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BJG
27 Aug 12 09:32
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 3,831 | Blogger: BJG's blog
6-7420    Aaim To Prosper72      8     Brian Meehan     107    90    109
408213    Address Unknown56    5     Ian Williams     99    87    103
3/41-2    Albert Bridge160    4     Ralph Beckett     82    30    88
13141    Alhellal112    6     M Phelan     —    83    89
698-80    Ashbrittle52    5     David Pipe     87    72    99
27-087    Astral Thunder63    5     Marco Botti     94    92    95
2216-1    Astromagick142    4     Mark H Tompkins     77    48    81
01-531    Awesome Pearl67    3     Sir Mark Prescott Bt     79    67    85
906450    Becausewecan50      6     Mark Johnston     81    76    83
0-7996    Bernie The Bolt63      6     Andrew Balding     87    79    95
1/17-4    Beyond73    5     David Pipe     88    63    91
1-2327    Beyond Conceit49    3     Tom Tate     88    83    92
21212    Biographer49    3     David Lanigan     95    102    99
1-3544    Blazing Field65    4     Clive Cox     79    65    86
456940    Blue Bajan49    10     David O´Meara     98    73    106
135-01    Body Language67    4     Ian Williams     81    79    83
712207    Bordoni133    3     Mark Johnston     82    70    88
069/6-    Bothy414    6     Brian Ellison     79    —    —
0-5273    Buy Back Bob50    5     A J Martin     —    73    88
348475    Calaf50    4     Brian Ellison     81    81    87
64/358    Cape Express52    7     Nicky Henderson     84    77    91
110-40    Cosimo de Medici116      5     Hughie Morrison     86    63    90
51341-    Countrywide Flame184J    4     John Quinn     84    42    90
112110    Courtesy Call49    3     Mark Johnston     82    72    79
2952-2    Cry For The Moon75    6     J H Culloty     —    83    87
22296    Dark Ranger78      6     Tim Pitt     84    87    93
62/88-    Darley Sun364      6     Saeed Bin Suroor     102    49    104
72743    Dazinski52    6     Mark H Tompkins     88    91    95
13636/    Decoy101J    6     David Pipe     84    —    —
842-70    Downhiller52    7     John Dunlop     85    67    82
5-3426    Eagle Rock52    4     Tom Tate     82    85    88
242-00    Ermyn Lodge63    6     Pat Phelan     93    33    90
1-6335    Eternal Bounty49    3     David Wachman     —    89    96
345-41    Ethics Girl65    6     John Berry     80    79    84
3-2400    French Hollow52    7     Tim Fitzgerald     81    72    86
58225    Gabrial´s Star49    3     Bryan Smart     85    82    88
12462    Gassin Golf56      3     Sir Mark Prescott Bt     93    92    97
24-038    Gordonsville73    9     Jim Goldie     80    62    89
132710    Herostatus52    5     David O´Meara     87    73    92
4/11-    Hidden Universe342    6     D K Weld     —    69    94
776-24    Huff And Puff50    5     Amanda Perrett     79    74    —
030810    Hurricane Higgins49    4     Mark Johnston     101    92    103
02-11    I Have A Dream79    3     A P O´Brien     —    87    100
762-30    Icon Dream49    5     Jim Goldie     100    90    104
44485    Jonny Delta65    5     Jim Goldie     72    61    78
101070    Kangaroo Court57    8     Emma Lavelle     78    66    85
94206-    Kayef337J    5     Michael Scudamore     82    71    86
11115-    Kepler´s Law390    4     Sir Mark Prescott Bt     85    —    —
47-191    Kleitomachos91    4     Stuart Kittow     81    78    86
329027    Lexington Bay50    4     Richard Fahey     84    81    89
11-215    Lordofthehouse120      4     William Haggas     88    86    95
7351-2    Los Nadis84J    8     Jim Goldie     78    73    83
60-934    Lyric Street63      4     Ed Dunlop     94    71    99
4312-2    Martial Law85    6     David Pipe     84    32    90
31105/    Martyr748      7     George Baker     97    —    —
99960    Merchant Of Dubai50    7     Jim Goldie     83    51    73
260504    Mica Mika56    4     Richard Fahey     81    62    87
14-747    Mohedian Lady98      4     Sir Mark Prescott Bt     103    89    105
52243    Mojolika58    4     Tim Easterby     74    66    82
389539    Montaff63    6     Mick Channon     89    83    93
2-5411    Montaser78    3     David Simcock     95    90    97
513217    Moon Trip49    3     Mark Johnston     86    85    94
4-0814    Motivado49      4     Sir Mark Prescott Bt     103    78    109
47151    Mubaraza63    3     John Dunlop     92    92    98
05434    Mystery Star52    7     Mark H Tompkins     93    94    99
99/530    Nafaath73    6     Neil King     88    50    91
890065    Nanton50    10     Jim Goldie     87    91    91
2/257-    Nebula Storm476      5     Gary Moore     100    —    —
1-8030    Never Can Tell52      5     Jamie Osborne     100    90    102
8-7263    Notable Graduate71      4     D K Weld     —    33    97
124643    O Ma Lad57    4     Sylvester Kirk     80    69    87
02-131    Olympiad52    4     D K Weld     —    94    99
42140    Orsippus73      6     Michael Smith     82    66    87
078/2-    Pateese154J    7     Philip Hobbs     73    —    —
412910    Pokfulham50    6     Jim Goldie     79    64    83
23-210    Qahriman49    4     Luca Cumani     96    83    104
22-244    Repeater49      3     Sir Mark Prescott Bt     95    91    102
201-24    Right Stuff154J    9     Gary Moore     88    87    97
9-1340    Rockfella63    6     Denis Coakley     80    62    88
28731S    Romeo Montague73    4     Ed Dunlop     93    90    99
650277    Saborido63    6     Amanda Perrett     75    70    82
173-75    Samarkand50      4     Sir Mark Prescott Bt     80    52    64
117-64    Sense Of Purpose96    5     D K Weld     —    96    101
686-09    Sentry Duty73      10     Nicky Henderson     87    51    79
64-932    Sohar91    4     James Toller     79    70    85
30/072    Stormy Weather50    6     Brian Ellison     80    56    77
0/4486    Swinging Hawk91    6     Ian Williams     77    87    87
11221    Teak77    5     Ian Williams     75    79    80
24046-    Ted Spread211J    5     Paul Nicholls     104    —    —
1-0141    Telbes83    4     M Delzangles     —    76    97
54-078    Tominator49    5     Reg Hollinshead     97    91    101
001203    Trovare63    5     Amanda Perrett     80    83    84
332-6    Valid Reason57    5     Dean Ivory     83    71    88
347102    Very Good Day52    5     Mick Channon     91    94    98
19850    War Poet50    5     David O´Meara     92    86    98
0-6120    Western Prize52    4     Ralph Beckett     90    75    92
27/11-    Whispering Gallery583    6     Saeed Bin Suroor     110    —    —


