Horse Antepost
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18 Sep 12
10:08
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Date Joined:
03 Feb 11
Its not that far away and with the trials all over now I was looking at the prices on betfair of horses and have come to the conclusion that ST NICHOLAS ABBEY looks great value at odds around 25-1 on betfair certainly ew thats for sure.
What we know is that this horse is top class at 1m4f and looks to come off a strong pace with a finish that starts around 2f out and continues rather than an instant burst, well he will almost certainly get everything he wants in the arc and with luck in running then he has to go close.
I am worried in one respect and that is jockeyship has a huge part to play in winning an arc and thats a potential problem in my eyes as it does appear that o brien has modelled himself on jamie spencer and thats not the way to go about winning an arc, showing off at the back of a field wont work in this race, but its something to deal with as they wont jock him off, unless shock of all shocks they run Camelot that would be a huge help in my eyes at least.
This season the horse has not really has things go for him, he started off ok but then it looked like the wheels had come off a little when beaten 1.5L in the king george by Danedream and Nathanial but lets not forget the terrible ride he was given that day and yet he still managed to get that close to two horses who where being ridden for their lives to win the race.
He then drops down to 10f to take on Frankel which was poor judgement by the stable and they then keep him to ten furlongs in the Irish Champion when he ran well but again showed that 10f just does not seem to be his trip.
What the 10f might of done is put some of the tactical speed back into him that he will need in an arc so it might not of been all bad news dropping him in trip.
If you look at the prices of Danedream and Nathanial compared to this guy you will see that its very strange the difference between tham with them being around 8 on betfair and this guy at 25 its making no sense at all and the value is their for all to see.
He will need a good draw as if you get drawn out in the car park at longchamp then you can forget it, but if a good draw comes his way then you know the race will be run to suit and if the jockey whoever it is can time the run he has every chance of winning the race let alone gettting placed.
Anyway to be seen, best wishes.
Manuel.
PS, DONT FORGET THE DOUBLE, MEDICEAN MAN FOR THE ABBAYE, IF HE RUNS OF COURSE
What we know is that this horse is top class at 1m4f and looks to come off a strong pace with a finish that starts around 2f out and continues rather than an instant burst, well he will almost certainly get everything he wants in the arc and with luck in running then he has to go close.
I am worried in one respect and that is jockeyship has a huge part to play in winning an arc and thats a potential problem in my eyes as it does appear that o brien has modelled himself on jamie spencer and thats not the way to go about winning an arc, showing off at the back of a field wont work in this race, but its something to deal with as they wont jock him off, unless shock of all shocks they run Camelot that would be a huge help in my eyes at least.
This season the horse has not really has things go for him, he started off ok but then it looked like the wheels had come off a little when beaten 1.5L in the king george by Danedream and Nathanial but lets not forget the terrible ride he was given that day and yet he still managed to get that close to two horses who where being ridden for their lives to win the race.
He then drops down to 10f to take on Frankel which was poor judgement by the stable and they then keep him to ten furlongs in the Irish Champion when he ran well but again showed that 10f just does not seem to be his trip.
What the 10f might of done is put some of the tactical speed back into him that he will need in an arc so it might not of been all bad news dropping him in trip.
If you look at the prices of Danedream and Nathanial compared to this guy you will see that its very strange the difference between tham with them being around 8 on betfair and this guy at 25 its making no sense at all and the value is their for all to see.
He will need a good draw as if you get drawn out in the car park at longchamp then you can forget it, but if a good draw comes his way then you know the race will be run to suit and if the jockey whoever it is can time the run he has every chance of winning the race let alone gettting placed.
Anyway to be seen, best wishes.
Manuel.
PS, DONT FORGET THE DOUBLE, MEDICEAN MAN FOR THE ABBAYE, IF HE RUNS OF COURSE
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Last year he ran too close to the front of the race - if they do the same this I doubt he'll be placed. He seems to be pretty well exposed now so it's hard to see him winning but if held up he could run into a place.
The jockey is a huge negative im afraid, much as I think he has a decent chance of winning the race. Would need decent ground also.
If Camelot or Imperial Monarch run then Joseph O'Brien will very likely choose either of them before SNA, and there's a decent chance Heffernan will get the mount - he's more than competent.
FWIW...I have watched the St.Leger a dozen times and I think there's a lot of pocket-talking going on, as Camelot was DEFINITELY beaten by a superior beast ON THE DAY, who was better equipped for the demands of the race.
Whilst not being a huge fan of Joey, I don't think he's inept (like some others) though he's far from the finished article.
SNA is more than a fair E/W punt but as A_T intimates, if he's 'sacrificed' in a similar manner to last year, he's got little chance.
The massive outsider in the field I'm interested in is Reliable Man (100/1 right now) as I strongly suspect he'll be running (which is the main factor) although strangely he missed the Foy - he is declared this weekend at Newbury which is a surprise as that tempers confidence (even though it should be a stroll) and makes me believe he's possibly been short of work.
OR...could his trainer have been scared off by Orfevre, and was hoping to keep his Arc dream alive?
