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BJG
10 Dec 12 23:27
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Date Joined: 20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 29,810 | Blogger: BJG's blog
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1FU-31    Balder Succes28      4        Alan King         147    124    143
638-25    Bar De Ligne28      6        Steve Gollings         133    128    132
27/243    Bothy21    6        Brian Ellison         142    133    140
509P54    Capellanus14      6        Brian Ellison         127    92    133
1115-2    Cash And Go34      5        Nicky Henderson         145    135    144
712613    Cause Of Causes34      4        Gordon Elliott         —    132    140
2511-3    Claret Cloak49      5        Emma Lavelle         136    132    136
111U3-    Cotton Mill253    5        John Ferguson         145    103    153
138-31    Cousin Khee20      5        Hughie Morrison         —    112    121
203-P3    Dan Breen29      7        David Pipe         135    115    137
11F21-    Darlan253      5        Nicky Henderson         151    147    158
1-1114    Discoteca145      4        Gordon Elliott         —    105    137
310-73    Dontpaytheferryman14      7        Brian Ellison         126    131    130
32F14    Double Ross28      6        Nigel Twiston-Davies         142    139    145
216-3F    First Avenue42      7        Laura Mongan         131    96    133
P-1902    First In The Queue29      5        Nicky Henderson         132    103    133
61132    Fleet Dawn14    6        Brian Ellison         123    82    124
7333-    Hammersly Lake460    4        Nicky Henderson         142    —    —
121214    Hawkhill56      6        Tim Vaughan         135    110    133
121-94    Hisaabaat42      4        D K Weld         —    123    142
1538-4    Il Fenomeno55      6        Noel Meade         —    116    141
1146-2    Into Wain14      5        Steve Gollings         123    110    127
1218-2    It´s A Gimme49      5        Jonjo O´Neill         140    136    140
23217    Katkeau28    5        David Pipe         124    56    128
1147-0    Kazlian34      4        David Pipe         135    131    134
133/11    King Of Queens21      7        Thomas Mullins         —    118    135
1217-1    Lyvius23      4        Nicky Henderson         135    99    137
2F50-1    Olofi34      6        Tom George         144    134    142
27-38P    Persian Snow14      6        Philip Hobbs         130    125    130
39-511    Petit Robin14      9        Nicky Henderson         147    139    151
151-62    Princeton Plains93      6        Edward P Harty         —    122    146
2F11-    Ranjaan338      4        Paul Nicholls         141    111    137
201316    Rattan34      7        W P Mullins         —    134    149
301-12    Raya Star28      6        Alan King         155    151    154
6380-3    Redera22F      6        A J Martin         —    120    141
68P-52    Rigidity43      5        Tim Vaughan         —    94    133
44-16P    Rowan Tiger14    6        Dr Richard Newland         135    128    135
23711    Shrapnel31      6        Gordon Elliott         —    120    149
61/1-0    Snap Tie34      10        Philip Hobbs         150    144    155
30-067    Starluck14      7        David Arbuthnot         143    123    144
1111-    Swing Bowler279      5        David Pipe         123    81    113
2180-0    Ted Spread49    5        Paul Nicholls         132    115    136
F12P72    Thomas Edison49      5        A J Martin         —    102    134
151-03    Top Wood16      5        David Pipe         120    107    121
04-148    Urbain De Sivola41      4        Nick Williams         138    97    127
141U-0    Waterunder36      5        David Pipe         123    49    113
P710B/    Whitby Jack622    5        Gary Moore         —    —    —
53-634    Wingtips27    4        A J Martin         —    118    137


Balder Success, Hammersly Lake and Claret Cloak the 3 that immediately jump off the page for me. Obv Darlan too but is he an intended runner? Cant be lookin at him till i hear somethin!
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Report Flemenstar December 11, 2012 3:47 AM GMT
Really fancy Cotton Mill for this, especially if Raya Star turns up to defend his win in the race last year, he'd have to give 10lb to Cotton Mill

Hammersly Lake could be anything, and a dark horse for me could be Il Fenomeno

Think the likes of Katkeau need further than 2m.

