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shockster
18 Sep 12 12:17
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Date Joined: 26 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 2,625 | Blogger: shockster's blog
Cheltenham Media release.

PADDY POWER OPEN BETTING ON HIGHLIGHT OF THE OPEN
Trainer Keiran Burke is hoping that stable star Hunt Ball can continue his incredible
rise in the £150,000 Paddy Power Gold Cup, the feature race of Cheltenham’s Open
meeting on Saturday, November 17.
Race sponsors Paddy Power have opened their book on the extended two and a halfmile handicap chase and installed Hunt Ball as their 8/1 joint-favourite alongside Grade
One Racing Post Arkle Chase runner-up Cue Card.
Hunt Ball proved himself to be one of the stories of last season with seven wins that
culminated with a stunning eight-length victory at The Festival in the Listed Pulteney
Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase, run over the same course and distance
as the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
The seven-year-old started his novice campaign racing off a mark of 69 and ended the
season with a fine third in the Grade One Betfred Bowl at Aintree in April - a
performance that elevated his official rating to 157.
Burke revealed today: “I am very happy with Hunt Ball. He has come back from the
summer bigger and stronger and he looks better than ever.
“I hope there is plenty more to come from him. He has obviously got to improve a fair
bit to compete with the big boys, but in his last run at Aintree he was still showing
improvement even after the long hard season he had.
“He ran a cracker at Aintree and I think if that had been his fourth or fifth race of the
year, he would have probably gone and won as he came there very strongly but was
just feeling the effects of a long season towards the end of the race.“I’m pretty sure there is more improvement to come and he will start this season in the
Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. I think he probably wants to go further than
that, but the Paddy Power Gold Cup will suit him and then after that we will look at all
the big races.
“He will go for the King George at Kempton and then the owner has got a lot of money
on him for the Gold Cup, so he will probably go there or the Ryanair, but I’m not sure
what he will do in between.
“I think he can win the Paddy Power Gold Cup off his mark, but he is not the easiest
horse to get fit as he is big horse. He will take a fair bit of work and we will give him a
few racecourse gallops beforehand and try and get him as fit as we can.”
Champion Court (10/1) also boasts some excellent form at Cheltenham, having
captured a Grade Two novices’ chase on New Year’s Day and finished second in the
Grade Two Jewson Novices’ Chase at The Festival, but the seven-year-old may miss
the race to concentrate on a King George challenge.
His trainer Martin Keighley reported: “Champion Court has done really well over the
summer and we are slowly stepping his work up now. I think he has improved over the
summer and he had the longest break of any horse in the yard because he wasn’t right
when he ran at Aintree.
“I think he had gone over the top a bit and when he got back we did some tests and he
wasn’t quite right, so he did amazingly well to finish second.
“Prior to that, his run at the Festival in the Jewson was brilliant when he bumped into
a superstar (Sir Des Champs) who is now favourite for the Gold Cup.
“There is a graduation chase at Kempton on November 5 and I think Champion Court
will go there for his first run.
“It would be a big ask for him in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, so I think he will go to
Kempton and then one more race in between before a crack at the King George. I think
the three miles at Kempton will suit him and he tends to jump a little bit right so you’d
think going round there will suit him better.
“He is probably a notch off top-class but he is entitled to improve and take on the best
this season. His best form is over two miles, five furlongs so he will probably go for the
Ryanair after the King George. However, if he stays really well you never know, he
could be a Gold Cup horse.”
Invictus (10/1) also enjoyed a productive first season over fences that culminated with
victory in the Grade Two Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot.
Betfred Cheltenham Cup runner-up The Giant Bolster (12/1) may bid to avenge his
early departure in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last year, while Grade Two scorer
Silviniaco Conti, last year’s fourth Aerial and Grade One Manifesto Novices’ Chase
victor Menorah are also quoted at 12/1. Entries for the Paddy Power Gold Cup close on Tuesday, October 30, and are
announced the next day. The weights are revealed on Wednesday, November 7.
The Open meeting runs from Friday, November 16, to Sunday, November 18. Tickets
are available online at www.cheltenham.co.uk or via the box office on 0844 579 3003.
Paddy Power Gold Cup - Paddy Power bet:
8/1 Hunt Ball, Cue Card, 10/1 Champion Court, Invictus 12/1 The Giant Bolster, Aerial,
Silviniaco Conti, Menorah, 14/1 For Non Stop, Cristal Bonus, Michel Le Bon, 16/1
Poquelin, 20/1 Quantitativeeasing, Divers, Micheal Flips, Solix, Zaynar, 25/1 Dave’s
Dream, Loosen My Load, 33/1 Finger On the Pulse
Each way 1/4 odds, 1,2,3 & 4
Pause Switch to Standard View Paddy Power Gold Cup - Nov 17th...
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Report GoldCupWinner November 14, 2012 11:34 PM GMT
I thin Grand Crus will handle it well enough but not be at his best on it. Not too many of the horses have form on soft ground. I would be interested in Quanti if it does come up soft. This distance on soft ground could e perfect for him.
Report judorick November 14, 2012 11:47 PM GMT
don't think it will be deep winter soft ground, the worst case would be the rain comes friday and then it dries up into a glue pot saturday, but no matter what there will be no excuses for the fav on the going imo

