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harry callaghan
20 Nov 12 22:24
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Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 11,054 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
Well tricky stuff but a handicap all the same...we like...

Well my favourite horse in training is favourite here... no gamer animal in training for me bobs worth....but with likely soft ground he is tight at 4-1

the package is next best but with the likely soft ground he is high enough in the weights and off an 8lbs higher mark and with his in an out style he is passed over at 7-1

hold on julio is next best and has been trained for this but makes no appeal at the 10-1 on offer...his running against alfie sherrin was poor and the baltazar king form should be treated with caution in my opinion...

friscot depots race at ascot when he was travelling well when departing was a muddling race with no pace on early and they were sprinting when departing 3 out when yes he was travelling with ease but had also pulled most of the race so what he had left is open to question and make zero appeal at 14's

tidal bay looks likely to run at haydock the weekend

saint are has been trained for this and is respected from his good trainer...my main problem with this fellow is he was hit 8lbs for winning at aintree on better ground he will get here and appears better in the spring (never won off the lay off) the second horse at aintree is a course specialist but is a complete mut if ever there was one and the others aren't much on paper...I think it was a poor race at aintree and the 8lbs he got will be to much for this slightly exposed chaser...he is respected all the same

with the likely soft ground burton port is respected even off of a big weight but as much as he is 9lbs higher than when 2nd to diamond harry he hasn't had his favoured  soft ground for 7 runs and can't help but feel he will go well with ideal conditions likely...

the one i am most keen on and have bet is michel le bon and i believe is a real tad of value here and have bet accordingly at the 12's...some may argue he hasn't a lot of form in the book and would agree to an extent but don't believe he has had anything go his way...I was seriously against him last year at 10-1 in this race and he ran to form...it was just a tad to much for him on only his second career start over fences caught 8 wide the whole journey he ran a race better than i thought he would but a crippling mistake 6 out done for him...he hung in there but was beaten animal 3 out...some will argue he hasn't gone on but a below par effort on unfavoured fast going at kempton a flat fast track wouldn't of suited him, before a nice run on soft over hurdles to put him back on track at cheltenham was a nice end of year...he returned at wincanton and ran respectively behind the pipe trained the package who got first run on good/soft, jumping slightly left at his fences...this for me was the first bit of form he has put in the book and was most credible considering the winner got first run and it was still his 4th career start over fences...walsh wasn't hard on him and just gave him a couple of love taps just to keep him interested...he hasn't had his favoured soft ground for 4 years and although he isn't the quickest he will love the soft ground expected and now warrants serious respect off of 144 on a track he likes...tidal bay looks likely to contest the betfair chase could be wrong and harry the viking has little ability...so he could be nicholls ony serious runner...I think he will improve considerably for real soft ground and considering he and the package pulled 41 lengths clear in a competitive handicap i expect him to improve considerably for the run...

the way i am playing

1 1/2 points ew michel le bon @ 12's

1/2  point ew burton port 20's (waiting to see if a runner first)

1/4 win saint are @ 16's
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Report judorick November 28, 2012 12:27 PM GMT
there are a lot more negatives than that about DIAMOND HARRY and very good reasons why he has dropped so far in the weights - he is generally accepted to have gone sour and to have some kind of physical or psychological issue which prevents him from even trying
Report bazzar November 28, 2012 12:38 PM GMT
I don't know your level of betting, most on here talk points and such,
but a half or quarter of a point , just in case, would clear the air after the result
and not much loss, if a loser.
Report bazzar November 28, 2012 12:44 PM GMT
JUDO, you are surmising that the horse has soured, which in FACT
is nothing more than OPINION, I have to the best of my ability, tried
to show the facts except for the last line of my 12:20 post.
Report judorick November 28, 2012 12:46 PM GMT
his recent form is not the only negative which is what you said
Report buddeliea November 28, 2012 12:51 PM GMT
bazaar,
yes its opinion, and its also mine,but it is based on a fair few bad runs now.
How far do you have to go back to find a decent run?

