Horse Antepost
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The Prix De Diane , also known as The French Oaks , is run this Sunday at Chantilly. It is a Group 1 Race for 3 year old fillies and is run over 2100 metres (approx. 1 mile 2 ½ furlongs) It has been won by some brilliant horses over the years including 2008 winner Zarkava and last year’s winner Golden Lilac. This year the favourite is French 1000 Guineas winner Beauty Parlour.
10 Year Trends –
Season Runs – 10/10 winners had already run between 1 -3 times that season.
Starting Price – 10/10had a starting price of 11/2 or under. 6 of the last 10 winners were favourite.
Distance – 9/10 had previously won over a distance of at least 8 furlongs.
Class – 8/10 had won a Listed or Group Race. 5 had won a Group 1 race.
Last Time Out – 8/10 won their last race. The other 2 finished 2nd and 6th in a Group 1 races last time out.
Trainers – Fabre and Royer-Dupre have both won the race twice in the last 10 years.
Key Races –
3/10 won the French 1000 Guineas last time out
3/10 ran in the Prix Saint-Alary and finished 211
10 Year Trends –
Season Runs – 10/10 winners had already run between 1 -3 times that season.
Starting Price – 10/10had a starting price of 11/2 or under. 6 of the last 10 winners were favourite.
Distance – 9/10 had previously won over a distance of at least 8 furlongs.
Class – 8/10 had won a Listed or Group Race. 5 had won a Group 1 race.
Last Time Out – 8/10 won their last race. The other 2 finished 2nd and 6th in a Group 1 races last time out.
Trainers – Fabre and Royer-Dupre have both won the race twice in the last 10 years.
Key Races –
3/10 won the French 1000 Guineas last time out
3/10 ran in the Prix Saint-Alary and finished 211
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Doesn't sound much hope for a 25/1 Rouget that's never run in a Pattern or Listed race then...... 
A race of the highest quality.
I've backed Up. In April, she stayed on very well at Leopardstown against the future English Guineas' winner, Homecoming Queen. Last month, she put in an eye-catching performance when staying on strongly in the French Guineas to Beauty Parlour--who Soumillon thinks is in the same league as Zarkava. To my untrained eye, Up would have beaten Beauty Parlour in another furlong. So I think 12/1 with WH is excellent value to reverse the form.
I also like Valyra. The Aga Khan has stumped up 55,000 euros to supplement this rapidly improving and unbeaten Azamour filly. The Aga has 2 other high class fillies in the race: the unbeaten, Dalkala--a very impressive 4 length winner (eased up)last time out, and Sagawarra, winner of the group 1 Prix Saint-Alary--the traditional 'trial' for Sunday's Prix de Diane.
Maybe my thinking is all wrong, but when the Aga already has 2 fillies of such quality in the race, THEN decides to cough-up 55,000 euros to supplement another filly into the race, he must think she has a winning chance.
At 25/1 with WH Valyra is a cracking 'saver' bet.
I've backed Up. In April, she stayed on very well at Leopardstown against the future English Guineas' winner, Homecoming Queen. Last month, she put in an eye-catching performance when staying on strongly in the French Guineas to Beauty Parlour--who Soumillon thinks is in the same league as Zarkava. To my untrained eye, Up would have beaten Beauty Parlour in another furlong. So I think 12/1 with WH is excellent value to reverse the form.
I also like Valyra. The Aga Khan has stumped up 55,000 euros to supplement this rapidly improving and unbeaten Azamour filly. The Aga has 2 other high class fillies in the race: the unbeaten, Dalkala--a very impressive 4 length winner (eased up)last time out, and Sagawarra, winner of the group 1 Prix Saint-Alary--the traditional 'trial' for Sunday's Prix de Diane.
Maybe my thinking is all wrong, but when the Aga already has 2 fillies of such quality in the race, THEN decides to cough-up 55,000 euros to supplement another filly into the race, he must think she has a winning chance.
At 25/1 with WH Valyra is a cracking 'saver' bet.