been trying to visualise how the race will pan out and a whole bunch of scenarios come to mind, be fascinating to see what actually happens

ahh don't you just love national hunt racing? Grin
Report ReaseHeath November 15, 2012 12:01 AM GMT
only just started looking at this and a bit disappointed - only potentially progressive ones I can see to take on the favourite with are Walkon and Al Ferof.

All the prices look about right to me.....how depressing!

Should be a great race though, usually is!
Report judorick November 15, 2012 12:07 AM GMT
yup

when the fav gags up we can all think 'yes, that's what we expected'
Report harry callaghan November 15, 2012 12:22 AM GMT
it is supposed to be raining all day...will this good thing want extremes of going? could be soft...i have my doubts myself

would you take 2-1 the good thing then we askGrin
Report Swagger November 15, 2012 12:27 AM GMT
The track hasn't seen significant rain for a long period, there's some rain forecast Friday going into Saturday but some forecasts indicate that it's not a load and given how well the track drains, I think it will still ride bordering good ground provided it hasn't been watered too much this week. It absolutely hacked it down the night before last years race yet the time of the race was still around good - good to soft but it was a bit tacky as Judge said it might get a bit like that in places on saturday. I wouldn't be assuming it's going to be soft ground, in fact I would be surprised if it's not riding near good on the day - If Grands Crus gets beat it won't be because of the groundm they will have to think up another excuse!
Report harry callaghan November 15, 2012 12:31 AM GMT
lol swagger

one thing i will say it was good to firm on the friday last year and it has been very damp and wet for a while...i would say it won't take much to change the going especially if its persistent on saturday which forecasts say it will be...
Report harry callaghan November 15, 2012 12:33 AM GMT
apologies it was the october meeting it was firm
Report Swagger November 15, 2012 12:36 AM GMT
The forecasts I have looked at indicate between 5-6 mm of rain friday going into saturday which I don't think would change the ground too much, if anything it will help the horses to freshen up the ground a bit. I just checked and I read that they reported 6 mm of rain on the friday last year but it seemed a lot more at the time - I remember Henderson banging on about how much it had rained, so going on that basis if you have backed the fav then you won't lose any sleep.
Report Swagger November 15, 2012 12:42 AM GMT
The forecast i look at which has been pretty reliable over the years says rain of about 4-6 mm on and off friday night going into saturday until noon then dry and sunny. So I can't see it being too testing - the forecast could change one way or the other as well. I haven't lumped on the fav but just stating that I personally don't think the ground would bother him whatever it is on the day. In my opinion his best performance in his career was in the Cleeve Hurdle which was run with cut in the ground, pretty testing if i recall correctly.
Report harry callaghan November 15, 2012 12:42 AM GMT
well maybe your right swagger...sleep dependance will depend on how much you've got on though...sweet dreams
Report Swagger November 15, 2012 12:48 AM GMT
I haven't lumped on the fav Harry, i'm hoping for decent ground for Divers who I think has an exceptional each way chance in this field. I'm not so much worried about a bit of rain but if the track has been watered this week as I went to the meeting when Exotic Dancer won the paddy power and the whole meeting was a wash out as it was heavily watered during the week and rained during the meeting which turned the ground chewy and basically some of the races into a lottery
Report judorick November 15, 2012 1:16 AM GMT
hello swagger mate!!

I am toying with doing a Twitter account under the old judge name for the jumps season as I am taking it seriously and doing lots of laying and stuff. Will let you know - will be to help keep me on my toes

you are right about the watering too - remember when Captain Cee Bee won the Supreme? Rained on watered going then stopped, when they ran the WH chase they were 50 secs slower than standard
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 15, 2012 7:14 AM GMT
GRAND CRUS very short given the nature of this race. Ok should be a mile ahead of these on level weights but this is a notoriously hard race to win even given for the small field this time around and i think could well be 3/1 - 10/3 come off time! Obviously that all depends on how strongly the pipes believe in his chance.

Forpaddy i like him especially at 33/1! I like walkon too and hunt ball and will likely be playing them all e/way! If GC is to be a 3/1sp sort, he will likely touch 4s at some point with someone, if he does, i will play but obv not before ive played the others first!
Report harry callaghan November 15, 2012 7:29 AM GMT
swagger was just on the wind up there pal before i went to sleep...Mischief
Report Glenn11 November 15, 2012 10:58 AM GMT
kingsmere is in, all aboard ;)

least i havent lost my antepost money.
Report JOCI Club November 15, 2012 11:07 AM GMT
Looks like Wishfull Thinking and Jamsie Hall the only defections.
Report JOCI Club November 15, 2012 11:26 AM GMT
Have finished my analysis as follows.

