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Shrews
09 Jun 12 22:41
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Date Joined: 24 Dec 03
| Topic/replies: 288 | Blogger: Shrews's blog
There are 442 entries for next years Derby and the vast majority haven't even ran yet. But it occurred to me that Montjeu had been repsonsible for siring 3 of the last 6 winners so I decided to take a look at next years entries and search out any that might be worth following, just for a bit of fun

Trainers with multiple winners in the last 20 years
Aidan O'Brien 3 (Galileo, High Chaparral, Camelot)
Sir Michael Stoute 3 (Kris Kin, North Light, Workforce)
John Oxx 2 (Sinndar, Sea The Stars)
Henry Cecil 2 (Commander In Chief, Oath)
Peter Chapple-Hyam 2 (Dr.Devious, Authorized)

Winning sires of the last 6 + 2 new Derby winning sires
Montjeu 3
Galileo 1
Cape Cross 1
Kings Best 1
New Approach
Authorized

Grandsire (either side, with connections to more than one of the above)
Sadlers Wells x 3(Montjeu, Galileo, Soviet Moon)
Kingmambo x 2 (Tarfah, Kings Best)

Other notables
Urban Sea was the dam of Sea The Stars and Grandam of New Approach and her sire was Miswaki
Also Ahonoora was the Grandsire of New Approach and the Great-Grandsire of Sea The Stars

Therefore any horse trained by O'Brien, Stoute, Oxx, Cecil, Chapple-Hyam that has any of these horses in its Racing Post visible profile for non-members - Montjeu, Galileo, Cape Cross, Kings Best, Sadlers Wells, Kingmambo, Miswaki, Ahonoora, New Approach, Authorized

This cuts the field back to the following (un-named horses begin with 00)

Unknown trainer
00Abhisheka (Sadlers Wells)
00daring Miss (Sadlers Wells)
00headline (New Approach)
00hush Money (New Approach)
00illustrious Miss (New Approach)
00innocent Air (Galileo)
00light Of Morn (Galileo)
00loving Kindness (New Approach)
00mayano Sophia (Montjeu)
00new morning (Sadlers Wells)
00novellara (Sadlers Wells)
00pleione (Sadlers Wells)
00plum Fairy (Sadlers Wells)
00ukraine (Cape Cross)
00valley Of Gold (New Approach)
00west Wind (Cape Cross)
Authorship (Authorized)
Breden (Miswaki)
Certification (Authorized)
Genius Boy (New Approach)
New Look (New Approach)
Restraint Of Trade (Authorized)
Samoset (Montjeu)
Space Ship (Galileo)

O'Brien
00beyondthedream (Montjeu)
00bowstring(Sadlers Wells)
00buck Aspen (Montjeu)
00catherine Lynton (Montjeu)
00chenchikova (Sadlers Wells)
00cherry Hinton (Montjeu)
00cozzenes Angel (Galileo)
00crazy Volume (Montjeu)
00d'Articleshore (Galileo)
00dance Parade (Montjeu)
00dietrich (Galileo)
00la Chunga (Galileo)
00last Love/Dei (Galileo)
00liscanna (Sadlers Wells)
00llia (Montjeu)
00mer De Corail (Sadlers Wells)
00metaphor (Montjeu)
00miss Bio (Galileo)
00moments Of Joy (Galileo)
00mona Lisa (Galileo)
00mora Bai (Galileo)
00spritza (Montjeu)
00vallee Des Eves (Galileo)
Ballyglasheen (Galileo)
Battle Of Marengo (Galileo)
Dei (Galileo)
Everglades Island (Montjeu)
Eye Of The Storm (Galileo)
Festive Cheer (Montjeu)
Finn McCool (Galileo)
Flying The Flag (Galileo)
Foundry (Galileo)
Francis Of Assisi (Galileo)
Illustrate (Galileo)
King George River (Sadlers Wells)
Kingdom (Montjeu)
Kingsbarns (Galileo)
Kingston Jamaica (Galileo)
Magician (Galileo)
Mars (Galileo)
Milestone (Galileo)
Montclair (Montjeu)
Navy Seal (Galileo)
North Dakota (Galileo)
Point Piper (Sadlers Wells)
Renew (Sadlers Wells)
Ruler Of The World (Galileo)
Sir Walter Scott (Galileo)
Smoke Screen (Montjeu)
The United States (Galileo)
The Vatican (Galileo)
Theatre (Galileo)
Twilight Zone (Sadlers Wells)
Victory Song (Sadlers Wells)
Waver (Galileo)

John Oxx
Winter Lion (Galileo)

Peter Chapple-Hyam
00bright Hope (Cape Cross)

Sir Michael Stoute
00allegretto (Galileo)
00kasora (Galileo)
00necklace (Galileo)
00velouette (Galileo)
Golden Touch (Galileo)
Russian Realm (Kingmambo)
Stomachion (Sadlers Wells)