Spot on re: Valyra imo, JDS. I've just watched her two runs to date again (to reconfirm earlier thoughts) and she is deeply impressive both times.
The 25/1 is far too big and there's no way in the world Dalkala goes off 9/1 on the PMU either. I actually think if there is a crack in the race it could be Valyra and not the fav, who didn't blow me away last time. Not sure about the Irish challenge but they'll need to be good to see off BP and the Aga trio.
You'd also have to respect the other supp Leaupartie and I still think Petite Noblesse is a good horse waiting to happen....but the first strikes simply have to be Valyra and Dalkala at those prices.
The 25/1 is far too big and there's no way in the world Dalkala goes off 9/1 on the PMU either. I actually think if there is a crack in the race it could be Valyra and not the fav, who didn't blow me away last time. Not sure about the Irish challenge but they'll need to be good to see off BP and the Aga trio.
You'd also have to respect the other supp Leaupartie and I still think Petite Noblesse is a good horse waiting to happen....but the first strikes simply have to be Valyra and Dalkala at those prices.
Dont know. I usually get put off by this mob-handed approach. If Dalkala was a top horse then why supplement the other one?
The current going is Very Soft, apparently, which will be right up Kisseds street, but im not sure she is actually going to run (entered in the Ribblesdale) and she probably wants 12f not 10f.
If Kissed comes out (a 4/1 chance) then the 25/1 will become 16/1 in a flash ..
The current going is Very Soft, apparently, which will be right up Kisseds street, but im not sure she is actually going to run (entered in the Ribblesdale) and she probably wants 12f not 10f.
If Kissed comes out (a 4/1 chance) then the 25/1 will become 16/1 in a flash ..
Though I have no idea where Kissed will be running. She might actually go to France.
Yes, TH, I've also been impressed with Valyra--although we both know they were not pattern races she slaughtered her opposition in. To my warped way of thinking, it's the fact that the Aga has coughed-up 55,000 euros to enter Valyra which persuades me to back her, when he has 2 other high calibre fillies in the race.
Would you care to take another look at the French 1000 Guineas, and tell me whether my eyesight is failing me in my rather bold assessment that Up can reverse form with Beauty Parlour over another 2 furlongs and a bit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcHnkxLY8dg&feature=related
Would you care to take another look at the French 1000 Guineas, and tell me whether my eyesight is failing me in my rather bold assessment that Up can reverse form with Beauty Parlour over another 2 furlongs and a bit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcHnkxLY8dg&feature=related
Up was making ground in the easiest part of the race wasn't she?
I don't know, sintonian. I always thought the last part of the race is when the horse comes under most pressure.
To my untrained eye, Up finished strongly--but more importantly, going back over her form, especially last year when she finished strongly in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs (beaten 2 lengths), she wants to go further than a mile.
I think Sunday's race will suit her. I also think O'Brien sending her over to France was significant.
To my untrained eye, Up finished strongly--but more importantly, going back over her form, especially last year when she finished strongly in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs (beaten 2 lengths), she wants to go further than a mile.
I think Sunday's race will suit her. I also think O'Brien sending her over to France was significant.
Your thinking isn't warped at all, old chap. Unless the supp was a pacemaker, which Valyra most certainly isn't imo, then it's a huge clue. I know Dalkala shows nothing at home and they were a little caught out in the Cleopatre, and I also know this borders on being the Aga's favourite race of the year so he's going to chuck the lot at it, but ultimately they've got two very strong candidates already - to add a third one (at a premium) should make people sit up imo.
I've had another go at the Pouliches and tbh I just don't like the look of the race. Soumi was hoping BP would win doing handstands, which she clearly didn't, and I'm not sure the form's all that good. UP looks like she might find a bit for another two furlongs, although there's plenty of speed in her pedigree, but I have to say I'd be pretty disappointed if she went and won on Sunday. She's certainly no superstar, as Beauty Parlour, Dalkala or Valyra might be, and at around the 10/1 mark I can pass. Much prefer the way Dalkala and Valyra have found their way into this race.