Looked at the folowing 13 key trends and weighted them based on how 'important' each one was i.e. if 10/10 past winners had achieved this trend then it would get more weighting than a trend that pointed to say 7 of the last 10 winners. The trends were:

1 achieved a course win
2 age
Report JOCI Club November 15, 2012 11:27 AM GMT
Ah...the curse of the 'less than' sign strikes again.....

Got to bl00dy type it up again now....
Report BJG November 15, 2012 11:33 AM GMT
NO.    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1     5U26-4    Poquelin14      9    11-12    Paul Nicholls73    Harry Derham7     163    157    174
2     11343-    Al Ferof219      7    11-8    Paul Nicholls73    R Walsh     159    138    169
3     85110-    Calgary Bay217      9    11-7    Mick Channon50    Dominic Elsworth     158    149    168
4     11113-    Hunt Ball219      7    11-6    Keiran Burke    Nick Scholfield     157    145    173
5     61114-    Grands Crus248 t      7    11-6    David Pipe46    Tom Scudamore     157    167    176
6     02175-    Quantitativeeasing203      7    11-4    Nicky Henderson45     155    162    167
7     41412-    Aerial213      6    11-4    Paul Nicholls73    Daryl Jacob     155    149    169
8     1F32P-    Tanks For That219      9    11-4    Nicky Henderson45     155    152    168
9     3464-2    Forpadydeplasterer19F      10    10-13    Thomas Cooper    Paddy Brennan     150    160    175
10     3/17-1    Nadiya De La Vega28      6    10-8    Nicky Henderson45     145    164    170
11     7124-5    Micheal Flips14      8    10-8    Andy Turnell100    Brian Hughes     145    165    171
12     1345P-    Walkon210      7    10-6    Alan King52    Robert Thornton     143    151    176
13     S41141    The Disengager49      8    10-4    Philip Hobbs56    Richard Johnson     141    148    169
14     U047-0    Divers28      8    10-1    Ferdy Murphy53    Timmy Murphy     138    162    172
15     1110-2    Triolo D´Alene190      5    10-1    Nicky Henderson45    Barry Geraghty     138    148    166
16     F-211F    Kingsmere29      7    10-0    Henry Daly    Sam Twiston-Davies     137    117    171
17     36-120    Casey Top59 t      9    10-0    Leonard Whitmore100    Mark Enright5     136    160    166
18     7-3633    Finger Onthe Pulse28 t      11    10-0    Jonjo O´Neill38    Maurice Linehan7     136    164    170
19     9-923    Questions Answered34      7    10-0    E McNamara100    Aidan Coleman     130    160    166
20     P0F-39    Gilbarry28      7    10-0    Jonjo O´Neill38    Richie McLernon     127    137    164
Report JOCI Club November 15, 2012 11:33 AM GMT
Have finished my analysis as follows.

Looked at the folowing 13 key trends and weighted them based on how 'important' each one was i.e. if 10/10 past winners had achieved this trend then it would get more weighting than a trend that pointed to say 7 of the last 10 winners. The trends were:

1 achieved a course win
2 age less than 10
3 age 6-7
4 carrying 10'13"+
5 official rating 146+
6 1st or 2nd run of season
7 distance win between 2m4f and 2m 6f
8 won calss 2 chase or better
9 won listed / graded chase
10 fewer than 10 career chase starts (not inc PTP)
11 fewer than 6 handicap chase starts
12 ran in a chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival
13 2nd or 3rd season chasers

Based on the above trends here is my final ranking of the 20 declared horses (subject to any errors I might have made):

Al Ferof 100%
Grands Crus 100%
Quantitativeeasing 100%
Hunt Ball 83%
Aerial 79%
Nadiya De La Vega 76%
Walkon 74%
Micheal Flips 69%
Gilbarry 65%
Divers 64%
Tanks For That 62%
Poquelin 60%
Calgary Bay 60%
Kingsmere 60%
Forpadydeplasterer 58%
Questions Answered 51%
Casey Top 44%
Triolo D´Alene 42%
Finger On The Pulse 37%
The Disengager 36%

Good luck finding the winner!
Report judorick November 15, 2012 11:56 AM GMT
are you counting Al Ferofs' win over hurdles at 2 miles 4 furlongs?

I would only count chase wins myself mate
Report buddeliea November 15, 2012 12:23 PM GMT
thats cos you aint happy with the slow horse on 100% judoLaugh

Seriously though,hes a course winner over fences and he stays,so dont really matter i would think.
Report judorick November 15, 2012 12:29 PM GMT
no it's a matter of method for me as I use trends a lot myself

if a trend says 'needs to be a distance winner' then for me it has to be in the same discipline i.e over fences

it's ok making exceptions but in the long run if you are looking to get an edge you need to be consistent in the method
Report buddeliea November 15, 2012 12:35 PM GMT
fair enough,thats your choice.