Motivado (10) , I Have A Dream (12) , Olympiad (12) , Montaser (14) , Hidden Universe (16) , Lordofthehouse (16) , Alhellal (20) , Biographer (20) , Countrywide Flame (20) , Decoy (20) , Eternal Bounty (20) , Hurricane Higgins (20) , Keplers Law (20) , Moon Trip (20) , Mubaraza (20) , Never Can Tell (20) , Telbes (20) , Whispering Gallery (20) , Address Unknown (25) , Albert Bridge (25)  - OTHERS  25 or more
Pause Switch to Standard View ***2012 Cesarewitch***
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Report roobuck October 11, 2012 11:08 AM BST
Just seen from other thread that Montaser is 1st reserve - must be the top 34 are taking their place. That must be really unusal
Report roobuck October 11, 2012 11:09 AM BST
Card on RP site now, BTB in 11. Here we go
Report aft October 11, 2012 11:38 AM BST
Bit of a disappointment again (following Face the Problem!) Was confident both would have won.
Will now have to pin hopes on my 'saver' on CWF (but only 25k).
Its all good fun!
Report BJG October 11, 2012 12:30 PM BST
NO. DRAW    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
11     742096    Aaim To Prosper16      8    9-10    Brian Meehan58    Kieren Fallon     107    90    113
213     4-0814    Motivado49      4    9-6    Sir Mark Prescott Bt50    Luke Morris     103    86    117
34     082130    Address Unknown35 tp    5    9-2    Ian Williams31    Tom Queally     99    99    114
419     081033    Hurricane Higgins29    4    9-2    Mark Johnston48    Joe Fanning     99    87    122
53     07814    Tominator29    5    9-1    Jonjo O´Neill    Jamie Spencer     98    104    117
614     62-308    Icon Dream42    5    9-1    Jim Goldie25    William Buick     98    103    116
715     105/04    Martyr16      7    9-0    George Baker80    Richard Hughes     97    92    117
85     694049    Blue Bajan29    10    9-0    David O´Meara50    Michael Hills     97    97    117
933     02-131    Olympiad52    4    8-13    D K Weld43    Pat Smullen     96    109    113
1035     0-9346    Lyric Street35 b1      4    8-11    Ed Dunlop62    Darren Egan5     94    95    116
1132     7-0877    Astral Thunder14 b    5    8-11    Marco Botti67    James Doyle     94    109    111
1236     2-1171    I Have A Dream35 4x    3    8-11    A P O´Brien75    Ryan Moore     106    104    126
1322     347102    Very Good Day52    5    8-10    Mick Channon50    Martin Harley     93    112    115
1418     242-00    Ermyn Lodge63 v    6    8-10    Pat Phelan50    Ian Mongan     93    51    107
1517     61206    Western Prize29    4    8-7    Ralph Beckett63    Jim Crowley     90    100    116
1631     895397    Montaff29    6    8-6    Mick Channon50    Andrea Atzeni     89    105    115
1712     01-248    Right Stuff17    9    8-5    Gary Moore38    John Fahy     88    54    84
1827     1-215R    Lordofthehouse16    4    8-5    William Haggas60    Adam Beschizza     88    109    117
196    99/530    Nafaath15J    6    8-5    Neil King    Mickael Barzalona     88    73    114
2016     0/0721    Stormy Weather25 4xhb    6    8-5    Brian Ellison57    Martin Lane     88    109    115
217     1341-1    Countrywide Flame29 4x    4    8-5    John Quinn75    Jimmy Quinn     88    106    115
2229     686-09    Sentry Duty73      10    8-4    Nicky Henderson     87    75    103
2311     79965    Bernie The Bolt21      6    8-4    Andrew Balding68    David Probert     87    103    117
2434     698-80    Ashbrittle41J b    5    8-3    David Pipe    Martin Dwyer     86    97    124
2510    1/17-4    Beyond73    5    8-3    David Pipe    Conor Hoban5     86    88    116
2630    13141    Alhellal112    6    8-3    M Phelan    Wayne Lordan     86    108    114
2721     10-404    Cosimo de Medici22 t      5    8-3    Hughie Morrison42    Nicky Mackay     86    88    115
2826     952-20    Cry For The Moon35    6    8-3    J H Culloty100    Chris Hayes     86    108    112
2925     41-201    Albert Bridge21 4x    4    8-3    Ralph Beckett63    Harry Bentley     86    86    119
302     11115-    Kepler´s Law390    4    8-2    Sir Mark Prescott Bt50    Chris Catlin     85    —    —
3123     312-23    Martial Law29 b    6    8-1    David Pipe    Kieran O'Neill     84    107    117
3224     13636/    Decoy41J b    6    8-1    David Pipe    Hayley Turner     84    —    —
3328    222964    Dark Ranger21      6    8-1    Tim Pitt    James Sullivan     84    114    118
349     643881    O Ma Lad15 4x    4    8-1    Sylvester Kirk75    Raul Da Silva3     84    96    113
3520     54112    Montaser23    3    8-0    David Simcock79    Franny Norton     95    118    132
368     34263    Eagle Rock21    4    7-13    Tom Tate    Dominic Fox3     82    114    116
Montaser: reserve Eagle Rock: reserve
Report sintonian October 11, 2012 1:01 PM BST
Does anyone have the 10 year trends for this race, particularly the minimum number of runs a horse has won this race with. These huge field handicaps where there is an emphasis on stamina usually require the experience to go with it. This is why I was against Haggas's horse in the Cambridgeshire.