Sir Henry Cecil
00dames Violet (New Approach)
00love Devine (Cape Cross)
Buchanan (Sadlers Wells)
Parallax (Galileo)
Phosphorescence (Kingmambo)


That cuts it down to 92

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Replies: 724
By:
Shrews
When: 09 Jun 12 22:42
Multiple winning owners of the last 20 years

2012, 2011 - Magnier/Tabor/Smith
2012, 2011 - Magnier/Tabor/Smith
2010, 1993 - Khallid Abdullah

So anything to do with them in any combination stay in the process

Unknown trainer
00daring Miss (Sadlers Wells) - Khallid Abdullah
00innocent Air (Galileo) - Khallid Abdulla
00novellara (Sadlers Wells) - Khallid Abdullah
00plum Fairy (Sadlers Wells) - Khallid Abdullah

O'Brien
00beyondthedream (Montjeu)
00bowstring(Sadlers Wells) - Mrs John Magnier
00buck Aspen (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor
00catherine Lynton (Montjeu) - Mrs John Magnier
00chenchikova (Sadlers Wells) - Mrs John Magnier
00cherry Hinton (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor
00cozzenes Angel (Galileo) - Michael Tabor
00crazy Volume (Montjeu) - Mrs John Magnier
00d'Articleshore (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier
00dance Parade (Montjeu) - Derrick Smith
00dietrich (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier
00la Chunga (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier
00liscanna (Sadlers Wells) - Michael Tabor
00llia (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor
00mer De Corail (Sadlers Wells) - Michael Tabor
00metaphor (Montjeu) - Mrs John Magnier
00miss Bio (Galileo) - Michael Tabor
00moments Of Joy (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier
00mona Lisa (Galileo) - Michael Tabor
00mora Bai (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
00spritza (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor
00vallee Des Eves (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
Battle Of Marengo (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
Dei (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier
Everglades Island (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor
Eye Of The Storm (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
Festive Cheer (Montjeu) - Derrick Smith
Finn McCool (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
Flying The Flag (Galileo) - Michael Tabor
Foundry (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier
Francis Of Assisi (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier
Illustrate (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier
King George River (Sadlers Wells) - Mrs John Magnier
Kingdom (Montjeu) - Derrick Smith
Kingsbarns (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier
Kingston Jamaica (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
Magician (Galileo) - Michael Tabor
Mars (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
Milestone (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
Montclair (Montjeu) - Derrick Smith
Navy Seal (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
North Dakota (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
Point Piper (Sadlers Wells) - Michael Tabor
Renew (Sadlers Wells) - Derrick Smith
Ruler Of The World (Galileo) - Michael Tabor
Sir Walter Scott (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
Smoke Screen (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor
The United States (Galileo) - Michael Tabor
The Vatican (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier
Theatre (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier/Michael Tabor/Niarchos Family
Twilight Zone (Sadlers Wells) - Michael Tabor
Victory Song (Sadlers Wells) - Mrs John Magnier
Waver (Galileo) - Michael Tabor
By:
Shrews
When: 09 Jun 12 22:43
Winning breeders of the last 20 years

Sheikh Abdulla Bin Isa Al-Khalifa - 2012
Lynch Bages Ltd - 2011
Juddmonte Farms Ltd - 2010
Sunderland Holdings - 2009
Lodge Park Stud - 2008
Marengo Investments And Knighton House Ltd And M - 2007
The Old Suffolk Stud - 2006
Deerfield Farm - 2005
Ballymacoll Stud Farm Ltd - 2004
Flaxman Holdings Ltd - 2003
S Coughlan - 2002
D Tsui And Orpendale - 2001
His Highness The Aga Khan's Studs S C - 2000
Mrs Max Morris - 1999
Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum - 1998
Landon Knight - 1997
Khalifa Abdulla Dasmal - 1996
Gainsborough Farm Inc - 1995
Shadwell Farm Inc, & Shadwell Estate Co Ltd - 1994
Juddmonte Farms - 1993

So the only multiple winner in the last 20 years is Juddmonte Farms, otherwise it's a new breeder every year. So to eliminate i'll keep Juddmonte Farms but eliminate any of the above breeders


Unknown trainer
00daring Miss (Sadlers Wells) - Judmonte Farms
00innocent Air (Galileo) - Judmonte Farms
00novellara (Sadlers Wells) - Judmonte Farms
00plum Fairy (Sadlers Wells) - Milsec Ltd