Lets hope whatever method we use,we manage to get the winner.
Report liam the lips November 15, 2012 12:43 PM GMT
Pleased to see QA declared, Aidan Coleman a bonus  - 50s an insult to a horse whose been competitive in the 2 best hcaps in Ireland this Autumn.
Report strontium November 15, 2012 1:28 PM GMT
Anyone know how the Henderson runners are jocked up yet?
Report judorick November 15, 2012 1:31 PM GMT
no stront, am also waiting

but I predict Barry on QE (well I hope)
Report BJG November 15, 2012 1:32 PM GMT
Barry G rides Triolo D Alene

Other 2 not confirmed yet
Report BJG November 15, 2012 1:32 PM GMT
NO.    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1     5U26-4    Poquelin14      9    11-12    Paul Nicholls73    Harry Derham7     163    157    174
2     11343-    Al Ferof219      7    11-8    Paul Nicholls73    R Walsh     159    138    169
3     85110-    Calgary Bay217      9    11-7    Mick Channon50    Dominic Elsworth     158    149    168
4     11113-    Hunt Ball219      7    11-6    Keiran Burke    Nick Scholfield     157    145    173
5     61114-    Grands Crus248 t      7    11-6    David Pipe46    Tom Scudamore     157    167    176
6     02175-    Quantitativeeasing203      7    11-4    Nicky Henderson45     155    162    167
7     41412-    Aerial213      6    11-4    Paul Nicholls73    Daryl Jacob     155    149    169
8     1F32P-    Tanks For That219      9    11-4    Nicky Henderson45     155    152    168
9     3464-2    Forpadydeplasterer19F      10    10-13    Thomas Cooper    Paddy Brennan     150    160    175
10     3/17-1    Nadiya De La Vega28      6    10-8    Nicky Henderson45     145    164    170
11     7124-5    Micheal Flips14      8    10-8    Andy Turnell100    Brian Hughes     145    165    171
12     1345P-    Walkon210      7    10-6    Alan King52    Robert Thornton     143    151    176
13     S41141    The Disengager49      8    10-4    Philip Hobbs56    Richard Johnson     141    148    169
14     U047-0    Divers28      8    10-1    Ferdy Murphy53    Timmy Murphy     138    162    172
15     1110-2    Triolo D´Alene190      5    10-1    Nicky Henderson45    Barry Geraghty     138    148    166
16     F-211F    Kingsmere29      7    10-0    Henry Daly    Sam Twiston-Davies     137    117    171
17     36-120    Casey Top59 t      9    10-0    Leonard Whitmore100    Mark Enright5     136    160    166
18     7-3633    Finger Onthe Pulse28 t      11    10-0    Jonjo O´Neill38    Maurice Linehan7     136    164    170
19     9-923    Questions Answered34      7    10-0    E McNamara100    Aidan Coleman     130    160    166
20     P0F-39    Gilbarry28      7    10-0    Jonjo O´Neill38    Richie McLernon     127    137    164
Report strontium November 15, 2012 1:37 PM GMT
3 more? NDLV, QE and TFT.

I thought the deadline for jockey declarations was noon on declaration day - obviously not. Confused
Report unclepuncle November 15, 2012 3:03 PM GMT
Presumably they are waiting as long as possible to see what the weather does before McCoy commits to either QE or NDLV.

I've backed QE so as long as there is a decent replacement I'd be happy if McCoy gets on NDLV as for me QE doesn't jump as well with McCoy on his back. Gutted BG isn't riding him tbh as I don't fancy his mount at all.
Report judorick November 15, 2012 3:13 PM GMT
uncle

agree 100% with what you say
Report sc1883 November 15, 2012 3:24 PM GMT
BG is jocked up on Triolo D'Alene but at 10st 1lb this is surely an error? I was under the impression BG struggled to get below 10-5 or there abouts? either he will switch to another of Hendo's or he will make the horse carry overweight which wont please many of its backers! surely Tinkler or McGrath will ride IMO
Report Slabster November 15, 2012 4:01 PM GMT
Barry gerathy lowest riding weight in past 12 months was 10-02....if he's gonna make the weight he must really fancy it!
Report GoldCupWinner November 15, 2012 4:31 PM GMT
That is interesting because it's form looks awful in the context of this race. Can only think it must have improved a ton. Unless Mcmanus doesn't want him to ride for whatever reason.
Report BJG November 15, 2012 4:47 PM GMT
Had a breathin op durin the summer and is expected to improve massively for it ^ Triolo
Report GoldCupWinner November 15, 2012 4:56 PM GMT
Ah thank you. Not sure if that makes it worth backing or not.
Report unclepuncle November 15, 2012 9:31 PM GMT
Well the market indicates that the two McManus / Henderson horses have no chance (QE out to 40 and NDLV 22) and so presumably, with BG onboard doing his lightest weight for years, Triolo is the main contender from that yard.
Really don't fancy at all on the formbook (would have had it at about 40/1 on my tissue) so the breathing OP must have worked miracles?
Report judorick November 15, 2012 9:34 PM GMT
can't see it either uncle
Report Navel-Gazer November 15, 2012 11:43 PM GMT
I haven't read the entire thread so I don't know if anyone else has thrown a rag into the mix called Tanks For That.
I'm feeling very hopeful this chappie can run a really big race and so far I've managed to get a paltry £4 on him at 130 which I consider to be HUGE!

