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Eclipse - So you think - Will he be declared to run?

propunter1

05 Jul 12 09:12

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Date Joined: 22 Dec 05

| Topic/replies: 3,612 | Blogger: propunter1's blog

I think he will not be declared to run in this race. It's too much a risk for coolmore to run him and loose.
He is one of most overrated horse running at the moment.

I finished my punting in this market (Eclipse) and I am green on all except 'So you think'. I am big green on Farhh.

DYOR

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Replies: 23

By:

tinkler When: 05 Jul 12 10:05

Estimated % chance of not running 6% (picks up an injury/illness or very soft ground)
" " of running 94%

By:

geoff m When: 05 Jul 12 10:06

They have nothing to lose.
If he gets beat he will end up with a "Canford Cliffs" type injury
If he wins alls well

By:

geoff m When: 05 Jul 12 10:08

altho someone just put up on main forum hes a N/R lame!

By:

The Headmaster When: 05 Jul 12 10:14

SYT - OUT (Not for the reasons given above though!)

By:

duncan idaho When: 05 Jul 12 10:18

least surprising thing since it rained yesterday....when everyone fell for AOB's spin at Ascot, a defection always seemed likely imo

By:

sintonian When: 05 Jul 12 10:39

really,Duncan? I hope you layed the balls off it at Evens.

By:

propunter1 When: 05 Jul 12 10:53

I read this market perfectly (Unlike next tottenham manager market). You win some you loose some!

The Coral Eclipse opposition is very good - Coolmore couldn't risk him loosing just before retiring him to stud at Australia.

They have to give an acceptable excuse like lameness.

DYOR

By:

geoff m When: 05 Jul 12 11:12

LAST YEAR'S hero So You Think has been denied the chance to win Saturday's Coral-Eclipse for a second time after he was found to be lame in his stable on Thursday morning.

Amazing how these things happen on the morning of declaration
Uncanny innit.

By:

unclepuncle When: 05 Jul 12 11:17

Bizarre - maybe for once Ballydoyle are telling the truth

By:

elisjohn When: 05 Jul 12 11:43

lame thursday morning, yet drifted on here from around 1.80 to 2.12 since tuesday

By:

elisjohn When: 05 Jul 12 11:44

ps i had inkling he wouldnt run, and pissed off now that i didnt bloody lay him

By:

Ruprecht When: 05 Jul 12 15:42

With regard to AP bets...if he's declared in the 'day of the race' market, will people get their dough back?
Doesn't it matter at all that he's not in the declarations?

Just how low a price did he hit in the win AND place markets?

By:

geoff m When: 05 Jul 12 15:58

He aint declared in day of race market. Even if he was and he didnt run youve done your dough in the antepost market.
Lowest was around 1.8 ish in win market

By:

Ruprecht When: 05 Jul 12 16:03

Thanks Geoff - ante-post is a minefield for backers

By:

geoff m When: 05 Jul 12 16:46

It is for layers if theyve laid anything other than SYT!!

By:

sintonian When: 05 Jul 12 16:53

Im on Farhh from last week. Drawn stall 10. Dont really see the issue with that.

Nathaniel making his seasonal debut and is better over 12f imo.

Bonfire has the handy 3yo allowance but not convinced he is a Group 1 horse

Cityscape big chance if returning to Dubai form.

Crackerjack King no idea about ..

Monterosso good but better on synthetic ..

By:

geoff m When: 05 Jul 12 17:16

Im with the class act Nathaniel.
Just need a bit of rain.

By:

Aurelius Maximus When: 05 Jul 12 19:45

Monterosso is far too big in my eyes. My thoughts:

1) Stuffed the previous hot pot favourite and subsequent 2 x Group 1 winner So You Think at Meydan on World Cup night (Game on Dude & Royal Delta also won since).

2) Don't buy that he will need the run. Was pulled out of the Brigadier Gerard & the Coronation Cup at the last minute - I think he will be further forward than most people think.

3) Don't buy that he is no good on turf. Notably won the Dubai City of Gold (Grp 2) & King Edward VII (Grp 2) in his 3yo & 4yo careers. Had earlier won Handicaps at Newmarket & Ripon.

4) Has decent Group 1 record (Contested 4 times, 1 win, 1 place & 2 unplaced efforts). This is better than some in the field.

5) Can sit handily and will be suited by the stiff track & likely ground conditions.

All in all, think he offers some tasty value at the odds.

Also expect Farhh to run well but he is too short.

Good luck all, looks like a cracking race.

By:

Sir When: 05 Jul 12 19:46

And Stoute took Charlton House out because he knew it could not beat So you think

By:

Aurelius Maximus When: 05 Jul 12 19:55

Sir, I dont follow?

By:

tinkler When: 05 Jul 12 20:12

Very dodgy imo . The % chance of an injury happening 3% the % chance of it suddenly coming up on the morning of declarations 3%. 33/1 x 33/1 = 1089/1 double.
% chance of the horse actually being lame enough not to be able to run 0.01 % (if you look hard enough you'll find a problem with any horse).
Good call propunter.

By:

geoff m When: 05 Jul 12 20:41

must have pulled a muscle turning over in his sleep.
Fancy that happening just hours b4 declaration.

By:

elisjohn When: 05 Jul 12 20:56

the great coolmore empire ,

, dont worry the great camelot will win the leger, triple crown winner and acclaimed as a true great