Horse Antepost
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Long Run 7/2 - Terrible price for a horse just doesn't look the same force as old. People can only back him on faith alone. I want him to run from the front and use his stamina against these. It's the only way he can win this as he lacks speed. Would be for i/r play if he does take it up on the 2nd circuit. But now at 7/2 he's not any kind of betting prospect in a hot renewal. Seems connections think his 2 battles with Kauto last season may have taken a lot out of him as it looks like based on his last 3 runs.
Al Ferof 6/1 - Proved what I said about him in the Paddy Power, ;ast season he was always going flat out over 2m and he clearly needs further as his breeding suggested (half brother to Neptune Collonges). So when upped in trip he showed his class winning the Paddy Power with plenty in hand. The step up again to 3m is of no worry, and he looks very well suited to this kind of race. But 6/1 is about right, or maybe a shade too short given the strength in depth of this field. 8/1 and he'd be a great bet. (I've backed at 14/1 and 10/1)
Cue Card 8/1 - Facile win on reappearance, but 2nd to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle was a great run. It's a shame Al Ferof made a bad mistake as it would be interesting to have seen how close they both were to each other. The step up in trip, like with al Ferof will benefit Cue Card, but limits of stamina more under question with him than Alf. 8/1 a bit too skinny to take a chance on, but a horse I like very much for the Ryanair.
Riverside Theatre 8/1 - Lovely horse that did me a huge favour when winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham. Geraghty will be riding Finians Rainbow which is a negative for RT. Also while he is a good horse he just lacks scope for improvement at this stage in his career and you get the feeling he's just that bit short of winning the top class races like this.
Sizing Europe 10/1 - For me, tailor made for this race. Especially if it's run on good ground. He gallops and jumps and doesn't stop. That's what he does. He's run 2nd twice in heavy ground conditions in 3m Grade 1 chase at Down Royal, which would show his stamina is there. Yes he's rising 11 but could have been a dual champion chaser if they hadn't omitted the final fence at Cheltenham in March. At 10/1 he is a great bet considering his top class credentials as opposed the questions over some of the others in this field.
Grands Crus 12/1 - I'd be keen to forgive this horse his last 2 runs as it's clear as the light of day he had a breathing problem. But to me running him in this after a breathing op last month is far too soon. He should be given an easier task to put him right fir a crack at Cheltenham. I want him to skip this, as can't back him for those reasons yet do believe a breathing op will return him to form.
Captain Chris 12/1 - I'd be wary of the form of his win lto, Finians didn't go a yard. Ghizao who likes soft ground was too close for me. While FNS did excellent to come 2nd on ground he also would have disliked. So with questions over the form of that race and the horses general unreliability to boot. 12/1 isn't the kind of price I'd be interested in taking.
Finians Rainbow 12/1 - Now here is a horse who has become a very backable price. I take the opinion that neither he, nor Sizing Europe are 2milers, not even last season. I think they were just a class above the rest that they could win over 2m despite being better over further. Forgive his run lto where Geraghty insists it was the ground, while I also don't think he's a big lover of Ascot as he lost on soft there too last year. Then you have his Champ Chase and Melling wins on good ground to guide you. Which to me showed a horse who has King George written all over him. The loss lto is simply a benefit giving us such a tasty price.
Kauto Stone 18/1 or 16/1 - Is a big improver since he was upped to 3m lto, beating game Hennessy 3rd First Lieutenant at Down Royal, he is only young and will be a big improver this season. He won't have Ruby in the saddle, but given he has no Lexus entry he will run here. One who will certainly stay, is totally unexposed and worth giving a chance at the prices. (already backed at 36.0)
Champion Court 33/1 - As much as I like this horse he is certainly best at Cheltenham on good ground. So a run and loss here would be really nice for his Ryanair odds. Which is certainly his target this season.
