Welsh National

Hey you guys are probably right. If that's the case the all that remains is the overnights a couple of days before?

And btw harry I know my money is done on LBB - only chance is if race is completely cancelled.

I would still kick up roobuck and see how you get on...after all the race isn't on the said date pal...worth a go...like i say i'd say its 5 day decs but not really sure they are moving it 11 days so must be le-way...I might get my money back myself as the horse might brake a leg in the next week and I bet the horse for the 27th

I think the big issue is doing money on horses that were declared for the 27th and were gonna run but won't run on the 5th because they have run somewhere else in the interim.

looking at the forecast it must be questionable whether it will go ahead on the 5th - not sure what Plan C is.

anyone know what way betfair are treating their ante post on this race,

tia

Please be aware that the Welsh National from Chepstow is currently suspended and will be until further notice whilst we seek clarification from the BHA regarding the entries for this race....BETFAIR CUST.SERVICES

cheers bm

Must b a big chance of this bein off again?

I agree Liam with everything you say. The BHA has made another horlicks with regard to going back to the original handicap date so that horses that were originally withdrawn @ the 5day dec stage could now run. While the boss is away the idiots will play.

Mind numbingly poor decision by people who have no shame in demonstrating their complete lack of competence.

If people there were held accountable for their incompetence the place would have been sued and closed down many moons ago and we might have a body now that recognised the relationship between betting and horse racing. How are ante post punters gonna feel if they come 2nd to a horse that wasn't even if the final 26 5 day acceptors??

Ante post is dead if this is how the BHA will decide on rescheduled races.

this is disgusting in my book...

for those that have bet on the week with the 5 day decs have now bet on a race with double the decs...wtf are they playing at

this is one of the biggest jokes I have ever seen and makes ante post betting dead in the water

I think the precedent was set in another race hence why I suggested this was the likely outcome. Not saying its right however

Back to racinggurus point,master overseer was taken out after a bad run at haydock now after winning at cheltenham hes actually 5LBS well in!

The bookies now have Master Overseer running for them plus numerous others potentially plus the weights could be so different and therefore riding arrangements.

Sona Sasta for example was very likely to have been Scu's mount and off 10st 3lbs when the weights went up 16. Now could be any old jock plus could be out the weights. The whole dynamics have changed. The problem is BHA are brain dead - period and bookies don't differentiate between regular ante-post and ante-post early closer races.

anyone got the decs - they were supposed to be confirmed by noon today?

23 declared  - Across the Bay heads weights - another one that was out!

Across The Bay28     11_12
Quartz De Thaix22     11_06
Giles Cross266     11_03
Michel Le Bon56     11_03
Teaforthree35     11_03
Soll35     10_12
Alfie Spinner35 10_11
Universal Soldier 10_11
Master Overseer 10_10
Katenko14     10_09
Royal Charm28     10_08
Viking Blond49     10_07
Major Malarkey  10_06
Jadanli34     10_05
Mon Mome21     10_05
Triggerman50     10_03
Harouet27     10_01
Monbeg Dude49     10_01
Sona Sasta28 4     10_00
Our Island29     10_00
Cool Operator20 10_00
Incentivise19     10_00
Arbor Supreme29 10_00

Viking Blond for me. Prominent runner, nice weight, good prep race LTO out at Cheltenham. A year on about disappointing as favourite, at 8s will run a great race.

Your allegiance to NTD, a pleasure to see corporal

Soll getting me jiggy now, after Harpsy Cord's cruel twist of fate @Limerick tother day. 139 a very feasible mark with the promise of more to come after only 5 starts(4 chases) under rules and 2 points.

At this moment - Sona Sasta for me.

Pure coincidence this time Liam but great memory!! Allegiance to trainers doesn't go much further than messrs Newland and Mckiernan given  their impressive strike rates.

As it turns out I'm ok with the final 23 and be happy if Across the Bay stays in but ultimately it isn't right to have a 2 runners potentially running that weren't in the field. Could work out for the best for me as Sona Sasta now 10 stone whereas I was thinking 10st 6. Happier to be level weights with Our Island than giving him 2.

at the prices i will have to be with monbeg dude he won well at cheltenham i like viking but just question him seeing it out monbeg seemed to have more in the tank last time as after watching the race again i think he was just idling once he got the better of bradley

Giles Cross did a brilliant piece of work this morning and I’m hopeful he will run well in the Welsh National on Saturday, while I think Seebright could be the horse to change our fortunes in the bumper.
Quote from VD today.