Cotton Mill for me though. One of my pre-season horses to follow and not deserting him if this is to be his season opener
Report roobuck December 11, 2012 7:17 AM GMT
Whilst a true run race would help , fairly sure Cotton Mill would need further.

Not sure that any of the unexposed horses mentioned are particularly well treated and Darlan's mark doesn't look anywhere as near as attractive as it did a few weeks ago.

If it is soft I can still see Olofi being competitive and whilst I'll wait until there's a better idea of the field, I would see all the Greatwood placers going close
Report sc1883 December 11, 2012 9:26 AM GMT
The Henderson duo of Cash & Go and Lyvius could prove difficult to beat, especially Lyvius who was very impressive the other day at Newbury with Barry saying a faster pace would suit the horse better than the small field he encountered
Report sintonian December 11, 2012 10:22 AM GMT
I agree Roo. I think there might be a bit more to come from Olofi.

The dark/interesting one for me is Ranjaan.
Report sintonian December 11, 2012 10:23 AM GMT
JP McManus' gelding has won the Boxing Day Grade One twice in a row, beating Rock On Ruby last season before finishing fourth to the same rival in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Outlining possible runners for Seven Barrows in the race, representative Charlie Morlock said: "Darlan has an entry in The Ladbroke at Ascot. Grandouet will be entered for Kempton and I'm sure Darlan will be too.