Yes you can take a chance if you think the price is worth that,but saying his recent form is the only negative is not really telling the whole story.
Report shockster November 28, 2012 12:53 PM GMT
If you're thinking of backing Diamond Harry, then good luck, but don't back him Each Way.  If by some miracle he has come right he'll win and if not he'll be pulled up again.  Can't see him running into a place.  Will be all or nothing IMO.
Report buddeliea November 28, 2012 1:05 PM GMT
yep,quiet agree.

Its just possible as CV says that he could go off from the front and show interest,and IF he does he could well win as hes chucked in on his best form.
As Shock says,whatever happens hes a win or nothing bet for me.
Well nothing actually,unless i think on the day hes worth chucking a couple of quid on..........gonna wait till the last minute if i do though!!
Report turnip turns November 28, 2012 1:42 PM GMT
PA Stables ‏@PA_Stables
Nicky Henderson tells Press Association Sport both Roberto Goldback and Bobs Worth are set to run in the Hennessy at Newbury on Saturday.
Report FOYLESWAR November 28, 2012 1:44 PM GMT
tidal bay very weak .....alarm bells !
Report Clerkmore November 28, 2012 3:08 PM GMT
Worst Hennessy I can remember and I go back to the early sixties.
Report Millerracing67 November 28, 2012 3:49 PM GMT
With the ground looking like it will be soft/heavy, Alfie Spinner would be of a small ew interest at around the 16s mark.
Some very solid nov chase form & goes really well on heavy ground.
Would have been very stronge on Bobs Worth but for this heavy ground stuff, all his top form in on good/g/s ground.
With a dry rest of the week forcast, prob best to wait & see come Sat.
Report judorick November 28, 2012 4:14 PM GMT
Starting to come round to Teaforthree despite his poor performance at Cheltenham under the 10lb claimer. Certainly been backed and will love the going. Hmm, will wait to see the true state of the going before getting involved but I keep going through the race and dismissing almost all the runners for one reason or another and keep coming back to this one.

Any idea who will be riding?
Report shockster November 28, 2012 4:33 PM GMT
Newbury going changed to soft. With dry weather forecast for next couple of days, the Hennessy could yet to be run on good to soft ground
Report stevo1 November 28, 2012 4:45 PM GMT
Judo maybe MCcoy as looks like Darlan not going Newcastle,j ust guessing though.
Report judorick November 28, 2012 4:56 PM GMT
hmm thanks stevo mate

if it's good to soft I won't be playing, that will open the race up
Report zilzal1 November 28, 2012 5:21 PM GMT
After two and a half days of racing its going to be opened up and tacky imo, i'll stick with my original a/p bet, cant see any sense in trying to guess too much on the likely ground there
Report CVByrne November 28, 2012 6:37 PM GMT
Fresh ground kept for Saturday zilzal so forget the 2 days of racing, it'll be half a day on Sat. Ground will not have had rain since Tuesday afternoon. Could well be decent good to soft. But likely soft with a little g2s in places.
Report zilzal1 November 28, 2012 6:59 PM GMT
Frosts f/c every night though
Report judorick November 28, 2012 6:59 PM GMT
will be checking times in the earlier races on saturday
Report CVByrne November 28, 2012 11:10 PM GMT
First Lieutenant confirmed runner. Cool Topped up my 28.0 with some 18.0.
Report buddeliea November 29, 2012 7:40 AM GMT
yep Zil,still be plenty soft enough,been raining for 4 months!!
Report CVByrne November 29, 2012 8:16 AM GMT
Has been dry for last 4 months in London Bud. Not much rain at all. I walk to work and have rarely used umbrella. Different story in Ireland and up north though.
Report C.F.KANE November 29, 2012 9:15 AM GMT
Magnamity looking like N/R ?

Any news ????
Report BJG November 29, 2012 10:32 AM GMT
Only Planet Of Sound, Tatenen and Junior pulled out as 19 declared for the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday.
Report Facts November 29, 2012 12:19 PM GMT
harchibald     27 Nov 12 21:50 
Nice stats.

Tidal Bay is a nutter, First Lieu won't show up, Frisco has an amateur pilot living on fumes aboard and that leaves The Duke.

