Forums

Horse Antepost

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
fabracetrends
10 Jul 12 20:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Apr 12
| Topic/replies: 18 | Blogger: fabracetrends's blog
The Grand Prix de Paris is a  Group 1 Race for 3 year olds over 1 1/2 miles and takes place at Longchamp. It is traditionally run, every year, on Bastille Day , July 14th , a Bank Holiday in France.
Key Trends -
Look For Runners -
- that finished 1st or 2nd or ran in the French Derby last time out
- who have won over at least 10 furlongs
- who have won a race at no higher than Group 3 class
- that ran in the French Derby but finished outside the top 3
- that have had 3 or 4 runs this season
- trained by Andre Fabre
- who start at 5/1 or under
- who won the Prix du Lys
Pause Switch to Standard View Grand Prix de Paris Longchamp 14th July
Show More
Loading...
Report Foetus July 11, 2012 1:04 AM BST
Are the acceptors anywhere online to view?
I've tried & failed to track them down, though I do believe Kesampour is declared.

He looks a promising stayer, and is on my St.Leger short-list.
Report sintonian July 11, 2012 8:41 AM BST
Imperial Monarch 6/4 fav with PP
Report soldieroffortune July 11, 2012 11:12 PM BST
All the best to him on Saturday Grin
Report mr_sykes July 11, 2012 11:24 PM BST
small field but ground should be ok for him,see Fabre has horse called Last Train in it,know nothing about him other than he's by Rail Link who won same race on way to Niel and Arc few yrs back,anyone who has won race 11 times has to be respected
Report Navel-Gazer July 13, 2012 4:11 PM BST
I'm not saying Imperial Monarch won't win but comparing his misfortune with Saint Baudolino's run is bananas!
Fabre's colt was murdered in the French Derby, and he still finished second.

Such eye-catching losers have a habit of disappointing, and it could be worth looking elsewhere.

I'm pondering laying the front pair as well as Main Sequence (far from convinced he's group one despite his Derby second, and the Shantaram form) so losses (if any) would be minimal in having 'the field' running for me.

I saw the betting for this on ATR;
Imperial Monarch 6/4
Saint Baudolino  5/2
Main Sequence    5/2

At those prices, the figures work out at 99% Shocked which in English means you're only gonna lose £1 for a possible £100 total liability!

That just cannot be right...having the rest of them (6 outsiders) running for you, and in effect laying a 1.01 shot! Surprised

Has anyone got some updated betting for this, as the ATR show has to be nonsense.
Report The Headmaster July 13, 2012 4:55 PM BST
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/international-racing/europe/...
Report Navel-Gazer July 13, 2012 4:56 PM BST
Thanks mate...that's more like a normal book - I think that ATR show was their best buddies (big three) taking the piss!
Report sintonian July 13, 2012 9:21 PM BST
2/1 + on here.

Are AOB's horses running well .. have not done much at Newmarket this week.
Report El Apache July 14, 2012 7:12 AM BST
AOBs horses running **** all week in Ireland as well.

Leave this to the French master Mr Fabre.
Report sintonian July 14, 2012 11:08 AM BST
Decided to take 15/8 about IM Shocked

Probably a short price given he is on foreign soil and there are doubts about stable form, but there is a strong suspicion he is a pretty good horse based on his Sandown win and his luckless run in the French Derby. Just hope Joseph doesnt make a mess of it.
Report EastLower Gooner July 14, 2012 3:01 PM BST
will be interesting to see how IM runs then....if he flops then I'll forget about Treasure Beach later in the Man O War.
Report mac99 July 14, 2012 5:53 PM BST
GRAND PRIX DE PARIS   2 points ew main sequence  5/1 L
Report mac99 July 14, 2012 6:03 PM BST
7.15 Hamilton

1 point e/w  Colonel Mak  8/1 boil sport
Report mac99 July 14, 2012 6:11 PM BST
last two postings wrong thread .....ignoreConfused
Report Navel-Gazer July 14, 2012 6:15 PM BST
I can't say I'm confident of the outcome of this race, but one thing I am sure of, is that Imperial Monarch is a very false price at 11/8.

