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fabracetrends
10 Jul 12 20:44
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Date Joined: 13 Apr 12
| Topic/replies: 18 | Blogger: fabracetrends's blog
The Grand Prix de Paris is a  Group 1 Race for 3 year olds over 1 1/2 miles and takes place at Longchamp. It is traditionally run, every year, on Bastille Day , July 14th , a Bank Holiday in France.
Key Trends -
Look For Runners -
- that finished 1st or 2nd or ran in the French Derby last time out
- who have won over at least 10 furlongs
- who have won a race at no higher than Group 3 class
- that ran in the French Derby but finished outside the top 3
- that have had 3 or 4 runs this season
- trained by Andre Fabre
- who start at 5/1 or under
- who won the Prix du Lys

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Replies: 37
By:
Foetus
When: 11 Jul 12 01:04
Are the acceptors anywhere online to view?
I've tried & failed to track them down, though I do believe Kesampour is declared.

He looks a promising stayer, and is on my St.Leger short-list.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Jul 12 08:41
Imperial Monarch 6/4 fav with PP
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 11 Jul 12 23:12
All the best to him on Saturday Grin
By:
mr_sykes
When: 11 Jul 12 23:24
small field but ground should be ok for him,see Fabre has horse called Last Train in it,know nothing about him other than he's by Rail Link who won same race on way to Niel and Arc few yrs back,anyone who has won race 11 times has to be respected
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 13 Jul 12 16:11
I'm not saying Imperial Monarch won't win but comparing his misfortune with Saint Baudolino's run is bananas!
Fabre's colt was murdered in the French Derby, and he still finished second.

Such eye-catching losers have a habit of disappointing, and it could be worth looking elsewhere.

I'm pondering laying the front pair as well as Main Sequence (far from convinced he's group one despite his Derby second, and the Shantaram form) so losses (if any) would be minimal in having 'the field' running for me.

I saw the betting for this on ATR;
Imperial Monarch 6/4
Saint Baudolino  5/2
Main Sequence    5/2

At those prices, the figures work out at 99% Shocked which in English means you're only gonna lose £1 for a possible £100 total liability!

That just cannot be right...having the rest of them (6 outsiders) running for you, and in effect laying a 1.01 shot! Surprised

Has anyone got some updated betting for this, as the ATR show has to be nonsense.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 13 Jul 12 16:55
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/international-racing/europe/fra-longchamp/18:50
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 13 Jul 12 16:56
Thanks mate...that's more like a normal book - I think that ATR show was their best buddies (big three) taking the piss!
By:
sintonian
When: 13 Jul 12 21:21
2/1 + on here.

Are AOB's horses running well .. have not done much at Newmarket this week.
By:
El Apache
When: 14 Jul 12 07:12
AOBs horses running **** all week in Ireland as well.

Leave this to the French master Mr Fabre.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jul 12 11:08
Decided to take 15/8 about IM Shocked

Probably a short price given he is on foreign soil and there are doubts about stable form, but there is a strong suspicion he is a pretty good horse based on his Sandown win and his luckless run in the French Derby. Just hope Joseph doesnt make a mess of it.
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 14 Jul 12 15:01
will be interesting to see how IM runs then....if he flops then I'll forget about Treasure Beach later in the Man O War.
By:
mac99
When: 14 Jul 12 17:53
GRAND PRIX DE PARIS   2 points ew main sequence  5/1 L
By:
mac99
When: 14 Jul 12 18:03
7.15 Hamilton

1 point e/w  Colonel Mak  8/1 boil sport
By:
mac99
When: 14 Jul 12 18:11
last two postings wrong thread .....ignoreConfused
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 14 Jul 12 18:15
I can't say I'm confident of the outcome of this race, but one thing I am sure of, is that Imperial Monarch is a very false price at 11/8.

You can back the next three in the betting at a similar combined SP to O'Brien's colt, and I think he represents appalling value with quite a few unexposed & unknown quantities in this - he might well win, but he's a definite LAY for me.

I've had a bash at Hard Dream (18's on here) as he didn't have the smoothest of runs in the French Derby but still stayed on well, and there are question marks against the entire field - he may be value.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jul 12 18:25
He is 7/4 on here.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jul 12 18:27
maybe not, you are right 11/8 on here ..
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 14 Jul 12 18:57
sintonian that was an absolutely superb performance from him there! Grin
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 14 Jul 12 18:58
now for the Beach :)
By:
bazzar
When: 14 Jul 12 18:59
Here we go again, guessing games, what won?
By:
unclepuncle
When: 14 Jul 12 19:04
Imperial Monarch
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 14 Jul 12 19:04
SoF - agreed squire...the form book will say short-head, but that was a really tenacious display.

Maybe the conspiracy theorists were right about Aidan withdrawing him from the Irish Derby, paving the way for Camelot.
By:
bazzar
When: 14 Jul 12 19:07
Thanks uncle.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 14 Jul 12 19:08
great performance by IM,long overdue grp1 for him,long train ran very well too,interesting that he never ran as a 2 yr old like his sire rail link,could be one to keep an eye on
By:
The Headmaster
When: 14 Jul 12 19:15
Last Train the one for me. Last time he finishes behind Imperial Monarch imo.  Roll on October.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jul 12 19:18
cheers Sof. He looked short but it had to be done!

Shades of Giant Causeway the way he battled back after being headed.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 14 Jul 12 19:20
IM doesn't deserve to lose it (though if so, I would win a few quid Devil) but these French stewards can be unpredictable Plain
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jul 12 19:22
Oh dear. My BF accoutn not credited yet .. Stewards still ..
By:
mr_sykes
When: 14 Jul 12 19:36
hope youre right HM backed him at fancy prices for Arc 2 days ago,going the right way,ya'd imagine Prix Niel will be next
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jul 12 19:36
He keeps it. Dont know if im biased but genuinely cannot see a single thing he did wrong. It must have been the places they were sorting out.
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 14 Jul 12 19:45
Shades of the Giant indeed sintonian Happy
By:
roobuck
When: 14 Jul 12 19:53
Well played IM backers - but Main Sequence was clearly the best horse in that race imo. A clear boost to the Camelot form that until tonight I thought was very questionable
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jul 12 20:17
I think he was still a bit green in front Roo. A couple of pacemakers and a target for him to aim at next time should be right up his street.

Main Sequence clearly unlucky though for sure.
By:
roobuck
When: 15 Jul 12 10:49
I agree that it was a very good performance sint and maybe has the greater long term potential - but yesterday the best horse was Main Sequence imo and would have gone past IM with a clear passage and at a rate that would not have allowed IM to respond.

Dangerous to disagree with HM but I would have IM to confirm form with Last Train
By:
unclepuncle
When: 15 Jul 12 11:08
Haven't seen the race so can't comment on how unlucky he was but I can't understand why Main Sequence, as an English based horse, wasn't aimed at the KG - always used to be a great race for 3 year olds?
By:
roobuck
When: 15 Jul 12 11:17
Cannot disagree with that uncle but they all finished in a bit of heap ( granted it was a French race ) and overall just don't think the 3yos are all that this year. Connections probably saw this as a better opportunity for a GP1 win
By:
tinkler
When: 15 Jul 12 18:01
Liked the way IM quickened clear then held on through sheer guts and desire not to let anything past ,despite it looking like
his stamina ran out in the soft ground. Not sure he would have let the unlucky in running Main Seq past him.
They finished in a heap and the bare form looks poor for a group 1, but IM probably has the right  attributes to do well in
the American Grade 1's at 1 1/2m.
Race avaiable to view @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqGdpOw9ENI
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