Al Ferof 6/1 - Proved what I said about him in the Paddy Power, ;ast season he was always going flat out over 2m and he clearly needs further as his breeding suggested (half brother to Neptune Collonges). So when upped in trip he showed his class winning the Paddy Power with plenty in hand. The step up again to 3m is of no worry, and he looks very well suited to this kind of race. But 6/1 is about right, or maybe a shade too short given the strength in depth of this field. 8/1 and he'd be a great bet. (I've backed at 14/1 and 10/1)
Cue Card 8/1 - Facile win on reappearance, but 2nd to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle was a great run. It's a shame Al Ferof made a bad mistake as it would be interesting to have seen how close they both were to each other. The step up in trip, like with al Ferof will benefit Cue Card, but limits of stamina more under question with him than Alf. 8/1 a bit too skinny to take a chance on, but a horse I like very much for the Ryanair.
Riverside Theatre 8/1 - Lovely horse that did me a huge favour when winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham. Geraghty will be riding Finians Rainbow which is a negative for RT. Also while he is a good horse he just lacks scope for improvement at this stage in his career and you get the feeling he's just that bit short of winning the top class races like this.
Sizing Europe 10/1 - For me, tailor made for this race. Especially if it's run on good ground. He gallops and jumps and doesn't stop. That's what he does. He's run 2nd twice in heavy ground conditions in 3m Grade 1 chase at Down Royal, which would show his stamina is there. Yes he's rising 11 but could have been a dual champion chaser if they hadn't omitted the final fence at Cheltenham in March. At 10/1 he is a great bet considering his top class credentials as opposed the questions over some of the others in this field.
Grands Crus 12/1 - I'd be keen to forgive this horse his last 2 runs as it's clear as the light of day he had a breathing problem. But to me running him in this after a breathing op last month is far too soon. He should be given an easier task to put him right fir a crack at Cheltenham. I want him to skip this, as can't back him for those reasons yet do believe a breathing op will return him to form.
Captain Chris 12/1 - I'd be wary of the form of his win lto, Finians didn't go a yard. Ghizao who likes soft ground was too close for me. While FNS did excellent to come 2nd on ground he also would have disliked. So with questions over the form of that race and the horses general unreliability to boot. 12/1 isn't the kind of price I'd be interested in taking.
Finians Rainbow 12/1 - Now here is a horse who has become a very backable price. I take the opinion that neither he, nor Sizing Europe are 2milers, not even last season. I think they were just a class above the rest that they could win over 2m despite being better over further. Forgive his run lto where Geraghty insists it was the ground, while I also don't think he's a big lover of Ascot as he lost on soft there too last year. Then you have his Champ Chase and Melling wins on good ground to guide you. Which to me showed a horse who has King George written all over him. The loss lto is simply a benefit giving us such a tasty price.
Kauto Stone 18/1 or 16/1 - Is a big improver since he was upped to 3m lto, beating game Hennessy 3rd First Lieutenant at Down Royal, he is only young and will be a big improver this season. He won't have Ruby in the saddle, but given he has no Lexus entry he will run here. One who will certainly stay, is totally unexposed and worth giving a chance at the prices. (already backed at 36.0)
Champion Court 33/1 - As much as I like this horse he is certainly best at Cheltenham on good ground. So a run and loss here would be really nice for his Ryanair odds. Which is certainly his target this season.
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Kauto Stone is certainly very interesting as he hits 3 trends that has proved extremely common amongst King George winners. I have gone back to 1980 and these are:
1. Won last time out: something like 90% of the last 30 odd winners had won on their previous start 2. Only 3 times in the period studied had the winner failed to win a chase at 3 miles prior to winning the KG 3. Won a Grade 1 chase (most KG winners had won two Grade 1 chases or more) When you look at the runners you can see that Long Run did not win last time out for example, Sizing Europe, Al Ferof, Riverside Theatre and Finians Rainbow have all failed to win a chase at 3 miles and Al Ferof and Cue Card have not won a Grade 1 chase so you could argue that Kauto Stone is indeed a very nice price |
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Good write up CVB. I know most will be against Captain Chris for a number of reasons, but it is important to realise he is lbs better on decent ground as well. I still think he is talented enough to go close at his best.
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Nice stats there judorick, also Kauto Star unseated Sam in Betfair on of the years he won.
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Long Run does fit the profile of a typical King George winner more closely than any other runner but as you say the price is hardly tempting
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As much as Long Run doesn't look as good as he was, he still is the benchmark horse. He has raced 23 times and never finished worse than 3rd. 6 of his last 7 runs have been Grade 1's. Many of the runners have potential on their side, but he has it in the book. Not an AP price, but if I were a layer I wouldn't be offering fancy prices. Something could easily beat him, but he would be favourite in a match bet against all of these IMO and rightly so. However, I believe something probably will beat him, just haven't worked out who just yet.