Does the performance of Ambion Wood today put anyone off Giles Cross this weekend. Nagging doubt the virus outbreak at the yard may be negatively impacting.

tt - great minds. Must have been typing at same time.

hayling have posted a piece on AW on the chelts forum,thread about RSA winner runs today etc etc.

Done my homework. Decision made. Selected Universal Soldier and Monbeg Dude. Both right age and both like Soft/Heavy. US a previous winner at Chepstow and MD a first time runner at Chepstow. Have gone for one at low end of weights and one at the top end once you remove the top 5 in the weights none of which I think are good enough or reliable enough to carry the weight. Going to wait til Saturday to place EW bets on both coz most will go first 5 places on saturday morning. Good luck all.

hayling when doing your homework just explain why you came up with these 2 horse??

by homework do you mean trends or form??

best of luck of course but some reasoning would be nice

I can see it cutting up to 15-17 runners so 5 places maybe pushing it

harry - apologies, it was late. A little more detail on my thinking. Trends was a key factor. Universal Soldier came out strong on the trends I used and I know Charlie L likes this horse a lot especially in soft going. Picked Monbeg Dude coz he met a lot of the trends and I saw him win at Cheltenham in soft going recently and immediately thought Welsh National. Add to the equation the top 2 in weights are carrying too much, not going near anything from Vic Dartnells stable after virus and watching Ambion Wood run this week, MIchel Le Bon is a constant disappointment and I just dont fancy T43 for a tough slog round Chepstow. Sona Sasta was the other one I liked at lower weights but opted for Monbeg due to what I saw with own eyes at Cheltenham and to be honest wanted to stick to courage of my own conviction. Hope that reads better. Good luck to you.

You make a good point ref 5 places and number of runners. I am hoping the bookies are desperate !

At The Races ‏@AtTheRaces
Nick Williams tells ATR that Alfie Spinner will not run in Welsh National - heads to Sandown instead

ffs

hayling still no reasoning from a form perspective...apart from trends so fair play won't pursue

michel le bon why is he a constant disappointment please???

he is the horse I am all over like a tramp round a sandwich

ideal prep, form lines with leading runners, loves the track, will love the ground...improvement likely on only 5th chase start...ruby on board...will be 5-1 on the day and we are getting 8's our money today??

explain reasoning for saying he is a constant disappointment please

if you were expecting him to win the hennessy last year on his second career chase start save it ran a blinder for me

Sorry harry but loves the track - he's won a maiden hurdle there?

No obvious form lines with other fancied runners as I can see. I would have thought a little tenuous and not ones that justify the price imo.

Clearly open to improve my as had  so few chase starts but he is now 10 - are you not concerned he may not have the resolution for such a test?

Not for me but good luck - watch him hose up!

Backed both michel and Alfie contempt for punters on the last named by the trainer

Really fancied Royal Charm, looks like he's joining Alfie

zil,are you ND on twitter ?

yep

27Dec11 Chepstow ( 24 Hy ,RPR134 )
Aflie Spinner is hopefully a horse who will come back for the Welsh National next year. The longer the trip and the wetter the ground the better he is. - Nick Williams, trainer

Another trainer spouting crap

harry - in all honesty my distrust of Michel Le Bon is based on what was a very high expectation when he first returned. PN bigged him up and I fell for it and went in deep and I just dont think he has lived up to expectation. Albeit may have been a false expectation I set and thus I am letting emotion get in the way of logic. Net net if he wins I will have learned another hard lesson in the school of hard knocks. Good luck with your bet. You are happy with MLB and I am happy with my two. Game on.

For the record harry I have also backed Universal Soldier. His prep run imo reads very well as he was a good second to a horse that already had a prep and ran an immense race next time out.

Like MLB very few chase runs but younger and potentially open to more improvement. Clearly he has ground to make up with the favourite and his appearance on the course does not inspire. A bit of a price thing tbh.

zil,just came across you on twitter,was doing a search for Nick Williams

Too True Turnip, wont be backing another charge of the mans Ante Post again, lesson learned

LOL TT, wasnt that pleased, could have given some indication earlier this week, only backed him yesterday as well, not good timing eh !!

