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harry callaghan
20 Nov 12 22:24
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Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 6,080 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
Well tricky stuff but a handicap all the same...we like...

Well my favourite horse in training is favourite here... no gamer animal in training for me bobs worth....but with likely soft ground he is tight at 4-1

the package is next best but with the likely soft ground he is high enough in the weights and off an 8lbs higher mark and with his in an out style he is passed over at 7-1

hold on julio is next best and has been trained for this but makes no appeal at the 10-1 on offer...his running against alfie sherrin was poor and the baltazar king form should be treated with caution in my opinion...

friscot depots race at ascot when he was travelling well when departing was a muddling race with no pace on early and they were sprinting when departing 3 out when yes he was travelling with ease but had also pulled most of the race so what he had left is open to question and make zero appeal at 14's

tidal bay looks likely to run at haydock the weekend

saint are has been trained for this and is respected from his good trainer...my main problem with this fellow is he was hit 8lbs for winning at aintree on better ground he will get here and appears better in the spring (never won off the lay off) the second horse at aintree is a course specialist but is a complete mut if ever there was one and the others aren't much on paper...I think it was a poor race at aintree and the 8lbs he got will be to much for this slightly exposed chaser...he is respected all the same

with the likely soft ground burton port is respected even off of a big weight but as much as he is 9lbs higher than when 2nd to diamond harry he hasn't had his favoured  soft ground for 7 runs and can't help but feel he will go well with ideal conditions likely...

the one i am most keen on and have bet is michel le bon and i believe is a real tad of value here and have bet accordingly at the 12's...some may argue he hasn't a lot of form in the book and would agree to an extent but don't believe he has had anything go his way...I was seriously against him last year at 10-1 in this race and he ran to form...it was just a tad to much for him on only his second career start over fences caught 8 wide the whole journey he ran a race better than i thought he would but a crippling mistake 6 out done for him...he hung in there but was beaten animal 3 out...some will argue he hasn't gone on but a below par effort on unfavoured fast going at kempton a flat fast track wouldn't of suited him, before a nice run on soft over hurdles to put him back on track at cheltenham was a nice end of year...he returned at wincanton and ran respectively behind the pipe trained the package who got first run on good/soft, jumping slightly left at his fences...this for me was the first bit of form he has put in the book and was most credible considering the winner got first run and it was still his 4th career start over fences...walsh wasn't hard on him and just gave him a couple of love taps just to keep him interested...he hasn't had his favoured soft ground for 4 years and although he isn't the quickest he will love the soft ground expected and now warrants serious respect off of 144 on a track he likes...tidal bay looks likely to contest the betfair chase could be wrong and harry the viking has little ability...so he could be nicholls ony serious runner...I think he will improve considerably for real soft ground and considering he and the package pulled 41 lengths clear in a competitive handicap i expect him to improve considerably for the run...

the way i am playing

1 1/2 points ew michel le bon @ 12's

1/2  point ew burton port 20's (waiting to see if a runner first)

1/4 win saint are @ 16's

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Replies: 246
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 21 Nov 12 07:16
good write up harry and good luck ,
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 21 Nov 12 07:52
Yep agreed. Good write up. Thanks. I cant see past Harrys Favourite horse Bobs Worth for this one. I got on at 7's which feels a good price. Not a great price today but I reckon 3m2f round Newbury in soft is a doddle compared to 3m1f round Cheltenham at RSA pace and Bobs Worth is a real tough horse. If he is anywhere near fit he's the one for me.
By:
roobuck
When: 21 Nov 12 08:18
Problem with Bobs Worth is that he isn't proven on very soft ground and whilst its possible we could get a dry spell, with the water table being so high now it won't take much rain to turn if soft again very quickly. Everything else is, I agree, in his favour.

