THE IRISH DERBY. IMP MONARCH 12/1

To explain, Princess Highway could serve it up and reading between the lines I think they believe SoW is as good if not better.

I know and I won't go overboard, but unless it gets injured has to pitch up surely?

In all likelihood he will,yeah. Just saying tread carefully like!

If I ruled the world PH would have been supp'd into the Oaks and SoW would have got the same treatment for the Derby.

If SoW goes and wins at the Curragh again I will not be amused!

SoW is prob 50/50 to turn up at the Curragh,not many Invincible Spirits get 1m4f although Weld has won the race before and knows what it takes,great win for him today.Doubt Astrology will turn up as he's running tmrw but a little more confident IM will now that he's been taken out of Ascot race.Could be a small field Saturday week.

you really think they'll run him and IM? What about the Group1 over 1m4f this weekend in France? Is he in that?

Camelot & IM ..

Just had a little go at VC ew at 12s...Spoils gone 14s to 8s

Sint, the GP de St Cloud this weekend is for older horses only. Looks a hot race though: Cirrus des Aigles, Danedream, Galikova, Meandre, Shareta

PoW also entered in a Grp3 over 1m2 day after the Derby,that may be more up his street,14s to 8s IM is a bit of move although hard to see Astrology(turning into another At First Sight after today)or Parish Hall running,when are the declarations out?

If the ground comes up G-F , 14-1 about "Speaking Of Which", would look good value .

How many runners here?

Camelot
a Couple of stable rags
Speaking of Which

what else?

might be doing well to get 5 or 6 runners,some firms not quoting some runners yet there plenty are entered,some rain forecast in Kildare rest of wk,not sure how that would leave the ground come Saturday.

Light Heavy for Bolger another.

ya'd imagine he'll turn up alright

Could Shantaram go over given he missed Ascot ..

it would have to be doubtful,very rarely ya get foreign raiders for the Irish Derby

Dunno. Carlton House last year. There's been a few.

ah not many end up having much luck when they try,John Hammond and Andre Fabre only ones in recent past I can think of

and they were coolmore owned.Darley supplemented monterosso last year unsuccessfully

Akeed mofeed will run to Id say

Dermot Weld on ATR just now saying he epxects a big run  from SOW provided the going is decent.

interesting that,reading the papers this morning Oxx added that stamina wont be issue for Light Heavy and seems the better of the two between Akeed Mofeed

Pardon? Akeed Mofeed is indded trained by Oxx, but Light Heavy is trained by Bolger

what was I saying,Call to Battle rather

Bad forecast given here for the end of the week - will be soft imo

Interesting to see, if it is really bad ground, whether they would run Camelot. Might prove that the OP got it right

it would yeah,also interesting that when interviewed during wk J o'Brien said Camelot hadnt done anything since Epsom,surely he'd have to be doing something for the Curragh?wont be any easier on soft ground either

lots of horses have breaks after big races.

the point about running him on Soft is a valid one however. Imperial Monarch won on Heavy at Sandown.

reckon they're sure to run him on Soft, handled it well at Newmarket, not sure what they'd do if it was Heavy though.

Who was the last winner of the Irish Derby to go on to win the St Leger, Nijinsky in 1970 ?

Born To Sea, still a possible for the Irish Derby.

it was push

Therefore odds of 1-3 for Camelot to win the St Leger, looks a short price.

winning the Irish Derby on way to Triple Crown wouldnt add a whole lot more to his stud prospects,Coolmore have that many good horses ya'd think they'd want to get some Grp 1s for some of the others,IM would prob win on Sat if Camelot didnt run,it looks a good opportunity for him but it remains to be seen what they do

Need more evidence than that Push! How many Irish Derby winners have actually gone on to try the St.Leger?

I remember Frozen Fire, but then Scorpion just got beaten in the Irish Derby went on to win the St Leger, Shergar was the most notable to fail. If you look through the list of Irish Derby winners most did NOT  run in the St Leger.

412- 1 Akeed Mofeed (GB)(112) (JMOxx) - . . 9,00
33-13 2 Astrology(115) (APO'Brien) - . ............ 9,00
12-05 3 Born To Sea(112) (JMOxx) - . ............. 9,00
11-23 4 Call To Battle(105) (JMOxx) - . ........... 9,00
11-11 5 Camelot (GB)(124) (APO'Brien) - . ...... 9,00
0-1p4 6 Daddy Long Legs (USA)(114)
(APO'Brien) - . .............. 9,00
51 7 Father Of Science (APO'Brien) - . ..... 9,00
1-18 8 Imperial Monarch (APO'Brien) - . ...... 9,00
144-5 9 Learn(105) (APO'Brien) - . ................... 9,00
2-111 10 Light Heavy(109) (JSBolger) - . .......... 9,00
211 11 Speaking Of Which(116) (DKWeld) -
. .................................... 9,00

How many do we reckon will line up ?

