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jamesp
28 Jun 12 06:31
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 2,408 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
The 1000 Guineas used to be a good 'trends race', with most winners of the race having already shown smart form in pattern company as juveniles.  However, in the last four years it's fair to say that only Special Duty followed the long-established trend.  The other three most recent winners of the race were certainly hard to pick on juvenile form: Ghanaati showed considerable promise when winning her maiden easily on her second start but was never asked to compete in pattern company at two; Blue Bunting progressed nicely to win a Listed race over a mile on her third start but was always expected to be a middle distance performer at three; Homecoming Queen failed to win any of her first seven races but broke her duck at the eighth attempt in a nursery off a mark of 72 (the first time she had raced on soft ground) before showing considerable improvement to finish a close second in Group 3 company and then winning a Listed race.  Frustratingly for antepost punters the two most recent winners were stable companions of much more strongly fancied fillies that either missed the race through injury (White Moonstone) or for various reasons failed to make the grade on the day (Maybe).  It is with some trepidation, therefore, that I open a new thread on the 2013 renewal of the 1000 Guineas.

Here's a list of the top fillies so far this season (up to 22 June, with their Racing Post Ratings, Timeform rating where known in brackets, and form figures):

105 (108p)  Newfangled (J.Gosden)    -11
103 (104)   Ceiling Kitty (T.Dascombe)    -24111
102 (105p)  Sky Lantern (R.Hannon)    -11
100 (103)   True Verdict (D.Wachman)    -22
99  (100p)  Hoyam (M.Bell)    -22
96     Agent Allison (P.Chapple-Hyam)    -12
95     Premier Steps (T.Dascombe)    -713
95     Graphic Guest (M.Channon)    -3110
95     Hairy Rocket (R.Hannon)    -123
94     Upward Spiral (T.Dascombe)    -14
93     Infanta Branca (A.O'Brien)    -213
92     Harasiya (J.Oxx)    -1

These ratings, obviously, are just one person's interpretation of past events, but they're a good starting point.  It's good to see Tom Dascombe with three fillies in the top ten - he's a very talented trainer who deserves to get some better class horses.

We must obviously start by considering the merits of Newfangled, whose impressive win last Friday in the Albany Stakes at Ascot has seen her introduced as the early favourite for next year's Guineas (top price 10/1, though bigger prices up to 16/1 were available to small stakes immediately after Friday's race).  She made a big impression just two weeks earlier when spreadeagling the opposition in a Newmarket maiden, showing a high cruising speed and a smart turn of foot on soft ground to win by 4½ lengths.  She looked a classy filly in the race and it took William Buick a long time to pull her up after passing the winning post.  At Ascot the plan was to drop her in and give her some cover, but she had other ideas - she quickly moved to the front and never looked in danger, sprinting clear of her toiling rivals with well over a furlong to race.  She got a bit tired towards the finish, but that was hardly surprising in the circumstances (she made all on soft ground, into a strong headwind, on a stiff track).  In fact, a number of shrewd and seasoned commentators before the race were stressing how important it would be for the juvenile fillies to get some cover and that it would be folly to try and make all the running into such a strong headwind.  This makes Newfangled's electrifying performance all the more impressive.  It may not have been a great renewal of the Albany in terms of the class of the opposition - a Racing Post Rating of 105 puts Newfangled on a par with previous winners of the race - but, as James Pyman noted in the Racing Post, the style and overall impression of her win screamed quality.

Buick's comments after the race were understandably very positive: "She's a fantastic filly.  You can see the way she moves, she's effortless the way she does everything.  There wasn't anything good enough to give her a lead.  She has a good temperament.  The ways she moves, she doesn't feel like she particularly wants soft ground."  She appears to have most of the attributes you would look for in a potential Guineas filly - class, speed, size, scope, ability to handle any ground (she has a fluent action which suggests that she should be at home on faster ground), good temperament and a sharp turn of foot.  There seems little point in stepping her up in trip this year and she's likely to run just twice more this season in the Gr.2 Lowther and Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes.  Her pedigree suggests that she should get a mile without any difficulty, though trainer John Gosden will need to get her to settle a bit better in her races (she reportedly settles fine in her home work): she is by first-season sire sensation New Approach out of winning miler Scarlet Ibis (a daughter of Machiavellian and top-class 8-10f mare Flagbird).

It's interesting to set Newfangled's performance in the context of other recent winners of the Albany Stakes:

2003: Silca's Gift (M.Channon) won by 3 lengths, quite impressively (RPR 103); she was sprint-bred and it turned out to be a weak race.
2004: Jewel In The Sand (R.Hannon) won by 1½ lengths (RPR 101); she went on to win a poorish renewal of the Cherry Hinton before having her limitations exposed in Group 1 company.
2005: La Chunga (J.Noseda) won by 3½ lengths impressively (RPR 108), beating 50/1 shot Vague and subsequent dual Gr.1 winner Rumplestiltskin; she was later a good second in the Lowther; at three she failed to see out the mile in the Guineas and later won a Gr.3 over 6f.
2006: Sander Camillo (J.Noseda) won by 1½ lengths, quite impressively (RPR 104), beating subsequent Lowther winner Silk Blossom and Gr.3 winner Scarlet Runner; went on to win Cherry Hinton impressively by 5 lengths (RPR 116) and leading winter fancy for the Guineas (failed to train on).
2007: Nijoom Dubai (M.Channon) shock 50/1 winner by 1¼ lengths (RPR 103), beating subsequent Cherry Hinton winner You'resothrilling; unplaced in six subsequent starts (failed to train on).
2008: Cuis Ghaire (J.Bolger) won a poorish renewal comfortably by nearly 2 lengths (RPR 101), having achieved a higher rating when successful earlier at Naas; she was later runner-up in the 1000 Guineas (RPR 112) but had problems thereafter.
2009: Habaayib (E.Dunlop) won by 1¼ lengths (RPR 105), beating warm favourite Lillie Langtry (dual Gr.1 winner at three); she later proved disappointing and failed to last a mile in the Guineas.
2010: Memory (R.Hannon) won by a head (RPR 105), coming from a long way back to pip subsequent smart sprinter Margot Did; she was an impressive winner of the Cherry Hinton next time out (RPR 111) but later disappointed in the Moyglare and famously refused to start in three of her four races the following season (including in the Guineas).
2011: Samitar (M.Channon) won by three parts of a length (RPR 105), showing a smart turn of foot to beat mostly poorish (Listed class at best) opposition; she later finished a good second in the Fillies' Mile (RPR 109) and this season won the Irish Guineas.

