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THE IRISH DERBY. IMP MONARCH 12/1
THE IRISH DERBY. IMP MONARCH 12/1
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Replies: 112
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lots of horses have breaks after big races.
the point about running him on Soft is a valid one however. Imperial Monarch won on Heavy at Sandown. |
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reckon they're sure to run him on Soft, handled it well at Newmarket, not sure what they'd do if it was Heavy though.
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Who was the last winner of the Irish Derby to go on to win the St Leger, Nijinsky in 1970 ?
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Born To Sea, still a possible for the Irish Derby.
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it was push
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Therefore odds of 1-3 for Camelot to win the St Leger, looks a short price.
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winning the Irish Derby on way to Triple Crown wouldnt add a whole lot more to his stud prospects,Coolmore have that many good horses ya'd think they'd want to get some Grp 1s for some of the others,IM would prob win on Sat if Camelot didnt run,it looks a good opportunity for him but it remains to be seen what they do
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Need more evidence than that Push! How many Irish Derby winners have actually gone on to try the St.Leger?
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I remember Frozen Fire, but then Scorpion just got beaten in the Irish Derby went on to win the St Leger, Shergar was the most notable to fail. If you look through the list of Irish Derby winners most did NOT run in the St Leger.
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412- 1 Akeed Mofeed (GB)(112) (JMOxx) - . . 9,00
33-13 2 Astrology(115) (APO'Brien) - . ............ 9,00 12-05 3 Born To Sea(112) (JMOxx) - . ............. 9,00 11-23 4 Call To Battle(105) (JMOxx) - . ........... 9,00 11-11 5 Camelot (GB)(124) (APO'Brien) - . ...... 9,00 0-1p4 6 Daddy Long Legs (USA)(114) (APO'Brien) - . .............. 9,00 51 7 Father Of Science (APO'Brien) - . ..... 9,00 1-18 8 Imperial Monarch (APO'Brien) - . ...... 9,00 144-5 9 Learn(105) (APO'Brien) - . ................... 9,00 2-111 10 Light Heavy(109) (JSBolger) - . .......... 9,00 211 11 Speaking Of Which(116) (DKWeld) - . .................................... 9,00 |
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How many do we reckon will line up ?
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5/6 imo
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most bookmakers only offering 2 places
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A lot of rain in the last ten days (mostly at night) in the vicinity of Ballydoyle. I advise waiting for the overnights on Friday before a punt, unless you fancy an outsider.
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what difference would that make toberaheena?would the weather at the curragh not be more important?
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A Freudian slip with the Ballydoyle weather comment, methinks.
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more rain due in Kildare
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Born to Sea looks to be a runner
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Dont think Camelot would want bad ground, if it came up heavy, 1/4 big players beware.
Bet w/o the fav would be of interest, Imperial Monarch, what price? |
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ground at the curragh is yielding at the minute,dont know how much rain is required to make it heavy,some showers have been forecast and there has been some rain but by no means a downpour,next couple days will tell a lot,IM would have to be short price in the w/o betting
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Soft ground at Newmarket didn't cause any problems, if there were any they'd surely have shown up there, over a wrong trip. True it's a horse race, and nothing is certain, but this looks as close to a formality as is possible.
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Soft ground at Newmarket is very different to what could be heavy ground at the Curragh and whilst he may well go on it, will Coolmore want to race him on it and prefer to keep him fresh for other targets? - always the chance it could take more out of him than ideal.
And soft ground at Newmarket made it more of a stamina test than it could have been and that is what helped Camelot overcome the potential concerns of having the speed to win a Guineas. IM is a ready made replacement for Camelot and could give them another Classic winning stallion. However if Camelot does turn up its hard to see him beaten and my e/w play on SOW looks in real peril on the likely ground, may not even run |
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The going at HQ was Soft but it is still nothing like Heavy in Ireland. Remember Sariskas Oaks when EVERYTHING in the race was totally phucked after 1 mile, barring the winner who just cruised in on the bridle.
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If it turns into a war do we think Light Heavy appeals as the sort of horse you'd want on side?
While he's, by a long way, the most likley winner, I'm not totally sold on Camelot as the next big thing just yet. Can anyone convince me his form is worthy of a multiple Group 1 winner? |
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I'd have thought that Coolemore would want to take the Irish Derby with Camelot and his next race would be the St Leger. So You Think goes for the Eclipse and St Nic is the King George rep. No way will he (Camelot) go to York against Frankel and as a son of Montjeu, whatever connections say, the ground, and certainly not the opposition, shouldn't pose too many concerns, but, as always, it is horse racing and it is Coolemore, so no one can be totally sure.
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Irish Derby runners & riders 7 declared
Akeed Mofeed-William Buick Born to Sea-Johnny Murtagh - Camelot-Joseph O'Brien - Astrology-Seamie Heffernan - Imperial Monarch-Colm O'Donoghue - Light Heavy-Kevin Manning - Speaking of Which-Pat Smullen - . |
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I'm surprised to see IM in the field. Are they really going to supply the fav's biggest danger???
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Racing Post @Racing_Post Ground at the Curragh now soft, heavy in places on Thursday morning following 20mm of rain overnight. Had been yielding. Was surprised too, we've had serious rain last night tho, will they risk Camelot on heavy if the rain keeps at it  |
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Agreed, still think one will come out. May save Camelot for next weekend?
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Surely there's no way in the world they'd field IM if they thought he was capable of upsetting Camelot. IMO either they don't think he's up to it, or someone's going to be pulled by post time.
20/1 Light Heavy is a big price imvho. |
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surprised Astrology is running after last week,trainer of SOW says any more rain would make him doubtful for race,could go off with as few as 5 runners
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on horse racing forum, race time 7.40[:
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Yep, 7:40 ej. For those of us partial to delayed gratification it's quite a pleasing off time
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how will that affect the going come the final race if its soft to begin with?do they have a facility to move the rail at the Curragh?
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Yeah it does seem a strange time to run a classic but there you go
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Was a strange decision to run the race at an evening meeting, but the last race on the card, ffs! Doesn't seem right. As for Imperial Monarch, why not 1st and 2nd, if he finishes 2nd and goes on to enhance his reputation, elsewhere, he'd be doing a job for Camelot, too, wouldn't he?
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Astrology could well have been left in to under take pacemaking duties, except this time with Heffernan on board the plan will
probably be to get away quick then slam the brakes on. Unless Manning then goes on on light heavy ,they could go slow. Their not going to beat Camelot for speed . |
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I would be very interested on heavy ground at the curragh on a small tickle interested on Astrology tbh! Theres far worse 33/1 shots and these kinda shocks happen in Irish classics and top races often imo! He ran like a drain lto but i think that was due to him still feeling the effects of Epsom. Or perhaps just an off day or even more risky to say, coolmore as dodgy as sometimes they seem, just didnt want him to run to merit that day?
Easy lead, Heffernan putting brakes on, heavy ground, others getting stuck in mud could all lead to a surprise result and Astrology is no slouch! Gl all  |
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didnt want him to run to merit that day, fav at royal ascot, slanderous accusations sea the stars
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AOB saddled the 1st,2md and 3rd last year. Maybe that has something to do with it.
For me though IM has enough ability,based on his thrupping of Thought Worhty as Sandown, to give Camelot a race. So therefore, im expecting one or tother to be pulled out once the ground is known for sure. |