"I don't think Binocular definitely goes there - he came back into training a little later and might not get to Kempton on Boxing Day."
Report knot in wood December 11, 2012 2:03 PM GMT
fancy balder succes quite strongly for this,dont look that strong a race to me if darlan dont turn up.
bs as won over c/d,goes on any ground and is still a relatively unexposed horse.
think i am right in saying he will run of 141 in this,now rated 147.
be disappointed if he cannot make the places at least.
Report BJG December 11, 2012 2:20 PM GMT
Why would he run off 141? Confused No weights out yet
Report booster December 11, 2012 2:22 PM GMT
Got to agree about Balder Succes. Stable seem to think it's a good horse and must be placed at least from that mark if it is. Beat a decent yardstick on its own patch and favoured ground at Haydock last time and has 2 course wins over further which I always like in handicap hurdles plus it looked like it had improved a lot last time with the way it travelled through the race.
Report knot in wood December 11, 2012 2:35 PM GMT
just seen is rating of 141,against this particular race bjg.
i presumed it might be a early closing race.
Report roobuck December 11, 2012 2:43 PM GMT
Balder Succes could get involved but needs it soft at best imo
Report SteveBowers December 11, 2012 8:39 PM GMT
I like another one of Hendersons here, first In The Que. Ran a great race with the handbrake firmly applied last time out at Ascot over course and distance when stablemate Petit Robin won after being well backed, no money for FITQ that day. Petit Robin came out and won well enough on Saturday at Sandown off his revised mark, so could easily see there being more to come, 25/1 is certainly generous enough in my view, but does rely on NJH running him... Come on Nicky...
Report BJG December 12, 2012 12:07 PM GMT
Raya Star (IRE) (Mr S. Munir) Alan King......................................................................... 6 11 12
Petit Robin (FR) (S W Group Logistics Limited) Nicky Henderson ..................... 9 11 12
Darlan (Mr John P. McManus) Nicky Henderson ........................................................... 5 11 8
Snap Tie (IRE) (Mrs Diana L. Whateley) Philip Hobbs .............................................. 10 11 7
Hisaabaat (IRE) (Dr R. Lambe/Dominick Glennane) D. K. Weld, Ireland ......... 4 11 5
Balder Succes (FR) (Masterson Holdings Limited) Alan King ................................. 4 11 4
Cotton Mill (Bloomfields) John Ferguson....................................................................... 5 11 2
Cash And Go (IRE) (Mr R. J. H. Geffen) Nicky Henderson .................................... 5 11 2
Olofi (FR) (McNeill Family) Tom George.......................................................................... 6 11 1
Bothy (Mr Dan Gilbert) Brian Ellison........................................................................ 6 10 13
Hammersly Lake (FR) (Mr Michael Buckley) Nicky Henderson........................... 4 10 13
Cause of Causes (USA) (Timeform Betfair Racing Club Ltd)
Gordon Elliott, Ireland........................................................................ 4 10 13
Wingtips (FR) (Ms Sheila Moffett) A. J. Martin, Ireland.............................................. 4 10 13
Rattan (USA) (Mr J. A. Coleman) W. P. Mullins, Ireland ........................................... 7 10 13
Double Ross (IRE) (Options O Syndicate) Nigel Twiston-Davies.......................... 6 10 13
Discoteca (Gigginstown House Stud) Gordon Elliott, Ireland .................................. 4 10 12
Shrapnel (IRE) (Gigginstown House Stud) Gordon Elliott, Ireland ....................... 6 10 12
Ranjaan (FR) (Highclere Thoroughbred Racing - Ranjaan) Paul Nicholls ............ 4 10 12
It’s A Gimme (IRE) (Mr John P. McManus) Jonjo O’Neill......................................... 5 10 11
Starluck (IRE) (Mr A. T. A. Wates) David Arbuthnot................................................. 7 10 11
Princeton Plains (IRE) (Mr John P. McManus) Edward Harty, Ireland ................ 6 10 10
Urbain de Sivola (FR) (Potensis Limited & Mr Chris Giles) Nick Williams ...... 4 10 9
Claret Cloak (IRE) (Hawksmoor Partnership) Emma Lavelle ................................. 5 10 7
Il Fenomeno (ITY) (Gigginstown House Stud) Noel Meade, Ireland................... 6 10 6
Rowan Tiger (Mr Paul Jenkins) Dr Richard Newland.................................................. 6 10 6
Hawkhill (IRE) (Mr R. H. D. Smith) Tim Vaughan ....................................................... 6 10 6
Kazlian (FR) (Twelve Pipers Piping) David Pipe ............................................................ 4 10 6
Thomas Edison (IRE) (Mr John P. McManus) A. J. Martin, Ireland ....................... 5 10 6
Dan Breen (IRE) (Mr Stuart & Simon Mercer) David Pipe...................................... 7 10 6
Lyvius (Mr Trevor Hemmings) Nicky Henderson........................................................... 4 10 6
Redera (IRE) (Peter William Partnership) A. J. Martin, Ireland ............................... 6 10 5
King of Queens (IRE) (Miss Ashley Scanlon) Thomas Mullins, Ireland................ 7 10 4
Rigidity (Pearn’s Pharmacies Ltd) Tim Vaughan.............................................................. 5 10 4
Bar de Ligne (FR) (Mr P. J. Martin) Steve Gollings ...................................................... 6 10 4
Ted Spread (False Nose ’n Glasses Partnership) Paul Nicholls................................ 5 10 3
First In The Queue (IRE) (Mr Liam Breslin) Nicky Henderson............................ 5 10 3
First Avenue (Mrs L. J. Mongan) Laura Mongan............................................................ 7 10 2
Into Wain (USA) (Mr P. J. Martin) Steve Gollings ........................................................ 5 10 1
Persian Snow (IRE) (Mr D. R. Peppiatt) Philip Hobbs .............................................. 6 10 0
Capellanus (IRE) (Mrs Claire Ellison) Brian Ellison ...................................................... 6 9 11
Dontpaytheferryman (USA) (Koo’s Racing Club) Brian Ellison............................ 7 9 10
Top Wood (FR) (Lady Clarke) David Pipe ....................................................................... 5 9 9
Whitby Jack (Mr C. E. Stedman) Gary Moore............................................................... 5 9 9
Katkeau (FR) (Prof C Tisdall, Mr J A Gent, Mr R Wilkin) David Pipe................. 5 9 9
Swing Bowler (Mr D. A. Johnson) David Pipe............................................................... 5 9 8
Waterunder (IRE) (Mrs S. Clifford) David Pipe............................................................ 5 9 8
Fleet Dawn (Prism Bloodstock) Brian Ellison.................................................................. 6 9 8
Cousin Khee (Mr Raymond Tooth) Hughie Morrison.................................................. 5 9 7
Report mushroom23 December 12, 2012 12:26 PM GMT
Huge fan of Cotton Mill and think 2m is his trip, he'll have no chance whatsoever in soft ground though.
Report Workforce December 12, 2012 1:02 PM GMT
Balder Success OR is 147 not 141, why would he run off 141?
Report knot in wood December 12, 2012 1:49 PM GMT
apologies if i put anyone away with that info,was 141 on the atr website for this race.
might have picked up  a 6lb penalty for is haydock win.
Report forgotmyusername December 14, 2012 10:45 PM GMT
Anybody heard or read anywhere if King Of Queens is likely to come over for the race?
Report BJG December 14, 2012 11:45 PM GMT
Tom Mullins is considering a valuable challenge across the Irish Sea later this month for the progressive King Of Queens.

