the john durkan chase .........punchestown !

entries out tomoz foyleswar

yeah,hope all the big names turn up

Really hope Quito De La Roque heads to Aintree instead as he can't beat these big shots over 20f - Gold Cup and 26f is a totally different matter and he'll wear the speedsters down!

NO.    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1     52-352    Blackstairmountain21      7    11-10    W P Mullins         —    139    152
2     F13-F1    Bog Warrior8      8    11-10    A J Martin         —    109    166
3     11P2-1    Cristal Bonus36      6    11-10    Paul Nicholls         —    135    161
4     23-423    First Lieutenant8      7    11-10    M F Morris         —    161    169
5     1111-1    Flemenstar28      7    11-10    Peter Casey         —    147    171
6     12-P46    Follow The Plan36      9    11-10    Oliver McKiernan         —    152    172
7     13-11    Hidden Cyclone15      7    11-10    John Joseph Hanlon         —    123    157
8     P-5220    Magnanimity8      8    11-10    D T Hughes         —    122    156
9     3F5U-5    Organisedconfusion28    7    11-10    A L T Moore         —    124    131
10     113-3    Quito De La Roque36      8    11-10    C A Murphy         —    50    165
11     52-044    Realt Dubh28      8    11-10    Noel Meade         —    127    173
12     12154-    Rubi Light225      7    11-10    Robert Alan Hennessy         —    162    173
13     11111-    Sir Des Champs229      6    11-10    W P Mullins         —    159    172
14     415-25    Tranquil Sea24      10    11-10    E J O´Grady         —    129    166
15     P-0311    Blazing Tempo77      8    11-3    W P Mullins         —    142    170

Yes half decent

This could well be the race of the season so far

entries are made today

52352 1   Blackstairmountain(148)
(WPMullins) - . ............. 11,10
-13f1 2   Bog Warrior(150) (AJMartin) - . .......... 11,10
11111 3   Flemenstar(168) (PCasey) - . ............. 11,10
p5220 4   Magnanimity(140) (DTHughes) - . ...... 11,10
113-3 5   Quito De La Roque (FR)(159)
(CAMurphy) - . ............. 11,10
52044 6   Realt Dubh(159) (NMeade) - . ............ 11,10
2-154 7   Rubi Light (FR)(161) (RAHennessy)
- . .................................. 11,10
1-111 8   Sir Des Champs (FR)(162)
(WPMullins) - . ............. 11,10
p0311 9   Blazing Tempo(153) (WPMullins) - . .. 11,03

Very surprised if Mullins decided to sidestep this with SDC!

Mullins just had Arvika win a Grade1 off a long lay-off. Though i'd rather back Flemenstar if forced.

Only 4 runners declared

SDC
Flemenstar
Bog Warrior
Rubi Light

JT - "If QDLR lines up at Cheltenham I'd be v surprised. If he can win, in what's shaping up to be extremely competitive I'd be absolutely stunned"

EVEN lines up...why?
I think he'd be well suited to the demands of the Gold Cup C&D and I think that's a short list of candidates.

I reckon QDLR missed the boat last March because this season's renewal will be much stronger with quite a few second-season novices coming through, but of them all, only Bob's Worth looks GUARANTEED to stay in my opinion.

Wisely, connections have swerved the Durkan giving him a straightforward task at Aintree tomorrow instead.

All opinions welcome mate...BUT, he WAS targeted at the Gold Cup last season before having some niggling injuries, so although it's a slight reservation of mine (may not concern his trainer) that he's got no track form, it's not crucial, or enough of a reason to dismiss him.

In my view there's not a better race for him all season, but as you say, he might be up against it concerning the bunch of very promising fencers around at the moment - some are very speedy and that compromises their chances in seeing out the Gold Cup trip.

Kauto Star, Best Mate & Kicking King had more pace than the average CGC winner (the rest over the last few decades were all very strong stayers) but the latter pair faced relatively dire opposition, and the former was a little bit special.