I know he's a 33/1 poke but when I saw three figures available on here a few days ago, I just assumed he wasn't running because in these sort of markets, you might get double what the bookies are offering, but rarely SIX times the price!

Alas, I didn't avail myself to the 200+ on here yesterday, so at the prices available now, I can't complain - it's still mighty generous and as FOURTH string for connections, he might lengthen again.

He is obviously up against it in having to contend with Grands Crus for starters and admittedly, he looks a tad high in the weights, he's FOURTH string from his own stable, so hopefully the capable Jeremiah McGrath might get the mount and take a few pounds off (is he still claiming five pounds?) his jumping mightn't always be fantastic but on the plus side, he has run well fresh in the past, Cheltenham's demands seem to suit him very well, I have suspected for a while that he NEEDS 20F, and the ground will be in his favour.

I'll let you guys into a secret...he's a two-pointer for me in kicking off the new NH competition, and I'm expecting to pick up some points for a healthy kick-start Wink

Don't say you weren't warned Wink

The other rag that interests me who could be on the premises is Aerial (only 40's right now) but like TFT, he looks a few pounds too high, but I suspect the demands of a race like this could be what makes him excel - weights & ratings aren't the be all & end all, and this fella is still a relative novice with hopefully more to come, though again, his jumping isn't the most fluent.

Am I alone in believing that a (likely) solid pace suits a certain type of performer and they can excel?
I also think that can improve their suspect fencing as they don't have as much time to 'think' approaching an obstacle.
Report harry callaghan November 16, 2012 12:11 AM GMT
have to say navel i have played tanks for that but only in the place market as he has enough weight and not sure he'll get home...but he isn't a forlorn hope thats for sure...the claimer would help
Report Navel-Gazer November 16, 2012 12:23 AM GMT
HC - at three figure odds he's well worth a play...there is ONE really good horse to overcome (at the weights in Grands Crus) but Al Ferof is also progressive - if they're not 100% so early in the season (which isn't assured) then that opens the door to the rest of them.

AND as we have both alluded to...a handy 5lb off from Jeremiah McGrath would be a big bonus - FWIW...I think he'll relish the trip and I've been waiting to see him step up.

I just have an inkling that a relatively exposed performer like this will be tuned for this, and he's capable of a shock if the big-guns don't perform.
He looks the type to me that'll run his race & be suited to the demands of a strongly run affair over this C&D, and that could be enough to put him bang on the premises.

I'm gonna get as much as I can on him at three figure odds, and I think he's capable of hitting single figures in running at the very least, as I don't think there's much to fear in the race besides the obvious, as most of the field look high enough in the handicap.
Report harry callaghan November 16, 2012 12:32 AM GMT
david bass rides and doesn't claim shame...could still run well...a word of warning this horse wouldn't want extremes so if the ground went soft i'd be wary
Report Navel-Gazer November 16, 2012 12:49 AM GMT
I didn't know Bass was gonna be aboard (not exactly a huge minus) but I was hoping a few pounds off his back could've made him more competitive.
Nevertheless...the rest don't worry me much, just Grands Crus & Al Ferof.

AND yes...I would have been concerned with extremes of going, and I was hoping for a good or good/soft surface, which is looking likely.

Do you ever get a sneaky feeling a horse at a huge price has everything in its favour and you fancy it to run well?
The weight is off putting as are the two dangers but everything else seems cherry ripe - I've had the odd huge winner like this before, and I'm very optimistic Wink

Maybe your play in the place market is the best advice, but I missed the 12.5 earlier this evening (I'd have settled for that but I'm greedy) and I've thrown a couple of tenners at 16 & 19.5 just in case anyone obliges Wink
Report Navel-Gazer November 16, 2012 1:42 AM GMT
It has to be remembered that SOMEHOW, a knocking bet in Long Run conspired to lose this two years ago with absolutely NO excuses (as have many well-weighted novices in the past - Wayward Lad if memory servesConfused)