His lightly-raced seven-year-old is in the shake-up for the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot on December 22.

He made it two from two over hurdles this season with a fine performance at Fairyhouse last Saturday, and Mullins said: "At the moment, King Of Queens is likely to run in the Ladbroke but we will have a look at the weights and see then. I am very pleased with how he has come out of his race at Fairyhouse and he seems very well."

He added: "He made the running at Fairyhouse but we wouldn't do that in Ascot as there will be a faster pace going on there. I think the Ladbroke will really suit him and so will better ground.

"He has certainly surprised me with how well he has come back from injury. He had to have long enough off because of tendon injures but maybe that's the key.

"He is very well bred and hopefully he will keep improving. I think he'll be up to Graded company all right but where we go after that, I don't know."
Report BJG December 14, 2012 11:45 PM GMT
Tom Mullins is considering a valuable challenge across the Irish Sea later this month for the progressive King Of Queens.

His lightly-raced seven-year-old is in the shake-up for the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot on December 22.

He made it two from two over hurdles this season with a fine performance at Fairyhouse last Saturday, and Mullins said: "At the moment, King Of Queens is likely to run in the Ladbroke but we will have a look at the weights and see then. I am very pleased with how he has come out of his race at Fairyhouse and he seems very well."

He added: "He made the running at Fairyhouse but we wouldn't do that in Ascot as there will be a faster pace going on there. I think the Ladbroke will really suit him and so will better ground.

"He has certainly surprised me with how well he has come back from injury. He had to have long enough off because of tendon injures but maybe that's the key.

"He is very well bred and hopefully he will keep improving. I think he'll be up to Graded company all right but where we go after that, I don't know."
Report Paddy Hair December 15, 2012 7:19 AM GMT
One i will be backing as he drops down the handicap is Starluck,there is a top class handicap to be won with this horse.If i knew which one i would tell you,what was the schweppes at Newbury or the 2 mile hcap on National day at Aintree would be my favourites.
Report knot in wood December 15, 2012 10:23 AM GMT
ladbrokes are nrnb,but their prices are the lowest on nearly every horse.
Report Arklearkle December 16, 2012 2:51 PM GMT
Paddy you may be right about Starluck but he probably needs a 1m 6f hurdle race with a downhill finish.
Report BJG December 16, 2012 3:03 PM GMT
We hit the bar at Cheltenham - now we look towards going one better at Ascot
ALAN hit the crossbar yet again with the brave Walkon at Cheltenham yesterday, but there is still time to get the Christmas turkey money and, subject to coming through the week ok, both Balder Succes (Ladbroke Hurdle) and Smad Place (Long Walk Hurdle) will aim for the stars at Ascot on Saturday.
"We were lucky enough to win The Ladbroke last year with Raya Star, but he will wait for the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton this time around, so we will rely on Balder Succes at Ascot. He is in good form and will hopefully have a decent chance in what is always a very competitive handicap.
Report sintonian December 17, 2012 2:49 PM GMT
Rigidity has been beaten over fences off lower marks recently, 125, and his hurdles rating is 133. However he was 2nd to Raya Star in this last year when RS was rated 133 himself so on that form he has a good chance. 20/1 he is at the moment but i'll hold my money for the time being as he is probably not certain to run.
Report sintonian December 17, 2012 2:50 PM GMT
Can Olofi go in again off 144? He'll like the ground that is for sure.
Report roobuck December 17, 2012 3:06 PM GMT
In a word sint - yes. Has always promised a lot more and I think last time he put it all together. Really don't think he's reached his ceiling at all. Slight question mark on why he hasn't gone right-handed over this trip before but can only assume its coincidence.