Sander Camillo was 25/1 (in a place) and 20/1 for the Guineas straight after her Ascot win in June 2006 and could be backed at 10/1 following her demolition job in the Cherry Hinton a few weeks later.  Nijoom Dubai was a 33/1 chance for the Guineas and attracted little if any interest at that price.  Cuis Ghaire was 10/1 (as short as 5/1 in places) for the Guineas after her odds-on victory in the Albany in 2008.  The 2009 winner Habaayib was a 25/1 chance for the Guineas straight after her Ascot win, but there were always doubts about her stamina (she was a daughter of Royal Applause).  Memory was a 20/1 shot for the Guineas after the Albany in 2010 and was cut to 8/1 after her impressive win in the Cherry Hinton next time out.  Last year's winner Samitar was a 33/1 chance for the Guineas after her Albany victory.  In terms of Guineas betting, Newfangled's current price of 10/1 doesn't look terribly attractive (in terms of 'value') at this stage of the season, but it's easy to see why bookmakers don't want to go any bigger.  She's as short as 6/1 with a couple of firms.

Of the other fillies that have already been tested in pattern company, Sky Lantern is certainly one to bear in mind.  She was a comfortable winner of a traditionally strong Listed race at Naas on her second start and trainer Richard Hannon's post-race comments made for interesting reading:

"You'd have to be impressed with the way Sky Lantern won in Ireland, and she could be quite exciting.  She is a lovely scopey Red Clubs filly - much more than just a two-year-old, and we like her a lot.  She looks as if she already wants seven furlongs, but she also has plenty of speed and has a great attitude, as you saw the way she buckled down when the second came at her at the furlong-pole and looked like going past.  Sky Lantern was well bought at 75,000 Euros at Goffs.  She has a good pedigree, and her second dam was Negligent, who was a smart two-year-old and won the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket and then went on to finish third in the 1000 Guineas.  We hope that Sky Lantern might eventually prove a Guineas filly herself, but, more immediately, we will be looking at the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.  We know that she has the speed for six, but we will be looking at races like the Prestige at Goodwood and the Sweet Solera at Newmarket in the second half of the season, and there is plenty to look forward to with her."

Personally, I'm not 100% convinced that Sky Lantern will get a mile.  Her dam Shawanni won over 7f at two but she only ran twice more and did not conclusively prove that she stayed a mile.  Shawanni has produced a number of speedy types such as 5-6f sprinter Arctic (by Shamardal), 5-7f winner Hinton Admiral (by Spectrum), 6f winner Shropshire (by Shamardal), 5f winner Twilight Sonnet (by Exit To Nowhere) and dual 7f winner Sharaby (by Cadeaux Genereux), but she has also produced useful 10-16f winner Shanty Star (by Hector Protector), 7-8f winner Mystic Man (by Cadeaux Genereux) and winning miler Lucky Token (by Key Of Luck).  Sky Lantern is arguably more speedily bred than any of her siblings, being by Red Clubs, and she has shown a lot of speed in both her races to date.  We should learn a lot more when she tackles 7f for the first time.

It's hard to get too excited about any of the other juvenile fillies that have already tackled pattern races this season.  Agent Allison came from a long way back to finish runner-up to Newfangled in the Albany but was completely outclassed by the winner and at this stage it's hard to see her developing into a really top-class performer.  Ceiling Kitty and Hoyam, the first two home in the Queen Mary, are both sprint-bred and very unlikely to get a mile.  Upward Spiral remains of some interest, despite her defeat in the Queen Mary: she is regarded as superior to stablemate Ceiling Kitty by trainer Tom Dascombe and has reasonable prospects of staying a mile later on (she's by Teofilo out of a 7f winner). 

Of the unexposed maiden winners, there was a lot to like about the debut win of John Oxx's filly Harasiya (RPR 92) at Leopardstown, where she was a bit slowly away and showed signs of greenness but ran on strongly in the straight and won quite easily.  She's well regarded and could end up being aimed at the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes.  She looks a smart prospect and is sure to get a mile (indeed may need middle distances next year), but doesn't appeal as a Guineas betting proposition at this stage.  Her trainer rarely targets the 1000 Guineas - during the period 1989-2012 inclusive (24 years) he's had just one runner in the Guineas (Arch Swing, who was runner-up to Finsceal Beo in 2007); in the same period he's had 21 runners in the Irish 1000 Guineas.  Even if Harasiya turns out to be a top-notcher, the chances are that she will probably bypass the English Guineas.

Rayaheen (RPR 84) made a striking impression first time at Nottingham in what was probably just an ordinary maiden race (the runner-up has since finished tailed off at Ayr).  She had been working well at home beforehand and showed a good turn of foot to win with the minimum of fuss.  She is bred in the purple (by Nayef out of 1000 Guineas winner Natagora) and is definitely one to keep a close eye on.  Roger Varian's Exceptionelle (RPR 84) showed plenty of pace when winning an all-weather maiden at Kempton with her ears pricked and has earned a step up in grade, but she's by the speed influence Exceed And Excel and sprinting may be her game.  Mick Channon's juveniles have tended to need a run this season so Sandreamer (RPR 80) did very well to win on debut at Newmarket: she was slowly away but made up ground readily and then showed a good turn of foot to win her race, beating a couple of subsequent winners; the winning time was quite slow and the form is nothing special, but she's well regarded and is sure to improve.  Charlie Hills has a nice prospect in the shape of Just The Judge (RPR 85), who made a promising start to her career when winning a 7f maiden at Newbury this week; she had been going nicely at home and holds the Moyglare Stud Stakes entry. 