I can't be arsed trawling back through the RP site but some very attractively weighted, second season performers like Grands Crus & Al Ferof have been filleted in races like this only to bounce back, and they've had lower marks than that pair - they're not nailed on, however promising they look.
Report aft November 16, 2012 5:48 AM GMT
Everyone is ignoring the winner - POQUELIN!
Report GoldCupWinner November 16, 2012 8:37 AM GMT
No chance that Tanks for That will stay this distance. I've folowed the horse very closely and he's all speed.
Report boy wonder 07 November 16, 2012 10:14 AM GMT
if poquelin wins this i will give the game up
Report roobuck November 16, 2012 10:38 AM GMT
Poquelin to run ok, perhaps drop a couple and then be more of a proposition in December on the other course.
Report boy wonder 07 November 16, 2012 10:41 AM GMT
no unfortunately paying for past success handicapper always slow to relent
Report Brooksielad November 16, 2012 11:16 AM GMT
Kingsmere confirmed runner then, lovely stuff. Really fancy this now, Off a strong pace and If able to get into an early rythm can't see the horses carrying big weights coming back. Excited :)
Report turnip turns November 16, 2012 11:52 AM GMT
PA Stables ‏@PA_Stables
Tanks For That declared a non-runner for Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
Report harry callaghan November 16, 2012 12:36 PM GMT
I can see why people like kingsmere and he can win a decent handicap this season but for me i have a feeling that the novice chase he fell in isn't the strongest of races and won't amount to much...he is big odds to find out but i think flat tracks maybe more his thing and for me they are really pitching him in here...hope he comes back ok because this is tough for a novice and a novice coming off the back of a heavy fall...
Report aft November 16, 2012 2:17 PM GMT
Handicapper has 'relented' 7lb  and HD claims 7lb  - a stone off his back!  Ignore him at your peril.
Report Navel-Gazer November 16, 2012 2:44 PM GMT
Tanks For That? Tanks for fcukin' nothing Sad
Report yeast November 16, 2012 2:45 PM GMT
hunt ball drifting on here. Just out to 9.4
Report harry callaghan November 16, 2012 2:54 PM GMT
lol navel...painful game luckily i only had beans on...hope you haven't done to much damage pal
Report Fabulous November 16, 2012 3:23 PM GMT
Unlucky navel, we've all been there, a sore one, hope your luck turns.
Report Shakepseare's Sheriff November 16, 2012 4:51 PM GMT
Forpaddy got to have a big chance now Sizing franked his decent effort (2nd to him) by winning easily against some very good horses.  I think the trainer has got it spot on when he says he has fallen under the radar.... just because he hasn't won in 3 years.  He has come 2nd 9 times in graded races!, many at Grade 1.  Has excellent championship course form. Was second in a Champion Chase, 6th in the Ryanair last festival.  In the Ryanair all the horses ahead of him were are rated 165-170 (and a few behind him....what happened since?....he has been dropped 9lbs for coming 4th to Finians and 2nd to Sizing since!), jumps economically well, second to Sizing Europe (who is a class horse) over a similar trip.  It's all there to see how can he be the price he is!!!!....he should be around 8 or 10-1.  At the price he has got top be worth a punt to maybe lay during the race as his price tumbles when he is on the bit coming down the hill.
Report red and white November 16, 2012 5:20 PM GMT
I think the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies to ride Kingsmere is interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if the tactics used are similar to those for Little Josh two years ago, and he gets into a rhythm out in front. Henry Daly is not known for being cavalier and given he had two novice chase entries this weekend it's significant he's gone for the big handicap. You have to think he's been thriving at home and has more to give than he's shown so far on the track. He'll obviously need to eliminate the occasional novicey errors. He jumps very well in the main and I'm prepared to forgive him his latest fall. It was at Cheltenham's silly fence and the rider lacked a bit of experience. It wasn't a heavy fall to my eye. I think the odds of 40s are generous for an improving horse off bottom weight.
Report FOYLESWAR November 16, 2012 5:38 PM GMT
nicholls and hales seem very bullish about al ferof  ,must have been showing something at home and he has earned the weight ,has  class,course form, the right jockey and trainer and a fair price at around 8s ! hopefully i can get some money back i threw away on notus de la tour ante post for the race .
Report buddeliea November 16, 2012 5:42 PM GMT
yeh,must admit listening to Ruby has given me a bit more confidence about Alf this season.
I may just have a wager tomorrow now,but only a small one.
Report judorick November 16, 2012 5:48 PM GMT
I see the trainer as a negative, he has never won the race despite numerous attempts with good horses

oh and the horse is slow Wink

Whoops
Report FOYLESWAR November 16, 2012 6:03 PM GMT
just a case of when he wins the race not if judo imo ,granite jack would have gone very close a few years back but for falling, didnt look too slow to me when he won the supreme with those well known  plodders spirit son sprinter sacre ,cue card  behind !
Report judorick November 16, 2012 6:06 PM GMT
GrinCoolCrazy
Report FOYLESWAR November 16, 2012 6:08 PM GMT
Wink
Report Glenn11 November 16, 2012 6:09 PM GMT
glad im not the only nut thinking kingsmere can go close then.

