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Long Run 7/2 - Terrible price for a horse just doesn't look the same force as old. People can only back him on faith alone. I want him to run from the front and use his stamina against these. It's the only way he can win this as he lacks speed. Would be for i/r play if he does take it up on the 2nd circuit. But now at 7/2 he's not any kind of betting prospect in a hot renewal. Seems connections think his 2 battles with Kauto last season may have taken a lot out of him as it looks like based on his last 3 runs.
Al Ferof 6/1 - Proved what I said about him in the Paddy Power, ;ast season he was always going flat out over 2m and he clearly needs further as his breeding suggested (half brother to Neptune Collonges). So when upped in trip he showed his class winning the Paddy Power with plenty in hand. The step up again to 3m is of no worry, and he looks very well suited to this kind of race. But 6/1 is about right, or maybe a shade too short given the strength in depth of this field. 8/1 and he'd be a great bet. (I've backed at 14/1 and 10/1)
Cue Card 8/1 - Facile win on reappearance, but 2nd to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle was a great run. It's a shame Al Ferof made a bad mistake as it would be interesting to have seen how close they both were to each other. The step up in trip, like with al Ferof will benefit Cue Card, but limits of stamina more under question with him than Alf. 8/1 a bit too skinny to take a chance on, but a horse I like very much for the Ryanair.
Riverside Theatre 8/1 - Lovely horse that did me a huge favour when winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham. Geraghty will be riding Finians Rainbow which is a negative for RT. Also while he is a good horse he just lacks scope for improvement at this stage in his career and you get the feeling he's just that bit short of winning the top class races like this.
Sizing Europe 10/1 - For me, tailor made for this race. Especially if it's run on good ground. He gallops and jumps and doesn't stop. That's what he does. He's run 2nd twice in heavy ground conditions in 3m Grade 1 chase at Down Royal, which would show his stamina is there. Yes he's rising 11 but could have been a dual champion chaser if they hadn't omitted the final fence at Cheltenham in March. At 10/1 he is a great bet considering his top class credentials as opposed the questions over some of the others in this field.
Grands Crus 12/1 - I'd be keen to forgive this horse his last 2 runs as it's clear as the light of day he had a breathing problem. But to me running him in this after a breathing op last month is far too soon. He should be given an easier task to put him right fir a crack at Cheltenham. I want him to skip this, as can't back him for those reasons yet do believe a breathing op will return him to form.
Captain Chris 12/1 - I'd be wary of the form of his win lto, Finians didn't go a yard. Ghizao who likes soft ground was too close for me. While FNS did excellent to come 2nd on ground he also would have disliked. So with questions over the form of that race and the horses general unreliability to boot. 12/1 isn't the kind of price I'd be interested in taking.
Finians Rainbow 12/1 - Now here is a horse who has become a very backable price. I take the opinion that neither he, nor Sizing Europe are 2milers, not even last season. I think they were just a class above the rest that they could win over 2m despite being better over further. Forgive his run lto where Geraghty insists it was the ground, while I also don't think he's a big lover of Ascot as he lost on soft there too last year. Then you have his Champ Chase and Melling wins on good ground to guide you. Which to me showed a horse who has King George written all over him. The loss lto is simply a benefit giving us such a tasty price.
Kauto Stone 18/1 or 16/1 - Is a big improver since he was upped to 3m lto, beating game Hennessy 3rd First Lieutenant at Down Royal, he is only young and will be a big improver this season. He won't have Ruby in the saddle, but given he has no Lexus entry he will run here. One who will certainly stay, is totally unexposed and worth giving a chance at the prices. (already backed at 36.0)
Champion Court 33/1 - As much as I like this horse he is certainly best at Cheltenham on good ground. So a run and loss here would be really nice for his Ryanair odds. Which is certainly his target this season.
Al Ferof 6/1 - Proved what I said about him in the Paddy Power, ;ast season he was always going flat out over 2m and he clearly needs further as his breeding suggested (half brother to Neptune Collonges). So when upped in trip he showed his class winning the Paddy Power with plenty in hand. The step up again to 3m is of no worry, and he looks very well suited to this kind of race. But 6/1 is about right, or maybe a shade too short given the strength in depth of this field. 8/1 and he'd be a great bet. (I've backed at 14/1 and 10/1)
Cue Card 8/1 - Facile win on reappearance, but 2nd to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle was a great run. It's a shame Al Ferof made a bad mistake as it would be interesting to have seen how close they both were to each other. The step up in trip, like with al Ferof will benefit Cue Card, but limits of stamina more under question with him than Alf. 8/1 a bit too skinny to take a chance on, but a horse I like very much for the Ryanair.