No,backed him a while ago here,really can't believe he's pulled him out tbh,the race is made for him

Alfie ffs

horrible year for ante post punting and feel for alfie punters as it was stated this was the aim so to pull him out is disappointing for supporters...a sick game at times

hayling fair enough and I can see why yourself and others have lost the faith...I on the other hand hadn't backed him at all till the hennessy and done me nuts on him being a non runner but the package backed the form up from a much higher mark, the pair pulling clear...and this is not the hennessy the class of field is mediocre in comparison...he was pulled from the hennessy because of tidal bay imo and he wouldn't of won on a line through the package but it shouldn't take away from an excellent comeback (pair pulled a distance clear) and he is still well weighted for me and think he has been crying out for staying distances as is basically a same

for what it is worth universal soldier isn't a bad shout but off of 138 he has it all to do after winning a minor race a towcester...not sure of his temperament either after looking like wanting to run out with a circuit to go at haydock...he has enough weight. I hope monbeg dude doesn't bite me in the bum but am not keen on the race he won until proved otherwise...but respect him down the weights just not sure he will have the class

viking blond isn't overly big but is well weighted he was my pick for this 2 months ago but appears was everyone elses judging by his horrible price...he isn't for me now however although wouldn't surprise me if he ran well

a same pace horse sos

Any acceptors published, please?

24 hr decs bazzar

Thought it was 48 hour decs this afternoon, turnip.

24 hrs coz rearranged race. I think.

the sandown race that a few of these have been entered for is 48 hrs,but not this one.

I like Soll for this race - was well supported on comeback in the hennessy when quietly fancied by his new trainer...can see him building on that respectable race...wet ground should hold no terrors and he should stay...off a nice weight and was well fancied for the cheltenham four miler last season. My nb was alfie spinner so need to recoup that stake too! Universal soldier and tea for three next best imo...

is Across the Bay running or at Sandown?

Is down as a runner so very pleased myself...sandown second preference for him

They seem to have left Alfie Spinner in..........

They seem to have left Alfie Spinner in..........

2nd preference race Rydal


1     Across The Bay (IRE) (Sheepskin C/P) (1st Preference)    Donald McCain    11st 12lb    Jason Maguire
2     Giles Cross (IRE)    Victor Dartnall    11st 3lb    Denis O'Regan
3     Teaforthree (IRE)    Rebecca Curtis    11st 3lb    A. P. McCoy
4     Michel Le Bon (FR)    Paul Nicholls    11st 3lb    R. Walsh
5     Soll    Jo Hughes    10st 12lb    Mark Grant
6     Universal Soldier (IRE) (Blinkers)    Charlie Longsdon    10st 11lb    Wayne Hutchinson
7     Alfie Spinner (IRE) (2nd Preference)    Nick Williams    10st 11lb    Noel Fehily
8     Master Overseer (IRE) (Tongue Strap, Sheepskin C/P)    David Pipe    10st 10lb (4lb ex)    Tom Scudamore
9     Viking Blond (FR) (Blinkers)    Nigel Twiston-Davies    10st 7lb    Sam Twiston-Davies
10     Jadanli (IRE)    Paul John Gilligan, Ireland    10st 5lb    Alain Cawley
11     Mon Mome (FR)    Venetia Williams    10st 5lb    Liam Treadwell
12     Triggerman (Sheepskin C/P)    Philip Hobbs    10st 3lb    Richard Johnson
13     Monbeg Dude (IRE)    Michael Scudamore    10st 1lb    Paul Carberry
14     Harouet (FR) (Sheepskin C/P)    Peter Bowen    10st 1lb    D. J. Casey
15     Sona Sasta (IRE)    David Pipe    10st 0lb (4lb ex)    Mr M. Ennis (7)
16     Our Island (IRE) (Visor)    Tim Vaughan    10st 0lb    Dougie Costello
17     Incentivise (IRE)    Richard Lee    10st 0lb    Killian Moore (7)
18     Arbor Supreme (IRE)    Jonjo O'Neill    10st 0lb (4lb ex)    Maurice Linehan (5)

.........ah, well

Think tomorrow the ground could be like a glue pot after a few dryish days - could be even harder work. To that end Master Overseer who will simply carry on is a good option.

Cheers NW, did an antepost lucky 15 before xmas with PP, Sizing Europe with a run 6/1 in KG, Colbert station 12/1, Darlan 5/1 and Alfie Spinner 14/1, was looking forward to the sweat tomo, will probably win at Sandown and I'll be completely sickened, without Alfie will back Soll

Giles Cross 12/1 & Our Island 28/1 look the standout bets to me


Giles Cross has been second in this twice and his mark looks workable , he has great form in these marathon staying races and looks a knocking bet e/w as long as the Dartnall yard is ok now

Dartnall is a brilliant trainer of this type of horse and no doubt this one would not be going if there is any worries

Our Island looks potentially well in here imo and definitely has lots of ability and will stay all day

He looks a real live one at the bottom of the weights here and could run a massive race

GL all

Picked out 4 against the field and those are 2 of them edward.
Other 2 fwiw are Across the bay and at a big price Incentivise.

