Darlan Racing Post Hurdle Cheltenham

Really like the horse but would have thought he would be bette served going for a graded/open event at this stage.

NJH mentioned the Fighting Fifth as an alternative and wouldn't be surprised if that's where goes.  Henderson has another likely one for the race

Cash and Go

In his stable tour this was plan for Darlan or as you mention Fighting Fifth?

Big field 2 m handicap hurdles are the NH equivalent of 5 f on the flat - you need so much luck. I certainly wouldn't be backing a 5/1 shot at this stage, especially one who will need luck in running. Snap Tie and Une Artiste would both be interesting on the day.

Whilst I agree re a 5/1 shot in a competitive handicap, don't agree re form/luck in 2m handicap hurdles, especially the best class ones

It's the pace that matters most as witness recently in Aus & Usa. Thankfully over here most races are run at a good clip on decent tracks.

Maybe not the Greatwood - it has generally been won by good horses - but a several wild cards have won the Ladbroke, County and Schweppes Hurdles for example in the last few years.

Lucky or well handicapped? I can't think there's that much luck involved tbh. Tricky races because they are so competitive imo.

Regarding Darlan I hope he runs in something like the Fighting Fifth. If they wanted to go handicap route would have preferred him running in the Elite Hurdle. I think while many are capable it's tough on novices first time out carrying top weight in a race like this and expecting them to carry their form through the season.

can see this starting very short

Ladbrokes gone best odds this evening, and pushed Darlan and most other horses our by a point or 2. Darlan now 5s.

e/w bet to nothing, cant see how it can finish out of the 4

Given how he was running off 146 in the Betfair you struggle to see how an extra 5lbs will trouble him in an easier race with another year on his back. 5/1 good price

Is this a rick by lads? Suddenly top price every horse!!

changed now

Darlan (GB)    5       11 8
Snap Tie (IRE)    10       11 8
Prospect Wells (FR)    7       11 3
Moon Dice (IRE)    7       11 2
Starluck (IRE)    7       11 1
Blue Bajan (IRE)    10       11 1
Rattan (USA)    7       10 13
Cash And Go (IRE)    5       10 12
Bothy (GB)    6       10 11
It's A Gimme (IRE)    5       10 11
Domination (GB)    5       10 7
Constant Contact (GB)    5       10 7
Kazlian (FR)    4       10 7
Olofi (FR)    6       10 7
Vendor (FR)    4       10 7
One Cool Shabra (IRE)    4       10 6
Cause of Causes (USA)    4       10 5
Ted Spread (GB)    5       10 3
Hi Dancer (GB)    9       10 2
Glam Gerry (IRE)    8       10 2
Dark Lover (GER)    7       10 2
Hunters Belt (IRE)    8       10 1
King of Queens (IRE)    7       10 0
Star of Aragon (IRE)    6       9 8
Grey Soldier (IRE)    7       9 7
The Tiddly Tadpole (GB)    7       9 4

Are any Darlan fans worried by how the Supreme form is working out so far (given he'll have top weight). Surely there's something better handicapped in here?

I think the form will work out, largely because i'm certain Montbazon will have improved over the summer. But he is not running until the winter so at the moment the form is there to be knocked.

7/2? Not for me anywhoo

Not many dangers imo to Darlan,good few exposed Cash And Go and Its a Gimme only 2 dangers imo. Happy with my 6/1.

A weak race full of badly handicapped horses, Cash and Go interesting, but apart from that you can pick holes in the rest.

I seriously think this will go off 2/1

Ladbrokes were staging a NH Preview evening at Cheltenham last night, went top price all runners in both the RP Hurdle and PP Chase, nothing more to read into it

As MM say if you look at how he was going in the Betfair off 146, he could be really thrown in, especially as I really rate Zarkandar. His form with Prospect Wells at Aintree reads pretty well now after the Elite Hurdle, however much that was hardly a race to be convinced about as they want no pace for the first 1/2 mile.

However Darlan didn't beat him anywhere near as far in the Supreme, and his only really other below par effort last season was also at Cheltenham. If this was being run on a flat track then, on reflection, I'd agree, he'd be a decent now , even at 7/2. But even though he does have Grade 1 course form, its enough to put me off.