Unoriginal but im looking at Olympiad, but he's had just the 6 run, but on the positive side is a 4yo so should be fully mature.
Report Facts October 11, 2012 1:11 PM BST
aft

CF you mean
Report BJG October 11, 2012 1:22 PM BST
The Betfred Cesarewitch takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 13th October and as always will be a wide open affair with around 30 runners going to post. It makes up the second part of the Autumn Double with the Cambridgeshire, which was won by Bronze Angel two weeks ago.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-17
4yo: 2-9-107
5yo: 1-8-82
6yo: 3-8-54
7yo: 1-2-38
8yo+: 2-2-35
Horses aged 6+ hold an advantage with a combined record of 6-12-127 compared to horses aged 3 to 5 (4-18-206).
4 of the 6 winners aged 6+ had run over hurdles that year.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-1-19
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-66
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-12-91
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 3-6-78
Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 1-4-70
Horses carrying 7-6 or less: 0-2-9
No strong trend to be gleaned from the weights of the winners.
Top Weight: 00000005904 (0-1-11)
Horses carrying a penalty (1-5-45) don’t have a great record with just 6 of 45 runners making the frame, though they did fill the 1st & 3rd in 2011.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 76 to 86: 2-13-137
Horses rated 87 to 98: 7-14-166
Horses rated 99 to 109: 1-3-30
7 of 10 winners (including last 6) were officially rated 87 to 98. That ratings bracket has also accounted for 16 of the 20 places in past 5 runnings.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in the first 4 on their last flat start
7 of 10 winners posted their highest flat RPR on last flat start
9 of 10 winners ran at class 3 or higher last time out
9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that year (flat or hurdles)
8 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)
7 of 10 winners had run at listed or group level
5 of 10 winners had won over hurdles (4 of the 5 had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year)

Other Races
Hill Dickinson Handicap winner (Countrywide Flame): 1 (1-0-1)
Shergar Cup Stayers winner (Address Unknown): 0017 (1-0-4)
John Guest Brown Jack Stakes winner (Montaser): 008010 (1-0-6)
Bet At bluesquare.com Stakes winner (Lordofthehouse): 00 (0-0-2)
BetVictor.com Stakes winner (Olympiad): 000 (0-0-3)
Isle Of Skye Handicap winner (Albert Bridge): 000 (0-0-3)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Hurricane Higgins): 500000 (0-0-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 0108
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 243
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in John Guest Brown Jack Stakes, finishing 512
2 of 10 winners ran in the Shergar Cup Stayers handicap, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in Doncaster Cup last time, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Carter H'cap last time, finishing 33

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-1-8) has gained 2 winners and a second from his 8 runners in the past 10 years.
Mark Johnston (1-1-17), David Simcock (1-0-1) and Brian Meehan (1-0-2) have all trained the winner once since 2002.
Tim Fitzgerald (0-2-3) saddled Inchnadamph to finish 3rd-2nd-5th in 3 consecutive years, while Dermot Weld (0-2-4) trained Direct Bearing to be placed twice in the race and David Pipe (0-2-8) has also saddled 2 placed finishers in past 10 runnings.
Trainers who were predominantly focused on NH have won 6 of the last 12 runnings since 2000 (Martin Pipe X 2, Nicky Henderson X 2, Tony Martin and Philip Hobbs).
Irish-trained runners (1-4-16) have made the frame with 5 of 16 runners.

Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 12: 7-12-120
Horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-11-120
Horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-7-93
Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn low with 7 of the last 10 winners begin drawn 1 to 12.
Horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-6-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 4 of last 10 winners and taken a quarter of the places from just over 15% of the total runners.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below
Caracciola was a shock 50/1 winner in 2008 and Never Can Tell at 25/1 last year have been the 2 big upsets with the other 8 winners since 2002 all going off 16/1 or below.
Favourites (2-4-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.

Racing Style
8 of 10 winners were held up or settled in mid division
This is clearly not an easy race to be up with the pace early and stay there with only 2 winners racing prominently, including last year’s winner, Never Can Tell, who made all.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Non-hurdler aged 3 to 5 or hurdles runner aged 6+
Officially rated 87 to 98
Finished in the first 4 last time in a class 3 or higher
Posted highest RPR last time out
Run in 12 or fewer flat handicaps (winning no more than 3)
Won over at least 2 miles
Won over hurdles (and ran at this year’s Cheltenham Festival)
Previously contested a group or listed race
Previously won a class 2 or 3 handicap
Ran in this season’s Northumberland Plate
First 5 in Ascot Stakes, Shergar Cup Stayers or John Guest Brown Jack H’cap
Placed in Doncaster Cup or Gordon Carter H’cap last time
Drawn 1 to 12 (ideally in 1 to 5)
Tends to be held up or settled in midfield
Trained by Nicky Henderson
Report roobuck October 11, 2012 1:53 PM BST
Thanks BJG

sint as far as Olympiad is concerned, if you are worried about experience surely the fact that he has only run 6 times coming the end of his 4yo season, it would indicate that he has either been injury prone or is immature. I'd be surprised if a horse with so few runs had won but that wouldn't stop me backing him if I thought he was the right horse.

A bigger concern for Olympiad would be the draw stat imo if you follow them.

For him, I think his chance depends on how much rain they get
Report sintonian October 11, 2012 4:02 PM BST
He is by Galileo and has won on Soft. The going does not concern me THAT much but agree the draw could be the killer. 33 is nearly as bad as Orfevre.

He must be lightly raced due to having some injuries, minor ones though.

Dermot Weld's usually run well in this, has won it before and saddled the 5th last year, who has not ran since fwiw, Rainforest Magic.

All in all, lack of exp and bad draw, I think i'll wait until Saturday as the books may try and get him. He has drifted to 14/1 already. I'll see whats on offer on Saturday.

Just had a look at BTB. I can see the appeal with his handicap mark, and he should be gaining fitness with each run. Being 6yo the more runs he has the better, and his best run of the season was his last one. He appears to like quick ground though, all his wins have been on G or better, but at 33/1 he looks a decent outsider. gl.
Report sintonian October 11, 2012 4:03 PM BST
cheers BJG
Report RozelKid October 11, 2012 4:45 PM BST
Bernie the Bolt drawn in 11,  i really surprised at the price being so big.
Report conditor October 11, 2012 7:21 PM BST
Ashbrittle  Happy
Report turnip turns October 12, 2012 11:05 AM BST
BHA Admin going for Newmarket Saturday

NEWMARKET (Updated: 8:44)    Good to Soft

    (GoingStick: 7.3 on Wednesday at 14:00)
    Stalls: Stand Side Course
    Stalls: 18f Far Side
    Stalls: Remainder Stand Side
    The re-positioning of the bend into the home straight has
    increased the distance of the Cesarewitch by 10m.


    3mm of overnight rain.
    Friday - Overnight rain clearing to leave a breezy and
    largely dry day.
    Saturday - Sunny spells and possible light showers.
Report strontium October 12, 2012 1:14 PM BST
I'm rarely a favourite backer but I really fancy Countrywide Flame for this. Great draw, will stay, will go on the ground, top class form over hurdles including 4 wins/places in Grade 1 hurdles, had a good recent flat run, carrying a featherweight, could be almost 20 lbs well in based on his hurdles rating.

He might blow this race apart and at the prices I'm more than happy to find out.
Report roobuck October 12, 2012 1:25 PM BST
strontium I agree and like you I tend to avoid favs. I've backed Tominator and Bernie the Bolt e/w and I've kept a little back for this fellow. Missed the 9s with JCs yesterday and I am waiting to see if sponsors or someone go 9/10-1 the field for tomorrow now.
Report strontium October 12, 2012 1:34 PM BST
Roo, Tominator would be my second choice funnily enough. His last two flat runs have been eyecatching and I think the longer trip will suit.

I see he's with Jonjo now - I'll be looking forward to seeing him over hurdles.
Report Trusty October 12, 2012 4:38 PM BST
Old boy Sentry Duty must have at least a sporting chance. 6th last year off 97, 6th the year before off 102 when 14/1 and 8/1 respectively. The h'capper has at last, for a 10yr old, given him some respite and 87 is just the right sort of mark. An astonishing 35lb swing with Aim To Prosper for a 4L beating two years ago shows how well this is h'cpd imvho. Mr Henderson knows how to get him just right for this race and 70/1 on here is an insult.

Obviously e/w but I am thinking top 3 and hopefully could sneak it.

GL
Report liam the lips October 12, 2012 6:21 PM BST
Nice to see Andrew Balding have 2 winners today, getting warmer on Bernie Happy
Report ClayDavis October 12, 2012 6:24 PM BST
Anyone got any thoughts on a Very Good Day? Thought this was interesting at a price
Report roobuck October 12, 2012 6:47 PM BST
Yes clay, good price and one likely to improve for the step up in trip. My concern with him is that his best form seems to be at flat tracks and so not sure the track will suit.