Very happy with my two here (self justification done in public anyway)thanks for these



was- imo
Report buddeliea November 29, 2012 12:24 PM GMT
Dry for last 4 months in London??well maybe the City aint had much,but Newbury is not London.
im in the south and i can assure you its been far from dry mate.
Thats why Cheltenham was soft,Ascot was heavy,and Newbury is currently soft all round.
Floods all down the south west.
Report buddeliea November 29, 2012 12:24 PM GMT
was - imo, as well.
Report bazzar November 29, 2012 12:39 PM GMT
My grandson E-MAILED to ask if we were being flooded in MANCHESTER,
he lives in READING, I took the mickey by replying that he should
know that we don't get rain in MANCHESTER, most southerners BELIEVE
that it ALWAYS rains in MANCHESTER.
Some people will believe anything, even that their is a GOD.
Report unclepuncle November 29, 2012 1:05 PM GMT
Happy enough with my original bet on Duke Of Lucca but at the prices can't resist a bet on First Lieutenant at 14/1 as well.

Good luck all.Happy
Report zantana November 29, 2012 3:21 PM GMT
THE PACKAGE- Rather weak in the market. 14/1 - any reason? Thought he should
be shorter and for me its a def E/W bet
Report zantana November 29, 2012 3:21 PM GMT
THE PACKAGE- Rather weak in the market. 14/1 - any reason? Thought he should
be shorter and for me its a def E/W bet
Report SOULDANCER November 29, 2012 4:11 PM GMT
Think Pipe said soft ground would be against him.
Report stevo1 November 29, 2012 4:47 PM GMT
Mccoy on Teaforthree Judo.
Report pedrobob November 29, 2012 4:50 PM GMT
Racing Post today: Sean Quinn ‏(@SeanQuinnracing) revealed that Denis O'Regan takes the Fighting Fifth ride. He tweeted: "@DenisFORegan will ride Countrywide Flame on Sat as @DougieCostello is at Newbury. He must fancy his chances in the Hennessy!"

Costello riding Saint Are
Report buddeliea November 29, 2012 5:55 PM GMT
umm,seems to be drying up a bit too fast for my liking.Still soft but g/s is now appearing and by Saturday i think it might not be soft enough for Tidal Bay to win the race,unless some more rain appears.
Think he will still run well,but so will others and thats what worries me.
Not given up but does Look like im going to have to have another look Saturday Morning.
Report zantana November 29, 2012 6:16 PM GMT
No more rain in BBC forecast, so seems going will change
more to Good/Soft.
Report stringerbell November 29, 2012 7:21 PM GMT
does anyone have news on first lieutenant, market seems to think it will run..
Report turnip turns November 29, 2012 7:38 PM GMT
he is running,the final decs are out Wink
Report FOYLESWAR November 29, 2012 7:44 PM GMT
how do you find the hennesey market on here ? not in the ap section !
Report turnip turns November 29, 2012 7:45 PM GMT
go to the day markets now,its upWink
Report BJG November 29, 2012 7:45 PM GMT
Day of race now, just click horse racin, GB and newb
Report shockster November 29, 2012 7:46 PM GMT
Foyles - In horse racing Newbury Dec 1st.
Report FOYLESWAR November 29, 2012 7:47 PM GMT
thanks lads !
Report FOYLESWAR November 29, 2012 7:55 PM GMT
goings changing have traded out of magnaninmity for a small red and am looking at the good-good to soft horses for the hennesey ,the second season chasers are proving to be a decent crop bobs worth and first leiut are now very much in the mix imo .
Report FOYLESWAR November 29, 2012 7:55 PM GMT
goings changing have traded out of magnaninmity for a small red and am looking at the good-good to soft horses for the hennesey ,the second season chasers are proving to be a decent crop bobs worth and first leiut are now very much in the mix imo .
Report JOCI Club November 29, 2012 8:56 PM GMT
Bobs Worth 94%
Hold On Julio 69%
Tidal Bay 63%