Riverside Theatre 8/1 - Lovely horse that did me a huge favour when winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham. Geraghty will be riding Finians Rainbow which is a negative for RT. Also while he is a good horse he just lacks scope for improvement at this stage in his career and you get the feeling he's just that bit short of winning the top class races like this.
Sizing Europe 10/1 - For me, tailor made for this race. Especially if it's run on good ground. He gallops and jumps and doesn't stop. That's what he does. He's run 2nd twice in heavy ground conditions in 3m Grade 1 chase at Down Royal, which would show his stamina is there. Yes he's rising 11 but could have been a dual champion chaser if they hadn't omitted the final fence at Cheltenham in March. At 10/1 he is a great bet considering his top class credentials as opposed the questions over some of the others in this field.
Grands Crus 12/1 - I'd be keen to forgive this horse his last 2 runs as it's clear as the light of day he had a breathing problem. But to me running him in this after a breathing op last month is far too soon. He should be given an easier task to put him right fir a crack at Cheltenham. I want him to skip this, as can't back him for those reasons yet do believe a breathing op will return him to form.
Captain Chris 12/1 - I'd be wary of the form of his win lto, Finians didn't go a yard. Ghizao who likes soft ground was too close for me. While FNS did excellent to come 2nd on ground he also would have disliked. So with questions over the form of that race and the horses general unreliability to boot. 12/1 isn't the kind of price I'd be interested in taking.
Finians Rainbow 12/1 - Now here is a horse who has become a very backable price. I take the opinion that neither he, nor Sizing Europe are 2milers, not even last season. I think they were just a class above the rest that they could win over 2m despite being better over further. Forgive his run lto where Geraghty insists it was the ground, while I also don't think he's a big lover of Ascot as he lost on soft there too last year. Then you have his Champ Chase and Melling wins on good ground to guide you. Which to me showed a horse who has King George written all over him. The loss lto is simply a benefit giving us such a tasty price.
Kauto Stone 18/1 or 16/1 - Is a big improver since he was upped to 3m lto, beating game Hennessy 3rd First Lieutenant at Down Royal, he is only young and will be a big improver this season. He won't have Ruby in the saddle, but given he has no Lexus entry he will run here. One who will certainly stay, is totally unexposed and worth giving a chance at the prices. (already backed at 36.0)
Champion Court 33/1 - As much as I like this horse he is certainly best at Cheltenham on good ground. So a run and loss here would be really nice for his Ryanair odds. Which is certainly his target this season.
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he won the Gold Cup cos Kauto Denman and IC were nowhere near their best,What a Friend nearly beat Kauto!!
hes beaten KS at Kempton when we all know Kauto was below par,and a few non stayers.
He may beat a few non stayers again,but that wont make him a 180 horse,cos he aint.
hes beaten KS at Kempton when we all know Kauto was below par,and a few non stayers.
He may beat a few non stayers again,but that wont make him a 180 horse,cos he aint.
Until his form at Kempton determines otherwise he is a 176 - 180 horse at Kempton.
As i have said not one horse that has finished behind Long Run in the KG contradicts this rating.
As i have said not one horse that has finished behind Long Run in the KG contradicts this rating.
He ran to about 168 at Haydock. First time out, he has needed the run the last two seasons. How much will he come on? Also Kempton is is favoured track.
Did he have a hard race?
Did he have a hard race?
Ok mate,you carry on believing the ratings are accurate,especially those horses that are rated on form over less than 3m.
Long Run could beat a horse with the same rating by any distance as long as he stays and the other dont.
Long Run could beat a horse with the same rating by any distance as long as he stays and the other dont.
Well that just goes to show the difference between the true 3 milers and those stepping up in trip.
If Long Run stays better than the rest then how can you turn that into a negative. So i guess you are putting a line through Captain Chris and Riverside Theatre as non stayers?
If Long Run stays better than the rest then how can you turn that into a negative. So i guess you are putting a line through Captain Chris and Riverside Theatre as non stayers?
His negative is his jumping not his staying power.
If he jumped better i would rate him higher.
Riverside THeatre imo is not a top 3miler,he did not stay well enough last time in the KG and wont again imo.
Long Run will beat him again i think.
Captain Chris i aint sure about,hes unreliable.His best form is over a lot shorter than 3m,but something says to me that he may be capable if getting him on the right day.
If he jumped better i would rate him higher.
Riverside THeatre imo is not a top 3miler,he did not stay well enough last time in the KG and wont again imo.
Long Run will beat him again i think.
Captain Chris i aint sure about,hes unreliable.His best form is over a lot shorter than 3m,but something says to me that he may be capable if getting him on the right day.
