NOVICE CHASES - ONE MONTH IN

http://www.britishhorseracing.com Friday 2nd November 2012

Richard Russell, Jump Race Executive for the BHA, blogs about the Novices' Chase trial.

It has now been a month since the trial of the new Novices’ Chase system was introduced on 1st October, so, how have the changes manifested themselves?

Firstly, it’s important to provide some background into why the changes were made and what our objectives were.

Novices’ Chases can be one of the most compelling categories of Jump racing. The anticipation and excitement surrounding any new crop of novices is always one of the features of a new season. However, as much as these events can be one of Jump racing’s greatest strengths, they also frequently prove to be its Achilles’ heel in terms of field sizes and betting turnover.

In season 2007/08, the average field size for a Novices’ Chase was 6.1, for a Beginners’ Chase 7.5, and for a Maiden Chase 9.4.

Last season, 2011/12, those averages had dropped to 5.4, 5.1 and 6.4 respectively. This was not a blip, with the years in between also indicating slight but steady regression.

It follows that as field sizes reduce, betting markets can become less competitive and, accordingly, the return to Racing (and therefore to owners, trainers, jockeys etc), via the Levy, reduces.

It became clear that to safeguard the future of these all-important races, something quite radical had to be done. So two main changes were implemented in order to assist more competitive racing and increase field sizes.

Firstly, as used to be the case, all horses would have to compete in a non-handicap Chase before running in a handicap. Going back, horses were not able to run in a handicap Chase until they had qualified for a rating over fences; and, they had to do it three times. Those restrictions were relaxed many years ago which led to trainers successfully exploiting “Born To Be A Chaser’s” Hurdle rating when he was given the chance to let rip over fences in a handicap Chase. It is quite possible, looking back and with the benefit of hindsight, that once that modus operandi caught on, it really rather ignited the ever-decreasing Novices Chase field sizes we saw until recently. Clearly, those horses that were previously going straight into handicaps being diverted into non-handicaps would increase the pool substantially.

Secondly, there was a proposal that race numbers were also reduced, by up to 20%. I underline ‘up to’ as that headline figure has been trumpeted by some who believe the heart has been ripped out of the programme. In truth, that was a cap, a figure by which reductions could not exceed, rather than a target that must be met.

These changes have been introduced on a trial basis, until the end of the Jump season. After this period we will review the data and consider feedback from the participants to ascertain whether the trial has been a success and should be implemented in future seasons.

In the meantime, what have these changes done for the competiveness and health of Novices’ Steeple Chases? Where better to start than field sizes.

The current average field size for the races is 8.6, which is considerably higher than the average for the same period in 2011 (which was 5.3). Increasing field sizes of these races was a key aim and the early signs are positive in this regard.

What about attractiveness of these races to the punter? Although distinct numbers are hard to gauge at this stage, the initial response seems to have been very positive. Betting data provided to the BHA from Betfair shows that its revenue index for Novices’ Chases is the best it has been for the last five years.

In terms of the shape of the market, there have been just three races that featured an odds-on favourite, with none of the three sent off at prohibitive odds (8/13 being the shortest-priced favourite to date), while the price of the winners has varied from that successful 8/13 favourite through to a 33/1 outsider, with only two odds-on winners.

We are aware of many trainers voicing concerns about the initiative, both before and during the trial. We have taken these concerns on board and have made it a point to analyse closely the areas highlighted.

One concern regarded welfare of horses and jockeys competing in these new-look Novices’ Chases. To look at the figures, from October 2010 until September 2012 the faller rate in Novices Chases was 9.8%. You would expect this to go up as field sizes increase but, pleasingly, it has only risen marginally to 10.6%. It should also be noted that this comes in the early part of the season where, traditionally, faller rates are higher as horses are frequently having their first start of the term and are therefore fresh, headstrong and/or lacking experience over fences. So the doom-laden scenarios, at this early stage, appear to be wide of the mark.

Another concern raised has been that the reduction in the number of races means that trainers have nowhere to run their novices. However, in the final quarter of 2012 – the first part of the core Jump season – Novices’ Chase numbers are down by only 12 on the same period in 2011. And of those, 10 have become Interactive Race Slots. So, if trainers are crying out for more Novices’ Chases, the Racing Department has the tools at its disposal to react to that demand and add the races back in. Interestingly, there has been little calling for Novices’ Chases in any of these race slots, with none programmed so far and potentially only two on the horizon at the time of writing.

There was also talk from some trainers of horses being pulled up after a fence, or being so uncompetitive they couldn’t possibly get round. Thankfully, that also hasn’t transpired, with the pulled-up percentage rising from 11.11% to 14.28%. This is entirely in keeping with the expectations of increased field sizes and increased competitiveness, and represents a rise of 28.5% against a 62% increase in field size for the same period in 2011.

It was also feared that horses would have their marks increased once they ran against, and finished close to, higher-rated rivals. At the last check, Head of Handicapping Phil Smith reported that the ratings of only four placed horses having their compulsory run in a Chase had been put up, while far more had been dropped, some by large amounts. On occasions, some winners had even had their ratings adjusted downward.

So, although we continue to stress that we are in the early stages of this initiative – and that it is very much a trial and being continually monitored – it does seem that on the key performance indicators the new Novices’ Chase system is performing well and safeguarding the future of this most important of race type. Which, if you have the future success and health of Jump racing at heart, must be welcome news. We will continue to monitor the progress of the trial, but also urge anyone who still has concerns with the system to contact us.

Lastly, a quick reminder to all owners and trainers who have sent, or plan to send, their horse down the Novice Chasing route this season. There will be three valuable new Novices’ handicap Chases towards the back end of the 2012/13 season. Any horse will be eligible to enter these races once it has started, as defined in the Rules of Racing, in at least two non-handicap Novices’, Beginners’ or Maiden Chases run in Great Britain this season after September 2012. So best of luck to all who support those valuable new races.