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stevo1
09 Nov 12 11:15
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Date Joined: 21 Oct 06
| Topic/replies: 3,494 | Blogger: stevo1's blog
if lining up must take plenty of beating even off probable top weight looking at entries.

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Replies: 89
By:
roobuck
When: 09 Nov 12 11:42
Really like the horse but would have thought he would be bette served going for a graded/open event at this stage.

NJH mentioned the Fighting Fifth as an alternative and wouldn't be surprised if that's where goes.  Henderson has another likely one for the race Wink
By:
stevo1
When: 09 Nov 12 11:44
Cash and Go
By:
stevo1
When: 09 Nov 12 11:45
In his stable tour this was plan for Darlan or as you mention Fighting Fifth?
By:
strontium
When: 09 Nov 12 12:15
Big field 2 m handicap hurdles are the NH equivalent of 5 f on the flat - you need so much luck. I certainly wouldn't be backing a 5/1 shot at this stage, especially one who will need luck in running. Snap Tie and Une Artiste would both be interesting on the day.
By:
roobuck
When: 09 Nov 12 12:23
Whilst I agree re a 5/1 shot in a competitive handicap, don't agree re form/luck in 2m handicap hurdles, especially the best class ones
By:
sintonian
When: 09 Nov 12 12:33
It's the pace that matters most as witness recently in Aus & Usa. Thankfully over here most races are run at a good clip on decent tracks.
By:
strontium
When: 09 Nov 12 12:35
Maybe not the Greatwood - it has generally been won by good horses - but a several wild cards have won the Ladbroke, County and Schweppes Hurdles for example in the last few years.
By:
Masterminded
When: 11 Nov 12 17:22
Lucky or well handicapped? I can't think there's that much luck involved tbh. Tricky races because they are so competitive imo.
By:
Masterminded
When: 11 Nov 12 17:26
Regarding Darlan I hope he runs in something like the Fighting Fifth. If they wanted to go handicap route would have preferred him running in the Elite Hurdle. I think while many are capable it's tough on novices first time out carrying top weight in a race like this and expecting them to carry their form through the season.
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 11 Nov 12 18:32
can see this starting very short
By:
corporal
When: 11 Nov 12 20:31
Ladbrokes gone best odds this evening, and pushed Darlan and most other horses our by a point or 2. Darlan now 5s.
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 11 Nov 12 20:44
e/w bet to nothing, cant see how it can finish out of the 4
By:
Masterminded
When: 11 Nov 12 21:11
Given how he was running off 146 in the Betfair you struggle to see how an extra 5lbs will trouble him in an easier race with another year on his back. 5/1 good price
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 11 Nov 12 21:12
Is this a rick by lads? Suddenly top price every horse!!
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 11 Nov 12 21:17
changed now
By:
BJG
When: 12 Nov 12 12:00
Darlan (GB)    5       11 8
Snap Tie (IRE)    10       11 8
Prospect Wells (FR)    7       11 3
Moon Dice (IRE)    7       11 2
Starluck (IRE)    7       11 1
Blue Bajan (IRE)    10       11 1
Rattan (USA)    7       10 13
Cash And Go (IRE)    5       10 12
Bothy (GB)    6       10 11
It's A Gimme (IRE)    5       10 11
Domination (GB)    5       10 7
Constant Contact (GB)    5       10 7
Kazlian (FR)    4       10 7
Olofi (FR)    6       10 7
Vendor (FR)    4       10 7
One Cool Shabra (IRE)    4       10 6
Cause of Causes (USA)    4       10 5
Ted Spread (GB)    5       10 3
Hi Dancer (GB)    9       10 2
Glam Gerry (IRE)    8       10 2
Dark Lover (GER)    7       10 2
Hunters Belt (IRE)    8       10 1
King of Queens (IRE)    7       10 0
Star of Aragon (IRE)    6       9 8
Grey Soldier (IRE)    7       9 7
The Tiddly Tadpole (GB)    7       9 4
By:
strontium
When: 12 Nov 12 12:07
Are any Darlan fans worried by how the Supreme form is working out so far (given he'll have top weight). Surely there's something better handicapped in here?
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Nov 12 12:20
I think the form will work out, largely because i'm certain Montbazon will have improved over the summer. But he is not running until the winter so at the moment the form is there to be knocked.