Even taking out Denman and Kauto Star for those who claim that they weren't anywhere near their best (although i personally don't think they ran that much below their best on that track as Denman was always better than KS at Cheltenham and if you took out Long Run would people be talking about how they weren't the same horse etc) the other horses behind Long Run in his winning Gold Cup haven't done badly since: -
China Rock - Punch Gold Cup
Curruthers - Hennessy
Weird Al - Charlie Hall
Neptune Collonges - Grand National
Tidal Bay - Whitbred / second in Hennessy off 166 to current Gold Cup fav
Midnight Chase - Cotswold Chase and general Cheltenham specialist
It was a quality Gold Cup run in a very fast time although obviously the ground and savage pace assisted greatly. It could be argued that Kauto Star would have finished where he did in the 2011 Gold Cup in any previous Gold Cup should he have been ridden the same way given how early he took it up and how fast the relentless pace was. Personally i never thought he truly stayed a properly run Gold Cup and only won it twice through his sheer class in slowly run races at critical points.
So Long Run's Gold Cup win was clearly a 180+ performance for me and his two runs in the King George have also clearly been 180+ performances for me whatever way i look at it i agree with AG. Away from Kempton and his winning Gold Cup i agree he hasn't shown the same form and would go with the 170ish rating but his Cup finals have always been the King George and Gold Cup so in reality he has only disappointed once which was in last seasons Gold Cup where he jumped much better than the year before but the engine just wasn't quite the same. Will it be on boxing day, well given he has had a long time to recover from his brutal Gold Cup win, at 4/1 it is a price worth finding out for me (assuming Sir Des Champs doesn't turn up).
China Rock - Punch Gold Cup
Curruthers - Hennessy
Weird Al - Charlie Hall
Neptune Collonges - Grand National
Tidal Bay - Whitbred / second in Hennessy off 166 to current Gold Cup fav
Midnight Chase - Cotswold Chase and general Cheltenham specialist
It was a quality Gold Cup run in a very fast time although obviously the ground and savage pace assisted greatly. It could be argued that Kauto Star would have finished where he did in the 2011 Gold Cup in any previous Gold Cup should he have been ridden the same way given how early he took it up and how fast the relentless pace was. Personally i never thought he truly stayed a properly run Gold Cup and only won it twice through his sheer class in slowly run races at critical points.
So Long Run's Gold Cup win was clearly a 180+ performance for me and his two runs in the King George have also clearly been 180+ performances for me whatever way i look at it i agree with AG. Away from Kempton and his winning Gold Cup i agree he hasn't shown the same form and would go with the 170ish rating but his Cup finals have always been the King George and Gold Cup so in reality he has only disappointed once which was in last seasons Gold Cup where he jumped much better than the year before but the engine just wasn't quite the same. Will it be on boxing day, well given he has had a long time to recover from his brutal Gold Cup win, at 4/1 it is a price worth finding out for me (assuming Sir Des Champs doesn't turn up).
Just out of interest budd, where would you have LR's rating?
I think this race is between 3 horses.
Long Run - we know all about him
Sir Des Champs - I think he will win if he runs but could run in Ireland instead)
Grands Crus - The well being of the horse is a massive ? after his shocking performance in the PP but his feltham win and wind op would make him interesting should he run)
If SDC and GC don't run then there's only one bet for me
Long Run - we know all about him
Sir Des Champs - I think he will win if he runs but could run in Ireland instead)
Grands Crus - The well being of the horse is a massive ? after his shocking performance in the PP but his feltham win and wind op would make him interesting should he run)
If SDC and GC don't run then there's only one bet for me
Hard to say Roo,i aint an expert on ratings,but i kinow in many races hes been nowhere near 180,and those he was rated around that mark i have question marks about.
Reckon probably low 170's would be his average rating based on what ive seen.
Why are we making excuses for the last Gold Cup,i did not see any,i think thats how good he is.
The close proximity of WAF to Kauto and Denman tells me all i need to know about the Gold Cup he won.
We have to form an opinion on horses at some time,thats mine on Long Run,if im wrong as some suggest then fine,so be it.
The end of the day this race hinges on horses that may stay or may not stay.If any of AF,SE,CC and FR stay,i would expect them to beat Long Run,to me they are better jumpers,and more classy and will prove it,as they have to of course.
If none of them stay well enough,then Long Run could well win the race.
Reckon probably low 170's would be his average rating based on what ive seen.
Why are we making excuses for the last Gold Cup,i did not see any,i think thats how good he is.
The close proximity of WAF to Kauto and Denman tells me all i need to know about the Gold Cup he won.