Has anyone heard/read anything about plans for Fruity O'Rooney? Not much scope for too much improvement of his mark I accept, but a genuine type whose run style may well suit the race. 33s is a very fair price imo
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 21 Nov 12 09:53
i have unfortunately taken 9/2 which for a big handicap appears tight and i dont normally take this sort of price but i cant honestly see another runner will go in again next week when nr no bet and best odds guaranteed
By:
Brooksielad
When: 21 Nov 12 10:15
Think planet of sound could be a good play IMO.
By:
Brave dancer
When: 21 Nov 12 18:01
As an eachway shout I like the look of Magnanimity here. Was better in his novice year than last season but trainer thinks he wasn't right (spent 5 months in his box).  Second to Sizing Europe and Roi de mee so far this year and should it be soft come raceday must have a chance off 10-3. I took a bit of 70 and 65 on here... just need it to run... Anyone know trainers intentions?
By:
turnip turns
When: 21 Nov 12 18:16
Can't see Bobs running in soft ground tbhPlain
By:
kwality
When: 21 Nov 12 18:43
Anyone know plans for Soll Confused
By:
Ekbalco
When: 21 Nov 12 19:29
Bobs Worth way too tight - Cheltenham in March is his playground.

Hold On Julio is the most interesting for me.
By:
turnip turns
When: 21 Nov 12 19:31
Cheltenham in March is his playground.  agreedCool
By:
willie the milk
When: 21 Nov 12 19:41
Will need to have a little e-w Diamond Harry. Now off 143, he won this race in 2010 off 156 beating Burton Port getting 1lb, now receiving 23lbs. Ok I know his form of late has been worse than terrible but he is priced accordingly. 33s. Got to play a littleSilly
By:
Ekbalco
When: 21 Nov 12 19:44
Sour as a 6 month old yoghurt willers.
By:
stevo1
When: 22 Nov 12 09:56
Burton Port 42s on here big price imo.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 22 Nov 12 10:10
ye big price stevo if a runner been very weak in the betting though so will wait for decs for him, till playing myself
By:
turnip turns
When: 22 Nov 12 12:35
Got this reply from the part owner of bobsLove re soft ground.

Justin Deacon ‏@justindeacon

would have to be a bog for him not to run I'd imagine. It's his only real target until end jan so got to go for really
By:
roobuck
When: 22 Nov 12 12:38
Thanks a lot tt - question is though will he go on it?
By:
turnip turns
When: 22 Nov 12 12:44
I love the horse,but i would have doubts and his current price is very tight,but the owner sounds very confident,he still thinks 7/2 is value.On the day job for me,Newbury can get very testing,personally more interested in him at Chelts in March.
By:
roobuck
When: 22 Nov 12 12:51
Bob's Worth has a fantastic attitude though and that will count for a lot I guess. Couldn't possibly back a 7/2 horse in this race.

Keep looking at Fruity e/w at 33s and that appeals more than BW and would give virtually the same return for a place. Not 100% sure he's going for it though
By:
turnip turns
When: 22 Nov 12 13:00
His attitude is what i love about him and it will serve him wellLove i think you'll get 9/2 in the morning,would back at that price,but wouldn't go mad,like you i like big prices in handicaps,Frisco Depot was interesting until Segal put it upCry the juice has been pretty much been sucked out of his price now. Fruity e/w at 33s looks a decent price and he too has a likable attitude,good luckCool
By:
liam the lips
When: 22 Nov 12 13:15
Kwality - re Soll - remember seeing him at Chelt, he looked awful that day along with Mullins other runeer in the 4 miler and infact alot of his runners at the festival - might have precipitated the owner/breeders stable switch, tho he does have previous of doing that. Either way 139 is a v attractive mark if he responds to the Blockley magic !
By:
kwality
When: 22 Nov 12 15:02
Just watched the 4 miler back, he was hardly given the most positive of rides in comparison to his other starts. On winter ground over the hennessy trip, he looks the least exposed horse in what looks on paper to be quite an uninspiring race. If not for the trainer switch, i think he'd be half the price
By:
unclepuncle
When: 22 Nov 12 15:33
Duke Of Lucca for me.
By:
Tucho
When: 22 Nov 12 18:47
any thoughts on Magnanimity anybody? horse looked like he was going places 2 years ago

last year he ran in several grade 1s so the trainer obviously thought something of him, but but was incredibly disappointing

did anything ever come out, genuine excuses for him, or is he just not as good as hoped?

will he even come over for this or is he racing on sunday in ireland?
By:
Millerracing67
When: 23 Nov 12 15:24
Like Bobs Worth for the race, touch of class about him, only bad ground would put me off.
By:
Brave dancer
When: 23 Nov 12 17:09
Only thing I found on Magnanimity is this on the Sportinglife site:-

http://tinyurl.com/cuzfkak

Sounds quite hopeful from Dessie Hughes that hes got him back again...