Flemenstar & Silviniaco Conti have no experience of fencing around the course but that's not deterring their supporters.

AND...maybe QDLR's not up to some of the others on ratings, but he's not light years behind as many Gold Cup horses (bang on the premises AND some winners) have been prior to the race over the last few decades.

There aren't many chases over 26f (over a season) that are run at a rattling pace to gauge whether a horse will appreciate the demands of the CGC - that's why there are so many apparent 'flukes' in the mix virtually every season...it's as if they've not been exposed with these conditions (which subsequently have been deemed optimal) and as QDLR looks like he could win a Welsh National to me, that augurs well.

He's a tad high in the weights to attempt that, and the Lexus is a far better option around that period - I've said a few times he's also unfairly tagged as a mudlark.

I've had plenty of the triple figure action with QDLR (there are some bold layers around) and I'd be interested in offloading if he gets as short as 30 on here if winning smoothly tomorrow, and I'll be bitterly disappointed if he can't handle the inferior opposition.

Hidden Cyclone, Tidal Bay & Hunt Ball have been shorter than 30 and I don't think they're exactly the 'bogey man' for a guaranteed stayer like QDLR.

Have you a 'rag' at a huge price you think is value?

GCW - if he's straight enough (and Colm Murphy said he was delighted with him after Down Royal) then I can't seem him being troubled at all!

As I said...if he's beaten fair & square, my AP bets will look foolish - I'll be very disappointed if he can't beat these easily!
It'll be interesting to see Wayward Prince up against him with a recent & direct form-line to Silviniaco Conti.

Yes NG I do and as said above I took a little of the 7s that was available earlier in the week. Clearly the front two are the ones to beat but as you say RL is proven in the grade, trip and ground

I don't see any 'rag' being on the premises this year. I wouldn't exactly term BW or SDC speedsters as I expect these 2 course proven animals to be staying on as well as anyone and probably from not too far from the pace. I do agree that RL is overpriced this weekend and also that he provides a fair benchmark for his opponents. More so than Big Zeb did.

JT - I agree with that about Big Zeb as he's on the decline nowadays and may well have to step up in trip.

Bob's Worth is definitely no speedster (a guaranteed stayer) but I think Sir Des Champs has got plenty of gears, and I'm far from sure he'll get the trip on Gold Cup day.

The chasers I meant (at the business end of the market) that have serious stamina concerns (over Gold Cup C&D) in my opinion are the likes of Silviniaco Conti, Grands Crus, Cue Card, Flemenstar, Al Ferof & Hidden Cyclone, besides Sir Des Champs.

That's a big chunk of the fancied horses and that opens the door for a rag or two, though I do appreciate that with so much strength in depth this season, SOME of the aforementioned WILL stay well enough!

JT - would you be as confident of SDC getting the trip on Gold Cup day as much as Bob's Worth?
If so, that's a brave shout!

I'm not confident he WON'T stay, but he still has that nagging question over him in my view.

Sorry Roo...I have 'form' for missing your posts! Grin

Remember the Abbaye thread?

Lets hope its a good omen then navel

Rubi Light is the bet for me at the prices. Was going to beat Sizing Europe comfortable in similar conditions before falling last year. Sets a really good bench mark here in thee conditions.

I have to admit I'm flummoxed by that relatively limp performance from QDLR earlier today, and I'm hoping an excuse will be proffered from connections that they've left something to work on with his fitness, and they're priming him for the Lexus.

I was quite happy throughout the race with how he travelled but he just didn't pick up that lot like he should've done.

I backed him again at 170 straight after the race and I haven't given up hope for the Gold Cup, though after today many of you will understandably scoff at that!

I'm not even a huge fan of the horse...in my view, he's got what it takes to run a massive race in the Gold Cup, and I'll stick my neck out with that assertion though I'm inviting three solid months of flak for that view