First Lieutenant 59%
Frisco Depot 55%
Duke Of Lucca 49%
Saint Are 49%
Teaforthree 46%
Harry The Viking 45%
Magnanimity 42%
The Package 41%
Lion Na Bearnai 39%
Roberto Goldback 39%
Diamond Harry 38%
Soll 37%
Carruthers 35%
Alfie Spinner 31%
Ikorodu Road 23%
Fruity O´Rooney 9%

Final 19 decs.
Report roobuck November 29, 2012 9:35 PM GMT
Stop reminding me JOCI Sad

Everything seems to be coming right for BW
Report turnip turns November 29, 2012 9:54 PM GMT
Done with this race now,Bobs to win @5.5 and FL @15.5,place @4.3 ante post,good luck allCool
Report CVByrne November 29, 2012 10:23 PM GMT
gl teets

Really fancy FL now the ground is drying. Think prep run and end to end gallop will suit. He and weeBobs are the only proper class in this. Think people forget how far the pair were clear in the RSA.

gl all. Drying ground puts my 44.0 Duke of Lucca in play. Plus Saint Are, my first AP bet is now proper in play. HappyHappy

But if Harry wins. Wow I'd be happy. Grin
Report Millerracing67 November 30, 2012 4:41 PM GMT
Ground drying out is a big plus for Bobs Worth, g/s should be fine.
Report roobuck November 30, 2012 4:45 PM GMT
Agreed, ground looked decent enough today.

If he has progressed in the same way as most of last year's top novices, can only see Dirty as well enough handicapped to beat him
Report kingrat November 30, 2012 5:53 PM GMT
my bets are

1.lay harry for a place

2. win bet on frisco depot....if it stays up,its gotta go very close imo.

3.win and pl on lion na bearnai.....some fancy prices on bf....this horse will stay all day and is a very good jumper
Report buddeliea November 30, 2012 5:55 PM GMT
yeh,i like the Lion horse,and like you say still a big price for a horse that stays well,jumps well and will like the ground.
Report FOYLESWAR November 30, 2012 8:30 PM GMT
have gone back in on magnanimity ( after trading out for a small red yesterday) at 23 on here price just too big  now and has a feather weight  and has some fair form in ireland in bad ground ,just thinking better ground may suit !thats me lot... first lieutenant,magnanimity and smaller beton  tidal bay .
Report Brooksielad November 30, 2012 9:22 PM GMT
first two home Bobs worth and First Lieutenant, Hard to say what will finish 3rd get the feeling something off a light weight will be holding off a typical late surge from Tidal Bay.
Report marychain1 November 30, 2012 10:25 PM GMT
I like Bob's Worth, but he's the same price Denman was when he won his first Hennessey and he's no Denman.

There's 3 I think that could run well at the weights in these conditions, they are all a decent price too, so I'm going to have three small each way bets.
Teaforthree 16/1, Magnaminity 16/1 and Curruthers 28/1.
Report VillaBoy November 30, 2012 10:37 PM GMT
Marychain...pretty much my thinking. Bobs is no Denman

except I'm Carruthers, Duke Of Lucca and T43
Report Colldogg November 30, 2012 10:42 PM GMT
I am on Harry the Viking, can forgive his last 2 runs, think hes on a very light weight and ground drying for him is a plus. 3miles around Newbury with a lot of pace should suit him down to the ground if his jumping holds up. They will be coming back to him at the finish.

Also on Carruthers. Always showed his best form around Newbury. At the prices he's worth a punt, He had a stinker before his Hennessy win last year so I wouldn't worry about his previous run. Prefers Newbury to Cheltenham too so should get a place at least.