Cheers,
Bravedancer
By:
zilzal1
When: 23 Nov 12 18:04
lots of rain f/c next week according to the Beeb
By:
buddeliea
When: 23 Nov 12 18:21
want it soft for my hope Tidal Bay,but not too much thats its rained off!!

I'm hoping they pulled him out of the Betfair tmrw,cos they fancy his chances next week.
By:
roobuck
When: 23 Nov 12 18:25
Knowing it was going to be soft tomorrow, I backed him AP for the Betfair - a little surprised they pulled him out tbh
By:
harry callaghan
When: 24 Nov 12 09:09
did you not think tidal bay had enough weight budd?? beat drains at sandown for me and the handicapper hit him 12lbs for the privilege...he will get his ground and would warrant respect on his favoured ground after a nice prep in a small field at wetherby...very difficult to evaluate him off a career high mark and he is 11(but better than ever)...yes he could go well but a tough ask here for a horse who hasn't always been the most reliable jumper...i know cause i backed him at sandown and its queecy bum time the whole way...i think the real national trips maybe best for him now (maybe the welsh was mentioned by the owner))but we will see...
By:
zilzal1
When: 24 Nov 12 10:24
I thought he jumped better than any time in his career at Sandown(im actually still not certain that he will do it again on anything but soft)the weather is f/c to get worse and they may not risk Bobs on it

Cant have him outs the four under these conditions at 16-1, before Sandown the last time he got really soft ground(kirkland called it g/s ffs) was when he was up Imperials arse at Haydock, its a nice long straight at Newbury
By:
harry callaghan
When: 24 Nov 12 10:49
agree zilzal he did jump well - under for me the ride of the season last year...but the race was full of exposed over the top horses and the race fell in his lap...he was well handicapped then but is not now after he was hit 12lbs for the privilege of beating bad horses and this is going to be much tougher off of 166...i can definitely see him running well but if he wins this it will destroy me from a handicapping prospective as think he has a lot on his plate here...he will be staying on agree, but how fast is another matter
By:
JOCI Club
When: 24 Nov 12 10:53
It will be a monumental achievement for him to win the Hennessy.

Excellent engine, but extremely quirky frustrating horse.
By:
roobuck
When: 24 Nov 12 10:54
I'd be surprised if he was good enough to defy his current mark.

You say harry that the welsh was mentioned by the owner, I'd be surprised but happy if he went for that as it should make it a simpler puzzle to fathom
By:
zilzal1
When: 24 Nov 12 10:58
I can see where you are coming from on a strict handicapping criteria, but under desperate conditions, and imo, they will be next week(hope its on) you can chuck a lot of the form outa the window and focus on if a horse can act on it and can he carry the weight, at 16-1 ew 1/4 1st four, if he jumps like Sandown he goes very close
By:
harry callaghan
When: 24 Nov 12 11:03
thats a fair point zilzal and can see your reasoning...joci club makes a very valid point also he is a quirky customer but a talented one...he will be staying on if his jumping is on song thats for sure...but 166 is brutal and 12lbs was ridiculous from the handicapper for beating those horses at sandown
By:
Mental_patienT
When: 24 Nov 12 11:21
Soll running is up in the air. Trainer wants to test it but know a few people ave advised not to go for Hennessy.
By:
roobuck
When: 24 Nov 12 12:25
Got the news I wanted about Fruity and going to leave him e/w as my only bet
By:
shockster
When: 24 Nov 12 20:46
Can see the angle with Fruity, but happy with Alfie Spinner and Duke of Lucca against the field.
By:
forgotmyusername
When: 24 Nov 12 21:12
With zilzal on this one. Have had a good look through the race(not a great renewal) and think Tidal Bay is a huge runner. Will be very surprised if he goes off bigger than 8/1 next week.
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