7/2? Not for me anywhoo
By:
stevo1
When: 12 Nov 12 16:54
Not many dangers imo to Darlan,good few exposed Cash And Go and Its a Gimme only 2 dangers imo. Happy with my 6/1.
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 12 Nov 12 17:15
A weak race full of badly handicapped horses, Cash and Go interesting, but apart from that you can pick holes in the rest.

I seriously think this will go off 2/1
By:
SteveBowers
When: 12 Nov 12 18:23
Ladbrokes were staging a NH Preview evening at Cheltenham last night, went top price all runners in both the RP Hurdle and PP Chase, nothing more to read into it
By:
roobuck
When: 12 Nov 12 19:20
As MM say if you look at how he was going in the Betfair off 146, he could be really thrown in, especially as I really rate Zarkandar. His form with Prospect Wells at Aintree reads pretty well now after the Elite Hurdle, however much that was hardly a race to be convinced about as they want no pace for the first 1/2 mile.

However Darlan didn't beat him anywhere near as far in the Supreme, and his only really other below par effort last season was also at Cheltenham. If this was being run on a flat track then, on reflection, I'd agree, he'd be a decent now , even at 7/2. But even though he does have Grade 1 course form, its enough to put me off.

Cash and Go as an alternative for me
By:
liam the lips
When: 12 Nov 12 20:37
Cash and Go 4 me too, a grade 1 winner when he was 4, easy to see plenty of upside off 141 with a positive stable change. I think he scoped badly after the Deloitte so hope all is well on that front !
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 12 Nov 12 21:34
liam, your picture is disturbing
By:
tomdeane
When: 13 Nov 12 03:03
I love this race.

I am inclined to agree with the logic that suggests Darlan should not be bothered by 5lb more than when running a blinder in a really good Gold Trophy, but weight just might be more of an issue than the handicap mark. If he was running in a lower-class race I'd not mind that he'll shoulder top weight but this is a very good race and will expose any weaknesses if they are present. Coupled with the hint that he might not be quite as effective at Cheltenham as elsewhere, I think I'll skip him at the prices.

The one I like at 16s is Vendor. He was very disappointing the other day on his return but was backed as though he was expected to oblige and was given an easy time of it when his chance had gone (he did pull too hard). I don't think it's any secret that King thinks he is a very smart horse in the making and I'll be really disappointed if he's not better than 136. Possible that he wants a little further but I suspect a really strongly run race will help, so he's the one for me.
By:
gamerawins
When: 13 Nov 12 12:02
Darlan standing out a mile to me anyway. Can't understand how he is only 5 pounds higher than Newbury? He was travelling like a winner and the 1st 3 home that day are now all rated significantly higher than they were then. And also on his two subsequent runs he looks well-in to me off 151. Where is the evidence that he doesn't run as well at Cheltenham? He got a terrible ride at the festival. Was even surprised to see the RP analysis note this fact as AP has often been riding Cheltenham poorly over the years due to him being regulary oblivious to the tangent phenomenon on losing ground by going wide. It's about time the racing press pointed out some weakness in his tactics. If he had switched jocks with the winner Darlan would of won by 2 lengths last March. In fact I would say he is unlucky to not be unbeaten and already looks a 160+ horse to me on previous form.

I'm happy to have taken 6's and 5's each way, looks a much better bet than Grand Crus at comparative odds. Someone mentioned the luck factor? This race almost always goes according to the book. Horses get aimed at it but nothing to the extent of the County or Coral where 12 or more from top top yards are primed to the minute. This a different race alltogether. Luck would play a much bigger role in the PP chase than this race.

