MICHELANGELO ST LEGER.

Manuel - I understand why people surmise there'll be loads of improvement in a stayer that's bred for the job, and especially when it was unraced as a 2yo, but Michelangelo was ready to run last year, had entries, and met with a minor setback which kept him off the course.

Gosden spoke about this in a TV interview (at Goodwood I think) and said he was well-forward enough at two, to do himself justice.

As you say...it should be Camelot's (and I hope he can do it) but the rest are so closely packed ability-wise, it's hard to separate them.

I wouldn't put anyone off Michelangelo as his trainer has a knack with his St.Leger colts (Thought Worthy in here too) but forgetting the pacemaking rags, the outsider of the lot Encke has as good a chance as any for the frame, as the Voltigeur was very unsatisfactory as a trial, although there are stamina concerns - at 50/1, it won't take much to pay to find out.

j.gosden has put dartford in as pacemaker for michelangelo so they are not gonna hang around , wont get rich backing camelot and some tasty e.way prices for some others ,gosden has a superb record in the race and if buick chooses michelangelo that would be a big  positive ,think i willback gosdens 2 win and place .good luck

Gosden must hold Michelangelo in high regard to pitch him a Listed race on his debut, and he clearly has a lot of talent.

Camelot in terms of form is so far ahead it is difficult to see him getting beaten. Of course horses can catch up as the season progresses but then you would like to see horses gradually improve with racing. To me Michelangelo took a little step back at Goodwood and whilst 20 is ok if you can get a place on those terms, his price with the books is too short imo as he would be an e/w option.

I had liked, and still do to a smaller degree, Thomas Chippendale. If you forget York, his form ties in favourably with a lot of the other principals and on that basis is no 25/1 shot. However, whatever the excuses as regards the race at York, his run lto was also disappointing and not the step forward to give any realistic hope of him challenging Camelot.

Good luck with your play Manuel

Well its not like we are looking at an even money shot here, as another poster mentioned he has always been held in high regard as the listed first time out showed, to win the 10f races was excellent for a horse with his pedigree and the key to backing him as the alternative to the favourite is that his only flop AS SUCH was at Goodwood and you can forgive any horse at that track, it just may not of suited him, I would be a little surprised if buick chose the other one but who knows, the one thing that seems highly likely is that his breeding and this trip are made for each other and there could be a tonne of improvement for it, still might not be good enough but you never know and there are decent odds around.

best wishes,

Manuel

I like Gosden's other runner Thought Worthy. His defeat behind Thomas Chip was,imo, down to the ground.

Agree with you Sint backed this horse all season trip looks like what he needs, big price to boot im in!

I have a lot of respect for the OP so I take his selection seriously especially as I had already shortlisted him as shown in the post I made earlier in the main forum

"Camelot does indeed stand out like a sore thumb in the St Leger and has upwards of 8lb in hand according to the BHA assessors

However, bearing in mind the longer trip and the history of the race, I just have to look for some value given the fact that it is 7/1 bar one and so I have spent considerable time evaluating the contenders. I have used a variety of trends, ratings, collateral form and general knowledge to form my opinions. I won't bore you with my internal dialogue about the information I gleaned but some of the things that seemed important were not having raced beyond 12 furlongs, having won group races or competed in the Derby, the Gordon or the Great Voltigeur

It seems to me that Main Sequence does fit the bill very nicely and I was encouraged to see some rain at Donny today but that is not set to continue it seems - the going is set to be no slower than good - which is a shame because MS would like some cut. The placed horses from the Gordon at Goodwood (Encke and Michaelangelo) both fit the profile but have a few pounds to find with Main Sequence on the Great Voltigeur and through Noble Mission. It is feasible that either or both could improve past MS

However, I reckon MS has passed somewhat under the radar. He was extremey unlucky not to win in France where he had no run at all and was just caught out by the soft early fractions in the York race - was staying on very strongly at the death. He is going to be ideally suited to the step up in trip, the going and the long finishing straight (especially compared to Epsom) and I strongly believe he is going to push the favourite very hard and that he is really the only one in the race with any real chance against the hot pot

Maximum place bet and a decent win bet for me"


I shall now have to bet both my other shortlisted horses

Good lad Buick. Knew he'd choose TW.

sintonian's......I like Gosden's other runner Thought Worthy. His defeat behind Thomas Chip was,imo, down to the ground.

I agree with you Sint that the ground may have played a part, but only that the key part meant a prerequisite requirement for stamina, couple that with Ascots uphill finish and therein you find the real reason for Thought Worthy's defeaat; lack og enough stamina. In contrast the slow early pace of Yorks easier track and a virtual final 7 furlong sprint to the line, allowed him to reverse the Ascot form. Heres a thought worthy of some reverence...The two mile race ran an hour later won by Olympiad covered the last 12 furlongs over 3 seconds faster than Thought Worthy did the entire 12 furlongs, a race than can be totally discarded as a form guide in my opinion. Thomas Chippendale is terrific value and is easily worthy of some careful thought.

totally off the wall here about Thought Worthy,two of his three wins have been from the front,while his dam's only win was from the front,is it important for him to lead,if so  will pacemakers upset him?(even though JG runs one)just a thought worthy of a mention.