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king george betting suspenders on here finians weak ............reasons ?
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Market Suspensions:
12pm, 4th December - Forfeit Stage  |
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those stats include Grade 1 nov chases Judo?
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I believe so
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Al Ferof won the nov Grade 1 at Sandown,that Overturn runs in Saturday.
Doubt it makes much difference to his chances in the KG,but he did win a Grade 1 mate. |
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fair enough forgot that
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Has anyone any up to date info relating to Grand Crus, It would be my opinion that his season always revolved around the KG on a track that clearly brings the best out of him. The form of his run on CD last year in a amazing time would suggest connections would be more than eager to get him right in time for the race and should he miss it he clearly isn't the same horse we seen easily beating Bobsworth and silvinaco conti. He aint going to every win a Gold Cup but a KG could be a possibility and the 12's available would look big if he were to line up.
An inside info update would be appreciated. |
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According to Pipe's column in RP, has taken op well but is only walking at present. If that's right, surely hasn't got enough time to do the necessary work for the race, even if the op has had the desired effect.
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Riverside Theatre for me &, judging on previous comments he has made, would expect Segal to tip it in RP tomorrow
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Champion Court- he is certainly best at Cheltenham on good ground
certainly? record away from Chelt: 12U122 (U= going like winner when departing)...last two 2nds= btn by Silviniaco Conti/giving 20lb to winner, 17l clr of 3rd...impossible for anyone to be certain on evidence to date |
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Al Ferof and Neptune Collonges are by the same sire. They are not half brothers.
Al Ferof's dam and grandam have yet to produce a winner over further than the PP trip. The race is full of horses unproven at 3m. The only exceptions among the likely runners are Long Run and Grands Crus who is under a cloud. If Mullins was to send Sir Des Champs over(unlikely at present seemingly) he'd be maximum bet material imo. |
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Great write up CV; is there anything from the left field at a huge price?
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Having the same sire is being a half brother. No idea what you're talking about flyingbolt
 I think you mean he's not a full brother? bluebirdfan, Kauto Stone would be the best of the outsiders tbh. He's won over 3m which most of this field have not. |
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The term half brothers in horse racing usually means the same dam. If you used the sire, there are hundreds of half brothers in training.
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yeh,half brother means the same dam not sire,
get a grip CV  |
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AF 5-1 with certain firms now, as much as i love the horse he is far too short
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My point was they share half the same DNA, as half comes from sire and half comes from Dam.
So if racing lingo wants to call a half brother only when they share the same Dam, it makes no difference to the fact they would have the same amount of DNA had the a common dam or sire. That way my point. The scale of my detestation for flat racing is immeasurable. |
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yeh,we get yer mate.
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Pedantic flat racing fans
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Looks like Sizing Europe is Pricewise
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Have him backed 10/1 and 9/1.
More interested in why Finians Rainbow is so weak in the market. |
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Unlike the past 6 years the King George is oh so tricky a race to work out this year. I wouldn't be shocked if any of the top 9 in the betting won this, I'd be a little surprised if Cue Card, Captain Chris, Riverside Theatre, or Kauto Stone won. But there's no way to rule them out on anything bar price for first 3 and experience for the latter. While Grands Crus I hope doesn't run so soon after the op, because I think the op is exactly what will return this horse to form if given time.