I might also play Urbain de Sivola e/w if it is clear he is going to run. He'll also like the ground and 25/1 is a great price imo
Report sintonian December 17, 2012 3:10 PM GMT
I keep remembering back to last year Roo where the trainer left him in at the 5-day stage for the Xmas Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle! He was also bought by the McNeill family halfway through the season.

I wondered about Ascot aswell, probably just an anomaly. I going to join you and have a little dabble on Olofi.
Report sintonian December 17, 2012 3:20 PM GMT
The owner tweeted that the horse is in great nick and will be running.
Report roobuck December 17, 2012 3:20 PM GMT
I guess the danger is they actually may aim him at Kempton after what Tom George said about him post-race at Cheltenham! However if they think he's up to that, must take the beating off this mark and surely they'll wait to test him in a better grade later.
Report roobuck December 17, 2012 3:22 PM GMT
^ cheers sint - earlier next time please and save me typing Grin
Report sintonian December 17, 2012 3:23 PM GMT
Agree. Nonsense to go for a G1 when he's off 144 with a nice prize available. You've got to take you chances when they come in this game. Excited
Report ReaseHeath December 17, 2012 3:57 PM GMT
he was sensational in the Greatwood - despite being checked when making his first run, Brennan looked like he could win as he pleased.

So not very original but him and Cotton Mill would be the two or me - not been through the race in detail yet though.
Report BJG December 17, 2012 4:39 PM GMT
Petit Robin (FR)    9       11 12
Balder Succes (FR)    4       11 4
Cotton Mill (GB)    5       11 2
Cash And Go (IRE)    5       11 2
Olofi (FR)    6       11 1
Bothy (GB)    6       10 13
Cause of Causes (USA)    4       10 13
Rattan (USA)    7       10 13
Double Ross (IRE)    6       10 13
Discoteca (GB)    4       10 12
Ranjaan (FR)    4       10 12
It's A Gimme (IRE)    5       10 11
Starluck (IRE)    7       10 11
Princeton Plains (IRE)    6       10 10
Urbain de Sivola (FR)    4       10 9
Claret Cloak (IRE)    5       10 7
Kazlian (FR)    4       10 6
Thomas Edison (IRE)    5       10 6
Dan Breen (IRE)    7       10 6
Lyvius (GB)    4       10 6
King of Queens (IRE)    7       10 4
Rigidity (GB)    5       10 4
Bar de Ligne (FR)    6       10 4
First In The Queue (IRE)    5       10 3
First Avenue (GB)    7       10 2
Into Wain (USA)    5       10 1
Capellanus (IRE)    6       9 11
Dontpaytheferryman (USA)    7       9 10
Top Wood (FR)    5       9 9
Whitby Jack (GB)    5       9 9
Katkeau (FR)    5       9 9
Swing Bowler (GB)    5       9 8
Waterunder (IRE)    5       9 8
Fleet Dawn (GB)    6       9 8
Cousin Khee (GB)    5       9 7
Report sintonian December 17, 2012 6:34 PM GMT
8 four year-old's running this year. They are 0-32 overall, though 8 placed.

Of course it is just a STAT, and Unioniste proved them wrong on the weekend.
Report roobuck December 18, 2012 9:35 PM GMT
In terms of value, the more I looked at the price of Urbain de Sivola the harder I found it to resist playing him.

I'm not sure that overall he is that well treated but if you compare one piece of form with Ranjaan, its easy to see the angle - beat him 10 lenghts, now 3lb better off and 3 times the price.

Obviously Nicholls has improved his horse and has proved pretty consisten but on the forecast soft ground, the price differential made it worth a play.

