John Smith's Cup Saturday 14th July

My thoughts exactly and naturally I wish you luck. Had a decent bet at 14s also.

Area Fifty One for me. Even with his 5lb penalty he's officially 3lbs 'well-in'. I know connections think he's better on fast ground, but it was pretty soft when he ran a blinder behind Navajo Chief at the course on his penultimate outing.

Mijhaar and Media Hype look the 2 most likely winners to me. Mijhaar probably should have won at Ascot,
he virtually bolted going to post losing valuable energy and then pulled too hard in the race, to race
prominently in a race that favoured hold up horses. Track, big field and going look ideal for him.
His attitude is questionable though and he could pull hard again. Has a favourites chance imo est
true price 9/2 ,he's never traded above that so no bet.
Media hype has solid form including a second soft at Haydock were Old newton cup winner Number Theory
came 3rd and a good York win. Unsuited by fast going on his latest run . The icing on the cake for this
horse is the lowish weight he's set to carry . Est true price 8/1 ,so backed him, present best price 12/1.

Quite liking Alkimos myself. Didn't get the run of the race at Ascot behind Cambourne stuck on the inside. Can easily forgive a few poor Meydan runs, still unexposed. Don't see the Media Hype thing myself- trouble in-running overdone last time, handicapper catching up?

Live a mile from the course , standing water on the knavesmire, more rain forecast been p1ssing down tonight
would be very suprised if they race at York friday or saturday .

Mijhaar for me also, though I probably should have taken the 9/2 so will just wait now.

He's only had 6 runs and I dont see a problem with his attitude at all. When he has run in handicaps so far he has always been conceding weight to progressive sorts like Fulgur and Gatewood.

There is no doubt Mijhaar is talented but I agree he does need to settle better to fulfill his potential. He has an obvious chance but far too short at 9/2, 4/1 to consider given those concerns especially as, though he will appreciate the ground, they are likely to be going a stride slower in the projected conditions

Absolutley tanking it down here in York at the moment

Thanks for the weather update, goat.

Any improvement in the weather, goat?

anyone know the story with Media Hype with it being entered in the 3-45 at York tomorrow , is it a precaution or do they intend to run in this instead of the JSGC ?

Media Hype, got the impression from trainer quotes, only entered Friday in case didn't make cut for John Smith Cup. Google Media Hype and trainer and you'll find relevant article. Can't remember where I seen it.

^^ That is correct

Getting excited liam? Connections sound very optimistic, may have a saver on him

Very much so Roo, dots up 4 me. This has been the plan 4 quite a while

See he's also got a very decent draw - good luck though obviously hoping Kirthill pips him

Yeah dunno if the draw is that important on the likely ground, course form is tho, as is a sexy mark

Good luck too mate, gonna be a busy day !

Trends for the past 10 runnings below (http://tinyurl.com/czpyyua). It's such a competitive handicap that it appears getting a few pounds in hand can make all the difference as the last 6 winners of this race have all been ridden by claimers. Area Fifty One ticks most of the boxes and should go well if handling the ground:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-2-13
4yo: 7-19-84
5yo: 2-5-49
6yo+: 0-4-44
Horses aged 3 or 4: 8-21-97
Horses aged 5+: 2-9-93
8 of the last 9 winners were aged 3 or 4, with the one exception being a 5yo who was a close 2nd the previous year.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-1-22
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-13-56
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-11-79
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-5-33
The last 6 winners carried less than 9-0
Horses carrying a penalty: 1-3-19
Top Weight: 08740000008202 (0-3-14)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 102 or more: 1-5-27
Horses rated 90 to 101: 9-19-125
Horses rated 89 or less: 0-6-38
9 of 10 winners were officially rated between 90 and 101 from 65.8% of the total runners. Only horse rated above 101 to win this since 2002 was Fly Clarets in 2008, who had finished 2nd the previous year and won under a 5lb penalty.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had 1 to 4 turf starts that season
8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time out (2 exceptions unplaced in Wolferton H'cap)
10 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on one of their last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their previous 2 starts
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out
8 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (2 exceptions had been placed on their last 2 starts)
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 2F (1 exception had won over 1M 1F & was having first try at this trip while other was placed over CD on previous start)
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or 3 level (1 exception finished 2nd in listed handicap, another placed in 2 handicaps worth over 50K and other had won last 4 starts but yet to run higher than class 4)
0 of 10 winners had won a race above class 2
4 of 10 winners had won or placed over this CD (5 of 6 others were having first run over this CD)

Other Races
Dubai Duty Free Millennium Millionaire H’cap winner (Stand To Reason): 00302 (0-2-5)
Kilkerran Cup winner (Scrapper Smith): 3 (0-1-1)
Network Sales & Marketing Handicap winner (Licence To Till): 4 (0-1-1)
totescoop6 HBLB Handicap winner (Kirthill): 93 (0-1-2)
Suburban Handicap winner (Right Step): 20 (0-1-2)
Zetland Gold Cup winner (Danadana): 00507200 (0-1-8)
sportingbet.com Stakes winner (Media Hype): 8000060 (0-0-7)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Wolferton H’cap last time out, finishing 627
3 of 10 winners ran in DFS handicap at Doncaster in Sept, finishing 452
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cambridgeshire the previous season, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in the Paddock Package Handicap, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in M&S Money Handicap at Chester, finishing 04

