Horse Antepost
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HK International Races - Nominations
HK International Races - Nominations
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Going to be an excellent night. Got my office Christmas Party. Come home then straight into the UFC fights (top quality tonight) Nate vs Henderson, SHogun vs Gustaffson...someone is getting f**ed up in that shogun fight. Then Pacquiao vs Marquez IV and then finally hong kong. Will take a caffiene pill around 3am imo.
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Good luck and have fun tomorrow HKAccie.
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Many thanks ELG - Monday off work as once we get back from Sha Tin we have the City v Utd game on in the pub at 9.30pm, Monday is always a struggle!!
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At the moment I'm looking at the following so everyone can ignore them!!
Vase - Meandre and Dancing Rain Sprint - Lucky Nine and Lord Kanaloa Mile - Glorious Days and Xtension or Packing Whizz (may just do tierce and perm quinella), it's a hard one to pick and won't be seeing too much of my money Cup - Carlton House and California Memory. Good luck to all. |
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They really are dropping like flies at Sha Tin, it's not just the horses either, Christophe Lemaire is struggling to be fit with a bout of influenza.
The races look wide open to me now and it's been tough trying to work it out with the way the draw has gone. I was all set to play big on Lucky Nine but horses drawn in double figures have a wretched record in the Sprint and at shortish odds I don't think I'm going to risk it now. This fella is one of my favourite horses and I'm gutted how it's worked out again, the draw did him in Dubai as well! The heart could still rule the head but it all depends on how big a price I can get. The draw wasn't kind to Giofra either and with Cirrus coming out her price with UK bookies has shortened a fair amount. I'm going to wait till the morning before I back her, it's sounds like the Hong Kong PMU could be the way to go with her! I backed Zaidan before the draw and he also got screwed (12), so I'm not that confident now. I don't think I've ever changed my mind so much but I've backed a couple in each race apart from the Sprint. Vase: Red Cadeaux EW and Dandino EW Sprint: Lucky Nine (maybe) Mile: Master of Hounds EW and Grand Prix Boss EW Cup: Zaidan EW and Giofra (maybe) Good luck, I think we are all going to need it tomorrow… or today if you're in Hong Kong!  |
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I've changed my mind again.....it's just so hard, the more you look at it the more difficult they get! I like Grand Prix Boss ew Mr D and he looks good on his work this week. Saonois is a good price too in the cup. If you listen to Fownes he is very very bullish about Lucky Nine, reckons he's not had him in better shape.
Final selections......until tomorrow after a few beers Meandre & Dunaden Lucky Nine and Lord K Mile - really can't decide Cup - Carlton House and Saonios The cup is going to be a no-pace race so it's going to take some luck winning it. |
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John Moore (trainer) did say he would use his other two horses in the Cup to make sure the pace of the race suited his two main hopes Irian and Zaidan!! It sounded like he wanted a true run race to me.
I hope the Cup is a no-pace race HK because the more I watch Zaidan the more I think he doesn't quite get the 1m 2f trip!  If there is no pace it could play into the hands of the speedier horses who have got form at a mile rather than the ones who are out-and-out 1m 2f horses. Giofra looks the one for me now!!! Grand Prix Boss was a shade unlucky in the Championship Mile race at Kyoto and I think he could turn it around with Sadamu Patek. I agree HK, his work did look good and that's what made my mind up. |
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I think Zaidan is best at 1800m but he did well in the truly run trial the other week, getting 5lb from CM. Wonder if this could be Irian's year or if the G2 trial race was his target and he was fully wound up for it?
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John Moore seemed more confident about Irian's chances and Gerald Mosse was very confident of a good run as well. GM said he had come on well from his last run and gave him better feel during his track work. There is till time for us to change our minds!!
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I did say that this year I wasn't going to change my mind......
oh well......I'll sleep on it!! |
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I'm having my final mind change right now...! Will report back
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Beer will make everything clearer tomorrow - I have another 6 races to try to solve too!!
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Vase - Dunaden. I have some cover on Dancing Rain but the more I look at her form the weaker I think it is. He's a proven globetrotter and should be recovered from melbourne. Reportedly in good shape. The one I fear most is Meandre.
