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cryoftruth
01 Oct 12 13:03
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Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 11,180 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
Reminds me very much of Sindaar:
stoutly bred, by Raven's Pass out of a mare with tons of stamina who has already produced a half sibling that stayed 11 furlongs by sprinter Oasis Dream.
He won pretty easily on Saturday, he is like a number of Derby winners in that he is lazy, never doing more than necessary.

Stan James were 33/1 but of course that firm would only lay a bet of 2.75p, their "limit".

However, look at the prices of maiden winners Mars and Telescope and you can see 25/1 about a group 2 winner with tons of scope and an excellent attitude alas almost being good value.

If MJ gets him to Epsom with Fallon up he will be a force to be reckoned with.
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Report mightymoyes October 1, 2012 5:48 PM BST
likely to transfer to goldolphin?
Report cryoftruth October 1, 2012 7:55 PM BST
Hope not but therein lies the danger.

I see Bodog, who will take a bet go 33/1 and this is worth taking imo.

He looks a good prospect; better than that he looks very good value indeed. The reason I say that is when a 2yo wins a maiden well, running a rating of 90+ he is never ever quoted at more than 33/1. Now Steeler has won a group 2 comfortably, has the scope for considerable improvement and recorded a rating of about 115.

Definite value there for Epsom, especially as he is certain to improve especially when he steps up to 12 furlongs at the start of june.
Report Howellsy October 1, 2012 9:21 PM BST
Son of Raven's Pass certain to improve for 12 furlongs?! How many Derby winners get outpaced over 7f at two, COT? I agree that he's tough and consistent. He may even be theoretical value, but he's not practical value. He won't win the Derby! There aren't many obvious candidates at the moment, I concede, but the Derby has often enough gone to a second time out maiden winner at 2 who enters the winter unexposed and unknown. At least one of those will be improving past Steeler, not to mention Ballydoyle's best.
Report unclepuncle October 1, 2012 9:44 PM BST
Have to agree with Howellsy. He's a nice horse certainly, and very tough, and although he is improving gradually, and might even win the Racing Post Trophy if it's a weak race, he just looks too exposed and surely lacks the outright class that marks out most Derby winners.

I agree that on paper he seems value at 33/1 compared to the 10/1-16/1 on maiden winners like Mars and Telescope but that's more a case of those type of horse being far too short rather than Steeler @ 33/1 being overpriced.
Report cryoftruth October 2, 2012 6:20 AM BST
we will see gentlemen, and I dare say you may be right; after all even if I am right and Steeler is say a 20/1 shot, he would still only win a Derby every 20 years.

I don't accept the stuff about exposed and breeding myself, but its a matter of opinions. If ever Betfair consent to include him in the ante post Derby market maybe we can share our differences with you laying him at 55?

In respect to breeding, Ravens Pass stayed 10 furlongs well; he will be a significantly greater influence for stamina than oasis Dram, who sires an 11 furlong winner out of the same mare. Indeed the dam's side of Steeler's pedigree is choc full of stamina, including Darshaan and Law Society. He looks sure ti improve over his proper trip and its no coincidence at all that he ran his best ever race when he finally got a mile to race over at 2.

The "exposed" stuff is fine. I recall Finsceal Beo being exposed as ordinary prior to the Prix Marcel Boussac, and she went on to win 2 classics and be placed in a  third. I seem to recall Tap On Wood winning a classic after he was well exposed as below top class at 2.

Steeler has been growing all season and all his family look to have improved throughout their 3yo campaign, so you won't see the real Steeler till next year - and he's already won a  group 2 pretty easily (despite being "exposed" and "outpaced" in the Acomb.
Report Sandown October 2, 2012 10:01 AM BST
At 33/1 it's a good shout, cryoftruth.
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