We have to form an opinion on horses at some time,thats mine on Long Run,if im wrong as some suggest then fine,so be it.
The end of the day this race hinges on horses that may stay or may not stay.If any of AF,SE,CC and FR stay,i would expect them to beat Long Run,to me they are better jumpers,and more classy and will prove it,as they have to of course.
If none of them stay well enough,then Long Run could well win the race.
The end of the day this race hinges on horses that may stay or may not stay.If any of AF,SE,CC and FR stay
And if they are beaten 10L by Long Run you will slag off the form by saying he beat a bunch of non stayers.
And if they are beaten 10L by Long Run you will slag off the form by saying he beat a bunch of non stayers.
Well its true mate,we have Long Run the proven stayer against up and coming horses with good form over less.Plus Sizing Europe who has proven class over less.
And he wont be beating the likes of them 10l if they stay well.
I wont slag him off, he will be a worthy winner as he was last time he won the race,but i may put it it into perspective as re ratings.
And he wont be beating the likes of them 10l if they stay well.
I wont slag him off, he will be a worthy winner as he was last time he won the race,but i may put it it into perspective as re ratings.
Fair enough Bud.
Out of interest, How do you think Long Run will fair against the Giant Bolster and would you have backed Synchronised to beat Long Run in the King George??
Out of interest, How do you think Long Run will fair against the Giant Bolster and would you have backed Synchronised to beat Long Run in the King George??
yeh ok ,i see yer point.
I think Long Run would probably beat TGB in the KG,but it would depend on the odds re Synchronised.
For instance TGB is a lot bigger odds for the Gold Cup than Long Run,so if Synch had been a lot bigger price in the KG i would have been tempted.
I think Long Run would probably beat TGB in the KG,but it would depend on the odds re Synchronised.
For instance TGB is a lot bigger odds for the Gold Cup than Long Run,so if Synch had been a lot bigger price in the KG i would have been tempted.
Truth of the matter is that a horse needs to in the form of his entire life to win the Gold Cup.
Synchronised showed that he was by storming home in the Lexus before winning the Gold Cup. I am sure though that Long Run downed tools at Cheltenham. He was not firing. If you didn`t know him. you would say he was a non stayer, and that`s not the case. He just wasn`t at the top of his game.
I think we have been too spoilt in thinking retaining the GC is straight forward for a class horse but it`s not. The KG is a much more straight forward race as history suggests by the amount of multiple winners or horses who consistently run well.
Synchronised showed that he was by storming home in the Lexus before winning the Gold Cup. I am sure though that Long Run downed tools at Cheltenham. He was not firing. If you didn`t know him. you would say he was a non stayer, and that`s not the case. He just wasn`t at the top of his game.
I think we have been too spoilt in thinking retaining the GC is straight forward for a class horse but it`s not. The KG is a much more straight forward race as history suggests by the amount of multiple winners or horses who consistently run well.
For what it's worth, i agree with almost everything BUDD has said about LONG RUN. I would like to just put one opinion into the fire in that i am of the belief that he has come along at the wrong time in that he could have become a next top class horse but 2 hard seasons i.e winning the KG then GC in that year then coming and having 2 hard races against a revived Kauto Star and then that gold cup has done him for his career. In other words, he started in top class races too early. If they waited one year i think things may well have been different!
As for the race, wasnt there an excuse for Riverside Theatre the year he was beat 10+lengths? I am sure there was some kind of injury that come out of that race! I also like the look of Alf and CC for reasons already stated on this thread and i have spent the last half an hour reading through it lol.
For what it's worth, i think Bob's Worth could be the next Best Mate! Though fleminstar may well have something to say about that
As for the race, wasnt there an excuse for Riverside Theatre the year he was beat 10+lengths? I am sure there was some kind of injury that come out of that race! I also like the look of Alf and CC for reasons already stated on this thread and i have spent the last half an hour reading through it lol.
For what it's worth, i think Bob's Worth could be the next Best Mate! Though fleminstar may well have something to say about that
Good news for all who have already had a bet. Was quite surprised Segal went with a doubtful starter. More worrying news from Ireland is Mullins saying SDC is 50-50 to come over.Despite distance & first run excuse I don't think he is in a hurry to take on Flemenstar again & may view Kempton as easier option. Hopefully not as I think it would win.
Hope they reconsider Silviniaco Conti for this...
Big Buck's likely out for season too, WTF...something weird gone on an Ditcheat!