Sprint - Sea Siren. I was very sweet on Current Chan last year, but she didn't get the best draw and the race was a bit of a non-event for her. This time round it sounds like Lord Kanaloa has the edge on her for the Japanese, so I've got a side bet on him. Time After Time looks good, but the odds are pretty horffic for an animal that's not competed much at the highest level. He's lightly raced so could be anything. Lucky 9 wouldve been my pick if it werent for the draw. As it stands I'll go with the Aussie - well rated, and some fair G1 form under her belt. Drawn ok, just hope she's settled into Honkers ok. Mile - Glorious Days. Going with the form here. Quite like the look of Packing Whiz, but think Siyouma is the biggest danger. Cup - Saonois. Really fancy him, although guessing he could be unfashionable in HK and a big price there?! I have cover on California Memory, and think Carlton House and Giofra should also be in the mix. So that's my big 4fold. Other bold ones have some money on too. Good luck chaps! |
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This Hong Kong meeting has been mind bending stuff so far. I think it's going to be very competitive and if I'm honest, I'm not that confident with my selections.
All the best!  |
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Fato - I think we agree on most there.....I'm leaning towards getting the ball rolling on Dunaden. Though we've got an odds on top weight in race 1 that's won its first 2 runs, may take it on as the others are very long prices! Wonder if we will see the HKD 1 billion mark reached on total bet for the day?
All the best with all your bets - will be back uk afternoon time with some very drunken ramblings and after timing no doubt! |
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vase LIBERATOR
mile master of hounds cup Autumn Gold to beat carlton house...or vice versa had me eye on these 2 runners in the cup for the last fortnight, hopefully get some returns. gl all |
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Offshore - you should get a good showing from Liberator as he's got some good form over 2400m here and would be my best local horse for the race, just think the o/seas runners may just be too good for him. He'll be in my quinella perm though.
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Best out of 2 isn't hard though!!
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The Dragon is clear to run
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Having a punt on:
Dancing Rain Sea Siren Giofra Grand Prix Boss Worrying no home runners but not convinced. Seem to take it in turn in beating each other. GL! |
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good stuff this morning, woke up to 2/3 winner so far, hoping for giofra for the big payday!
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wd Chad - you weren't afraid to hit the bigger priced horses either! I've never rated Red Cadeaux as top class, but he proved me wrong - that was a good win. Very happy for Ed Dunlop too.
My Lord Kanaloa bets were all in accas which fell through so I was lucky to get out of jail with California Memory. No retirement unfortunately :) Really disappointed about Glorious Days - that'd have brought home a big win as he was in a Lord Kanaloa bet, along with some nags from yesterday. I completely put a line through The Ambituous Dragon which was naive. That lameness situation happened a couple of years back with Vison D'Etat didn't it? Who then went on to win? They were very good races today - would like to see some of the Japanese sprinters come and race at Ascot. The Eurpoean horses were generally poor - aside from Red Cadeaux. I just don't think arriving through quarantine 6 days before the race gives them much chance to be at their peak. HKAccie - what were the prices on the HK tote like? Seemed like California Memory was smashed into 5/4? And Ambitious Dragon too I imagine? Zaidan also very low odds. Must be some huge value if you can bet on UK bookies too. |
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*Ambitious Dragon, not "The" Ambitious Dragon!!
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Well done if you came out with a profit, it was tough days racing at Sha Tin.
It started well with Red Cadaeux winning but that was as good as it got for me with everything else going down the gurgler. Red Cadaeux and Jaguar Mail franked the Japan Cup form pretty well, the first three in the JC are World Class and will take all the beating next year IMO!! I left Lucky Nine alone in the end and I'm glad I did now because he was hung out to dry from his wide draw, Lord Kanaloa was impressive and looks like he is improving with every race. Hopefully we might see him rock up at Meydan! The Mile was a horse race disaster with the two I backed and I was bitterly disappointed with Grand Prix Boss, very odd performance and Master Of Hounds wasn't much better either. I now know for definite he isn't a G1 horse and need to stop my obssesion with Kingmambo's. Ambitious Dragon was at his imperious best and is a tough nut to crack at Sha Tin. California Memory was another one who showed his class at Sha Tin again, travelled like a dream and finished it off with ease. Zaidan ran too free in the early stages and was never likely to get involved, the draw didn't help matters either but his young Jock did his best to get a good early position but I think that move lit him up and there was nothing left in the straight. Giofra ran an eye catching race from the back but the bird had already flown. Happy in the end to have come out of it with a small profit but nothing to write home about. Once again well done to everyone who found some winners. |
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A very hurtful day on the pocket, but it was a cracking day. CM was hammered in but AD drifted to 5.1 after Zaidan was smashed. They were both very impressive. I'm in a world of pain today after getting home at 4am, I'm in the dog house for sure!!
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