You can back the next three in the betting at a similar combined SP to O'Brien's colt, and I think he represents appalling value with quite a few unexposed & unknown quantities in this - he might well win, but he's a definite LAY for me.

I've had a bash at Hard Dream (18's on here) as he didn't have the smoothest of runs in the French Derby but still stayed on well, and there are question marks against the entire field - he may be value.
Report sintonian July 14, 2012 6:25 PM BST
He is 7/4 on here.
Report sintonian July 14, 2012 6:27 PM BST
maybe not, you are right 11/8 on here ..
Report soldieroffortune July 14, 2012 6:57 PM BST
sintonian that was an absolutely superb performance from him there! Grin
Report EastLower Gooner July 14, 2012 6:58 PM BST
now for the Beach :)
Report bazzar July 14, 2012 6:59 PM BST
Here we go again, guessing games, what won?
Report unclepuncle July 14, 2012 7:04 PM BST
Imperial Monarch
Report Navel-Gazer July 14, 2012 7:04 PM BST
SoF - agreed squire...the form book will say short-head, but that was a really tenacious display.

Maybe the conspiracy theorists were right about Aidan withdrawing him from the Irish Derby, paving the way for Camelot.
Report bazzar July 14, 2012 7:07 PM BST
Thanks uncle.
Report mr_sykes July 14, 2012 7:08 PM BST
great performance by IM,long overdue grp1 for him,long train ran very well too,interesting that he never ran as a 2 yr old like his sire rail link,could be one to keep an eye on
Report The Headmaster July 14, 2012 7:15 PM BST
Last Train the one for me. Last time he finishes behind Imperial Monarch imo.  Roll on October.
Report sintonian July 14, 2012 7:18 PM BST
cheers Sof. He looked short but it had to be done!

Shades of Giant Causeway the way he battled back after being headed.
Report Navel-Gazer July 14, 2012 7:20 PM BST
IM doesn't deserve to lose it (though if so, I would win a few quid Devil) but these French stewards can be unpredictable Plain
Report sintonian July 14, 2012 7:22 PM BST
Oh dear. My BF accoutn not credited yet .. Stewards still ..
Report mr_sykes July 14, 2012 7:36 PM BST
hope youre right HM backed him at fancy prices for Arc 2 days ago,going the right way,ya'd imagine Prix Niel will be next
Report sintonian July 14, 2012 7:36 PM BST
He keeps it. Dont know if im biased but genuinely cannot see a single thing he did wrong. It must have been the places they were sorting out.
Report soldieroffortune July 14, 2012 7:45 PM BST
Shades of the Giant indeed sintonian Happy
Report roobuck July 14, 2012 7:53 PM BST
Well played IM backers - but Main Sequence was clearly the best horse in that race imo. A clear boost to the Camelot form that until tonight I thought was very questionable
Report sintonian July 14, 2012 8:17 PM BST
I think he was still a bit green in front Roo. A couple of pacemakers and a target for him to aim at next time should be right up his street.

Main Sequence clearly unlucky though for sure.
Report roobuck July 15, 2012 10:49 AM BST
I agree that it was a very good performance sint and maybe has the greater long term potential - but yesterday the best horse was Main Sequence imo and would have gone past IM with a clear passage and at a rate that would not have allowed IM to respond.

Dangerous to disagree with HM but I would have IM to confirm form with Last Train
Report unclepuncle July 15, 2012 11:08 AM BST
Haven't seen the race so can't comment on how unlucky he was but I can't understand why Main Sequence, as an English based horse, wasn't aimed at the KG - always used to be a great race for 3 year olds?
Report roobuck July 15, 2012 11:17 AM BST
Cannot disagree with that uncle but they all finished in a bit of heap ( granted it was a French race ) and overall just don't think the 3yos are all that this year. Connections probably saw this as a better opportunity for a GP1 win
Report tinkler July 15, 2012 6:01 PM BST
Liked the way IM quickened clear then held on through sheer guts and desire not to let anything past ,despite it looking like
his stamina ran out in the soft ground. Not sure he would have let the unlucky in running Main Seq past him.
They finished in a heap and the bare form looks poor for a group 1, but IM probably has the right  attributes to do well in
the American Grade 1's at 1 1/2m.
Race avaiable to view @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqGdpOw9ENI
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com