Cash and Go as an alternative for me

Cash and Go 4 me too, a grade 1 winner when he was 4, easy to see plenty of upside off 141 with a positive stable change. I think he scoped badly after the Deloitte so hope all is well on that front !

liam, your picture is disturbing

I love this race.

I am inclined to agree with the logic that suggests Darlan should not be bothered by 5lb more than when running a blinder in a really good Gold Trophy, but weight just might be more of an issue than the handicap mark. If he was running in a lower-class race I'd not mind that he'll shoulder top weight but this is a very good race and will expose any weaknesses if they are present. Coupled with the hint that he might not be quite as effective at Cheltenham as elsewhere, I think I'll skip him at the prices.

The one I like at 16s is Vendor. He was very disappointing the other day on his return but was backed as though he was expected to oblige and was given an easy time of it when his chance had gone (he did pull too hard). I don't think it's any secret that King thinks he is a very smart horse in the making and I'll be really disappointed if he's not better than 136. Possible that he wants a little further but I suspect a really strongly run race will help, so he's the one for me.

Darlan standing out a mile to me anyway. Can't understand how he is only 5 pounds higher than Newbury? He was travelling like a winner and the 1st 3 home that day are now all rated significantly higher than they were then. And also on his two subsequent runs he looks well-in to me off 151. Where is the evidence that he doesn't run as well at Cheltenham? He got a terrible ride at the festival. Was even surprised to see the RP analysis note this fact as AP has often been riding Cheltenham poorly over the years due to him being regulary oblivious to the tangent phenomenon on losing ground by going wide. It's about time the racing press pointed out some weakness in his tactics. If he had switched jocks with the winner Darlan would of won by 2 lengths last March. In fact I would say he is unlucky to not be unbeaten and already looks a 160+ horse to me on previous form.

I'm happy to have taken 6's and 5's each way, looks a much better bet than Grand Crus at comparative odds. Someone mentioned the luck factor? This race almost always goes according to the book. Horses get aimed at it but nothing to the extent of the County or Coral where 12 or more from top top yards are primed to the minute. This a different race alltogether. Luck would play a much bigger role in the PP chase than this race.

I would agree re Vendor. He is the one that could pop up. Afraid of him the most.

Darlan standing out a mile to me anyway. Can't understand how he is only 5 pounds higher than Newbury? He was travelling like a winner and the 1st 3 home that day are now all rated significantly higher than they were then. And also on his two subsequent runs he looks well-in to me off 151. Where is the evidence that he doesn't run as well at Cheltenham? He got a terrible ride at the festival. Was even surprised to see the RP analysis note this fact as AP has often been riding Cheltenham poorly over the years due to him being regulary oblivious to the tangent phenomenon on losing ground by going wide. It's about time the racing press pointed out some weakness in his tactics. If he had switched jocks with the winner Darlan would of won by 2 lengths last March. In fact I would say he is unlucky to not be unbeaten and already looks a 160+ horse to me on previous form.

I'm happy to have taken 6's and 5's each way, looks a much better bet than Grand Crus at comparative odds. Someone mentioned the luck factor? This race almost always goes according to the book. Horses get aimed at it but nothing to the extent of the County or Coral where 12 or more from top top yards are primed to the minute. This a different race alltogether. Luck would play a much bigger role in the PP chase than this race.

I would agree re Vendor. He is the one that could pop up. Afraid of him the most.

If Darlan and Its a Gimme show up, which one will the champ ride ? Maybe stick Linehan on jonjo's to try and offset his 5lb rise.

100% rides Darlan, no way in a million years he would chose Its a Gimme

What did NJH say about Darlan in todays RP pullout ? Wudn't surprise me if he didn't show up here with prospect of 11-12 to shoulder.

He is also entered in the Fighting Fifth.

That would make more sense imo

Darlan at 3s? Not for me.
I like to look at the bigger priced horses and the one I like is Blue Bajan. All the stats are against it(10yo) but that is how you will get 25s Not been seen over hurdles since running, and getting injured, in the 2010 Tote Gold Trophy off 144 (11-12) This year Darlan run off of 146 (10-10) so it was a better race. However he has been running consistantly well in good competitive flat races since making his comeback in May 2011. Still rated in the high 90s so retains all his ability.

if blue bajan wins I give up the game, and I love the horse!!