Liam, Bernie is turning blue - perhaps Tom has looked in for a bit of help Grin
Report liam the lips October 12, 2012 7:28 PM BST
Maybe we should bill him Roo Grin
Report roobuck October 12, 2012 7:46 PM BST
Agreed Grin

The books are really shocking. How long has there been an AP book? Baldys I'm sure are one that have gone 33s overnight and now 16s, they sponsor the race ffs. Obviously not weight of money that's done it, purely a defensive position. I'm going to go the local in the morning to see how much they'll take...just to pi55 them off.

In the meantime could you have a word with the horse tell him we do actually need him to win Laugh
Report Duncster October 12, 2012 8:22 PM BST
Cosimo de medici fits all the trends. Quite sweet on this one
Report Millerracing67 October 12, 2012 8:46 PM BST
Only had a small interest in the Ces so far.
Took the 8.4 in the place/mkt for Bernie The Bolt, looks set for a gd run with a lot in his fav.
Report Facts October 12, 2012 9:28 PM BST
As stated previously -  Countrywide Flame to win Happy
Report roobuck October 12, 2012 10:14 PM BST
Liam cancel that invoice to Tom - bemused as to where the money has come from

Anyway good luck all with your picks
Report sintonian October 12, 2012 10:44 PM BST
Balding had a couple of winners the other day aswell Liam. Think it is roughly 5 in his last 20 or so. 25% strike rate. Looks like 20's is the top price now.
Report RozelKid October 12, 2012 11:16 PM BST
managed to get 28s on BTB a few days back, surely its getting placed Confused

everyone knowing that the Cesarewitch is very much a specialist race...and is definitly a race for being targeted at with a certain type of horse.

last year i had 2 x 100 ew doubles on danedream at 33/1 for the arc,  and bernie the bolt 33/1 /ashbrittle 33/1 in this race.

they both owe me, but this bernie the bolt is so well hcapped at the moemnt, especially around newmarket at this distance.

gl everyone tomorrow, lets just hope that DerekCry Thompson doesnt tip in on the morning line eh!
Report Tascro October 13, 2012 7:09 AM BST
Blue Bajan. I think he is massively overpriced. Has come way down in weights since last year. was 113 last year, running today of 97 and seems to be coming back to form in last 2 races. in haydock 2 races ago got no run at all over 14 furlongs and finished best of all. last time no pace at all, was marginally hampered and was only beat 3 and 3/4 lenghts to sir graham wade. will be well suited to step up in trip today and o meara is in great form at mo. very well draw in 5. m hills is a negative but u cant have it all. have had a good each way bet. best of luck.
Report Millerracing67 October 13, 2012 8:50 AM BST
Add to that Bernie pl bet, had a little bit ew Montaser 14s (Hills)
Gd luck all.Cool
Report BJG October 13, 2012 3:54 PM BST
Wat a sickening result that is Plain No idea how the 2nd or 3rd av nt won Cry
Report strontium October 13, 2012 3:59 PM BST
Ho hum.
Report bazzar October 13, 2012 4:06 PM BST
Pickard would not have laid out of his ground so far, plus he would have claimed 3lbs, bad thinking by the connections of TOMINATOR, I suppose they don't trust anybody who isn't IRISH.
Report layingisthewayforward October 13, 2012 4:11 PM BST
^^^^^ Moron
Report sintonian October 13, 2012 4:25 PM BST
66/1 skinner to go with the 40/1 skinner in the Arc last weekend. Bookies having it all their own way at the moment.
Report sintonian October 13, 2012 4:26 PM BST
Bazz, no good being wise after the event.
Report sintonian October 13, 2012 4:27 PM BST
Btw Bazz, stall 1 beat stall 7.
Report roobuck October 13, 2012 4:36 PM BST
It was always going to be the jockey's fault
Report aft October 13, 2012 4:49 PM BST
Congrats to anyone who backed the winner. One cannot begrudge him his victory under that weight!
Disappointed that Repeater didn't get the chance to show what he could do, but well done Aaim to Prosper (although you cost me 34k!).
Hope springs eternal!
Report Facts October 13, 2012 5:31 PM BST
Countrywide Flame