Heres hoping!!

I'm taking a gamble on Arbor Supreme, looks like this was a long term plot and is clearly a much better horse than his mark suggests, If he could run anything like to his best.. which is a BIG if, he would have a massive chance. He's a very frustrating horse having backed him for Nationals gone by. I find it very interesting that he's been moved to Jonjo's yard, he can really ready one for these sort of races. With absolute no weight on testing ground I think this could be perfectly set up for this horse. His latest spin suggests he's in good health and can really see him going close if anywhere near his best, 33/1 is a massive price.

GL all

Cannot have it being a long term plot - he's 11 lb wrong. Surely they won't have expected to get in?

hes 11lb wrong but if he performs to a mark he's achieved earlier on in his career, he deffo won't be wrong at the weights, that's my gamble anyway. Since his last run in November Jonjo will have got him as fit as possible and if able to work some magic and get the horse back to his form of a couple of years ago I think he could run well above his quoted price. Find it strange JP has nothing else in the race tbh.

yeah I accept that, just cannot see it as being a plot.

That being said if there's money.....look at Colbert Station last week!

I get the feeling they were expecting a little bit more in November to raise his mark, who knows. I have the impression with the success of training the likes of Synchronised, JP moved Arbor over here to be trained for the Welsh, Scottish and Midlands National in mind. He has one handicap left in him and expect him to go at least close in one handicap this year. Perhaps the plot might not unfold in the welsh. But think he's worth a poke at the respective price.

You may be right G/L

think another one down the bottom maybe worth a second look, incentivise.

On Teaforthree at 8s AP but think Soll will run a big race at 12s - fav too short now at 3s

The horse I really like is Soll. Has proven heavy ground form. While he's never completed a race like this he has shown glimpses of very smart form and was well matched with teaforthree in the Hennessey and look at their prices. Soll would be a single digit price for sure was he trained by one of the major trainers.

Giles Cross off this mark on his Haydock beating of Neptune Collonges I would be allover him at this price in this ground. However with all the problems at his yard it's sad that he can't be touched because we probably wont ever get such a good price for him in a race like this again with these conditions until he's an old codger! Will certainly be very annoyed if GC does hack up now!

Teaforthree as others have said has a chance, but not a 3/1 chance. Too short, maybe that short on gd/sft ground but not this...

Master Overseer, Sona Sasta and Monbeg Dude could all be in the frame if it turns in to a right slog. Master Overseer was well held in this last year though and the other 2 will have to take a massive step up in form.

The only horse I have touched in this race is Soll so lets hope for a good run for my money!

I looked at Soll but I feel he's been badly handicapped against Teaforthree. Even though T43 has finished ahead of Soll twice and won the very competitive 4 miler at Cheltenham the handicapper has dropped him 2lb compared to Soll since March. I asked the handicapper to explain his logic but he decdidn't answer. T43 has proven form over the distance, course form and a trainer and jockey with experience of winning good quality chases. I  can understand why he's much more strongly fancied.

What happened to Cool Operator anyone?

I thought that Alfie Spinner was supposed to be a non-runner but hasn't been taken out yet in the market.

TEN2FOLLOWER
05 Jan 13 09:15
Joined:
12 Sep 05
| Topic/replies: 3,805 | Blogger: TEN2FOLLOWER's blog
What happened to Cool Operator anyone?





not sure disappointing thought he would run well at a price myself

Cool Operator went lame yesterday morning

Had a little bit of the 5s with Hills this morn about Teaforthree.
Looks the perfect type for the race (if there is such a thing)
All going well, he will take all the beating 2day.
Gd luck all.

good call hayling well done pal

GoldCupWinner
17 Dec 12 15:59
Joined:
16 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 1,074 | Blogger: GoldCupWinner's blog
The favourite does look very solid to me on last years form.

Joined:
16 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 1,074 | Blogger: GoldCupWinner's blog
What do you think of Sona sasta's prospects of staying? Has good course form and a nice pull at the weights with LBB. Has to be a doubt about stauing this distance properly though. Is Monbeg dude going for this? 25/1 looks decent as fom his latest win it looks as though a step up in trip might bing further improvement.


My first two posts on the thread and I didn't even have a bet on the race. I think I need a bit more confidence when picking my selections.

Thanks harry. Much appreciated. What a ride from Carberry.