As mentioned in the separate 'NEWFANGLED' discussion thread I have backed John Gosden's filly at 33/1 for the Guineas (after her maiden win) and backed her again after the Albany at 16/1.  She's the only one I've backed so far.  I'll be keeping an eye on the Prix Yacowlef at Deauville today and the weekend racing at the Curragh, where Aidan O'Brien has a couple of regally-bred unraced fillies entered for the Gr.3 Grangecon Stud Stakes on Sunday (both also engaged in the 7f fillies maiden on Friday).  The Empress Stakes (Listed) at Newmarket on Saturday should be an informative race with Rayaheen and Sandreamer both intended runners.
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Report jamesp April 29, 2013 10:55 PM BST
Harry, I agree about Moth - her odds are way too short.  I suspect that there has been relatively little money for her (mainly from people like me who run a book on the race and can't afford not to back her, however poor the odds).  Bookmakers didn't take a penny for her over the winter and are keen to have her as a winner in their books, hence the scramble to slash her odds at the slightest whiff of a gamble.  She showed a little bit of promise on her second start last year and has clearly come on considerably this year or they wouldn't be running her in the Guineas straight after winning a poor maiden race.  She's unexposed but shockingly poor value at 7/1.
Report harry callaghan April 30, 2013 12:08 AM BST
A daughter of Mr Greeley, What A Name won two of her four starts as a juvenile and ran top colt Olympic Glory to within two lengths in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp on Arc day.

She reappeared at Maisons-Laffitte in the Prix Imprudence, easing to what was ultimately a cosy success.

Delzangles, who won the 2000 Guineas in 2010 with Makfi, said: "I am very pleased with her and she has improved since winning the Prix Imprudence.

"That was the perfect comeback for her as she did not have a hard race and was only 80 per cent fit.

"I would prefer fast ground for her on Sunday and I do not think that the step up to a mile will be any problem. She is a very easy horse to ride as she never pulls."

Aidan O'Brien's Moth has been supplemented for this weekend's race.

Beaten in both starts as a two-year-old, the daughter of Galileo appeared much improved when running out a most impressive winner of a Curragh maiden on her three-year-old debut at the Curragh in early April.

O'Brien revealed afterwards the first fillies' Classic of the season would be considered and she has now been added to the field at a cost of £30,000.

The master of Ballydoyle also has Magical Dream and Snow Queen in the mix.

Sir Henry Cecil's hugely impressive Nell Gwyn scorer Hot Snap is the ante-post favourite and features among 18 confirmations, as does Charlie Hills' Just The Judge.

Richard Hannon could saddle Fred Darling winner Maureen and Nell Gwyn runner-up Sky Lantern, but one significant absentee is William Haggas' Rosdhu Queen.

Unbeaten as a juvenile but only fourth when seemingly failing to stay seven furlongs in the Fred Darling, the three-year-old is set to revert to sprint distances.

Haggas said: "We think she'll be better over shorter and we've decided to give up on the Guineas.

"She worked at the weekend and is in great form.

"I think that race (Fred Darling) has done a lot of good, but she needs to be better than that at a mile and I can't see it.

"She has a lot of speed, she is good at going fast, so let's use that as a major weapon."

Asked where Rosdhu Queen could run next, Haggas said: "I haven't got as far as that yet. I'll get there."

Leading Irish handler Dermot Weld has Big Break and Rasmeyaa in the field, while other contenders include Roz, Ollie Olga and Diaminda.
Report harry callaghan April 30, 2013 6:05 PM BST
just the judge very weak on here...

in fact has been for a few weeks
Report harchibald April 30, 2013 6:17 PM BST
I've been told one Weld horse is certain to turn up.

Question is, which one ?

Mmmm.

We shall know 09.30am tomorrow. Watch Twitter
Report harry callaghan April 30, 2013 8:30 PM BST
looks like big break is not coming out to 30 now

Of his main Guineas challenger, Moth, who won on her seasonal reappearance this year, he said on Tuesday: "We thought she was a very good filly as a two-year-old and never won. Her work was always exceptional.

"So obviously we didn't really know what to expect on her first run this year and that was the first time she showed on the track what she's shows us at home all the time. We were delighted with her first run."

Richard Hannon junior also had news on his stable's pair, Sky Lantern and Maureen, saying: "Sky Lantern looks very well. She worked very well on Sunday morning.

"Obviously she'll be 3lb better off with Prince Khalid Abdulla's filly [Hot Snap, whom she chased home in the Nell Gwyn Stakes]. Is that enough? It didn't look like it would be at that time, but she has done very well since and she will be a lot fitter."

On Maureen, he added: "You just get the impression she enjoys her racing. She has a great turn of foot. Whether she gets the mile remains to be seen. If she gets the mile she will run a big race."
Report harchibald April 30, 2013 8:49 PM BST
Grimthorpe confirmed the Dermot Weld trained BIG BREAK ... would not join Hot Snap in the race.

********** great
Report harchibald April 30, 2013 8:54 PM BST
Rasmeyaa - This is highly likely to run in my opinion.

Could be anything category. Could hose up or not feature. I've played for regular stake but losing on the race currently.