Btn by less disatnce than he was carried by the winner. Unlucky loser imo.
Report BJG October 13, 2012 5:37 PM BST
Thats 2 weeks in a row ive had the moral victor but the 2nd placed finisher Sad sigh
Report roobuck October 13, 2012 5:39 PM BST
I ended up getting the 10s on CF but imo the winner was always holding him - no complaints here
Report aft October 13, 2012 5:50 PM BST
He was beaten fair and square.
The penalty probably made the difference - if only he had got beaten at Chester!
As noted earlier few win Ces carrying a penalty.
Report Facts October 13, 2012 6:13 PM BST
he was pushed practically half the width of the track
Report bazzar October 13, 2012 7:26 PM BST
I did declare that I was NOT happy with the booking of SPENSER, read the effing posts MORONS.
Report liam the lips October 13, 2012 10:08 PM BST
Baz - u av bin getting progressively angry, confrontational + sadly tedious 4 a while now, whilst also struggling to come to terms with ...  you tube, equdia pro, pop ups ... the on/off button etc.
May i suggest some cheese herb Love
Report turnip turns October 13, 2012 10:27 PM BST
Crazy
Report liam the lips October 13, 2012 10:32 PM BST
Tongue Out
Report turnip turns October 13, 2012 10:38 PM BST
Mischief
Report liam the lips October 13, 2012 10:42 PM BST
TT how s trix ? u had alook at the munsta nat yet ? wot ya make of Quietly fancied  in the first time blinkers -fink there made 4 the yampy fukkk Crazy
Report bazzar October 13, 2012 10:56 PM BST
Put yourself in the position of a trainer who has trained a horse for 2 years or more and aims his horse at a big handicap, but overlooks which jockey he books, that jockey does his usual hold up excercise and in just 2 minutes he spoils ALL of yourwork and you are out of pocket BECAUSE YOU DID NOT EMPLOY THE BEST JOCKEY FOR THE JOB.
Report liam the lips October 13, 2012 11:06 PM BST
Said trainer deserves to fail after showing such ineptitude wudn't u say ?
Report roobuck October 14, 2012 9:32 AM BST
My darling Bazz

I know you struggle with video so link here to said horse's finest moment. You are quite right Pickard had the horse right up with the pace, didn't give the leaders a yard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MaEPgztUqA

Connections comments post race

Andrew Hollinshead, the trainer´s son and assistant: "His pedigree is laden with stamina so I never had any worriesthat he wouldn´t stay. He´s a better horse being held in a truly run race and things worked out beautifully for him."

By the way, first three home all drawn single figures - just a coincidence I guess
Report turnip turns October 14, 2012 9:35 AM BST
Liam,tricks good thanks,although bad day yestersCrazy will be steering clear of the munsta,looks a minefield tbhScared good luckers if you playCool  things good with chew ?
Report bazzar October 14, 2012 10:28 AM BST
ROOBUCK, don't call me your DARLING, I am nothing of the sort,the FACT that the first three were drawn in single figures, does not matter one jot to me and although I read FALLONS column in the WEEKENDER, I chose to ignore the tip on the grounds of the rise in weights from his first win, 25 lbs, but FALLON rode a splendid race and HE deserved the win,
SPENSER is however inflexible in his rides, several years ago he rode a horse for AIDEN O'BRIENS sister named SAOIRSE in our 1,000 guineas, now that is a straight mile, he met trouble in running 3 times, I sent an e-mail pointing out the fact and she replaced SPENSER with KINANE and won the IRISH 1.000 guineas.
2 and a quarter miles on ANY course gives a proper jockey, plenty of time and space to JOCKEY himself/herself into a challenging position.
ps, stick with liam the lips, pete the bloke, turned turtle and the headmaster, I DON'T want you.
Report bazzar October 14, 2012 10:38 AM BST
I haven't viewed the link yet, but you DELIBERATELY discard that which you wish to overlook,
I did not say that Pickard kept him up with the pace and as I was referring to the CES, I
said he would NOT have laid so far back and he would have claimed 3 lbs, the first part about laying out of his ground is MY opinion, the second part is a FACT he is a 3 lb
claimer and that would have been valuable.
I will view the link later, but you only help when you wish to make a point , hence my THICK post it was (unlike you) a genuine question  in the hope of gaining info about the AUSTRALIAN WALLET, I have given up on the excercise.
Report roobuck October 14, 2012 11:45 AM BST
Sorry darling
Report strontium October 14, 2012 12:47 PM BST
Surely that should be "Sorry DARLING"?
Report sintonian October 14, 2012 12:47 PM BST
Bazz, you ask people for info and links on here all the time,they oblige, and then you kick-off with them. That's pretty ungrateful and you probably wont get much more help from now.

And Aim To Prosper was 20lb higher,not 25. He deserved to win and Countrywide Wide was not unlucky in the slighest. If he cant win off his mark in the 80's compared to a horse on 107 then he does not deserve to.
Report bazzar October 14, 2012 12:56 PM BST
Carried 7 st 13 lbs FIRST TIME 9 st 10 lbs yesterday,
work it out.
I have thanked you in the past but you allow an argument with OTHERS to colour YOUR judgement, but thanks for the pointer, but you should learn to keep out of others quarrels, I don't join in with anyone else on here, just defend myself and my method of thinking, touchy idiot.
Report roobuck October 14, 2012 1:20 PM BST
So lets get this right.....

In 2005 you were able to send an email but 7 years later ( you don't hold a grudge for too long do you? )you are unable to do a websearch? Something smelly there if you ask me.

Oh and BTW I hope the trainer gave you a %
Report roobuck October 14, 2012 1:34 PM BST
And for the record Spencer rode him closer to the pace than Pickard did in the Plate. A mile to go ge was less than length behind the winner.