I've had another go at the Pouliches and tbh I just don't like the look of the race. Soumi was hoping BP would win doing handstands, which she clearly didn't, and I'm not sure the form's all that good. UP looks like she might find a bit for another two furlongs, although there's plenty of speed in her pedigree, but I have to say I'd be pretty disappointed if she went and won on Sunday. She's certainly no superstar, as Beauty Parlour, Dalkala or Valyra might be, and at around the 10/1 mark I can pass. Much prefer the way Dalkala and Valyra have found their way into this race.
Interesting that you don't rate the form of the Pouliches, HT. The pace was good, and unusual for French racing, there were no hard luck stories. Also, the 9th horse (Samitar) has since come out and won the Irish Guineas, and the 5th horse (Fire Lily) won a group race in Ireland a few days ago.
Another snippet from that race you might have overlooked. Up was drawn 14 of 14, on the wide outside, which probably reduced her chances of winning the race (over an inadequate trip) to almost zero. To be forced wide for the early part of the race, before managing to sit in at the back of the field, then finish the race weaving between horses with a tremendous late run, makes her performance even more meritorious.
I rest my case, your honour.
Another snippet from that race you might have overlooked. Up was drawn 14 of 14, on the wide outside, which probably reduced her chances of winning the race (over an inadequate trip) to almost zero. To be forced wide for the early part of the race, before managing to sit in at the back of the field, then finish the race weaving between horses with a tremendous late run, makes her performance even more meritorious.
I rest my case, your honour.
Sintonian, Kissed does go. Joseph has been jocked up and that usually signals that a BD horse is going to run, can't recall a horse having a jockey put up and then not running for APOB. Moore is on Up.
Yes it appears so. Ryan Moore is quite sweet on her in his BF column fwiw.
RP 16/6 The going at Chantilly was officially very soft yesterday with unsettled forecast.
"I think we'll see very cloying ground" said Jean-claude Rouget who saddles 3 runners for Aga Khan.
"I think we'll see very cloying ground" said Jean-claude Rouget who saddles 3 runners for Aga Khan.
Well having nailed the French Derby winner I'm sure you are all eagerly awaiting my input.
Thought Beatuty Parlour won the Pouliches pretty comfortably but at odds on, on potentially very bad ground there is no way she's a bet - imo they should have gone for the Coronation at Ascot where she would have been a genuine odds on shot.
The Aga's 3 runners all look interesting but which is the best
- I'd have to prefer Dalkala based on her last run (and the 1st jockey has picked her) but I can understand people backing 2 or even all 3 of them at the prices.
I may do a small stakes saver on Dalkala at around 9/1 but at the prices I think Trois Lunes at 40/1+ is worth a little bet. Like the French Derby winner she hails from a small unfashionable stable and after what happened to the odds of my selection in the French Derby I'll also have a bit on at Betfair SP.
Thought Beatuty Parlour won the Pouliches pretty comfortably but at odds on, on potentially very bad ground there is no way she's a bet - imo they should have gone for the Coronation at Ascot where she would have been a genuine odds on shot.
The Aga's 3 runners all look interesting but which is the best
- I'd have to prefer Dalkala based on her last run (and the 1st jockey has picked her) but I can understand people backing 2 or even all 3 of them at the prices.I may do a small stakes saver on Dalkala at around 9/1 but at the prices I think Trois Lunes at 40/1+ is worth a little bet. Like the French Derby winner she hails from a small unfashionable stable and after what happened to the odds of my selection in the French Derby I'll also have a bit on at Betfair SP.
Gentlemen ,apologies for throwing a few brass tacks into this interesting even elevated discussion , but did not Kissed beat Arras by 8l lTO and did not Arras beat the Oaks winner 'Was' ( who was not given a gentle ride ) on her first run of the Season.She is by a Darshan mare and will probably be even more effective over , 12f but the soft ground will aid her cause ...hail to whoever can pass her !