He's shown steady & progressive form this year, and looks like he's been targeted at this for some time - take a closer look at his (video) form because he's in with a shout, and he's readily been forgotten about.
FWIW...I have watched the St.Leger a dozen times and I think there's a lot of pocket-talking going on, as Camelot was DEFINITELY beaten by a superior beast ON THE DAY, who was better equipped for the demands of the race.
Whilst not being a huge fan of Joey, I don't think he's inept (like some others) though he's far from the finished article.
SNA is more than a fair E/W punt but as A_T intimates, if he's 'sacrificed' in a similar manner to last year, he's got little chance.
The massive outsider in the field I'm interested in is Reliable Man (100/1 right now) as I strongly suspect he'll be running (which is the main factor) although strangely he missed the Foy - he is declared this weekend at Newbury which is a surprise as that tempers confidence (even though it should be a stroll) and makes me believe he's possibly been short of work.
OR...could his trainer have been scared off by Orfevre, and was hoping to keep his Arc dream alive?
He's shown steady & progressive form this year, and looks like he's been targeted at this for some time - take a closer look at his (video) form because he's in with a shout, and he's readily been forgotten about.
He's a 10-12lb better horse going left handed - Longchamp where they are on a right hand turn for almost 2/3 of the race is not for him.
Just save him for a repeat win in the Breeders Cup Turf.
Just save him for a repeat win in the Breeders Cup Turf.
Uncle, SNA would be some horse then if he is 10-12lb better left handed having been beaten 1.5 lengths at Ascot, are you saying that if he was to meet Danedream and Nathanial going left handed he would have 6 lengths in hand?
This year if you look at his races its reasonable to argue that hs best form persormance was at Ascot in the King George given his proximity to the first two, as for last years arc they rode him wrong, its not a track thing for me its circumstance and also sometimes the ride he has been given in certain races, with luck in running he has every chance in the arc and the price that he is bares no relation to his level of form.
As for Reliable Man well after you pulled ENCKE out the hat im loathed to disagree with his chance, something tells me though that he is not really upto the level required to win an arc, though to be fair the price is large for a horse of his ability, as for that **** horse that you where onto ages ago it did look impressive the other day and of course previously, but i will go in firing on SNA who for me is outstanding value, is he really a 25-1 chance, me thinks not
This year if you look at his races its reasonable to argue that hs best form persormance was at Ascot in the King George given his proximity to the first two, as for last years arc they rode him wrong, its not a track thing for me its circumstance and also sometimes the ride he has been given in certain races, with luck in running he has every chance in the arc and the price that he is bares no relation to his level of form.
As for Reliable Man well after you pulled ENCKE out the hat im loathed to disagree with his chance, something tells me though that he is not really upto the level required to win an arc, though to be fair the price is large for a horse of his ability, as for that **** horse that you where onto ages ago it did look impressive the other day and of course previously, but i will go in firing on SNA who for me is outstanding value, is he really a 25-1 chance, me thinks not
Manuel - I too suspect that Reliable Man is entirely exposed and has been running to his full extent, but at three figure odds, I don't mind paying to find out.
His trainer is as shrewd as they come, and I'm sure his intention has been for this colt to peak on Arc day, and not in the summer races he's contested - he hasn't really got THAT much to find, and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise.
As I said a few days ago..he's ran with a lot of promise despite not looking like winning.
As for Orfevre...I feel foolish for not being on at the bigger prices because I've been aware of his prowess since last year!
PS - give me a ring Manuel.
His trainer is as shrewd as they come, and I'm sure his intention has been for this colt to peak on Arc day, and not in the summer races he's contested - he hasn't really got THAT much to find, and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise.
As I said a few days ago..he's ran with a lot of promise despite not looking like winning.
As for Orfevre...I feel foolish for not being on at the bigger prices because I've been aware of his prowess since last year!
PS - give me a ring Manuel.
I see Reliable Man has been withdrawn from Newbury this weekend...any news on him?
I really can't see him missing the Arc, as he hasn't raced since the King George, and for a French-trained colt to forego the Arc for the Champion Stakes (against Frankel) would be utter madness!
The 100's or so has gone, but if he makes the party (which he should, though now I'm a little concerned) he will be a third of that price!
PS - just looked on France Galop and there's an open goal Group three (10f) on Saturday in France at his mercy against just FOUR bums, so hopefully all is well.
I really can't see him missing the Arc, as he hasn't raced since the King George, and for a French-trained colt to forego the Arc for the Champion Stakes (against Frankel) would be utter madness!
The 100's or so has gone, but if he makes the party (which he should, though now I'm a little concerned) he will be a third of that price!
PS - just looked on France Galop and there's an open goal Group three (10f) on Saturday in France at his mercy against just FOUR bums, so hopefully all is well.
Are connections mooting a Breeders Cup race for RELIABLE MAN?
I don't know Bazzar but that surely wouldn't preclude a stab at the Arc...is it 4 or 5 weeks between the two?
Reliable Man runs tomorrow in France, not Saturday - it looks like a simple confidence booster.
I must say i would rather of had o brien ride camelot and someone else on st nicholas abbey but at least they may not sacrifice him now as a pacemaker or something silly for camelot.
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