IMO he was produced perfectly, unfortunately simply not good enough on the day. Like you say it is not fact, just my opinion
Report bazzar October 14, 2012 1:39 PM BST
I, unlike you ROOBUCK have never claimed to be perfect, but I admit that my knowledge
around a computer is not what I would like it to be, but I don't go around crowing about my undoubted skill with the machine, if you would care to get an insight to we older people and a feeling of inadequacy around computers, ask your grandma or grandfather, they are probably younger than me but will claim they are scared of making mistakes, but there again there
is your helpful nature plus you said you were leaving the "playground" another lie!!!!!
As I said before you jumped in on a quarrel with someone else on here.
Sometime this week SPENSER will get away with his "PATIENTLY RIDDEN" ride which will convince himself that he is doing it right.
You have all forgotten  how MARTIN PIPE changed the training methods in these isles and
McCOY used to make ALL on many of his winners, but he dosen't do it as much now, but at least he is flexible.
Report sintonian October 14, 2012 1:47 PM BST
Nor does Roobuck, Bazz. This is all little farfetched now.

Not every horse should be ridden in the same way, i'm not sure you can get your head around this point. We're well aware of what Martin Pipe has done.

Anyway .. !
Report bazzar October 14, 2012 2:01 PM BST
Sintonian, you must realise that most training gallops consist of three horses, sometimes more , but not often, it IS the jockey who decides the kind of ride DURING the race,
they come back in after a win and some say that the horse likes to run between horses, but surely that is the jockeys preference NOT the horses, HUGHES says in one of his columns that his father "dessie" told him that MANY races are lost at the start, but still he leaves the stalls last in many races, so he has forgotten that good advice his father gave him, it is endemic now amongst jockeys who ride regularly in Britain.
Report roobuck October 14, 2012 2:08 PM BST
none of my grandparents are alive, neither are my parents for that matter and if there were they would both be older than you.

In the spirit of being helpful

1. Type into the address part of your web browser ( internet ) - www.youtube.com

2. at the top of the page that loads, next to the words You Tube, there is a box that allows you to type in words for a search

3. In that box type dalakhani

4. Next to that box is a symbol representing a magnifying glass ie search - single left click on this or hit 'enter' button on your keyboard

5. Click on the video of Dalakhani's arc that you want to watch - 2nd one down is best imo
Report bazzar October 14, 2012 2:10 PM BST
A  real thinking jockey is worth his/her weight in gold.
Lester, Scobie, and Willie were thinkers, Lester more than most,
the amount of times he was punished by the stewards has never been
topped, yet he learned from EVERY mistake, Willie was the first to go under the trees
at Ascot when the going got heavy, I remember that well because I backed RIDGEWOOD PEARL
like a certainty, she won at the breeders cup for me later.
McCOY and his determination drove him to think out his races beforehand.
Spenser just believes he is good and often proves the opposite.
Report bazzar October 14, 2012 2:13 PM BST
Even though the advice is given in a sarcastic manner, I thank you for the advice taken without rancour.
Report roobuck October 14, 2012 2:27 PM BST
Therein lies your problem bazz. You claim not to be confident around computers so I put things in simple terms not knowing what or wat not you understand. You call it sarcastic.

That is the very last time I help,  you miserable git
Report bazzar October 14, 2012 3:06 PM BST
At least I won't get carp dressed up as help.
Report sintonian October 14, 2012 4:25 PM BST
Unbelievable. Well, actually, it isn't. It's the norm.
Report liam the lips October 14, 2012 9:04 PM BST
Grin I fort u were slightly older than sint roo Laugh

got sint down 4 around 27, in light of ur last missive, allied to ur parents now officially pushung up daisies roo, ur now must b pushing 50, im 45 next month 4 the record Love
Report BJG October 14, 2012 9:09 PM BST
Old Fkers Cool
Report liam the lips October 14, 2012 9:20 PM BST
'only with age **** wisdom' - lips 2012
Report liam the lips October 14, 2012 9:21 PM BST
* cumz
Report roobuck October 14, 2012 9:33 PM BST
Dictionary definition of 'accident' is? Yeah I know in more ways than one...Grin
Report liam the lips October 14, 2012 9:42 PM BST
So is 50 spot on ??

Definition of 'accident'  =  Baz (1.01 to lay 4 az much as u want) Grin
Report bazzar October 14, 2012 9:49 PM BST
Wrong again TART, you were your parents mistake.
Report liam the lips October 14, 2012 9:57 PM BST
Now then , now then Grin
Report roobuck October 14, 2012 10:01 PM BST
Couple of years older than you liam if you must know Shocked
Report bazzar October 14, 2012 10:06 PM BST
Sounding just like SAVILLE, do you yodel nonsencically as well, idiot?
Report turnip turns October 14, 2012 10:07 PM BST
evening gentsMischief  53 hereCry
Report liam the lips October 14, 2012 10:26 PM BST
Ive never yodeled nonsencically, tho my friends may differ.

Dont remember Jimmy doin that either, prob more his victims imo Scared
Report bazzar October 15, 2012 12:40 PM BST
ROOBUCK, what you believe to be "righteous indignation" about my accusation of sarcasm,
I point you to your post of 14 OCT 13.20 where you decided to pick at my posts, looking
for something to bash me with (you do it regularly).
After I have tried to explain my lack of KNOWLEDGE and CONFIDENCE with computers, you
expect me to take you at face value, remember this I have been around longer than you and am aware that "LEOPARDS DO NOT CHANGE THEIR SPOTS", so from you attacking me to you trying to be helpful fills me with suspicion, I think you have proved my point, every time you asked a question I answered as accurately as I could , but without giving ANY of my methods away,
sometimes you could not accept my explanation because you are a person who believes that you are  clever enough to get the info you  want, YOU ARE NOT!!!!!!
Your post of 14th OCT 14.08 was written for others as if you were talking down to a exceedingly slow pupil, I sussed you out hence your "righteous indignation" and why does SINTONIAN believe that he is part of this quarrel, are you mates and you have asked for his support, I have NEVER had a cross word with Sintonian, yet he takes your side?
Report sintonian October 15, 2012 1:24 PM BST
Bazz, because I cant see what the issue is. I dont see anything in Roobuck's posts that are sarcastic or intended to have a pop at you. The tone of them only changed once you took umbrage. Before then they were fine.