5/6 imo

most bookmakers only offering 2 places

A lot of rain in the last ten days (mostly at night) in the vicinity of Ballydoyle. I advise waiting for the overnights on Friday before a punt, unless you fancy an outsider.

what difference would that make toberaheena?would the weather at the curragh not be more important?

A Freudian slip with the Ballydoyle weather comment, methinks.

more rain due in Kildare

Born to Sea looks to be a runner

Dont think Camelot would want bad ground, if it came up heavy, 1/4 big players beware.
Bet w/o the fav would be of interest, Imperial Monarch, what price?

ground at the curragh is yielding at the minute,dont know how much rain is required to make it heavy,some showers have been forecast and there has been some rain but by no means a downpour,next couple days will tell a lot,IM would have to be short price in the w/o betting

Soft ground at Newmarket didn't cause any problems, if there were any they'd surely have shown up there, over a wrong trip. True it's a horse race, and nothing is certain, but this looks as close to a formality as is possible.

Soft ground at Newmarket is very different to what could be heavy ground at the Curragh and whilst he may well go on it, will Coolmore want to race him on it and prefer to keep him fresh for other targets? - always the chance it could take more out of him than ideal.

And soft ground at Newmarket made it more of a stamina test than it could have been and that is what helped Camelot overcome the potential concerns of having the speed to win a Guineas.

IM is a ready made replacement for Camelot and could give them another Classic winning stallion.

However if Camelot does turn up its hard to see him beaten and my e/w play on SOW looks in real peril on the likely ground, may not even run

The going at HQ was Soft but it is still nothing like Heavy in Ireland. Remember Sariskas Oaks when EVERYTHING in the race was totally phucked after 1 mile, barring the winner who just cruised in on the bridle.

If it turns into a war do we think Light Heavy appeals as the sort of horse you'd want on side?

While he's, by a long way, the most likley winner, I'm not totally sold on Camelot as the next big thing just yet.  Can anyone convince me his form is worthy of a multiple Group 1 winner?

I'd have thought that Coolemore would want to take the Irish Derby with Camelot and his next race would be the St Leger. So You Think goes for the Eclipse and St Nic is the King George rep. No way will he (Camelot) go to York against Frankel and as a son of Montjeu, whatever connections say, the ground, and certainly not the opposition, shouldn't pose too many concerns, but, as always, it is horse racing and it is Coolemore, so no one can be totally sure.

Irish Derby runners & riders 7 declared

Akeed Mofeed-William Buick

Born to Sea-Johnny Murtagh -

Camelot-Joseph O'Brien -

Astrology-Seamie Heffernan -

Imperial Monarch-Colm O'Donoghue -

Light Heavy-Kevin Manning - 

Speaking of Which-Pat Smullen - .

I'm surprised to see IM in the field.  Are they really going to supply the fav's biggest danger???

Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
Ground at the Curragh now soft, heavy in places on Thursday morning following 20mm of rain overnight. Had been yielding.


Was surprised too, we've had serious rain last night tho, will they risk Camelot on heavy if the rain keeps at it

Agreed, still think one will come out. May save Camelot for next weekend?

Surely there's no way in the world they'd field IM if they thought he was capable of upsetting Camelot.  IMO either they don't think he's up to it, or someone's going to be pulled by post time.

20/1 Light Heavy is a big price imvho.

surprised Astrology is running after last week,trainer of SOW says any more rain would make him doubtful for race,could go off with as few as 5 runners

on horse racing forum, race time 7.40[: :],

Yep, 7:40 ej.  For those of us partial to delayed gratification it's quite a pleasing off time

how will that affect the going come the final race if its soft to begin with?do they have a facility to move the rail at the Curragh?

Yeah it does seem a strange time to run a classic but there you go

Was a strange decision to run the race at an evening meeting, but the last race on the card, ffs! Doesn't seem right. As for Imperial Monarch, why not 1st and 2nd, if he finishes 2nd and goes on to enhance his reputation, elsewhere, he'd be doing a job for Camelot, too, wouldn't he?