Al Ferof and Sizing Europe the 2 who I think have the best chances. While Finians Rainbow is weak in the market, if he's in the form he was at the end of last season he'd have a great chance too. So they are the three. That is bar... Long Run. The more I mull it over the more I think I was wrong to consider Long Run's Betfair Chase to be anything to indicate how he'll perform this season. He was going in against a race fit rival who clearly relishes the kind of sharp track like Haydock. A track not best suited to Long Run. Henderson had said of his 3 big horses that day he was most worried about the ground for Long Run, coupled with his comments of how he felt the Haydock and the King George battles against Kauto took the edge off Long Runs end of season. Which looked to be true. Trainers learn about horses, Nicholls learnt Kauto is best fresh and when he did we saw the two best performances in the Gold Cup and King George since the days of Arkle. It goes to show, trainers learn as do horses. So, what I'm getting at is that they were going to take care of Long Run in the Haydock mud and make his aim the King George and Gold Cup. Use Haydock as a stepping stone to those. From what Sam and Henderson said pre race, this is very true. So with that in mind they were not going to make the running on Long Run as I've been crying out for them to do. Why give away your hand and potentially tire your horse in a race you want to use as a stepping stone? I'm sure they will make the King George a stamina test by taking it up quite a way out when the pace looks to slacken. We all know Long Run is a one paced horse, he has a go speed and that's it. It's so obvious to us that it's even more obvious to connections. They know they have to test the stamina of a field of horses where only, the unlikely runner Grands Crus and the young Kauto Stone has ever won over the distance. It's as obvious as the nose on your face you have to test the stamina of this lot. It may be that I'm making one too many excuses for this horse. I wrote my piece on him prior to the Betfair. But in my mind the Betfair didn't answer any of those questions. The King George will. My belief is his battles with Kauto, combined with running in the Denman Chase took the edge off him for the Gold Cup where he eas flat. The King George performance was a superb run in itself running 2nd to the great King. So, it's still just that Gold Cup performance I have to forgive, I always forgive a horse a bad run. I've backed Al ferof at avg 12/1, Sizing Europe at 10/1 and smaller bets at big odds on Finians Rainbow at 25/1 and Kauto Stone at 35/1 I believe the first three mentioned above could be big trading opportunities at the 3.0 to 4.0 ish in running mark, at the point where the limits of their stamina haven't been tested. But I haven't decided what to do with Long Run yet. Is 7/2 too short to give him another chance. Is a King George / Gold Cup double the best way to alleviate my nagging belief this horse isn't yet done? Is it best to hope for 4/1 on the day and do an ew bet to nothing? I think I'm giving this horse another chance. It way may mistake to think the Betfair was anything but a stepping stone. This race is where questions will be answered. |
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If SE lines up LR wont get to the front,and even if he does his jumping wont allow him to stay there,SE will outjump him every fence imo.
Yes,hes a stayer that could well try and test them for stamina-makes sense-but his jumping just aint good enough in that regard imo. Yes 7/2 is too short for another chance imo CV. |
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excellent write up cv and i have to agree with everything u said...henderson openly expressed concerns over lr before haydock and considering king george day is his first REAL target of season i think he ran well enough....would love to see him be more forceful in races and force the issue (denman style ) mid race as he has only one speed....dont write him off yet lads !!!
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he runs ok sam,its his jumping thats not.
everytime he jumps i think hes gonna hit it,he would be some horse if he could jump like Denman used to. He never falls,but he dont half hit a lot. |
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Good write up CV and yes it really is wide open, but I agree the solid horse is Long Run
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LR has as I posted earlier never been out of the first 3 in 23 runs in spite of his jumping and at 4/1 is an EW bet to nothing. As a big outsider if he runs I would give a sniff to For Non Stop. Often the bridesmaid, but at 3m who knows?
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agree with u bud re jumping but i thought his jumping at chelters last year was best ive seen him jump and considering ground at haydock was so bad he jumped out of it ok imo....he must have some engine to finish as close as he does in all these grade 1 races if u believe his jumping is that bad !!!also the tank did make an odd earthshattering blunder ONCE OR TWICE himself
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Yeh Denman did,but he was a smashing jumper generally.
Long Run just dont look a natural at the fences to me,if he was he would be a serious horse. Hes pretty good as it is,despite his jumping,to be fair,but to bowl along and stretch potential non stayers he has to be real good and quick at his fences,and i really dont think hes good enough at them to do that. Imagine SE jumping alongside him for example,if it happened in the KG you would see what i mean. |
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I'd have thought Sizing Europe would be very unlikely to try and make all.
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well virtually every race ive seen him in over fences hes been right up there,perticularly after halfway,and if jumping anywhere near a front running LR he would find himself leading imo,which is the point im making.
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With decent ground Sizing Europe will be up there with the pace for sure and he jumps for fun.
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The fact that the rising 11-y-o Sizing Europe has tried 3m twice in a 33 race career suggests to me that the trainer has grave doubts about his stamina.
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