Gutted
Went into ladbrokes to bet Cue Card tother day and it was single manned ( Womanned )
Dozy bint took forwver with line of customers then trying to find "WHERE" it was running I gave up and fukkked off as I was on double yellows, now it's 9/2
My fault I know but fukking single manning with soppy tarts thet wouldn't know the King George from the FA Cup
Not backing now at 9/2, whoooooosh , this gaggas up now
Went into ladbrokes to bet Cue Card tother day and it was single manned ( Womanned )
Dozy bint took forwver with line of customers then trying to find "WHERE" it was running I gave up and fukkked off as I was on double yellows, now it's 9/2
My fault I know but fukking single manning with soppy tarts thet wouldn't know the King George from the FA Cup
Not backing now at 9/2, whoooooosh , this gaggas up now
KING GEORGE
SIR DES CHAMPS 12/1 @366
3 WIN 1 PLACE 1/4 odds
i have no clue if it is coming over but prepared to pay to find out
SIR DES CHAMPS 12/1 @366
3 WIN 1 PLACE 1/4 odds
i have no clue if it is coming over but prepared to pay to find out
Massive blow for the race yesterday,first its reported that Sizing Europe aint coming over and then the news re Al Ferof.Those 2 horses were the ones i was most interested to see.
All of a sudden the race looks a lot less appealing to me,although maybe SDC comes over-hope so.
Looking at the betting last night i just could not find a horse i wanted to bet on!!
Not sure i will bother with a bet to be honest.
Only consolation is that i have not played antepost.
All of a sudden the race looks a lot less appealing to me,although maybe SDC comes over-hope so.
Looking at the betting last night i just could not find a horse i wanted to bet on!!
Not sure i will bother with a bet to be honest.
Only consolation is that i have not played antepost.
I know Kempton is a flat track and it drains well but I can see this being the slowest ground the race has been run on for many a year. Weather forecast is um, wet. Unless the race is very tactical, I would swerve the horses of questionable stamina. Haven't had a bet yet and might end up backing one on the day by default - if there is only one in the race that will stay!
I have just backed Long Run and feel very dirty for doing so.
It was clear he was not hard ridden last time out, and he'll almost certainly improve for it. The jockey gives me the sh1ts. But the going is Gs,s with a potential 20mm more to arrive. So at best it will remain Gs,S in places. Which is pretty close to soft. I don't mind backing LR under these circs.
It was clear he was not hard ridden last time out, and he'll almost certainly improve for it. The jockey gives me the sh1ts. But the going is Gs,s with a potential 20mm more to arrive. So at best it will remain Gs,S in places. Which is pretty close to soft. I don't mind backing LR under these circs.
just a case of backing the only horse that's won a grade 1 this season imo and you can still get double figures now rubys riding.
don't you think there's a chance that ruby will stay in Ireland to ride Arvika?
he's already said he is riding Kauto Stone I think.
If I was to bet it probably would be Long Run by default but I also did that in the Gold Cup and it didn't turn out too well!
@sintonian, yes I had read this too and PN said as much on timeform radio yesterday. Interesting to see the money come for the TGB and the trainer thinks he is in good form. The one horse I really don't fancy is Cue Card which seems to have been one of the best horses backed. Couldn't put my finger on exactly why just always thought the horse was below top class over both hurdles and fences, I know the form in just losing to Bob's worth looks fantastic now but the jockey doesn't inspire confidence at all.
fallen a i would argue that cue cards form is actually top drawer ,beating al ferof 8l in the champ bumper,thrashing for non stop giving him weight ,only horse to give sprinter a race ,and giving 7lb to bobs worth and btn nose after looking all over the winner is top class form although trip and jockey raise qestion marks !
Superb and informative thread considering we're all backing against each other! Kauto Stone for me.
Yep,nowt wrong with Cue Cards form,problem is its at shorter distances,and i would agree about his jockey Foyles.
Anyway his price is ridiculous now with the doubt about him staying,and on heavyish ground by the looks of it.
Anyway his price is ridiculous now with the doubt about him staying,and on heavyish ground by the looks of it.
What's the news with runners? Captain Chris and Finians are big here compared to the bookies.
They have both been confirmed runners by the trainers Pete but I guess their odds are drifting due to the predicted ground.
The ground is clearly going to be softish, but yesterday they said 25mm of rain between now and the
race - that's bugger all. We get that before breakfast most days in Ireland.
I was going to say there are 3 horses I can't lay, but as I wrote, two of them got bet! The prices
had obviously got too big to ignore.
Anyone want 16.5 Captain Chris??
race - that's bugger all. We get that before breakfast most days in Ireland.
I was going to say there are 3 horses I can't lay, but as I wrote, two of them got bet! The prices
had obviously got too big to ignore.
Anyone want 16.5 Captain Chris??