Darlan in post interview with Henderson,likely to start Racing Post Hurdle Sunday. Money for it last few days would suggest so, no reason not to most of field exposed. Re Cheltenham record re above post somewhere he has run at track twice one novice win and 2nd in Supreme,not sure where he not suited to Cheltenham think he is going to go very close.

stevo I posted the comment about Cheltenham though I never went as far to say he wasn't suited byt the course, more to say/imply that a flat course plays to his undoubted strengths more.

If you take his novice win, it was his most unconvincing imo. With regards the Supreme he didn't travel particularly well through the race and he beat Prospect Wells much, much further at Liverpool.

He is still a very young horse and the above may be meaningless and there may be genuine reasons. In any case he be well enough handicapped to overcome any small issue with Cheltenham if there is one.

Its simply for me that this was enough of a reason for not taking a tight price in a handicap.

I chose to go with Cash and Go as mentioned he had good form in Ireland and previous connections, one used to post here, was quite hopeful of a good showing in the Supreme. Change of trainer hardly a negative, and his best form was shown on the best ground he encountered.

Agree roobuck Cash and Go one of only a few which maybe progressive,think he may prefer much softer surface though did win on good/yielding but certainly in right stable. Darlan price is about right now imo given field,but at 6/1 was very decent imo. Same as Grand Crus when he was 6s given field now,punters just looking at bigger prices as both Favs now bit short imo, maybe wrongly.

Anyone got a reason for PROSPECT WELLS being 32 on here,
good run last week, but is it too soon?

I would of thought he is not running, then again Al Ferof was at least 70s for Paddy Power on here few weeks back!

If you take the Supreme form at face value then Prospect Wells is as reasonably treated as Darlan. He would certainly be suited by a faster pace to aim at but whilst I can see him going close of this mark in future handicaps, he may be vulnerable at this early stage to improvers that have had less opportunity to show their ability. That said he has been raised by 4 for the future.

Not sure I have seen too many from PFN turn out so quickly but if he were to pitch up, 32 seriously underestimates his chance

If I fancied Darlan I would not be worried about the 11st12lb. Class horses usually come to the fore in this race notably Menorah who won it off 151 just recently.

There is a suspicion he might be better, perhaps, on a flat track but it is only a suspicion, nothing more than that looking at his form. Same thing was said of Gradouet so it's very dangerous to pigeon hole novices.

There is a lot of rain forecast for Saturday.

Menorah did win the race off 151 and top weight, like Darlan will try to do. But Menorah had won the Supreme, demonstrating an aptitude for the course, and he was double the price of Darlan. Menorah's Supreme was probably stronger as well, and Darlan could well go off at 2/1, making him a third of the price of Men. Darlan is far far too short in my book.

I think Kazlian and Vendor are the lurkers here.

Yeah I agree and that's why some have decided not to back him. They usually get turned over when they're short.

It is certainly true that the juice is now gone out of Darlans price. It is also true that his current odds are lobsided in relation to Prospect Wells odds. However, it is an error to decide to just look at the one piece of form from March and to take it literally and deduce it means there is little bewteen them. For starters Darlan got a terrible ride and was much wider all the way than PW. Also, the Aintree raced confirmed Darlan a far superior horse as has the subsequent formline with Zarkander. Absolutely all evidence suggests Darlan to be a significantly superior animal. Maybe not as much as the prices suggest but everything still points to the Henderson horse having a big edge.

I also must seriously question the suggestion that Menorah, by winning the Supreme Novices had shown an aptitude for the course but Darlan hasn't because he only came second in the same race? Look at the race again. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that the horse was in any way inconvenienced by the downhill as he travelled fluently in a good rhythm through this section. He also finished better than everything with the exception of the winner who will very likely go on to become a 165+ horse this year (personally I think he will be 170 and win the Champion) according to his shrewd trainer who should know, especially as he has Overturn to compare with. So yeah, again nothing but strong evidence that he will have no problems with the Cheltenham hill. He got a terrible ride last March, wide all the way, especially rounding the last bend where he lost several lengths. He ran a cracker in the circumstances and must emerge with great credit.

P.S. To be fair to AP it is possible he took a wide berth as the horse was young and had taken a horrible fall at Newbury and he wanted to give him sight of the hurdles. However, it wouldn't be the first time AP has lost a lot of ground by riding Cheltenham poorly.