I would agree re Vendor. He is the one that could pop up. Afraid of him the most.
By:
gamerawins
When: 13 Nov 12 12:02
Darlan standing out a mile to me anyway. Can't understand how he is only 5 pounds higher than Newbury? He was travelling like a winner and the 1st 3 home that day are now all rated significantly higher than they were then. And also on his two subsequent runs he looks well-in to me off 151. Where is the evidence that he doesn't run as well at Cheltenham? He got a terrible ride at the festival. Was even surprised to see the RP analysis note this fact as AP has often been riding Cheltenham poorly over the years due to him being regulary oblivious to the tangent phenomenon on losing ground by going wide. It's about time the racing press pointed out some weakness in his tactics. If he had switched jocks with the winner Darlan would of won by 2 lengths last March. In fact I would say he is unlucky to not be unbeaten and already looks a 160+ horse to me on previous form.

I'm happy to have taken 6's and 5's each way, looks a much better bet than Grand Crus at comparative odds. Someone mentioned the luck factor? This race almost always goes according to the book. Horses get aimed at it but nothing to the extent of the County or Coral where 12 or more from top top yards are primed to the minute. This a different race alltogether. Luck would play a much bigger role in the PP chase than this race.

I would agree re Vendor. He is the one that could pop up. Afraid of him the most.
By:
liam the lips
When: 13 Nov 12 14:03
If Darlan and Its a Gimme show up, which one will the champ ride ? Maybe stick Linehan on jonjo's to try and offset his 5lb rise.
By:
BJG
When: 13 Nov 12 14:05
100% rides Darlan, no way in a million years he would chose Its a Gimme
By:
liam the lips
When: 13 Nov 12 15:50
What did NJH say about Darlan in todays RP pullout ? Wudn't surprise me if he didn't show up here with prospect of 11-12 to shoulder.
By:
strontium
When: 13 Nov 12 15:52
He is also entered in the Fighting Fifth.
By:
buddeliea
When: 13 Nov 12 16:15
That would make more sense imo
By:
willie the milk
When: 13 Nov 12 19:15
Darlan at 3s? Not for me.
I like to look at the bigger priced horses and the one I like is Blue Bajan. All the stats are against it(10yo) but that is how you will get 25sGrin Not been seen over hurdles since running, and getting injured, in the 2010 Tote Gold Trophy off 144 (11-12) This year Darlan run off of 146 (10-10) so it was a better race. However he has been running consistantly well in good competitive flat races since making his comeback in May 2011. Still rated in the high 90s so retains all his ability.
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 13 Nov 12 20:29
if blue bajan wins I give up the game, and I love the horse!!
By:
stevo1
When: 14 Nov 12 08:36
Darlan in post interview with Henderson,likely to start Racing Post Hurdle Sunday. Money for it last few days would suggest so, no reason not to most of field exposed. Re Cheltenham record re above post somewhere he has run at track twice one novice win and 2nd in Supreme,not sure where he not suited to Cheltenham think he is going to go very close.
By:
roobuck
When: 14 Nov 12 08:50
stevo I posted the comment about Cheltenham though I never went as far to say he wasn't suited byt the course, more to say/imply that a flat course plays to his undoubted strengths more.

If you take his novice win, it was his most unconvincing imo. With regards the Supreme he didn't travel particularly well through the race and he beat Prospect Wells much, much further at Liverpool.

He is still a very young horse and the above may be meaningless and there may be genuine reasons. In any case he be well enough handicapped to overcome any small issue with Cheltenham if there is one.

Its simply for me that this was enough of a reason for not taking a tight price in a handicap.

I chose to go with Cash and Go as mentioned he had good form in Ireland and previous connections, one used to post here, was quite hopeful of a good showing in the Supreme. Change of trainer hardly a negative, and his best form was shown on the best ground he encountered.
By:
stevo1
When: 14 Nov 12 09:13
Agree roobuck Cash and Go one of only a few which maybe progressive,think he may prefer much softer surface though did win on good/yielding but certainly in right stable. Darlan price is about right now imo given field,but at 6/1 was very decent imo. Same as Grand Crus when he was 6s given field now,punters just looking at bigger prices as both Favs now bit short imo, maybe wrongly.
By:
bazzar
When: 14 Nov 12 09:29
Anyone got a reason for PROSPECT WELLS being 32 on here,
good run last week, but is it too soon?
By:
stevo1
When: 14 Nov 12 09:44
I would of thought he is not running, then again Al Ferof was at least 70s for Paddy Power on here few weeks back!
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