Soft ground at Kempton but Clifford confident
BY DAVID BAXTER 8:55AM 20 DEC 2012
OVERNIGHT rain changed the going at Kempton to soft, but clerk of the course Barney Clifford is confident that next Wednesday's William Hill King George VI meeting will take place as planned.
Heavy rain hit the country on Wednesday night, with Exeter forced to abandon its card for Thursday, as 31mm of rain left the track waterlogged.
At Kempton, 21mm fell, changing the going to soft (from good to soft, soft in places). Further rain is forecast, but Clifford is happy with the state of the ground.
Speaking on Thursday morning, he said: "We had 21mm overnight and it's still raining. The ground is soft and I will walk the course again this afternoon.
"We're due another five millimetres today, then it's due to be dry Friday, then another band of rain moves in Saturday night in to Sunday, with ten millimetres forecast.
"It's pretty soft, but I don't expect any problems at this stage. We're perfectly raceable and the course is on free draining soil and copes well with wet conditions."
BY DAVID BAXTER 8:55AM 20 DEC 2012
OVERNIGHT rain changed the going at Kempton to soft, but clerk of the course Barney Clifford is confident that next Wednesday's William Hill King George VI meeting will take place as planned.
Heavy rain hit the country on Wednesday night, with Exeter forced to abandon its card for Thursday, as 31mm of rain left the track waterlogged.
At Kempton, 21mm fell, changing the going to soft (from good to soft, soft in places). Further rain is forecast, but Clifford is happy with the state of the ground.
Speaking on Thursday morning, he said: "We had 21mm overnight and it's still raining. The ground is soft and I will walk the course again this afternoon.
"We're due another five millimetres today, then it's due to be dry Friday, then another band of rain moves in Saturday night in to Sunday, with ten millimetres forecast.
"It's pretty soft, but I don't expect any problems at this stage. We're perfectly raceable and the course is on free draining soil and copes well with wet conditions."
@Foyles... as I say I can't put my finger on why I don't think the horse is going to run well. My worry would be the ground, jockey and trip which I think is enough question marks for 5.8 to be much too short. I agree though the form stands up on a pure weights and measures review
This race is starting to confuse the hell out of me.
I am starting to come around to the fact that Cue Card could skip through the ground with everything else willing to go a steady pace in the ground. Then still travelling well 3 out Cue Card quickens away and keeps on well to win.
I will end up laying it for a place on the day
I am starting to come around to the fact that Cue Card could skip through the ground with everything else willing to go a steady pace in the ground. Then still travelling well 3 out Cue Card quickens away and keeps on well to win.
I will end up laying it for a place on the day
i agree the value has long gone but i am on at much bigger prices so may be pocket talking ,if the going is good to soft i would be confident ! on heavy then its a case of who is less inconvienienced ,captain chris won on heavy and he has the same sire as cue card so a bit of hope there but clutching at straws really if its heavy .
Henry de Bromhead @HenrydeBromhead
We've definitely ruled out the King George for Sizing Europe due to the ground. The Dial A Bet chase and Lexus chase are now his two options
We've definitely ruled out the King George for Sizing Europe due to the ground. The Dial A Bet chase and Lexus chase are now his two options
peter i have enough on cue card and i dont fancy captain chris !
Roger that Foyles. Just touting for business. Can't lay 17.5 and it seems a bit of a big price!
Normally opens relatively quickly, maybe an hour or so
someone beat me to it. Very interesting decision, they have obviously taken a view there is a potential significant number of potential non-stayers and have a proven heavy ground horse to go to war with. Glad I haven't laid a penny on this one as it could be particularly interesting for a place
Still 33+ despite the £10,000 cost of supplementing.
Cue Cards price is too short now 9/2, have backed at much bigger price, will be having saver on Long Run by default as think he will outstay this field given conditions will be very testing think he may end up 7/4 chance.
Captain Chris (IRE) 8 11 10
Champion Court (IRE) 7 11 10
Cue Card (GB) 6 11 10
Finian's Rainbow (IRE) 9 11 10
For Non Stop (IRE) 7 11 10
Grands Crus (FR) 7 11 10
Hunt Ball (IRE) 7 11 10
Junior (GB) 9 11 10
Kauto Stone (FR) 6 11 10
Long Run (FR) 7 11 10
Menorah (IRE) 7 11 10
Riverside Theatre (GB) 8 11 10
Sir des Champs (FR) 6 11 10
The Giant Bolster (GB) 7 11 10
Wishfull Thinking (GB) 9 11 10
Champion Court (IRE) 7 11 10
Cue Card (GB) 6 11 10
Finian's Rainbow (IRE) 9 11 10
For Non Stop (IRE) 7 11 10
Grands Crus (FR) 7 11 10
Hunt Ball (IRE) 7 11 10
Junior (GB) 9 11 10
Kauto Stone (FR) 6 11 10
Long Run (FR) 7 11 10
Menorah (IRE) 7 11 10
Riverside Theatre (GB) 8 11 10
Sir des Champs (FR) 6 11 10
The Giant Bolster (GB) 7 11 10
Wishfull Thinking (GB) 9 11 10
WM had always said that he would make a decision about Sir des Champs about a day or two beforehand. My personal view is they will keep him in Ireland. Don't know why he would be more suited to this ground, it could well be better across the sea than at Kempton
Brooksie,
I think a few trainers will take their horses out after the weekend,if this rain persists.