Astrology could well have been left in to under take pacemaking duties, except this time with Heffernan on board the plan will
probably be to get away quick then slam the brakes on. Unless Manning then goes on on light heavy ,they could go slow. Their not going to beat
Camelot for speed .

I would be very interested on heavy ground at the curragh on a small tickle interested on Astrology tbh! Theres far worse 33/1 shots and these kinda shocks happen in Irish classics and top races often imo! He ran like a drain lto but i think that was due to him still feeling the effects of Epsom. Or perhaps just an off day or even more risky to say, coolmore as dodgy as sometimes they seem, just didnt want him to run to merit that day?

Easy lead, Heffernan putting brakes on, heavy ground, others getting stuck in mud could all lead to a surprise result and Astrology is no slouch!

Gl all

didnt want him to run to merit that day, fav at royal ascot, slanderous accusations sea the stars,

AOB saddled the 1st,2md and 3rd last year. Maybe that has something to do with it.

For me though IM has enough ability,based on his thrupping of Thought Worhty as Sandown, to give Camelot a race. So therefore, im expecting one or tother to be pulled out once the ground is known for sure.

think present ground would suit IM better,there has been money for IM with B oyles 5s and PP 11/2 today from 7s

Graham Cunningham ‏@gcunning12
AO'B on RTERadio: "We were shoeing Imperial Monarch just now and he hd a little pulse in his foot, so we hope that won't turn into anything"


BY TONY O'HEHIR
AIDAN O'BRIEN said on Friday that the ground at the Curragh will "not be ideal" for Camelot when he bids for his second Derby victory in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby on Saturday. ( 1 hour ago)

ground still soft/heavy in places,what exactly is a pulse in the foot?whats the worse that can happen?

Throbbing, usually accompanied with heat as a result of strain, cut, and/or infection.

Camelot might not run.


Curragh hoping for drier weather ahead of Camelot run in Irish Derby

• Bookies fear favourite may be pulled out if conditions worsen
• Going at track is currently soft with heavy patches after rain
Will Hayler

guardian.co.uk, Thursday 28 June 2012 18.45 BST


At the home of Irish Flat racing, they were moving everything including the running rail to try and ensure the best possible ground for Saturday's Irish Derby, but concerns remain that favourite Camelot may miss the race after rain left the going soft, heavy in places on Thursday.

The racecourse manager, Paul Hensey, was pleased with a positive weather forecast and said that the race programme had been arranged to provide as much fresh ground as possible for the Derby runners.

"It's been a dry, sunny day with a good wind getting up and if we get another one of those on Friday, we'll be improving quickly," he said. "The Curragh is a very quick-drying course. I remember when John Oxx pulled Sea The Stars out of the race a couple of years ago after we had some very heavy rain a couple of days before the meeting, it was near enough perfect ground by the time of the race.

"We have 12 metres of fresh ground kept up our sleeves railed off for the Derby from the start of the race to the six-furlong marker and the runners will be on the stands side for the races on the straight course."

However despite Hensey's optimism, fears that the Aidan O'Brien-trained Epsom Derby winner could bypass the contest were stoked by the decision of two bookmakers not to offer prices.

"I'm sure Aidan will walk the course when he has runners here on Friday evening," said Hensey. "John Oxx and Dermot Weld both train on The Curragh and know the track as well as anyone, so they will know where they stand."

Ladbrokes spokesman David Williams pointed to uncertainty over whether Camelot would be allowed to line up unless conditions improved, with O'Brien having stated before that he would prefer to avoid "extremes of going".

"When you have a 1-4 favourite for a seven-runner race, the amount of trade is going to be very light until much nearer the race in any case, so we decided that with question marks over Camelot's participation in testing conditions, it would be better to wait and see before offering prices," said Williams.

Camelot was one of three horses declared by O'Brien for the contest with Imperial Monarch and the hard-working Astrology, third behind Camelot at Epsom before disappointing at Royal Ascot last week, also left in.

William Buick will make a new link-up when partnering Oxx's Akeed Mofeed, with stable jockey Johnny Murtagh choosing to partner Born To Sea in preference.

"I'm very happy to get such a nice ride and I'm really looking forward to it," said Buick. "It's a real pleasure to get these call-ups, to be riding for such a nice firm and on such a good horse."

Meterological matters were also foremost at other tracks. Cards at Leicester and Tipperary on Thursday were called off, while an electrical storm and torrential rain at Newcastle resulted in the meeting being abandoned after four races. The Newcastle fixture was the first day of a three-day meeting featuring Saturday's Northumberland Plate. The clerk of the course, James Armstrong, was also forced to abandon Friday's scheduled action and will hope for a change of luck in the next 24 hours.