Yeah well done. I spotted him from a while back just creeping past them one by one. Couldn't believe when he asked him post race that he would never have had him as likely winner half way around. The horse always been a dodgy jumper but won races.

Well done HaylingBilly   

Agreed well done Hayling and any other MD backers

Hopefully you did AS e/w brooksie, also a good call

Nah only to win I'm afraid, It's very rare I play for places. I thought Arbor was going to win down the back he was tanked pinged his fences, he just got a bit tired when the leaders kicked on. Was a good race and got a run for my money though, will probably back him for the rest of season think I will get my money back and then some at some stage this season.

tanking*

Never mind giving Haylingbilly all the praise boy wonder 07 mentioned monbeg dude earlier in this thread, so well done boy wonder 07 great selection that and I even had a small touch myself thanks.

thanks holloway gave me greater confidence when carberry was booked not many would have won on him a top class ride always nice to bag a 14/1 winner difficult horse to assess as he gives the impression he's done enough when getting to the front i think handicapper will put him up 10lb taking him to 138 his jumping leaves a lot of improvement to gaurantee getting round aintree and i think 2014 would be a better aim but he definitely has an engine and the scottish may be the race for him this term

Pete scu gave evey 1 this horse at the new years day mussleburgh meeting to bet for the race.The owners where on radio bbc5live before christmas hopeing he would get into the race.Good plot that.Wont be as easy now.

From the Irish Pt to pt scene......

Michael Scudamore is hoping to keep up a family tradition with Monbeg Dude (a Nenagh point-to-point winner in 2010 for Colin Bowe) in the rearranged Coral Welsh National at Chepstow on Saturday.

Scudamore's father, former champion jockey Peter, won the race four times on Run And Skip (1985), Bonanza Boy (1988 and 1989) and Carvill's Hill (1991).

Monbeg Dude was last seen winning a valuable handicap at Cheltenham in November, with ante-post favourite Teaforthree back in eighth.

However, he may require a new partner as Jamie Moore did the steering that day but may be forced to give up the mount due to his commitments to Peter Bowen.

"He's really well. He won nicely enough at Cheltenham and we're very pleased and looking forward to Saturday," said Scudamore on At The Races.
"It was a good performance last time on softish, heavy ground and you'd have to think the way he travelled through the race that an extra two furlongs around Chepstow shouldn't be a problem to him.

"It's hard to say you're confident going into a race like this but we couldn't be happier with him.
"Hopefully he's a younger horse going the right way and hopefully that will help him come Saturday.

"We're waiting to see what Jamie's plans are, with lots of racing about we'll have to see. Jamie gets on well with him and it would be good to keep that partnership intact if possible.

"It was a race that dad was very lucky in, he won it a few times when he was riding. It would be a great race for a young yard like ours to win."

He is owned by the Oydunow syndicate made up of some international rugby union players, however not all will be able to attend.
"I think Gloucester are playing on Saturday which ties up Mr (Mike) Tindall, Mr (James) Simpson-Daniel is injured at the moment so I think he's hoping to get down there and Nicky Robinson is the physio with Wasps so I don't think he'll be there, but they'll all be there in spirit," said Scudamore.

I think that MON DUDE will go up 6lbs, but the real puzzle is how much will TEAFORTHREE go up, I guess about 3lbs and if he does then that would put him on 147?

Well I was totally wrong with my guess, MON DUDE went up
10lb, as forecast by a poster on here, TEAFORTHREE went up 8lb
but the start should have been his mark of 144 but he is assessed off 143 and raised to 151, yet MON D was assessed at his mark of 128 raised 10lb to 138, so I wonder why the 1 lb
discrepancy with tfor3?
On the same day at Sandown KATENKO raced off a mark of 136 and was raised 11 lb to 147, this puzzles me as regards TFOR3.

Because he was dropped a 1lb after the Hennessy and WN early closing handicap

He still raced off 144 though, another stupid  way of thinking on
the authorities part!!!!!!

After his unplaced run in HENNESSEY, he was dropped from 146 to 144 and
he ran off that mark in WELSH NATIONAL, I think it is a mistake and will be rectified when weights are published for GRAND NATIONAL, where he will be allotted 152.

Arbor Supreme dropped 7lb for his run in 4th, he has to win next time out surely?

Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
Le Beau Bai, winner of the Welsh National in 2011, was put down this morning after a setback in his recovery from a fractured pelvis.

That is gutting news, terrible for connections. Just an honest, genuine horse with its limitations, but you knew given his conditions you'd have a good run for your money

agreed,very sad news