Good luck all.
Report harchibald April 30, 2013 9:20 PM BST
Money's coming for Rasmeyaa isn't it kids ?
Report jamesp April 30, 2013 9:44 PM BST
Shame about Big Break.  Commiserations harchibald.  Any particular reason for thinking that Rasmeyaa is going to run?  Has she not been held up (like Big Break) by the bad spring weather?  Any definite news?
Report jamesp April 30, 2013 9:46 PM BST
Typical Ballydoyle news management: "[Moth's] work was always exceptional."  NOW they tell us!!  Cry
Report harchibald April 30, 2013 9:58 PM BST
James Hi,

From my detailed enquiries yesterday I spoke with an informed source.

He told me one of them will run. He himself didn't know which one and couldn't second guess, we chewed it over for a long time. Low and behold money for BB evaporates and story out in RP tomorrow from Teddy G confirming BB doesn't go.

It's Rasmeyaa. Hamdan wants a runner apparently. They both work tomorrow am and at 09.30 we should find out.

Teddy G has apparently pulled stumps already though.

I would be confident Rasmeyaa does go for Weld. This tells us quite a lot in my view.

She's unexposed and could really be the value in the race.

In my earnest sentiment she only has about the first 3, HS, WAN and JTJ to beat.

She's good value at 25/1 +

Risky though if one would rather wait.
Report jamesp April 30, 2013 10:05 PM BST
I'd rather wait for definite news and then back at a shorter price.  Weld never runs fillies in the 1000 Guineas, he invariably waits for the Irish Guineas, but we'll see...  Meanwhile, the betting on here suggests that Snow Queen rather than Magical Dream will join stablemate Moth in the line-up on Sunday.
Report BJG April 30, 2013 11:51 PM BST
I will b a very happy boy if its Rasmeyaa - have a lot of juicy prices (as per earlier on the thread)
Report BJG April 30, 2013 11:59 PM BST
On further asking - Big Break definitely does not run - Rasmeyaa is nt a definite but is a possible(plz god run!)

Moth and Snow Queen run for Ballydoyle
Report jamesp May 1, 2013 8:05 AM BST
Who is the source of your information about the Weld fillies?
Report harchibald May 1, 2013 9:46 AM BST
Just up on Twitter now guys, Rasmeyaa confirmed
Report harchibald May 1, 2013 9:46 AM BST
Just up on Twitter now guys, Rasmeyaa confirmed
Report Tascro May 1, 2013 9:49 AM BST
Dermot Weld reports that Rasmeyaa (Pat Smullen) is likely to be his sole runner in Sunday's 1000 Guineas at Newmaket.
Weld: "Big Break is a bit like her brother Famous Name and needs some ease in the ground. We'll look at Longchamp or the Curragh for her."
Report DMCK May 1, 2013 11:37 AM BST
im delighted with the Rasmeyaa news been having nibbles all winter at odds from 32 to 80 and a snip at the fancy 200's. however i would have liked her to have taken a trial and am now feeling that she is a true 33-1 shot on all form so i be trading a lot of my portfolio for more of What a Name.

also Smullen is said to ride, surprised as Hanagan has the retainer and he gets them ahead of hughes and Moore so i thought that he'd get her too if he so wanted.
Report sintonian May 1, 2013 11:39 AM BST
So is he saying she is not running due to the going?

Anyway, kinda knew I should not have placed the bet. NEVER bet Weld horses ante-post for English Classics. Simple.
Report DMCK May 1, 2013 11:56 AM BST
no think its that she needs more time (official explaination) but it could be that they are happy with just Hot Snap
Report BJG May 1, 2013 7:09 PM BST
J O'Brien will ride Moth

Ryan Moore on Snow Queen
Report roobuck May 2, 2013 9:06 AM BST
Pleased for BJG and DMCK on the Rasmeyaa news. Interested to know if this was what Weld wanted or what the owner wanted?

As I said earlier in the thread about BB, if it is Weld's decision I'd take quite a bit of notice of it. The fact he started her in a Listed race surely shows the regard he has for her
Report BJG May 2, 2013 9:46 AM BST
Rasmeyaa is set to take her chance in the Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday despite reservations that the race may come just a shade too soon.

Following a pleasing workout on Tuesday the Dermot Weld-trained filly was given the go-ahead to bid for Classic glory.

"Like everybody they've had a tricky spring. I think trainer and jockey both feel in a perfect world they'd have another 10 days just to get her to blossom, but we don't have that perfect world," said Angus Gold, racing manager to owner Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum.

"She worked well on Tuesday and they are perfectly happy to let her take her chance.

"She's got her whole season in front of her and I'm sure she'll be better for the run. We don't have the benefit of time on our side, but we'll give it a go."

Gold confirmed that Weld's stable jockey, Pat Smullen, will keep the ride on the filly, who won the second of her two starts in tremendous style at Leopardstown in October.

Weld left in Big Break at Monday's confirmation stage, but she is to wait for either the French or Irish versions, with the Etihad Airways-sponsored Classic at the Curragh on 26 May appearing the more likely destination.

"We're going to see. She just needs a little more time," said Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to owner Khalid Abullah.

"She has the option of the French Guineas. At this stage I would say the Irish Guineas would be a bit more likely."

Ante-post favourite Hot Snap will now be the owner's sole representative at Newmarket. The impressive Nell Gwyn Stakes winner is reported to be ready for the big day.

"She's fine and is in good shape," said Grimthorpe.

Winning Express was third behind Hot Snap in the Nell Gwyn, but her trainer Ed McMahon is to adopt different riding tactics in a bid to reverse the form.

"I probably got her as fit as I could, but we rode her to get the seven furlongs and we got into a bit of a squashing match about two out. She's come out of the race very well," he told At The Races.

"I think everything will be right for her on Sunday. The ground will suit, but I think it's an open Guineas.

"We're going to ride her slightly different. I won't give her the ground to make up."

Sheikh Hamdan's retained jockey in Britain, Paul Hanagan, looks like taking the mount on outsider Diaminda, who will be trainer Alan Jarvis's first ever runner in a Classic.