FR,GC,SDC wont run imo.
Think Hobbs could take all his out.
Tizzard may be tempted to run CC,but for me it would be sensible to take him out if it came up really heavy.
Definite runners on heavy ground for me:
Junior,Kauto Stone,Long Run,RT and TGB.
Doubts about all the others if trainers think sensibly,thats my take on it.
I think a few trainers will take their horses out after the weekend,if this rain persists.
FR,GC,SDC wont run imo.
Think Hobbs could take all his out.
Tizzard may be tempted to run CC,but for me it would be sensible to take him out if it came up really heavy.
Definite runners on heavy ground for me:
Junior,Kauto Stone,Long Run,RT and TGB.
Doubts about all the others if trainers think sensibly,thats my take on it.
Junior being supplemented might mean Grand Crus is out ?
@sintonian, they were speculating the same on ATR. I pretty much agree with Buddeliea list, Grand Crus just didn't handle the soft going at Cheltenham and something similar and I can see him being taken out the day before. Could be a small field which would make the ante-post place market massive value for some particular horses.
Although I do think Cue Card runs regardless of the going
The heavier it gets the more you've got to fancy Long Run. The fact he has supplemented Junior speaks volumes for how many horses these conditions are going to suit. The favourite is one of them though.
Listening to Joe Tizzard earlier I think they will run CC if it's Heavy.
Junior looks a cracking each way bet in the likely conditions. Available at 66/1, being supplemented we know its a definite runner, so 16/1 the place looks far too big, with the field (in my opnion) likely to cut up.
You must have moved fast to get the 66/1 best I could see was 50s now
Yeah. My £2.50ew must have scared Vic! 50s still looks overpriced I reckon.
You must know Vic personally if he let you have £2.50 on e/w
you always get nervousness in the run up to the suspension of the market, people worried about the going, risk of the horse not running and all that stuff, £25k matched on him
Yeah bit too swift with that post, someones just stuck 300 on it taking all the 5.9 leaving the rest at 5.8 i see 
he's 5.6 to back now
you will see various fluctuations between now and the suspension, especially with low liquidity people get nervous trying to change their position
clerk of the course is confident it will be just soft and perfectly raceable, hope he's right
you will see various fluctuations between now and the suspension, especially with low liquidity people get nervous trying to change their position
clerk of the course is confident it will be just soft and perfectly raceable, hope he's right
Judo,its soft now.
With rain forecast 4 of the next 6 days inc boxing day,hes being very optimistic saying soft ground imo.
Good to look on the positive side,but as far as puntings involved i would be looking at heavy ground horses next week.
With rain forecast 4 of the next 6 days inc boxing day,hes being very optimistic saying soft ground imo.
Good to look on the positive side,but as far as puntings involved i would be looking at heavy ground horses next week.
yeh,me too.
Judo,
Whats your thoughts on it being called off and run in January on better ground?
Judo,
Whats your thoughts on it being called off and run in January on better ground?
no chance really mate, was 1.06 to be 'on' in the Will racing go ahead? market earlier today
Sorry,
What i meant was would you be happy with that for your bet with VC.
It may give Cue Card more chance of winning the race if it were run at a later date.
What i meant was would you be happy with that for your bet with VC.
It may give Cue Card more chance of winning the race if it were run at a later date.
hmm, well it makes little difference really because of the replacement bet part
in an ideal world it would be run mid January on good to soft and CC would win and go straight to the Gold Cup
but I'm not at all frightened of the going, if the horse is as good as I think he might be he will on any surface
and if he isn't that good he wouldn't win under any conditions
so all in all I would rather the race goes ahead as planned, traditional innit on Boxing Day and I'm really looking forward to it
in an ideal world it would be run mid January on good to soft and CC would win and go straight to the Gold Cup
but I'm not at all frightened of the going, if the horse is as good as I think he might be he will on any surface
and if he isn't that good he wouldn't win under any conditions
so all in all I would rather the race goes ahead as planned, traditional innit on Boxing Day and I'm really looking forward to it
yeh its traditional and all that,and it would be a shame not to sit in front of the TV and watch the KG.Massive part of xmas for years and years for me.
