You have to be somekind of nut to take 5/4 on Excelebration. He has been given an extended break since RA because he tried going toe-to-toe with Frankel. Ballydoyle did that deliberately, they didn't mess up,they wanted to know just how good Frankel is. And now they do!

I am a big fan of Excel and have posted numerous bets on him in the past two seasons on here, but you really have to desperate for a bet to take 5/4.

You can bash Most Improved, but before the Guineas people were saying on here he had no chance due to his foaling date of May. Well, we are now in August and he should be improving, like you'd expect for a lightly raced 3yo.

Does anyone have a market up for this yet?

If MC turns up id be amazed if she wasnt fav, her figs last time were amazing

The Big 0 - thanks for that tip-off...it looks a useful source


I'm surprised that Gosden's pair both go, and Buick has opted to ride Fallen For You while Dettori takes the mount on Elusive Kate.
I did say I preferred FFY of the pair (and I wouldn't have thought most did) but that's two weeks running Buick's choice has caused a raised eyebrow.

PS - the regularly inept Racing Post have Sunday's runners at fcukin' MUNICH but no sign of what is a quality renewal of the Jacques!

http://www.paris-turf.com/reunion/pid57-course.html?idcourse=819377

I see another two have dropped out (just the 11 run) but I'm struggling to remember who they were - I think Reply was one of them, so no great loss there.
It's unforgiveable in this day & age there are no prices available, and at the risk of being ridiculed by HRE, I wouldn't be surprised to see 4/1 the field - anyone else have any theories?

final decs are up on RP

Yes much as it would be nice to get 4/1 I think it far more likely to be 15/8 or 2/1, with MC and Excel possibly joint

Despite being a terrific renewal, there are so many question marks about the obvious ones to beat, Moonlight Cloud & Excelebration (which everyone is aware of) that I can't help but push them out on my tissue - I'm playing 'Devil's Advocate' in being the bookie and I figure there are plenty to beat them with!

I'll probably be laughed at but I don't have Immortal Verse in the first SIX in my betting!
A return to last year's form of this race wins it for her in my view, though it's a really big 'IF' after a poor performance over C&D a fortnight ago - that's where my money's going as she'll be great value, but I'm far from confident.

I don't see how anyone can be so dogmatic about this race, and I'd suggest Elusive Kate looks to have everything in her favour, though if it was Buick's decision to partner Fallen For You (and not at Gosden's request) that throws yet another spanner in the works - Dettori should dictate from the front and get things his own way.

O'Brien's Power is the only notable defector from yesterday and this race really does whet the appetite for the aficionado - a decent betting angle could be to lay anything that's odds-on for the frame, as they're all in with a shot!

If they were joints then price possible 9/4. I actually don't want 4/1 as that will make everything else quite tight and depending on the price I want to back MI.

Difference of opinion here, but if Excelebration is 4/1 that would be value and defo worth a saver.

At the end of the day the prices will be what the prices will be and I will have a bet ( or not ) accordingly.

Whatever it should be a great race and just a pity I won't be able to see it

Naval, you are spot on. I wouldn't take anything less than 3/1 for Excel. Seriously wrong to have him as 5/4.

Mooonlight Cloud will be Fav based on her win last time out and home advantage.


Double figs for MI ? Christ, I would remortgage for that.

Sint - it's all about opinions and I might be well out, but I have Most Improved at least at 10/1 shot!

What were you thinking he'd be?

I know he posted a faster time than Fallen For You over the same C&D, but the filly impressed me much more, and Most Improved would be a surprise to me if he won this - good luck if you're on

No one is on yet Naval.

Cowardly bookies.

The world waits for liam's prices.......but most importantly his pick

Liam - we're not a million miles away but I tried to make my book close to 100% whereas you are a tight arse
ALL mine are longer!

It's very difficult to price the Gosden duo, and although I prefer Fallen For You (better long term prospect) Elusive Kate ticks more boxes and SHOULD be shorter - I'm intrigued as to who decided the riding arrangements, and Gosden might have been influenced by Dettori (riding from the front) and also that he partnered her in the Falmouth.

A decent effort though squire

Yep, i like Immortal V at the prices, it was defo a sighter for this last time and she's got a back end campaign planned.  EK makes it with cityscape siting close(fancy summink picks them off). Just dont like Excell full stop.Buicks mount looks to be a fast improving filly, cudnt put anyone of her, wheras Gold Lilac doesnt. That leaves Most improved, IV who will both love a rapid pace and Moonlight(not publicly proved over 1m).tho her breeding and run style offer plenty of hope. The 3 rags would need an act of god to oblige.

Bazzar - here are the dec's...on the RP site:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=562277&r_date=2012-08-12#raceTabs=sc_

Baz u go in via the professianals tab, then races and scroll down to decs.

Thanks a LOT Liam, worked perfectly, feel much better now.

sint currently talking to his financial advisor on remortgage options.....only to find PP allow him £5 e/w

I would take that price but unable to play with PP and anyway would want to wait until a few more price up. On the whole the prices seem about right thought the differential between Excel and IV is too big - if liam was keen on her at 10s heaven knows what he'll do at 16s?

Sint - I think that price could well be beaten...maybe you should have waited a bit longer.
You'd be gutted if Ladbrokes were 16's

HRE - maybe the choice was made for him?

PS - you did well predicting who'd go and who'd defect...how did you find out?