"She's my first runner in a Classic. I've had some good horses before and never entered them so that should tell you something," said the Twyford handler.

Harry Dunlop is happy for Roz to make her three-year-old debut in the big race.

That has been the plan since she finished second to Certify in the Shadwell Fillies' Mile over this course and distance in September.

"We've had a good winter with her. She had a day away for a racecourse gallop at Kempton. It's onwards and upwards, ready for Newmarket," said the Lambourn trainer.

"She loves fast ground and hopefully she should get that. There had been showers around and the ground didn't completely suit her when she ran in the Fillies' Mile there.

"Certify got a run on us and our filly was gaining at the end. We are realistic that we have to improve on the figures, but we have to give it a go."
Report sintonian May 2, 2013 9:50 AM BST
The fact that Weld does run her when he barely sends anything other has to be taken seriously. The form of her maiden has worked out well. I wonder how she will act on Good to Firm ground. She is by an Indian Ridge mare who generally handle Soft well as do lots of horses with Galileo in the breeding.
Report roobuck May 2, 2013 9:56 AM BST
Once confirmed I will have a very small saver on her e/w.

It may be pocket talking, but still very happy with just having What a Name as the main hope. Couldn't bet any of the other market principals at the current prices
Report sintonian May 2, 2013 10:08 AM BST
What A Name the only other i'd back too, Roo. I've already said she has a potent turn of foot and think she could win over 6f but if she gets 8f, and loads of people think she will, then you are getting 5/1 to find out. At this stage she definitely looks the best horse in the race imo.
Report Millerracing67 May 2, 2013 2:52 PM BST
What a Name looks the solid ew play in the race for me.
Have not done anything ante-p this year on any of the Classics & will wait till Sunday morn now. At hopefully still about 5s or better, she will carry a gd ew punt of mine.
She has gd win & place group form in the book & won her prep race in gd style with a fair bit in hand, for which the trainer said she was only about 80% fit for.
Gd fast ground will suit & I expect her to go very close indeed on Sunday.
Report bosra shame May 2, 2013 4:34 PM BST
I have been backing What a Name all winter and am feeling very confident over her chances. I feel she is the only genuine Group 1 miler in the field.Her rivals around her in the betting may be better over slightly further.
My only concern would be a split field - anyone know where the stalls are placed for the straight mile this weekend ?
Report harry callaghan May 2, 2013 4:40 PM BST
down the centre bosra
Report sintonian May 2, 2013 5:10 PM BST
When it is a big field and the going is fast you want to be drawn away from the stands side, as Canford Cliffs found out to his cost.
Report roobuck May 2, 2013 6:09 PM BST
Cannot have that as an example sint - beaten by a better horse on that day
Report sintonian May 2, 2013 9:38 PM BST
He had to come across the track from his draw though Roo. No doubt who the best horse was out of Makfi,CC and Dick Turpin.
Report jair1970 May 3, 2013 12:25 AM BST
Makfi, Sint?

Unbeaten apart from 2 runs at Ascot & i'll forgive any horse bad runs at the 'new' Ascot, it's a strange old track these days.
Report roobuck May 3, 2013 6:34 AM BST
Candied pulled Hugjes arms out for first furlong and the race simply developed away from him - nothing to do with the ground away from the stand side. No doubt he developed into the best horse but on Guineas day he was beaten fair and square imo of course
Report roobuck May 3, 2013 6:36 AM BST
Bloody iPhone - Canford and Hughes obviously
Report BJG May 3, 2013 10:45 AM BST
Maureen (10), Moth (11), What A Name (12) Just The Judge (13) & Hot Snap (14) all drawn next to each other

Full decs soon
Report BJG May 3, 2013 10:50 AM BST
Magical Dream
Big Break
Melody of Dream


The ones taken out
Report harry callaghan May 3, 2013 11:44 AM BST
1 (9)     127-2     Agent Allison
William Buick 25/1

2 (6) Celtic Filly
M Barzalona     66/1

3 (8) 214- Diaminda
P Hanagan 50/1

4 (14) 1-1 Hot Snap
T P Queally 11/4

5 (13) 111- Just The Judge
J P Spencer 5/1

6 (5) 2540-51 Masarah
Freddie Tylicki 50/1

7 (10) 1219-1 Maureen
O Peslier 12/1

8 (11)     53-1 Moth
J P O'Brien 6/1

9 (1) 1116- Ollie Olga
Martin Harley 33/1

10 (4) 31- Rasmeyaa
P J Smullen 16/1

11 (3) 0112- Roz
Jim Crowley 33/1

12 (7) 12218-2 Sky Lantern
R Hughes 10/1

13 (15) 21021-3 Snow Queen
R L Moore 25/1

14 (12) 3112-1 What A Name
C P Lemaire 9/2

15 (2) 112-3 Winning Express
F Norton 18/1
Report harry callaghan May 3, 2013 11:46 AM BST
1 (9)     127-2     Agent Allison William Buick 25/1