So you will in no way accept the superiority he showed over PW at Liverpool may, I repeat may, have had something to do with a flatter / faster course?

He clearly acts around Cheltenham and the way he finished in Supreme, and his poor run imo in a novice event, showed that stamina or the hill isn't an issue.

He has only run 6 times and twice at Cheltenham over hurdles - I would actually suggest there is no strong evidence either way. Obviously a very good horse, will be interesting to see how good

Yeh,very interesting.
I am of the view that the Supreme wont add up to much this season and will swerve the likes of Darlan and Cinders and Ashes early on this season.
Therefore on Sunday i shall be looking lower in the weights for the likely winner.

@roobuck; Yes, it may be a factor.

But it's my contention that he didn't run any better at Liverpool than at Cheltenham. The lengths he lost were many plus also the slow pace was a big factor. He got shoved so wide off the last bend and lost a few lengths at a vital time. I honestly believe he ran an absolute cracker and that he and the winner were by far the two best horses on the day. If it was a fast pace and he got a better ride the first two would of pulled clear. Just my opinion.

I believe the overall form of the race to be weak with the exception of the 1st 2 who I see as 160+ types at least. Time will tell.

Bud ,

I think cinders will surprise a few people this year - very open champion hurdle but want him in my stable

Yeh,maybe mate,would not be a major surprise being the top 2m novice.
Thats just my view at the moment on the supreme,but that could all change.
If Cinders wins the Fighting Fifth beating ROR,then i have to rethink straight away.
I do find his price for that race baffling-fav?
Im also think current price for CH is skinny as well.

I'm doing my brains on ch already - had 80 on zark at 14.5 but laid it off at similar price as thought pw would win sat and odds may go up ! Now in on c and a and nipping at darlan - I reckon ditching top 6 would prob make money but ..... I'm a huge h fly fan so hope he fires thus year but won't be getting involved ap just yet .

Any thoughts / opinions on rsa ? I know it is off topic

Regards

dtamutants
Date Joined: 15 Jan 08
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14 Nov 12 12:57
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Menorah did win the race off 151 and top weight, like Darlan will try to do. But Menorah had won the Supreme, demonstrating an aptitude for the course, and he was double the price of Darlan. Menorah's Supreme was probably stronger as well, and Darlan could well go off at 2/1, making him a third of the price of Men. Darlan is far far too short in my book.

I think Kazlian and Vendor are the lurkers here.

so do I (and maybe Bothy too!)

Not looked at race in detail yet but think it might be significant that King was initially talking about Raya Star for this race until he won at Ascot and now relies on Vendor
Would rather back him ew than Darlan at the prices.

think there are a lot of potentially closely matched runners in here & the Irish contingent need consideration

AP to ride Its a Gimme I believe. Very surprising.

Suppose they must fancy putting a claimer on Darlan to keep the weight down....

Forget that... still deciding. I misread my text!

No way does anyone other than AP ride Darlan imvho

Yep I was very surprised when I misread it! Although I did think it might make sense to get a decent claimer on Darlan to ease the weight. But at the end of the day, JP will decide.

Ann Stokell has been riding out at Hendersons, any chance she'l get the nod

The horse is only supposed to carry 11-12 Liam.

I must admit i haven't seen her lately stront - but if NJH needs a strong pair of hands . . .

JP Magnier always available. 7lb off but like a penalty of a few stone.

I backed one of hers in the Foxhunters a few years ago. I think it may still be going round. I still feel the shame

^ Actual LOL here..very good SD

Can anyone put me off Dark Lover for this,Never been out the first 2 and won with a bit in hand after a long absence around here..No weight and is totally unexposed plus Ryan seems to ride Cheltenham very well,If he runs i'll have a win/place on him as i didn't expect him to be pitched into such a tough race..Interesting runner imo

Dark Lover won well at the last meeting but it was a pretty poor race.
Up 11lb,in a much stronger contest and fairly quick 2nd run after a massive lay off. Too many negatives for me.

Thanks for the reply Flyingbolt...

So no Its A Gimme. PW declared with Harry onboard - hope you took the 32 on offer bazz.

Yes I did but was going to double with my selection for PADDY P, but because of the big price on here, didn't bother.