The Package is my final selection. He was very impressive in the badger ales at Wincanton. However I'm worried about Timmy Murphy being in hospital. If Murphy doesn't ride, who else will ride the horse? Tom Scu is up in Newcastle...
Report Steamship November 30, 2012 10:45 PM GMT
Fehily is not jocked up yet
Report Brooksielad November 30, 2012 10:55 PM GMT
bar the first two home in the RSA and Tidal Bay I think the rest of the field is very poor. I wouldn't mind betting that they'll only be 5 finishers or less  tomorrow.
Report kingrat November 30, 2012 10:58 PM GMT
i cant help thinking if fl or magnaminity were really fancied,davy russell would be over to ride.
Report One Nation November 30, 2012 11:12 PM GMT
Ground certainly not as bad as I was expecting. Looks like genuine good to soft.
Report GoldCupWinner November 30, 2012 11:37 PM GMT
Carruthers did not run a stinker before his win last year he was placed. He has shown no form since then and one to avoid unless it's a coup they've planned since last year.
Report Colldogg November 30, 2012 11:52 PM GMT
Just looked at the cards. As you said steamship Fehily isn't jocked up yet and neither is Aidan Coleman. Both are good replacements if called upon. Hope that Timmy will be fine to ride though.
Report Trusty December 1, 2012 8:17 AM GMT
rat _ russell can't do 10-3!
Report Millerracing67 December 1, 2012 12:51 PM GMT
Tooks a bit of the 11/2 with Hills this morn on Bobs Worth.
On the g/s ground (not 2 sticky i hope) he will take some beating, all going well.
Fingers X. Cool
Report abbott December 1, 2012 3:03 PM GMT
Has Saint Are lost a leg 36s on here I can't stop backing him.
Report harry callaghan December 1, 2012 3:19 PM GMT
what a great horse that bobs worthLove
Report Steamship December 1, 2012 3:20 PM GMT
What a great race, those novices from last year are really something else and what about Tidal Bay.
Report Tucho December 1, 2012 3:25 PM GMT
that jump from first lieutenant at the third last LaughCoolShocked
Report Facts December 1, 2012 3:39 PM GMT
Tidal Bay is a class act.
What a wonderful race he ran in defeat off of top weight.

Those who labelled him a dog,or a nutter just demonstrate their ignorance. Failing to appreciate his last 2 outings/wins and his obvious change in demeanour since joining his new yard.
Report JOCI Club December 1, 2012 3:49 PM GMT
Bobs Worth 94% 1st
Hold On Julio 69% 5th
Tidal Bay 63% 2nd
First Lieutenant 59% 3rd
Frisco Depot 55%
Duke Of Lucca 49%
Saint Are 49%
Teaforthree 46%
Harry The Viking 45%
Magnanimity 42%
The Package 41% 4th
Lion Na Bearnai 39%
Roberto Goldback 39%
Diamond Harry 38%
Soll 37%
Carruthers 35%
Alfie Spinner 31%
Ikorodu Road 23%
Fruity O´Rooney 9%

The trends knew again!

Final 19 decs.
Report Facts December 1, 2012 3:53 PM GMT
Good stuff Joci
Report JOCI Club December 1, 2012 3:57 PM GMT
Fruity ran a lot better than the trends suggested, and I thought Tidal Bay would be a huge player rounding the home turn. Great run by him. Really seems to be a reformed character lately.
Report turnip turns December 1, 2012 3:59 PM GMT
BobsLove
Report turnip turns December 1, 2012 4:02 PM GMT
top work joci btwCool
Report roobuck December 1, 2012 4:05 PM GMT
Well done all BW backers, and u/l to those who backed TB thinking it was going to be softer.
Report Facts December 1, 2012 4:20 PM GMT
Yep - I backed TB. Tremendous effort under top weight.
If it was softer Bobs Worth would have been withdrawn - and TB would have been a deserved winner !
Report buddeliea December 1, 2012 4:31 PM GMT
i would be one of them RooCry

hes great though,and hopefully finally silence all those that enjoy knocking him.
Report FOYLESWAR December 1, 2012 4:33 PM GMT
welldun bobs worth backers !
Report zilzal1 December 1, 2012 4:33 PM GMT
I wonder,  just under 4 weeks, Chepstow usually gets rain, He'd have quite a few of them out of the handicap..
Report judorick December 1, 2012 4:34 PM GMT
cracking thread
Report GoldCupWinner December 1, 2012 4:57 PM GMT
Tidal Bay has always been a loveable rougue. Happy to see him come good! Could even place in the gold cup.
Report GoldCupWinner December 1, 2012 5:02 PM GMT
Teaforthree ran an eye catching race as far as the Welsh national goes. Can see him going very well.
Report JOCI Club December 1, 2012 5:03 PM GMT
Well, the ill fated Synchronised won it against expectation, so no reason why Tiday Bay shouldn't be able to place if he retains his form and there's some juice in the ground, especially if it's one of those attritional races where many will be raising the white flag round the home turn.

