of late Nov has given him 1 weeks less recovery time. PFN is convinced he has improved him though.
I agree Flemenstar is a bit short 11/8, think he should be 13/8 - 7/4 tbh.
SDC probably looks the play, even if you wanted to be a thief and back him eachway at 3/1 for a small loss if he places first 3, but im not convinced by his jumping.
Probably just watch this one.
I agree Flemenstar is a bit short 11/8, think he should be 13/8 - 7/4 tbh.
SDC probably looks the play, even if you wanted to be a thief and back him eachway at 3/1 for a small loss if he places first 3, but im not convinced by his jumping.
Probably just watch this one.
Updated ranking:
Sir Des Champs 100%
Flemenstar 93%
Hidden Cyclone 88%
First Lieutenant 82%
Tidal Bay 82%
Quito De La Roque 80%
Sizing Europe 70%
Bog Warrior 65%
Midnight Chase 57%
Rubi Light 57%
China Rock 46%
Pandorama 41%
The above credits both Flemenstar and First Liuetenant with having won over 3m+. However, both these victories were achieved in PTP (First Lieutenant) and maiden PTP (Flemenstar) events, and if you took the opposing view that this is not sufficient evidence of staying power at the 'top table', then you could pay more attention to the ranking below:
Sir Des Champs 100%
Hidden Cyclone 88%
Tidal Bay 82%
Flemenstar 80%
Quito De La Roque 80%
First Lieutenant 70%
Sizing Europe 70%
Bog Warrior 65%
Midnight Chase 57%
Rubi Light 57%
China Rock 46%
Pandorama 41%
So, the bet has to be............Sir Des Champs.
Sir Des Champs 100%
Flemenstar 93%
Hidden Cyclone 88%
First Lieutenant 82%
Tidal Bay 82%
Quito De La Roque 80%
Sizing Europe 70%
Bog Warrior 65%
Midnight Chase 57%
Rubi Light 57%
China Rock 46%
Pandorama 41%
The above credits both Flemenstar and First Liuetenant with having won over 3m+. However, both these victories were achieved in PTP (First Lieutenant) and maiden PTP (Flemenstar) events, and if you took the opposing view that this is not sufficient evidence of staying power at the 'top table', then you could pay more attention to the ranking below:
Sir Des Champs 100%
Hidden Cyclone 88%
Tidal Bay 82%
Flemenstar 80%
Quito De La Roque 80%
First Lieutenant 70%
Sizing Europe 70%
Bog Warrior 65%
Midnight Chase 57%
Rubi Light 57%
China Rock 46%
Pandorama 41%
So, the bet has to be............Sir Des Champs.
Sintonian, Pandorama ran in the Hennessy and won the Lexus.
Why is there no money to lay on First Lieutenant? Personally i would fancy him to beat Tidal Bay over 3m and Flemenstar well not stay.
I'd say First Lieutenant likely to get the trip ok after his good run in the Hennessy.
Jury still out on Flemenstar.....imagine he'd be a really nice horse if the has the stamina to go with his speed and jumping ability.
Jury still out on Flemenstar.....imagine he'd be a really nice horse if the has the stamina to go with his speed and jumping ability.
sorry Slabster you are correct technically. Maybe I should have said completed the Hennessy as I think he was pulled up quit early on and thus did not have a hard race.
Will find out how good Sir Des Champs is after Lexus, but defo no bet race for me.
Kevbetmug superstar. Not seen you about for a while- were you inside so Saville like crimes?
i will be backing sir deschamps in this at around 3s he looks a fair bet to me gotta turn around about 8l with flemenstar but he should improve and the trip should suit ,and the fact that w.mullins swerved the king george to line up here may be significant ,tidal bay could upset the applecart but the younger brigade could well improve enough to hold him off.
Hi WOPSY WOO. Just back from a Far East cruise mate, paid for with the money I won off you ;-)
Big fan of Sir`s & took a bit of the 8.4 on here last wk when all the £££ vibes were him going for the KG 2day, so was glad to hear the news last Sat that he would be going for the Lexus 
The 3miles will suit him better but the heavy ground is still not ideal & he is much better on gd ground.
Should be a cracking race with the exellent Flemenstar & back to his best Tidal Bay also gives a gd guide to the form (Bobs Worth).
Would love to see Sir`s win it, but i do think this is just another stepping stone towards the Gold Cup in March, hopefully on better ground (12s ante-post)
The 3miles will suit him better but the heavy ground is still not ideal & he is much better on gd ground.
Should be a cracking race with the exellent Flemenstar & back to his best Tidal Bay also gives a gd guide to the form (Bobs Worth).
Would love to see Sir`s win it, but i do think this is just another stepping stone towards the Gold Cup in March, hopefully on better ground (12s ante-post)
Race to watch & enjoy rather than punt I think & hope Flemenstar turns out to be the potential world-beater it promises
I'm worried about flemenstar over 3 miles but hope I'm wrong, got the impression that last time he didn't want to go much further....SDC has stacks to prove and his continued support for the gold cup from most quarters is bemusing to me......I'd love to see pandy run a big race.
Great to see Pandorama back and couldn't see him run without a couple of quid on. Hopefully they'll get a bit more rain
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539