2 (6) Celtic Filly M Barzalona     66/1

3 (8) 214- Diaminda P Hanagan 50/1

4 (14) 1-1 Hot Snap T P Queally 11/4

5 (13) 111- Just The Judge J P Spencer 5/1

6 (5) 2540-51 Masarah Freddie Tylicki 50/1

7 (10) 1219-1 Maureen O Peslier 12/1

8 (11)     53-1 Moth J P O'Brien 6/1

9 (1) 1116- Ollie Olga Martin Harley 33/1

10 (4) 31- Rasmeyaa P J Smullen 16/1

11 (3) 0112- Roz Jim Crowley 33/1

12 (7) 12218-2 Sky Lantern R Hughes 10/1

13 (15) 21021-3 Snow Queen R L Moore 25/1

14 (12) 3112-1 What A Name C P Lemaire 9/2

15 (2) 112-3 Winning Express F Norton 18/1
Report BJG May 3, 2013 11:53 AM BST
STANDARD CARDAT-A-GLANCE CARDODDS COMPARISONLATEST SHOWS
NO. DRAW    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
19     127-2    Agent Allison15    3    9-0    Peter Chapple-Hyam100    William Buick     103    114    117
26    11-115    Celtic Filly19      3    9-0    E J O´Neill    Mickael Barzalona     89    46    101
38     214-    Diaminda241    3    9-0    Alan Jarvis38    Paul Hanagan     99    101    107
414    1-1    Hot Snap18      3    9-0    Sir Henry Cecil86    Tom Queally     113    110    127
513     111-    Just The Judge204      3    9-0    Charles Hills61    Jamie Spencer     107    111    122
65     540-51    Masarah4      3    9-0    Clive Brittain60    Frederik Tylicki     95    91    113
710     1219-1    Maureen15    3    9-0    Richard Hannon69    Olivier Peslier     106    116    121
811     53-1    Moth28    3    9-0    A P O´Brien100    Joseph O'Brien     —    94    99
91     1116-    Ollie Olga219    3    9-0    Mick Channon55    Martin Harley     104    113    118
104     31-    Rasmeyaa190    3    9-0    D K Weld64    Pat Smullen     —    97    111
113     0112-    Roz219    3    9-0    Harry Dunlop75    Jim Crowley     104    92    116
127     2218-2    Sky Lantern18      3    9-0    Richard Hannon69    Richard Hughes     111    111    124
1315     1021-3    Snow Queen21 p    3    9-0    A P O´Brien100    Ryan Moore     100    94    113
1412     3112-1    What A Name31    3    9-0    M Delzangles    Christophe-Patrice Lemaire     111    119    124
152     112-3    Winning Express18    3    9-0    Ed McMahon50    Franny Norton     104    108    119
Report sintonian May 3, 2013 6:24 PM BST
Just The Judge still pretty weak fwiw. 9/1 on here in the day of race market.
Report BJG May 3, 2013 7:57 PM BST
Had to start drifting imo - was made a false price by all the hype all winter and the constant shortening by the books at every mention of her name
Report roobuck May 3, 2013 8:17 PM BST
Couldn't agree more BJG....watch her hose up now Blush
Report cryoftruth May 3, 2013 11:01 PM BST
My view is thatHot Snap must be hard to beat with only What A Name likely to do so.

Anyone still to finalise their book must watch Hot Snap's Nel Gwyn. I know Graham Cunningham blames the wind for her. Easy win, but she improved about 2 stone to win brilliantly and has so much scope to improve for the run, and for the extra trip.

Moth needs to be very good to beat the other 2. justThe Judge may need further and may need softer going.

If you can get near 3/1 Hot Snap it is value IMO. Even now I am struggling to comprehend how the bookies went 8/1 after the Nel Gwyn. I honestly expected her to be 3/1 after that amazing trial. Top rated already, can anyone seriously believe that Sir Henry won't have her spot on for Sunday?
Report sintonian May 4, 2013 9:51 AM BST
Spot on in what sense? He can't make her mature overnight. She is still inexperienced and was green in the Nell Gwyn. No denying her potential though. GL with your bets Cot.
Report cryoftruth May 4, 2013 12:26 PM BST
Thanks Sint; best of luck to you as well
Report roobuck May 4, 2013 12:34 PM BST
Likely to be pretty quick tomorrow and for a horse that was so green last time and for a daughter of Pivotal it's not going to be ideal. If she does overcome that she will indeed be well above average.
Report sintonian May 4, 2013 5:13 PM BST
Any rain due tonight/tomorrow ?
Report sj May 4, 2013 6:03 PM BST
roobuck 04 May 13 12:34
Likely to be pretty quick tomorrow and for a horse that was so green last time and for a daughter of Pivotal it's not going to be ideal.

I think sometimes we go overboard regarding the fact that Pivotals must have cut,also the dam only raced on quick going. I have seen worse 11/4 shots in a classic and the way the penny dropped in the last 3 furlongs of the Nell Gwyn she looks like shes learning pretty quickly.

Sint

regarding the weather forcast less than 1 mm overnight and into tomorrow
Report roobuck May 4, 2013 10:28 PM BST
sj I'm not saying this Pivotal needs cut, but not sure she would want it that quick that's all, especially if she ran as green as last time. Don't get me wrong I think she is the one to beat.
Report sj May 4, 2013 10:44 PM BST
fair points roo.
Report BJG May 4, 2013 11:27 PM BST
Newmarket watering tonight
Report judorick May 4, 2013 11:54 PM BST
I am having a right few quid on AGENT ALLISON at 50 ish in the win and 10+ to be placed

she is screaming out for a mile and a sound surface, ought to have won the Fred Darling (was slowly away, squeezed and hampered)

any losses are only lent as she will pay her way this season for sure
Report lingbleed May 5, 2013 12:21 AM BST
just like the craven and toronado ,hot snap is not the first horse to come out of a trail as the second coming ,also i am always suspicious when a horse win's on that rail at newmarket , or maybe am just upset i didnt back her when she was a bigger price and im trying to convince myself she wont win .But am on just the judge for the guineas and oaks , would be interested to hear if you lads think she will stay 12f .lawman has yet to have a 12f winner just think she looks so well balanced and has a beautiful stride that if she stays the 12 she's got a great chance and at 25.well great thread ive enjoyed follow n it and the best of luck to you all tomorrow who ever ur on .
Report judorick May 5, 2013 12:54 AM BST
just my opinion so don't shoot me

but that Rockfel form of Just The Judge is highly suspect and I simply cannot see how she can win

equally, do not like the Nell Gwynn form at all with Winning Express quite close up (6 furlong horse)

of the fancied runners I like the French one best (What A Name) but I feel sure a couple of the rags are gonna run huge - have taken 50 + 10 win and place on Agent Allison so far

and might take similar bets on Ollie Olga
Report sj May 5, 2013 2:37 AM BST
as BJG said,HQ watered after racing putting on 3mm
Report roobuck May 5, 2013 6:03 AM BST
We've just had probably the wettest 12 months on record, the temp is only likely to be 20 degrees and its the beginning of May......and he's watering during a meeting Cry
Report unclepuncle May 5, 2013 10:15 AM BST
Given the heavy rain shower they had before the Guineas I can't understand why he'd water again. Cry
Report sintonian May 5, 2013 10:21 AM BST
Judo, I agree with you and had a nibble on AA myself. Getting Jamie Spencer replaced by Buick is a big plus for me and he did win on her first time out last season.