That being said, looking at their ratings along with the other 4yos, makes me more confident about Olofi.
Report Markphisto December 18, 2012 11:47 PM GMT
Agree with those supporting Olofi....question is when to back him? No real moves for him in the market. May be able to back him @ 12's e/w 5 places after the decs, or at even bigger on here when there is more liquidity in the market....any thoughts??
Report stevo1 December 19, 2012 3:10 AM GMT
Cash and Go to pay xmas xs for me on at 10s, will love the going on Saturday!
Report roobuck December 19, 2012 7:18 AM GMT
Cash and Go sure to go well and someone on here said that had not seen a more impressive horse after been seen in paddock at Cheltenham. I think that he is 4lb better off with Olofi but the way the race was run just think Olofi can cope with it. However young horse with bags of potential improvement.

I think prices will tighten up after decs as some will surely not run after the rain arrives. Also not sure if there will be enough runners for 1st 5 but could be wrong.
Report sintonian December 19, 2012 9:49 AM GMT
I think you may be right Markphisto. Olofi is not really a horse punters like or have much faith in. He could be bigger on the day imo.

I like Urbain also Roo. Had a win bet on him in the Triumph last season due to his impressive form. If he is declared I may back him also.
Report sintonian December 19, 2012 2:13 PM GMT
Emma Lavelle hopes the wet weather forecast is wide of the mark ahead of Claret Cloak's bid to extend the Andover trainer's good form in The Ladbroke at Ascot on Saturday
Sky Bet



The five-year-old finished a two-length third to Raya Star over the same course and distance in early November and only carries 3lb more at the weekend.

However, the forecast of rain leading up to the weekend has dampened Lavelle's enthusiasm somewhat.

She said: "I'm not pleased with the forecast, but as long as it's not heavy I'd imagine we'll run.


"He'll probably take his chance because he's got so many things going for him.

"The way the race will be run will be perfect - he ran well there last time and only went up 3lb.

"I can tell from his work at home that he's improved.

"If it was at Chepstow or Haydock he probably wouldn't be running, but Ascot never gets too deep so we'll probably run.
Report BJG December 20, 2012 11:30 AM GMT
1     39-511    Petit Robin14      9    11-12    Nicky Henderson65    Mr N de Boinville7     155    141    153
2     1FU-31    Balder Succes28      4    11-4    Alan King68    Robert Thornton     147    134    153
3     1115-2    Cash And Go34      5    11-2    Nicky Henderson65    Barry Geraghty     145    147    156
4     2F50-1    Olofi34 tp      6    11-1    Tom George40    Paddy Brennan     144    147    155
5     27/243    Bothy21    6    10-13    Brian Ellison58    Patrick Corbett7     142    148    155
6     712613    Cause Of Causes34      4    10-13    Gordon Elliott50    Davy Condon     142    147    155
7     201316    Rattan34      7    10-13    W P Mullins68     142    149    164
8     32F14    Double Ross28      6    10-13    Nigel Twiston-Davies43    Sam Twiston-Davies     142    154    160
9     2F11-    Ranjaan338 t      4    10-12    Paul Nicholls65    R Walsh     141    127    153
10     1218-2    It´s A Gimme49      5    10-11    Jonjo O´Neill39    A P McCoy     140    153    157
11     151-62    Princeton Plains93      6    10-10    Edward P Harty50    Niall P Madden     139    140    164
12     04-148    Urbain De Sivola41      4    10-9    Nick Williams67    Nick Scholfield     138    116    146
13     1147-0    Kazlian34      4    10-6    David Pipe59    Tom Scudamore     135    153    156
14     F12P72    Thomas Edison49 t      5    10-6    A J Martin50    Mark Walsh     135    124    156
15     03-P33    Dan Breen8 p      7    10-6    David Pipe59    Francis Hayes10     135    142    161
16     1217-1    Lyvius23      4    10-6    Nicky Henderson65    Jeremiah McGrath5     135    121    159
17     68P-52    Rigidity43 tp      5    10-4    Tim Vaughan38    Richard Johnson     133    118    157
18     638-25    Bar De Ligne28      6    10-4    Steve Gollings75    Dougie Costello     133    152    156
19     P-1902    First In The Queue29      5    10-3    Nicky Henderson65    Andrew Tinkler     132    128    158
20     216-3F    First Avenue42      7    10-2    Laura Mongan100    Tom Cannon3     131    122    159
21     1146-2    Into Wain14      5    10-1    Steve Gollings75    Brian Hughes     130    137    154
Report roobuck December 20, 2012 11:50 AM GMT
Thanks BJG. Relieved that UDS is declared as in retrospect I jumped too early, and if had waited could have NRNB concession at 25/1 - not the smartest play.