really dont fancy anything in the top of the market, my only worry is the two henderson runners.
Report buddeliea November 16, 2012 6:54 PM GMT
alright judo?
Laugh

fancy anything strongly in the PP??
Report judorick November 16, 2012 6:59 PM GMT
not really mate!

the favourite is clearly strong after that I'm struggling to be honest as there are negatives about all of them

the one horse that comes out well at the weights, through Cue Card and For Non Stop, is Michael Flips. Only missing a win at the trip to fit the trends but to be honest he does not look classy enough for this. Certainly his mark looks good though but the price is not big enough to tempt me.

The going puts me off Poquelin more than anything else. Heeds proper spring good ground to bounce off and this gluey stuff, combined with steady fractions, will do for him.

So I've not had a bet, focussing on the conditions races tbh
Report buddeliea November 16, 2012 7:12 PM GMT
dont blame you,
fav too short with what i think is a question mark after the RSA.
There are a few of the older stagers at bigger prices that may run well that i might have a look at,like Calgary Bay,Divers,Quant,but its getting them on the right day thats tricky.
Will be an interesting race though,so even with no bet will still be good to watch for future reference.
Report Navel-Gazer November 16, 2012 7:15 PM GMT
Thanks for the commiserations guys but there's no need...I always wait until the day of the race market for these big Saturday handicaps, so I got all my cash back (got prices up to 130) I'm just pissed off because I felt confident he'd run his race, though not so sure it'd have been enough to fend off Grands Crus & Al Ferof.

I've got a few quid on several outsiders now, the best of them being Aerial for me, but with nowhere near the same confidence I had in Tanks For That.

It's always interesting that people have contrasting opinions and I believe that TFT would really have relished the demands of this race over 20f - others didn't, so maybe we'll find out next month - I hope TFT hasn't had a setback because I'll be all over him at the longer trip.
Report buddeliea November 16, 2012 7:17 PM GMT
See a few have mentioned Forpady,hes another that could run well,and may be worth a tentative e/w.
Report Brooksielad November 16, 2012 7:30 PM GMT
ladbrokes cut kingsmere into 16s chargeeeeeee glad im on at 60s and then some. Wish id took some of the 100s aswell. daaaamn
Report duffy November 16, 2012 9:05 PM GMT
quantitativeeasing looks over-priced at 30 odd on here, he's up 10lbs from his win here in december but is entitled to be, he's got a good record fresh and an excellent course form at this distance.
Report Frankyfish November 16, 2012 9:34 PM GMT
Anyone give The Disengager (P.Hobbs/R.Johnson) a shout?
Report harry callaghan November 16, 2012 9:45 PM GMT
tough ask for this horse on the holding ground...i think he would want proper good ground to get involved for me anyways...
Report GoldCupWinner November 17, 2012 12:35 AM GMT
How is the ground riding? I see all yesterdays times were slow but was that due to the ground or pace of races?
Report judorick November 17, 2012 1:35 AM GMT
both GCW

tacky gluey stuff and steady gallops
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2012 8:05 AM GMT
going - now soft - good/soft in places
Report GoldCupWinner November 17, 2012 10:23 AM GMT
33/1 looks big for Poquelin given he's back down to his last winning mark over CD and is an easy winner over CD on soft ground albeit off a lower mark. I don't understand how he is a longer price than Calgary Bay for example.
Report GoldCupWinner November 17, 2012 12:31 PM GMT
Poquelin and Quanattiveeasing both e/w are my final bets on this after much deliberation. Doesn't look the strongest of renewals, apart from the possible superstar in Grand Crus.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 17, 2012 2:45 PM GMT
Like i tried to say in my post, you have to be very careful when trainers and connections come out with excuses of why their horse did not run well in championship races at the festival.
Ok, won some small field nov chases then sent off 6/5 in an ultra competitive (as always) very hard to win RSA chase.
Report GoldCupWinner November 17, 2012 2:45 PM GMT
Not even sure either of my horses even finished a circuit! WD to winners.
Report strontium November 17, 2012 4:12 PM GMT
Well done AF backers - not my finest race either but very informative nonetheless.
Report willie the milk November 17, 2012 4:26 PM GMT
Thanf fek I decided to bet and not lay. WD all the AF supporters
Report sageform November 17, 2012 4:27 PM GMT
You have to ask why Grands Cru spent the last 2 seasons racing over 3 miles if they thought he was fast enough to win over 2.5.
Report strontium November 17, 2012 4:33 PM GMT
The bigger question for me is what's happened to Grands Crus? He's stopped like he was shot in his last 2 races now - looks a shadow of the horse that won the Cleeve and pushed Big Buck's.
Report unclepuncle November 17, 2012 5:02 PM GMT
Really thought Al Ferof would struggle to stay so got that totally wrong. My 3 small bets were a non runner and two who were tailed off after a circuit.Cry

Pretty disastrous start to the new season but at least things can only get better from now on - can't they?.Devil
Report JOCI Club November 17, 2012 5:37 PM GMT
JOCI Club 15 Nov 12 11:33 
Have finished my analysis as follows.