G/l bazz. I might play him e/w but will wait on ground. The more rain that comes, the less he will prefer it.

So what have you chosen for PP?

WALKON.

Sorry all Darlan backers....but go on Nicky pull him out

Darlan is set to give Pros wells 12lb yet PW  was argueably less suited by the slow early pace in the supreme novice. Like the fact
that he also ran very well in probably a better handicap hurdle (the ladbroke).They weny so slow early at wincanton that I doubt it
took much out of him and he should be primed for this. The main concern is if the ground is too soft for him . Given present best odds 14/1 then the ground doubt can be withstanded within the price and backed him . Also think his stable mate Dark lover could
run well and had something on him at 14/1. (note Henderson has said he may pull out Darlan leaving a big r4 at 9/4)

Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
Darlan a "serious doubt" for ther Racing Post Hurdle says Nicky Henderson. Decision in morning. Cash And Go and Captain Conan definitely run

I see cash and go has joined new stable since last season, how is he CCM? LOL or is he also with new owners as well?

Really like KAZLIAN for this, was 14s this afternoon while the PP was being run, missed the boat completely but spose could wait till morning see if they push him out, tho then again if darlan dont run!

CCM sold cash and go iirc

darlan won't run according to sportinglife website

Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
Darlan will not run tomorrow at Cheltenham, Nicky Henderson has announced. "We are sorry but the horse comes first," he said.

paddypoweraudioteam ‏@PPaudioteam
@Racing_Post On the back of news that Darlan & Sprinter Sacre won't be running tomorrow, we're refunding ALL ante-post bets on both horses!

Wasn't Olofi a forum 'charge' horse on at least one occasion last season? Got his ground tomorrow so I'll give him another chance along with Cash And Go.

Can't do any worse than I did in the PP today.

I have to say in terms of PR, what PP have done re refunding Darlan AP bets is first class.

I still think that Darlan will be better served running in the Fighting Fifth anyway.

Yes uncle lost a bit on Olofi last year and also giving him another chance along with Bothy, think their experience on the ground could also be important. Small e/w to back up Cash and Go - don't worry you'll have a better day tomorrow

Vendor NR now too

Cant really get an angle on this so its a bet on

KAZLIAN for me in this, a pipe stable seasonal debutant (unbelievable record at this meeting) also being a potential improver at the prices has to be a bet 8/1 bog, main bet!

Small on OLOFI, DARK LOVER, BOTHY

all e.w as always

GL

unclepuncle
17 Nov 12 19:38
Wasn't Olofi a forum 'charge' horse on at least one occasion last season? Got his ground tomorrow so I'll give him another chance along with Cash And Go.

Kiss my face

Backed Olofi and Bothy today, thought they were going to bring each other down lol. Had Ted Spread before the ground went against him, really fancied him. Wnt to see Olofi over a fence, looks like Hennessy horse imo.

Back of the net Unclepuncle..WD

olofi was not particularly unexposed or well handicapped imo, usually solid and consistent but that's his first win in almost 3 years

weak race, surely darlan would have jizzed up if he's to be any kind of champion hurdle horse

I'm not so sure Tucho, Olofi has always promised to deliver more given his conditions. Personally I think he'll remain competitive off his new mark and actually think that Darlan would have struggled to give him over a stone on that ground.

For a young horse think that the 3rd's performance can be upgraded and will be one to follow in future handicaps

Have done this twice this year and both times my first thoughts have proved the best, OLOFI
for the RACING P and Willing Foe for EBOR, changed onto horses with more recent decent form
MOTIVATOR in Ebor and PROSPECT WELLS yesterday.
Drawn both times but can't help kicking myself.

You may well not agree bazz as I know you have your thoughts on it, but imvho ground went against PW.

Given decent spring ground, County Hurdle

The two words that lead me away from your surmise are
SADDLERS WELLS, probably too short a space between races.

ffs hendo

too scared to run darlan in a handicap off 151 blaming the soft ground, but he's happy enough to go and win a grade 1 on heavy ground fto



tried to wrap his horses in cotton wool early in the season, then the weather got even worse and all of his horses have had to come out and win on horrible ground (sprinter sacre, simonsig, darlan)

literally what was the big fuss about, i'd love to know?