That being said I still think he'll run a really good race and is one that will love the ground.
Report sintonian December 20, 2012 1:00 PM GMT
Richard Johnson booked to ride Rigidity. Was 33/1 this morning in a few places, tops 25 now. I wonder if there was a bulletin in the RP from trainer?

I've not backed him yet anyway.

Olofi is now 14/1 with Korral.
Report roobuck December 20, 2012 1:38 PM GMT
Rigidity was always highly thought of at Warren Place so I would suggest he is a talented horse

If you take his form in this last year literally he could be very well treated. Ascot is one course that horse seem to love or hate on the flat - is it the same over jumps?
Report Desmond Orchard December 20, 2012 1:41 PM GMT
No Cotton Mill? Cry Ground I suppose?
I genuinely think that this one wouldn't look out of place in this seasons champion hurdle field and if they're gonna start him off in a 'cap off 145, I'll be on, whenever, wherever.
Report sintonian December 20, 2012 4:52 PM GMT
Don't think so Roo.

Going is now Heavy. I reckon this may be abandoned as Saturdays forecast aint pretty,
Report ACStafford December 20, 2012 5:08 PM GMT
Dessie, He's been entered in the Christmas Hurdle. Crazy to ruin his handicap mark by running him in a Grade 1. Lets hope he gets pulled out due to soft ground again.
Report Brooksielad December 20, 2012 5:34 PM GMT
Princeton plains for me. Will love the ground.
Report conditor December 20, 2012 7:03 PM GMT
Kazilian is the one to be on at these weights, just needs to settle ,and treat the hurdles with a little more respect
Report Mystic Wind December 20, 2012 11:34 PM GMT
Can't believe Olofi is still double-figures. I've backed him ante-post at 12/1 and there's 14/1 available now! It's possible that he's a quirky so-and-so, but then again he might just be late-maturing (bit like my teenage son!). I was impressed with the way he quickened after being checked at HQ lto. Soft ground holds no fears - although going right-handed is a bit of an unknown. A few ifs and buts, but more than compensated for with the price imo.

1pt Olofi @ 12/1
Report Colldogg December 21, 2012 2:14 AM GMT
Big runner 2mile handicap hurdles are by far my least favorite national hunt race to punt on, however I think LYVIUS has a very good chance on Saturday.

His win at Newbury looked like he had a lot more in reserve than the winning margin suggested. He was idling in front a long way from home. Edgardo Sol is a very decent benchmark. Jeremiah McGrath takes 5lbs off too which will help in this ground. He will be primed for a big run.

The negatives are he isn't great value at 8/1. I will be waiting until the day and hope he goes out to around 10/1-11/1 for an each way punt. Also his jockey isn't my favorite 5lb claimer around too. All in all though I think he's the biggest potential improver, even given the fact he's gone up 8lbs for his Newbury win.

Another alternative I would put up is Cash and Go. However at a shorter price than Lyvius and going up 5lbs for his 2nd to Olofi then I would not be tempted at the price.