Can't see him winning though....too many promising horses on an upward curve coming through.
Report buddeliea December 1, 2012 5:03 PM GMT
Yeh,took 100 with SJ the other day,25 now!! Was to win though.
If its softish on the day hes in with a shout.Not far behind the fav for the race today,giving 6lb.
Bobsworth will improve though and is a worthy fav,but soft ground would open it up for sure.
Report Millerracing67 December 1, 2012 5:07 PM GMT
Cracking race 2day. Great performance from Bobs to land this prize 1st time up.
Tidal Bay gave a great account of himself off 11.12, but the Chelts G-Cup is norm run on gd ground, he would struggle on that front.
Report buddeliea December 1, 2012 5:13 PM GMT
yep,he would.
Been a lot of rain about this year and already had a soft ground meeting at Cheltenham, and no doubt a lot more rain to come during the next few months.
The price was worth the chance it may just be a soft festival.
Report zilzal1 December 1, 2012 5:33 PM GMT
Im talking the Welsh national, its no good wrapping him up for the future as long as he comes out of this ok, he's going to be going up the handicap even more after this, he hardly got a whupping today off Ruby either
Report GoldCupWinner December 1, 2012 5:36 PM GMT
Yeah I except Bobs Worth to confirm the form even at revised weights but given that horse is favourite so either we have a fav favourite or Tidal Bay could easily place. Weather is all over the place at the minute so wouldn't rule out soft ground. Don't forget it was in April when he got a bog at Sandown.
Report GoldCupWinner December 1, 2012 5:40 PM GMT
expect*

Agree that he would be interesting in Welsh National too, even given top weight.
Report Brooksielad December 1, 2012 5:50 PM GMT
I'd be worried about Tidal Bay not having Ruby in the gold cup, been defending Tidal Bay for a very long time. Its nice to see he's at a stable that know how to train horses now, just a shame he wasn't with Nicholls from day one.
Report JOCI Club December 1, 2012 5:52 PM GMT
Bobs Worth again didn't jump great for me (though Francome thought he did), so if / when he brushes up in that department, he should be even better.
Report zilzal1 December 1, 2012 5:52 PM GMT
Jacob did a good job at Sandown!!
Report Brooksielad December 1, 2012 7:17 PM GMT
Just watched the race back, I think First Lieutenant was quite keen early on and a more patient ride would probably have seen him finish much closer. So I can see him heading for the gold cup and being held up as opposed to out there making it. Crazy how Bobs Worth just keeps galloping though.
Report JOCI Club December 1, 2012 7:34 PM GMT
Never been a great fan of First Lieutenant, as I feel he never puts it all in and can be a bit 'faint hearted' in a finish. Having said that, he did run a perfectly respectable race (the hard way) today, so maybe I'm being a bit harsh. Doesn't win enough for me nowadays.
Report Facts December 1, 2012 9:00 PM GMT
TB for the National !
Report forgotmyusername December 1, 2012 9:47 PM GMT
I was on Tidal Bay from last week and have no complaints as the best horse won. Would like to point out the obvious though, that Paul Nicholls is some trainer! Having got to know the horse he has now produced 2 fantastic weight carrying performances in 2 of the hardest handicaps races in the calendar (with a hurdles win in between).Even Howard Johnson would never have thought that possible.
Report Far From Trouble December 1, 2012 9:50 PM GMT
Didn't give Tidal Bay a prayer here and he ran an aboslute stormer.

Never rated Howard Johnson as a trainer and now TB has ran one of his best ever races rising 12. Fair play Paul Nicholls

Inglis Drever must have been some horse for Howard to get 3 Stayers Hurdles out of him!
Report booster December 3, 2012 12:29 PM GMT
The owner's got Sir Des Champs and some others for the Gold Cup and First Lieutenant would be interesting in the Ryanair as he always seems to get outstayed over 3 miles.
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