Of the rest I hope What A Name might win, i've not backed her but she is in my TTF list, and Dermot Weld running Rasmaaeye is giving me a big headache so i'm staying out! 33/1 ew on AA will do.

GL all.
Report harry callaghan May 5, 2013 12:16 PM BST
having gone through the runners again this is now a very tricky betting medium...

what i have noticed however is the serious lack of pace drawn in the high numbers where are they going to get toed along from...

the pace angle appears to all be low with roz, celtic filly and masarah likely to toe that side along...there is no pace high which has to make this tough for these runners depending on where the low number drawn fillies go if they don't come stand side i would fear for the high number drawn fillies and that is most of the fancied runners

I'm on what a name but feel the need to follow the pace...sky lantern looks a cracking bet to place as will get the easy toe into the race how much she finds is another debate but a good bet to place to me and the money horse rasmeyaa both need to be shown the utmost respect...agent allison isn't a bad long poke but she went well fresh last year and how much she improves for the run has to be taken on trust she is respected however at the odds

tricky wagering here and nothing can be backed with confidence with like i say the pace all drawn low
Report jamesp May 5, 2013 12:41 PM BST
I doubt if the draw will be a factor, tbh.  They should come down the middle of the course and if the low drawn fillies get first run and cause an upset, the other jockeys will have only themselves to blame...
Relieved that the weather has relented so we have perfect conditions today!  (The shower before the 2000 Guineas yesterday reportedly added only 1mm of water to the track.)
Good luck all
Report harry callaghan May 5, 2013 12:51 PM BST
why will the high drawn jockeys have themselves to blame?? they aren't drawn with the pace

anyone that is a race reader knows the effect of pace and is nieve to not take this into account when wagering on horses imo
Report Figgis May 5, 2013 12:55 PM BST
I find Timeform's assessment that Hot Snap's form is already good enough to have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of the 1000 as well over the top, we'll see.
Report roobuck May 5, 2013 1:19 PM BST
Come on harry there are only 15 runners and no track bias, these are experienced jockeys who should know whether the pace they are following is good to get a tow into the race. DA got over easily enough yesterday, no reason should be any different today.
Report harry callaghan May 5, 2013 1:46 PM BST
listen roo pace biases obviously doesn't come into your thinking when betting on straight track flat races it does mine and always will do...

if all the runners follow the pace that is low the higher number horses will be at a disadvantage...anyway this may not bare out here but there is 3 front runners drawn low and not one leader drawn high here to give those runners a decent tow into the race, that for me affects my thinking on the race if you chose not to that is your prerogative as a punter

my point is, this is not ideal for those drawn high and thus tempers my enthusiasm on betting on them, that isn't to say I hope I am wrong as am on what a name for a decent profit but don't need to talk through my pocket when analysing a race and this will hopefully bare out in profit in the long term...this isn't to say the high numbers cannot win it it will just be harder for them imo

when you are talking about yesterday dawn approach and manning knew they had to get over to follow the pace but will the jockeys want to switch from the stands side to mid track here...anyway probably complicating it to much but like i say sways my confidence in getting more involved
Report Graeme83 May 5, 2013 1:49 PM BST
Absolutely Harry, unless Snow Queen makes all. WinkLaugh
Report harry callaghan May 5, 2013 1:52 PM BST
no chance of that graeme she will be in rear and ridden for a place if her other races are anything to go by
Report roobuck May 5, 2013 2:02 PM BST
It does harry just don't see it in this race. If a jockey cannot see where the pace is they shouldn't be riding. And as i said with only 15 runners they are hardly going to need to cross much of the track. The whole field will therefore go a decent clip and then, imo, it will be an advantage to be where the class of the race is. At the moment it is perceived to be high, time will tell if that is right or not.
Report Pinza May 5, 2013 3:17 PM BST
Having gone through the template based upon races since 1982
The best look to be...What A Name and Maureen.

The fav Hot Snap has to overcome the single run as 2yo.
31 years of data and 32 winners (including disqualified Jacqueline Quest) say that no winner had just the one run as 2yo.
Report Pinza May 5, 2013 3:32 PM BST
Sonic Lady 3rd
Heart of Joy 2nd
Petrushka 3rd
Infallible 4th

All above had similar form to Hot Snap, (2yo win and Nell Gwyn win)
so whilst against it winning it should be thereabouts.
Report Tascro May 5, 2013 3:44 PM BST
Best of luck to everyone. Been a great thread and some great input from people especially jamesp.
Report unclepuncle May 5, 2013 4:10 PM BST
Well done backers and really pleased for Richard Hughes.Happy

Thought I was going to land a nice antepost double (with Dawn Approach @ 5/1) when Just The Judge cruised up and was disappointed she didn't put it to bed like she had in the Rockfel.Cry
Report J.D.Salinger May 5, 2013 4:19 PM BST
Good clean race. No hard luck stories.