Kazlian is a horse I really like too, however I think he's going to be a spring horse and one that needs good ground to show his best form.
Report Markphisto December 21, 2012 6:09 PM GMT
Agree Mystic Wind. Think Olofi is great value at the prices (particularly compared to Cash & Go). If you just look at his runs on soft ground he has been very consistent and I think he really must be in the shake up. Here's hoping he pays for the Xmas expenses Excited
Report sintonian December 21, 2012 8:06 PM GMT
Olofi might be pwise ? 12 into 8 with 365, 11 into 9 with slybet (5places), top price 11's now.
Report sintonian December 21, 2012 8:09 PM GMT
18mm forecast between now and racing, going is Heavy,Soft. No guarantee this goes ahead.
Report sintonian December 21, 2012 8:13 PM GMT
Last of the 11's gone. Tops 10 now.
Report sintonian December 21, 2012 8:14 PM GMT
3.65 have actually cut him into 7s now. That's two cuts in the last 20 mins.

Is there a non-runner or summat?
Report roobuck December 21, 2012 8:14 PM GMT
I know sint, I'll be a little gutted if its abandoned. Really do think Tom's got it right

I agree think it must his choice as price changed just after 8, when paper available on iPad
Report turnip turns December 21, 2012 8:24 PM GMT
pwise is olofi and first avenuePlain
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 22, 2012 10:49 AM GMT
Like Olofi but is anyone else worried about him going right handed ?
Report Deptford December 22, 2012 11:24 AM GMT
They should ride him backwards
Report penzance December 22, 2012 11:30 AM GMT
Had a nice bet on Princeton Plains,30+ on here.
Got form on heavy but trainer states  wants no
worse than soft,(which seems strange).
Also on about 7s pl market.Looking forward to
this race.
   GL ALL
Report GoldCupWinner December 22, 2012 3:27 PM GMT
I guess you could argue the winner was a big price given the prices of the two in front of him last time. Cash and Go backers must feel ul. Would surely have went close.
Report Facts December 22, 2012 3:34 PM GMT
Balder Success backers feeling well pissed off with the shocking ride it was given
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 22, 2012 5:05 PM GMT
Was expecting it start in handy position but i guess thats what you get if you let it spend its life in small runner fields.
Report sintonian December 22, 2012 8:09 PM GMT
well done if you backed that. He was overpriced in relation to C&G who went off fave, but there were so many fancies for this race something had to drift.

Olofi either hated going rated, or, more likely, was just not good enough today.
Report sintonian December 22, 2012 8:09 PM GMT
*hated going right handed
Report Markphisto December 22, 2012 9:17 PM GMT
Disappointed with Olofi today alright, should have been right there on the book.

Will be keeping an eye out for Rebel Fitz's return to the track however. Gave Cause of Causes 19lb and a beating in the Galway Hurdle !
Report roobuck December 23, 2012 10:14 AM GMT
If it is soft I can still see Olofi being competitive and whilst I'll wait until there's a better idea of the field, I would see all the Greatwood placers going close

So wrong about Olofi who I backed and ran a shocker - too free for his own good in the early stages. Cannot believe winner went off 25/1 Sad
Report 1st time poster December 23, 2012 1:22 PM GMT
as all you clever people were on olifi at 14,s 16,s ,then tipped by pricewise, why are you all wetting your knickers that a horse well beat by olifi started at 25,s
what price would you expect it to start bearing in mind your pockets were full of 16 to 1 vouchers for olifi, Confused
Report GoldCupWinner December 23, 2012 3:35 PM GMT
Guess it's a fair point. Noone gutted they didn't back Bothy and he was even beeter off although had been hammered on heavy ground in between.
Report roobuck December 23, 2012 3:47 PM GMT
1st time poster, don't be such an arse. Not sure anyone claimed to be on Olofi at 14/16s and only one person referenced the winner's price - but hardly wetting my knickers.

The difference between the winner and Bothy is that Cause of Causes is still only 4 and so plenty of scope for improvement.
Report GoldCupWinner December 23, 2012 4:25 PM GMT
And had winning form right handed!
Report sintonian December 23, 2012 7:22 PM GMT
It's called post-race analysis, albeit lacking in detail. All we've mentioned is that the winners SP was overrpriced in relation to the favourite who was sent of 13/2? Would you not agree.

No idea why you are trying to be clever.
Report sintonian December 23, 2012 7:23 PM GMT
I dont recall anyone saying they had 16's on Olofi either, but I could be wrong.
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