Trainers
Richard Fahey (3-4-27) has won the race three times in the past 10 years, including 2 of the last 5 renewals.
Tom Tate (0-1-3), Luca Cumani (0-1-4), Jeremy Noseda (0-1-5), Jim Goldie (0-1-5), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-5) and Mark Johnston (0-1-8) have all saddled 1 runner to make the frame since 2002.
Mark Prescott (0-0-1) has saddled 3 runners since 2000, gaining 1 win and 1 place.

Jockeys
Claimers: 6-3-39
Non-claiming jockeys: 4-27-151
Amazingly the last 6 winners have all been ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance.
If we restrict the search to claimers riding horses priced 16/1 or shorter, their record becomes an impressive 6-3-17.

Draw
Horses drawn 1-10: 4-17-100
Horses drawn 11 or higher: 6-13-90
No very strong trends to be gleaned from the draw over the past 10 years.

Racing Tactics
7 of 10 winners were held up (both 5yo winners led throughout)

Price
No major trend to be seen from the prices. 5 of 10 winners were priced between 5/2 and 7/1, the other 5 went off between 11/1 and 20/1.
Favourites (2-4-13) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 1.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 3 or 4
•    Carrying less than 9-0
•    Officially rated 90 to 101
•    Had 1 to 4 turf starts in 2012
•    Finished in first 4 in a class 3 or higher last time (or unplaced in Wolferton)
•    Finished 1st or 2nd on one of last two starts
•    Won a race this season
•    Won at class 2 or 3 level (but no higher)
•    Won over 1M 2F
•    Tends to be held up
•    Ridden by a claimer (and priced 16/1 or shorter)
•    Trained by Richard Fahey

kirthill down to 10s now,fair play to ladbrokes they did lay the 14s for a fair time.

Decided to flip allegiances and go for Media Hype. I am big fan of Mijhaar, backed him last time out at Ascot, but he is always conceding weight in these handicaps which im not a fan of. Maybe the trainer should have stuck a claimer on board as they seem to have a great record in the race.  So Media Hype it is. Why is Gibbons riding for the first time ?

sint - i'm with you there. mijjhaar is very keen and not sure a hood will help him. backed media hype, return to an easier surface should suit. don't know why gibbons is riding but definitely a positive as don't rate makin at all.

I get the impression that Gibbons is a man quite a few Northern trainers go for when the money is down and backs up the very positive noises connections were making earlier in the week.

I just dont like it when connections change jockey for a big race like this. Unless it is a top jockey, like Moore,Spencer etc then I see it as a negative. We'll soon find out.

Pivotman for me. Will relish the ground and me thinks has been laid out for the race since front running 2nd to kirthill at Newbury last year.Big ranghy colt- definately better 4yo. Has a 5lb turnaround with the winner and although was tailed off/allowed to come home on his own after being held up, all his best peformences have come after really poor runs last time out.Martin Dwyer rode him when 2nd in the big 1m4f Hcp for 3yo's at Goodwood last year and stable in good form. good luck all

And anyway they had to find another jockey as Makin is riding for his boss at Newbury

last 6 winners all ridden by claimers, so it's one of these 4
Fair Trade
Navajo Chief
Memory Cloth
Area Fifty One

FFS !!!!!!

yep 14s on a 6 shot,and pulled out with spread plate.
easy to say but must have gone close in that.

Unlucky chaps.

Think the money came on track because Fallon had ridden the previous two winners.

Not sure anything would have beaten the winner, hacked up.

Mijhaar I hope is OK.

Perhaps not sint, but like to think he would have been in the mix - perils of AP I guess

remember non runner/no bet with books after final decs.

would also apply to prince of joanna.

Sure Roo, total speculation on my part really. He'll probably be aimed at Glorious Goodwood now ..

Every sympathy for those who backed Kirthill AP - bad variance.
Winner won well but doubt he's as good as this race made him appear.Bit disappointed with Media Hype who looked very one paced before
keeping on late on, possibly the drying ground went against him.

Yeah agree. Looks like he is much better when there is considerable ease in the ground.

I would back him on good, just needs 12F now imo

Live a mile from the course , standing water on the knavesmire, more rain forecast been p1ssing down tonight
would be very suprised if they race at York friday or saturday


York Sat Going : GOOD (Good to Soft in places)

had a bit of trouble getting my kirthill money back.
firstly was told it was not a non runner(not on their screens),then customer services said it was ante post and a loser.
i was not having this,so luckily the girl in the shop tried for a third time and i won my case.
race was non runner/no bet from 10-15 on the thursday.

if it helps anyone just be carefull of your bets in the future,or you might be leaving your dough with the bookies.

these things are so basic to bookmaking that it's hard not to believe they're trying it on....*****

every dog as is day.