From another more selfish point of view though,i could go to Kempton and see the race in January,but cannot make it on Boxing Day,and i had a real good day 2 years ago.
Plus i feel it could be a bit of an anti climax boxing day if its heavy going and good horses being withdrawn.
From another more selfish point of view though,i could go to Kempton and see the race in January,but cannot make it on Boxing Day,and i had a real good day 2 years ago.
Plus i feel it could be a bit of an anti climax boxing day if its heavy going and good horses being withdrawn.
you have to remember that these horses have been prepared to run for their lives on this day so if the race is postponed a few weeks it can be hard to get them back to their best
this might have happened to Kauto in 2010
this might have happened to Kauto in 2010
yeah agree judo best to run it on the day if at all possible !
yes Foyles,but would it be better to have it on the day with few runners on heavy going?,ot have it in January on better ground with more runners?
could have a lot more rain or even snow or frost in january budd ,im probably just anxious to get it over with .
Fair enough,just that i know you are on Cue Card at nice prices and i happen to think he would have more chance of getting home on better ground,still if im wrong ahd he copes ok with heavy ground at least he will have less opposition to worry about.Im sure if it comes up heavy their will be a few withdrawals mate,never know it might just all come in your favour.
As,i think it was Judo who pointed out,whoever does line up on wednesday,none of them will probably want heavy ground,so its down to who copes best,for you i hope its Cue Card.
For me i hope its called off and re run later as it was 2 years ago,but thats just me being a selfish g!t,wanting a day at the races!!!
As,i think it was Judo who pointed out,whoever does line up on wednesday,none of them will probably want heavy ground,so its down to who copes best,for you i hope its Cue Card.
For me i hope its called off and re run later as it was 2 years ago,but thats just me being a selfish g!t,wanting a day at the races!!!
if i am truthfull budd i would prefer faster ground as the very soft is an unknown for a lot of them cue card included ..,in an ideal world a middle of january race on better ground would be ideal i suppose .and you will be able to see it at the course .thing is the peterboro chase is schedualed for kemptons xmass card and a postponement might mean a few defecting to that .
waiting for this race is worse than waiting for Father Christmas when I was about 7
judorick
20 Dec 12 21:13
Joined:
27 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 10,514 | Blogger: judorick's blog
waiting for this race is worse than waiting for Father Christmas when I was about 7
Worth a 4 start rating
Think the same thing myself
20 Dec 12 21:13
Joined:
27 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 10,514 | Blogger: judorick's blog
waiting for this race is worse than waiting for Father Christmas when I was about 7
Worth a 4 start rating
Think the same thing myself
The biggest price is 220 on here. Not often you see a race like this without something at 500+.
Show's how open it's considered to be with the ground like it is.
Show's how open it's considered to be with the ground like it is.
due to the forecast i backed LR and Kauto stone yday, KS already contracted a bit.. i think the field will be tony if we get the predicted rain, 5/6 runners maybe.
Long Run will do for me. I can see why there may be some opposition to him, but if we are to believe that Silvianaco Conti is the real deal, then his run against that opponent when Henderson clearly stated he would come on a ton, is the best on offer here. There is no Kauto Star any more, and I am a firm believer that LR is miles better going right handed. I remember clearly NH making that point when LR won at Warwick almost three years ago. His runs going LH haven't been too bad though have they?? Gold Cup not a bad race!! They still however believe that RH is best. It is very early to start crabbing this horse as he undoubtedly has serious ability. I cannot wait for the race, and fully expect SWC to silence some of his critics and win the KG again.
Clerk of the course Barney Clifford said: “It is soft, heavy in places - 60 per cent soft, 40 per cent heavy. We have some showers this afternoon, up to 10mm, and possibly more showers tomorrow.” (9 mins ago)
TGB just keeps getting backed for this! From what i can only believe must have been a telephone tipster putting it up earlier in the week and it shortening into 14s, its now into just 10.5 on here 10/1 with the books which surely wont last tomorrow if continues to be 10.5 11 area on here!!!!
Grand Crus has been the other for money. Completing guessing with that horse. The kempton form looks excellent on paper but the last two runs would feel me with dread. I thought it hated the ground at Cheltenham.
regarding tgb on gold cup form he has the beating of long run and is a guaranteed stayer with ap up so can understand the money coming for him .
Well done SWC and Long Run. A very merry Christmas!
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