Looked at the folowing 13 key trends and weighted them based on how 'important' each one was i.e. if 10/10 past winners had achieved this trend then it would get more weighting than a trend that pointed to say 7 of the last 10 winners. The trends were:

1 achieved a course win
2 age less than 10
3 age 6-7
4 carrying 10'13"+
5 official rating 146+
6 1st or 2nd run of season
7 distance win between 2m4f and 2m 6f
8 won calss 2 chase or better
9 won listed / graded chase
10 fewer than 10 career chase starts (not inc PTP)
11 fewer than 6 handicap chase starts
12 ran in a chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival
13 2nd or 3rd season chasers

Based on the above trends here is my final ranking of the 20 declared horses (subject to any errors I might have made):

Al Ferof 100%
Grands Crus 100%
Quantitativeeasing 100%
Hunt Ball 83%
Aerial 79%
Nadiya De La Vega 76%
Walkon 74%
Micheal Flips 69%
Gilbarry 65%
Divers 64%
Tanks For That 62%
Poquelin 60%
Calgary Bay 60%
Kingsmere 60%
Forpadydeplasterer 58%
Questions Answered 51%
Casey Top 44%
Triolo D´Alene 42%
Finger On The Pulse 37%
The Disengager 36%

Good luck finding the winner!



The trends knew the winner !!
Report duffy November 17, 2012 9:23 PM GMT
even though you'd have had to split your stakes 3 waysWink
Report sintonian November 18, 2012 11:26 AM GMT
Al Ferof winning over 20f on Soft vindicates us who were arguing against him being a 2 miler. No doubting his talent though. Top performance.
Report sintonian November 18, 2012 11:27 AM GMT
Decent effort from the Mare Nadiya. She has her own way of getting over the fences, needs a top jockey.
Report alleged22 November 18, 2012 1:28 PM GMT
awesome performance from AF some of us never lost the faith
Report Swagger November 18, 2012 3:18 PM GMT
Well done those who backed the winner (Budd always been a fan of the winner) and Harry with Walkon, hope you backed each way. They got a lot more rain than the 2-3 mm forecast the night before and it really made the ground horrific, you were 100% right Harry. Reminds of the race Tranquil Sea won where only a few horses acted on the ground. When the rains comes like that the ratings often go out the window in handicaps, always best to bet late unlike me yesterday Crazy
Report harry callaghan November 18, 2012 5:48 PM GMT
cheers swagger well was on ew but it was a desperate result in regards walkon whom i backed heavily and would of got the betting bank back where i want it after a very good recent run of form...I have to say when i formed my book al ferof was not in my calculations and for a creature i have not much time for, it made the pain much harder to take as he wasn't even a runner till 5 days before the race and was never really in my calculations and because of my opinion of the animal my judgement was clouded in regards a saver...i knew he had won on heavy before but just thought he had just a tad to much weight...walkon ran his race but just bottomed the last 2 fences when he needed to wing them and cost him any chance of challenging and getting al ferof well and truly off the snaffle... although he may, just of not had anything left and thats why thornton didn't throw him at either fence....

we march on but back to just scrapping away but the way they pulled clear and if al ferof hadn't turned up walkon would of been a very easy winner...

its a sick game
Report buddeliea November 18, 2012 5:59 PM GMT
creature i have not much time for??

hes a horse mate!!
Report harry callaghan November 18, 2012 6:30 PM GMT
budd you know my views on the animal i had a long conversation with you about him on another thread...

lets see if he can back it up next time and then we will have a true idea on whether he is the horse you and others believe him to be...i will have to eat humble pie if he does thats for sure
Report buddeliea November 18, 2012 6:42 PM GMT
Not actually sure what i believe him to be.
All ive really believed is that hes a typical Cheltenham horse,which ive said ever since the Supreme.
Thats why i have backed him in debates on here and touted him for the Arkle.
Ive not touted him for any other race.
I would be worried about him handling Kempton well enough to win a KG,but would have no hesitation in backing him next March for whatever race he ends up going for.
Yesterday for me showed again that hes a very good horse at Cheltenham,and can act on any ground.
It also showed me hes capable of reaching the top at his ultimate distance(be it 2 and half or 3m-3m plus.
Report eric_morris November 20, 2012 8:54 AM GMT
Why the wind op for Grands Crus, cant they see he ran like he has before as a none stayer OVER FENCES. He might get 3m on fast ground but no wind op will see him slog around a trip or as shown when the oppo is good, even shorter.
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