Prix Du Cadran 10-Year-Trends

Prix Du Cadran takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 7th October on the supporting card to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Run over 2M 4F it is one of the major races on the calendar for the top class European stayers. Trends for the past 10 runnings below. (trends for all group races run at Longchamp this weekend up at http://tinyurl.com/9zeg8s8):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 3-7-29
5yo: 3-3-26
6yo: 2-3-13
7yo: 1-2-17
8yo+: 1-4-13
4 & 5yos (6-10-55) have a slightly better record than horses aged 6+ (4-9-43) but no strong trends on the ages of winners.

Gender
Fillies/mares (0-2-12) have gained 2 places from 12 runners since 2002, though both female runners to go off shorter than 10/1 were placed. The last female winner of the Cadran was Molesnes in 1994.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ (2 exceptions posted an RPR of 105-6)
10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in the last 50 days
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M+ (1 exception was 2nd on only start over 2M & other had won over 1M 6F and was having first try over 2M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
Only 2 of 10 winners had previously won a group 1
7 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in a group 1 (3 others having first run in group 1)
6 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (3 of 4 exceptions were having first course start, other was 2nd on only run here)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Kasbah Bliss): 31466 (1-1-5)
Prix Gladiateur winner: 8311324213 (3-4-10)
Prix Gladiateur runner-up (Miss Lago): 012210 (2-2-6)
Highest placed finisher from previous year's Cesarewitch: 115 (2-0-3)
Prix Du Carrousel winner (Lone Ranger): 22178 (1-2-5)
Sagaro Stakes winner (Colour Vision): 12 (1-1-2)
Ascot Gold Cup winner (Colour Vision): 6353 (0-1-4)
Grand Handicap de la Manche winner (Goldtara): 045 (0-0-3)
Goodwood Cup winner (Saddler's Rock): 865 (0-0-3)
6 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Prix Gladieteur last time, finishing 211321
4 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Prix Kergolay, finishing 2242
3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in the Prix de Barbeville, finishing 123
3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in the Prix Maurice De Nieuil, finishing 270
2 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, finishing 95
4 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 5253
2 of 2 British-trained winners ran in the Goodwood Cup, finishing 24
2 of 2 British-trained winners ran in the Lonsdale Cup, finishing 51
2 of 2 British-trained winners ran in previous year's Cesarewitch, finishing 31

Trainers
French-trained runners: 6-15-66
British-trained runners: 2-2-18
Irish-trained runners: 1-1-7
Spanish-trained: 1-0-2
German-trained runners: 0-1-4
Elie Lellouche (2-2-8) has saddled 2 winners and 2 seconds from 8 runners.
Francois Doumen (1-2-7) saddled Kasbah Bliss to win it last year and place in the race twice previously.
John Oxx (1-0-1) trained Alandi to win in 2009 while Alain Lyon (1-0-2) tasted success with Gentoo in 2010.
Alain Royer-Dupre (0-2-5) saddled a couple of placed finishers from his 5 runners since 2002.

Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The last 10 winners all went off 10/1 or shorter.
Favourites (4-3-12) have won 4 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 0.51.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Finished in the first 3 last time in past 50 days
•    Posted an RPR of 110+ last time
•    Has run at least 4 times in 2012
•    Won a listed or a group race
•    Won over 2M+
•    Course winner (or having first run at Longchamp)
•    First 5 in the Ascot Gold Cup, Prix De Barbeville or Kergolay
•    French trained that finished in first 3 in the Prix Gladiateur last time
•    British-trained that finished in first 5 in Goodwood Cup and/or 2011 Cesarewitch
•    Trained by Elie Lellouche
•    From first 4 in the betting (no bigger than 10/1)