I agree that the Ascot form seems reliable because TW and Noble Mission ran virtually to the lb of their Newmarket meeting.

As mentioned above as much the price differential between TW and TC is way too big, especially as the funeral pace and the concession of weight in the York race seemed to affect TC the most. As there was such a turnaround in form between NM and TW ( NM also too keen without the hood ), it is that form that does seem suspect.

As much as I want TC to win, it is clear that that axis of form, whichever way you look at it, is way below the standard needed to topple Camelot. It takes quite a leap of faith to believe that the extra 2 furlongs is going to make enough difference.

Hence as an alternative play I have chosen Ursa Major e/w in both the w/o and main markets, fortunately before the real price drops. The horse is progressive and is from a different formline.

One last thought is that Gosden's pacemaker is in the same ownership as Michelangelo. Whilst it needs to be a stamina test for any horse to have a chance of beating Camelot, surely it will be of greater benefit to him out of Gosden's two.

Ursa Major gone from 12,s in the w/o market yesterday to 6,s today.(lads)

Actually got 16s in the w/o market

Why will a pacemaker suit Michaelangelo more? He clearly needs one.

Sisyphus, Lucarno raced twice on Soft ground in his career, 4/1 & 11/2, beaten over 18 lengths each time. I cant be having stamina as reason for his defeat at Ascot.

Roobuck, that's a very decent price. I like your logic but am concerned by Ursa only having run on soft ground - why do you think he'll go on good (or are you just taking a chance with that figured in to the price?)

Obviously the ground is a potential concern, but then what chance has he had to run on anything else in Ireland?

I would have played anyway at the price but his dam has produced a few horses and one, Whirly Bird, enjoyed fast going. Being by Galileo would also indicate that he may improve for better ground. Truth is I don't know but wouldn't play at current prices

Well I think it will improve him the good ground he won at dundalk and that is a fast enough surface

Im confused.Dartfords use as a pacemaker will compromise Thoughtworthys chance.He wont be able to dictate the Pace.
So from this we dedeuce that Gosden is trying to find a flaw in Camelots stamina by making sure of a fast pace.Problem is there are other hold up horses who will appreciate a fast run race tactics-wise,[tho will their stamina hold up?].
Without Dartford a re-run of the Voltigeur would occur,has Gosden got it right?.

Will it? Does he have to lead then or can he just sit 3 or 4 lengths off in second place and then take up the slack when Dartford weakens?? Surely Gosden is aware of it.

If its a re- run of York, Camelot wins period  - has to be a stamina test.

As said before, Dartford is in same ownership as Michelangelo and so surely the pace making  duties will be for his benefit

Yes i'd agree becaase Michaleangelo cannot make his own pace. The owner would not want to compromise his main runners chance knowing that TW can make the pace and quicken, so he's put in a pacemaker. But this has no direct bearing on TW imo. Why cant he sit in 2nd or 3rd and then take it up when the pacemaker dies?

I think the pacemaker will help both of Jonny Gs main hopes, as both are bred to stay this Leger trip well.
Of the pair, i like Thought W & have played at 4s (Hills) w/o the fav, who i fully expect to be way to classy for the rest.
Michelangelo at 5.5 on here w/o Cam, is a saver for me, as i think the Gosden pair could fill the places 2nd/3rd.
Both of them are open to more improvement, especially over this trip.

well done Manueal/sissyphus

Got TW completely wrong and paid for it, lots.

Sint - I'm surmising you missed the 'gilt-edged' advice somewhere in there;

"...but forgetting the pacemaking rags, the outsider of the lot Encke has as good a chance as any for the frame"

My only win from the race was place laying Main Sequence, Navel. But that still left me with a black hole to fill after backing Thought Worthy.

Well done with Encke.

Mike not been a well bunny im afraid as the old chest infection kicked in, i told you Michelangelo was a good bet to either win the race and get placed but then wait a minute, WELL DONE YOU for putiing your selection in the first reply about the only one who put ENCKE up, excellent work and hope you made some cash for once.

I'd missed that too, well played navel. Hope you went place on Michelangelo Manuel as well as the win odds quoted.

Just had a thought, I Was thinking that had Camelot won the triple crown then we would of had to endure all the accolades and ballydoyle singing its praises, when lets face it all its done this year is beat trees and get beat in a poor leger, before you all get stuck in this is my opinion, lets face it nothing he has beat has done anything, the form of the guineas and derby is bad and the leger field was poor, however what an incentive they have to keep it in training now.

Lets face it all this years three year olds are rubbish and Camelot is miles ahead of them all, so next year they should not pose a problem barring something showing a massive amount of progression, the older horses this year are going to be finished so they wont be around to bother him and furthermore without Dawn Approach next years dont look to hot either so its all on a plate for him.

Start of in Ireland with the tatterstalls race, then the coronation cup, onto the king george, arc prep and the arc, then off to stud, he will almost certainly mature as well next year and actually might deserve all the talk then, to be seen but it looks on a plate next season.

By the way you know what OH SO SHARP just does not get any credit for what she did, her guineas was better than camelots as was her oaks field better thn his derby and then manages to win a poor leger where camelot failed, shame really but then as a filly maybe thats the reason