"This is the big event of the year for us," he said. "We gear everything towards these three days. I just hope we can salvage something."

Adam Kirby's first Royal Ascot winner came at a cost when the jockey was handed a 21-day suspension after his Norfolk Stakes ride aboard Reckless Abandon was referred to the British Horseracing Authority.

Kirby became the first jockey to clock up five suspensions for whip offences within a 12-month period, the trigger for a referral to the BHA. His ban mirrored the recommended "entry level" punishment.

"The revised whip rules have now been in place for almost four months and we are very encouraged by the results both in respect of how jockeys have adapted to the rules and how the rules have worked and been applied by the Stewards," said BHA director Jamie Stier.

"The 21-day suspension issued to Adam Kirby illustrates the measures we have in place to identify and punish repeat offenders while ensuring that individual penalties remain proportionate for the offence.

"We are in a good place currently. We can be robust in responding to any criticism from animal welfare or animal rights parties as there is not a welfare problem with use of the whip under the current rules, which at the same time do not inhibit competitive and exciting racing.

"To remain in such a position, we are looking to the jockeys to continue to respect the rules and penalties in place, otherwise we would have to review the penalty structure if the current deterrents proved ineffective."

12/1 eway looks an amazing bet now. If camelot is withdrawn, this colt will go off at 6/4.

Yep certainly sounds like Camelot N/R.

Paddys go 4s now

maybe more importantly magic sign still standout top price on IM and shortest on camelot

S.O.W. gone

aobballydoyle ‏@aobballydoyle
Camelot will run in this evenings Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby.
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1m Greg Wood ‏@Greg_Wood_
Imperial Monarch out of the #irishderby

what a horrible stable this is

Eclipse for Imperial ?

Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
Ground rules Imperial Monarch out of the Irish Derby but red-hot favourite Camelot will bid for Derby double in the Curragh Classic .

Could never see them running the two against each other.

shame he's not running lads must have known before it was announced,may well run at sandown if there is some ease in ground

Apologies if I'm boring anyone (!) but my guess is the Grand Prix de Paris next for IM.  Would be wary of backing him for any all-aged Group 1 in the next month.

could well be right TH,some rain expected in paris next wk too

They obviously feel that the horse is not that classy, even with the ground in his favour.

More worried about mindin Camelots unbeaten record imo

I disagree bjg. If they rated this horse highly, camelot would surely not be running.

AOB did say that they found something small wrong with his hoof, so might be something to do with that as well

hard to know,seemed ok when asked on morning line but as uncle said may not have wanted them taking each other on

Said at the very beginning of the thread both would not run. IM is good enough to give the Fav a race. He is gagging for 12f so cant see the Eclipse being a target.

No idea why they gave the reason as the ground though when they said it was unsuitbale for Camelot.

They would not want to take on SYT in the Eclipse either btw, imo.

I also think this small ''pulse'' in the foot is completely made up. They were simply waiting to see if the Ground was suitbale for their ''wonder horse'' and were setting up a ready make excuse to pull it out. Cynical eh?

tend to agree sint,think IM is going to win a race soon though,who knows could end up a contender for the Arc on soft ground,Irish Champion Stakes may also be a target closer to home

They obviously had no intentions of running them both. Not on that ground anyway.

barney curley bloody saint compared with what this lot get up to imo

Be amazed if IC dosen't run in the Grand Prix De Paris - if he was fit I think he'd have won today.

Camelot won but hardly did anything to enhance his reputation which is based on beating a load of very bad 3 year olds. Thats presumably why they are going for the Triple Crown rather than taking on some decent older horses over 10f/12f. Admittedly most of those older horses are in the same ownership.

Is Born To Sea in the King George - ideal race for him imo with the weight for age.

agree IM would have handled the ground no problem going on his sandown run,born to sea ran a cracker,the urban sea influence over the trip along with fact invincible spirits handle ease in ground worked well today not many of them get the trip seemed to get it ok today,maybe 1m2f is about right her him.looking forward to seeing IM running soon,he could be the one to keep things ticking over while camelot is on a break

They wont run IM in the Eclipse because of SYT. And they wont run him in the King George because of SNA.

So to France it is imo ..

He would have loved that ground today thats why they took him out!

not sure how confident I'd be backing him in the GPdP even he got his conditions,o'Brien doesnt have best of records over there and Fabre can be hard to bet against