^ Forgot to mention the O'Brien horses - Kissed is definitely the best of those and as you say really wants 12f. Given what can happen in the French classics I think her chance will be maximized if she is ridden very handy, maybe even makes all. After what happened to Imperial Monarch in the French Derby hopefully Joseph has learnt something and won't try to ride every horse as if it's Camelot.
Won't be surprised if she wins but at 7/2 she's not my sort of price.
Won't be surprised if she wins but at 7/2 she's not my sort of price.
To be fair....Beauty Parlour may improve again for this step up in trip.
Sire was a triple crown winner but the Japanese Guineas is over 10furlongs not 1 mile.
DamSire was top notch at 10furlongs.
Dam won over 10f and a half sister to an ultra tough battler that made all to win the Cox Plate, Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.
Don't think there's an issue with her getting the trip but it will be insteresting to see if the battling qualities apparent in her dam sire line shine through when the others challenge her.
_______
the main negative is that Odd On leaves you no outs with Christophe 'let me see how difficult I can make this for myself but still win' Soumillon on board.
At least in stall 9 he wont be buried in on the inside and have a clear shot at the lead in the straight.
Sire was a triple crown winner but the Japanese Guineas is over 10furlongs not 1 mile.
DamSire was top notch at 10furlongs.
Dam won over 10f and a half sister to an ultra tough battler that made all to win the Cox Plate, Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.
Don't think there's an issue with her getting the trip but it will be insteresting to see if the battling qualities apparent in her dam sire line shine through when the others challenge her.
_______
the main negative is that Odd On leaves you no outs with Christophe 'let me see how difficult I can make this for myself but still win' Soumillon on board.
At least in stall 9 he wont be buried in on the inside and have a clear shot at the lead in the straight.
btw for PMU betting...coupling is:
Aga Khan - Sagawara, Valyra and Dalkala
Gerard Augustin Normard - Forces of Darkness and Leaupartie
Coolmore - Kissed, Up and Petite Nobleese
Wildenstein - Beauty Parlour and Best of All.
Leaves Rjwa and Trois Lunes as the only uncoupled horses.
In case anyone wants to mix it up...
Aga Khan - Sagawara, Valyra and Dalkala
Gerard Augustin Normard - Forces of Darkness and Leaupartie
Coolmore - Kissed, Up and Petite Nobleese
Wildenstein - Beauty Parlour and Best of All.
Leaves Rjwa and Trois Lunes as the only uncoupled horses.
In case anyone wants to mix it up...
How much of a killer is the draw for the three Coolmore hopes anyone? I know Saonois was drawn in 16 but will it have an effect here?
WOWEE WOWEE!!!..Headmaster merci beaucoup mon ami!
Makfi at 100 and now this snorter..great stuff!
Makfi at 100 and now this snorter..great stuff!
well done lads hope you got plenty
the problem for me is I still dont know how good the filly Up is, I suspect she is very good but hasnt had the chance to prove it yet
one day hopefully she will get a decent draw and a proper ride
the problem for me is I still dont know how good the filly Up is, I suspect she is very good but hasnt had the chance to prove it yet
one day hopefully she will get a decent draw and a proper ride
Cheers fellas, I was a tad worried about my 'form' going into the race - namely that I've managed to crack our kitchen sink today 
but VALYRA 
has sorted that out!
I'm thinking a Platinum number with Gold taps. Tasteful, eh?!?
but VALYRA has sorted that out!I'm thinking a Platinum number with Gold taps. Tasteful, eh?!?
aobballydoyle @aobballydoyle
Kissed sustained a fracture of the sesamoid bones of her left fore at Chantilly today. She is comfortable and will now be retired to stud.
Kissed sustained a fracture of the sesamoid bones of her left fore at Chantilly today. She is comfortable and will now be retired to stud.
Why was it not reported in our only racing daily, that VALYRA
was submitted at a cost of 55000 euros?
was submitted at a cost of 55000 euros?
Thats a pity with kissed.
You could she something was not right!
You could she something was not right!
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