Congratulations Figgis for keeping the faith--same goes for other Sky Lantern backers.
Report sageform May 5, 2013 4:45 PM BST
Well done winners. I was gutted to see Just the Judge caught but she ran a great race. Who knows whether a prep race would have made the difference. On the other hand, a prep clearly bottomed Hot Snap and What A Name.
Report jamesp May 5, 2013 4:47 PM BST
Great result!! Happy  A huge relief to have a winner that fits most of the historic trends for the race.  Ladbr*kes for once got it wrong: they were consistently biggest about this one over the winter and spring.
Report unclepuncle May 5, 2013 5:19 PM BST
Shame Certify never got to take her chance mind.Confused
Report sintonian May 5, 2013 5:30 PM BST
well done winners , Jamesp, Figgis and everyone else.

Thought Just The Judge ran the best Oaks trial considering she is related to High Heeled.
Report Figgis May 5, 2013 8:13 PM BST
Cheers lads, it's been a great weekend Happy
Report FatoteSport May 5, 2013 9:49 PM BST
Looking forwards to next years 1000G thread already :)
Report lingbleed May 6, 2013 12:35 AM BST
just home from work ,sky plus+ the race n and avoided the results all day ,i can barely believe jtj got bet i was counting my money as they were coming up the hill .well thats racing  .well done winner s great tread ,as i said earlier any taught of jtj staying 12f ,lawman has yet to have a 12f winner either that or raceform is wrong.
Report unclepuncle May 6, 2013 7:03 AM BST
Can't have JTJ staying 12f myself - she travelled like the best horse yesterday - at the 2f pole I expected her to power a few lengths clear going down the dip and was disappointed it took her so long to shrug off the non staying Winning Express.
If she were mine I'd be going to the Irish 1,000 and Coronation at Ascot.
Report sj May 6, 2013 7:57 AM BST
great thread as usual,as said be someone already cant wait till the 2014 version goes to press.
Report sintonian May 6, 2013 11:06 AM BST
What do we make of What A Name's run? Needs a drop in trip or just not good enough on the day?
Report bosra shame May 6, 2013 12:41 PM BST
Looked to me Sint that she either didn't stay( which I doubt as they went slow ) or hated the ground. For whatever reason, she didnt produce her usual turn of foot
Report sintonian May 6, 2013 1:21 PM BST
What has the trainer said ? I've not read anything on the web yet ..
Report sj May 6, 2013 1:22 PM BST
might keep an eye on snow queen if there's a bit of cut in thre ground for the irish 1000,at e/wprices of course
Report unclepuncle May 6, 2013 1:44 PM BST
Maybe What A Name didn't handle the track - very different to the French tracks she'd have run on. Was still very disappointing though.
Report Figgis May 6, 2013 6:06 PM BST
I see Timeform are still rating Hot Snap the best horse in the race, oh well, I hope the betting market continues to overestimate her too Wink
Report Michrich May 7, 2013 2:06 PM BST
Hi Figgis. Well done on getting the winner, your judgement of Sky Lantern was spot on. My Maureen & Toronado double was not worth the paper it was written onCry
Report Figgis May 7, 2013 2:25 PM BST
Ta, Mich. Well I was due one, it's been 21 years since I last backed the winner ante postLaugh, can't recall having any other long term bets on the race in recent years, unless I've conveniently blocked them out Wink
Report sewter lives again May 7, 2013 6:08 PM BST
have been keeping an eye on this thread for sometime and thoroughly enjoying the input

fwiw i have watched the Nell Gwyn several times now and think that had Hughes kicked on then Sky Lantern may well have won, he seemed surprised when HotSnap went by him  and didnt/couldnt react, it was only a trial and she was giving 3lbs, in the Guineas Hughes rode his race and I thought the winner really enjoyed the fast ground alot more than some of the others (Hannons obviously werent worried by fast ground as she ran on firm in the BC and prob would have won with a run)
Report jamesp May 10, 2013 8:01 AM BST
I've not seen or heard any comments from Mikel Delzangles regarding What A Name's performance.  Having just watched the race again, I thought she had every chance and at one stage looked like she would take a hand in the finish, but she never really picked up like she'd done in her previous races and Lemaire allowed her to coast home in the final 100 yards.  Maybe she just found the ground a bit too quick.  Sky Lantern did really well to get up close home, as Just The Judge got first run on her.  The runner-up looks like an out-and-out miler (like her full sister Amber Silk) and I'll be surprised if they opt to go for the Oaks with her (the Coronation Stakes seems a more likely target).  Moth ran a great Oaks trial.  Overall, I don't think it was a great renewal of the Guineas, though it looked competitive beforehand: the form is held down by the proximity of Snow Queen in fifth and the winner has been given a rating of 114 by the R Post (just 4lbs higher than her previous best).  It was a great result for trends followers, with some of last year's top Gr.1 and Gr.2 fillies finishing 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th and 7th (the two other fillies to finish prominently were both trained by Aidan O'Brien) - a welcome relief after unexpected results in 2009, 2011 and 2012!
Report sintonian May 10, 2013 12:56 PM BST
Must have been the ground. She'd never raced on anything that quick. I'll tweet the trainers wife see if she replies.
Report sj May 10, 2013 1:03 PM BST
although we can say the form is held down by the 5th(which is correct),many if not all thought the class of 2012 2yo fillies,were not the greatest bunch ever seen
Report sintonian May 13, 2013 10:17 AM BST
In today's RP they are reporting What A Name was ''heavily in season'' when she ran at Newmarket.
Report unclepuncle May 13, 2013 12:58 PM BST
Typical - she would have to go on the blob when my money was down.Cry
Report Figgis June 21, 2013 3:51 PM BST
Sky Lantern Love
Report Stevie Gerrard June 21, 2013 5:02 PM BST
she must be one of your favourite horses of all time now figgis
Report Figgis June 21, 2013 5:14 PM BST
Yeah, Stevie, unfortunately, though, I only had a small bet today, thought it might've been a rough race. Just glad that she's gone on, as I thought her Guineas performance was unfairly regarded as below average. I've seen better but I had it as slightly above average.
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