Anyway, lets just leave it and look forwards to the Jumps season. Do you bet over Jumps or not?
Report bazzar October 15, 2012 1:39 PM BST
I do bet on jumps and use the same methods for both codes, for may years I did not need other peoples thoughts, but as this is my main interest and believing that people were kindly towards each other, the scales have fallen from my eyes, sniping at a person for holding an opinion, if I were BLAIR it would be justifiable, I posted on here a few years ago that I thought that the bookies ante-post rules of ALL IN ENTER OR NOT, the headbanger
was at the forefront of the argument against me, ROOBUCK joined in, surely LOGIC would tell any NORMAL person to question , HOW CAN A HORSE THAT HAS NOT BEEN ENTERED FOR A RACE BE ANYTHING BUT UNFAIR, just common everyday logic yet they argued that it was right, I am not interested in YOUR opinion because you may not give me a totally honest answer, choosing to butter me up, just the unadulterated truth is what I seek, I won't get it from ROOBUCK or THE HEADBANGER.
Report bazzar October 15, 2012 1:41 PM BST
Nelson lives on this forum, "I see no ships", do you get me now?
Report roobuck October 15, 2012 1:54 PM BST
I posted on here a few years ago that I thought that the bookies ante-post rules of ALL IN ENTER OR NOT, the headbanger
was at the forefront of the argument against me, ROOBUCK joined in


Liar. I was never part of that debate. I mentioned that slander before and yet you persist. If you seek the unadulterated truth, then please have the decency to speak it.

I accept that you have brought the worst out in me bazz - but I have never sworn AT you, you have told me to eff off at least three times.And on occassions I have been quick to pick up on your posts, usually because they are having a 'go' at a jockey or another poster. I do indeed find your posts aggressive and arrogant - I mean, inferring that your email to a trainer meant that a horse had a different jockey. All the talk of your brilliant bets in the past

However sintonian, whom I have never met, comes across as a most genuine poster bazz. He asks a perfectly open question and you accuse him of being disingenuous with absolutely no foundation.

Unbelievable ShockedLaugh
Report bazzar October 15, 2012 2:06 PM BST
P.O.
Report bazzar October 15, 2012 2:07 PM BST
Slander is spoken , libel is written.
Report BJG October 15, 2012 2:22 PM BST
Settle down children Cool
Report Facts October 15, 2012 4:24 PM BST
Oh dear

This forum has degenerated into the likes of other forums on Betfair i.e  Puerile,name calling and insult swapping tirades.This forum used to be for serious 'players' - not any more it would appear !
Report bazzar October 15, 2012 6:38 PM BST
Respect is a two way street.
Report RozelKid October 16, 2012 2:45 PM BST
Why is it that posters always deem it neccesasry to post negative critisis  about other peoples posts on these forums.


I've been coming onto these antepost forums for just over a year now becasue i respect and appreciate the majority of usual  posters who come on here, im of the opinion that there are  more of the "genuine racing fans" who take the game alot more seriously than your average posters on the main raing thread.


Doesnt it just make sense to just learn to just listen to each other then come to our own opinions, im not saying we cant comment or doing a bot of critical thinking, but cant we just all appreciate that if its does postivily...then it can actually help everyone.

Is there really a need to waste time by being negative about certain points within a post...that are actually pointless?


like i say, there is a group of approx 10 posters who frequent these antepost forums and we could actually start learning off each other ....it could actually come to a point where a group of posters can evaluate a race in a more professional manner.
Report RozelKid October 16, 2012 2:47 PM BST
jeez, my spelling is **** when typing quick, corrections :criticising and because
Report bazzar October 16, 2012 2:57 PM BST
ROZEL, in my case that is what I EXPECTED FROM THESE racing forums, but I believe that jealousy has arisen after some of my postings as regards historical bets, a poster using the nom de plume posted a thread headed AFTERTIMING, I have since been informed by someone that it was originally a fun excercise
which snowballed, part of the fun IS reminiscing the past glories, but inevitably it annoys some people especially those who are not as successful as others, a person on the other racing site has posted that he is now a better person because he no longer bets in small amounts and now looks down on other people on here, yet he has never attracted the venom that I have, I will still defend myself whenever and from whoever attacks me.
Report Facts October 16, 2012 3:02 PM BST
ffs man - chill out !!!
Report bazzar October 16, 2012 3:19 PM BST
FFS FACTS SHUT UP.
A remark like that started all this, a guy tells me I'm on the wrong thread and used the ffs that you used when I corrected him he SAID he would NOT poke his nose onto  another thread started by me, but I guess you may have concluded that he did NOT keep his word. I HAVE FINISHED NOW.
Report BJG October 16, 2012 3:20 PM BST
Crazy
Report bazzar October 16, 2012 3:35 PM BST
BJG, sorry for being part of those posters on here who ruined your thread.
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