O'Brien
00beyondthedream (Montjeu) - Miss A Shaykhutdinova
00bowstring(Sadlers Wells) - Michael Ryan
00buck Aspen (Montjeu) - Paget Bloodstock
00catherine Lynton (Montjeu) - Catherine Linton Syndicate
00chenchikova (Sadlers Wells) - Chenchikova Syndicate
00cherry Hinton (Montjeu) - Roncon & Chelston
00d'Articleshore (Galileo) - Patrick Fahey
00dietrich (Galileo) - Southern Bloodstock
00la Chunga (Galileo) - La Chunga Syndicate
00liscanna (Sadlers Wells) - Western Bloodstock
00llia (Montjeu) - The Lavington Stud
00mer De Corail (Sadlers Wells) - Barronstown Stud
00miss Bio (Galileo) - Marie-Laure Collet Et Al
00moments Of Joy (Galileo) - Matrix Bloodstock
00mona Lisa (Galileo) - Storm Bloodstock
00mora Bai (Galileo) - Rhinestone Bloodstock
00spritza (Montjeu) - Mrs Clodagh McStay
00vallee Des Eves (Galileo) - The Vallee Des Reves Syndicate
Battle Of Marengo (Galileo) - Anna Karenina Syndicate
Dei (Galileo) - Commonwealth
Eye Of The Storm (Galileo) - K Molloy
Festive Cheer (Montjeu) - Soc Agr Gem S R L & December Bloodstock
Finn McCool (Galileo) - Quay Bloodstock
Flying The Flag (Galileo) - Orpendale, Chelston & Wynatt
Foundry (Galileo) - Smithfield Inc
Francis Of Assisi (Galileo) - Queen Cleopatra Syndicate
Illustrate (Galileo) - G A E And J Smith Bloodstock Ltd
King George River (Sadlers Wells) - Barronstown Stud
Kingsbarns (Galileo) - Mrs Ann Marie O'Brien
Magician (Galileo) - Absolutelyfabulous Syndicate
Mars (Galileo) - Massarra Syndicate
Milestone (Galileo) - Barronstown Stud
Montclair (Montjeu) - Elisabeth Fabre
Navy Seal (Galileo) - Round Hill Stud
North Dakota (Galileo) - Derrick Smith
Point Piper (Sadlers Wells) - Quay Bloodstock And The Niarchos Family
Renew (Sadlers Wells) - Premier Bloodstock
Ruler Of The World (Galileo) - Southern Bloodstock
Smoke Screen (Montjeu) - W & R Barnett Ltd & Amarvilas Bldstock
The United States (Galileo) - Beauty Is Truth Syndicate
The Vatican (Galileo) - Macquarie
Theatre (Galileo) - Orpendale And The Niarchos Fam
Twilight Zone (Sadlers Wells) - Premier Bloodstock
Victory Song (Sadlers Wells) - Orpendale
Waver (Galileo) - Nell Gwynn Syndicate
By:
Shrews
When: 09 Jun 12 22:43
So that cuts it down to 49 horses. Next eliminator is it's dosage profile.
00daring Miss
00innocent Air
00novellara
00plum Fairy
00beyondthedream
00bowstring
00buck Aspen
00catherine Linton
00chenchikova
00cherry Hinton
00d'Articleshore
00dietrich
00la Chunga
00liscanna
00llia
00mer De Corail
00miss Bio
00moments Of Joy
00mona Lisa
00mora Bai
00spritza
00vallee Des Eves
Battle Of Marengo
Dei
Eye Of The Storm
Festive Cheer
Finn McCool
Flying The Flag
Foundry
Francis Of Assisi
Illustrate
King George River
Kingsbarns
Magician
Mars
Milestone
Montclair
Navy Seal
North Dakota
Point Piper
Renew
Ruler Of The World
Smoke Screen
The United States
The Vatican
Theatre
Twilight Zone
Victory Song
Waver


The 1st dosage eliminator is the horses 'Brilliant' points. The highest 'Brilliant' points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 8 (Motivator) with the lowest being 1 (Sir Percy)

Eliminated : Ruler Of The World (9)


The 2nd dosage eliminator is the horses 'Intermediate' points. The highest 'Intermediate' points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 4 (North Light, Kris Kin) with the lowest being 0 (Pour Moi, New Approach, Authorized, Sir Percy)

Eliminated : 00mora Bai (8), North Dakota (13)

The 3rd dosage eliminator is the horses 'Classic' points. The highest 'Classic' points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 23 (Kris Kin) with the lowest being 5 (Sir Percy)

Eliminated : 00liscanna (27), Point Piper (27)

The 4th dosage eliminator is the horses 'Solid' points. The highest 'Solid' points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 8 (Camelot) with the lowest being 0 (Sea The Stars)

Eliminated : None

The 5th dosage eliminator is the horses 'Professional' points. The highest 'Professional' points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 3 (Sir Percy) with the lowest being 0 (Camelot, Workforce, Sea The Stars, New Approach, Authorized, Motivator, Kris Kin)

Eliminated : 00llia (4), Eye Of The Storm (4), Finn McCool (4)

Cutting the field back to 41
By:
Shrews
When: 09 Jun 12 22:44
So the 41 left are :

00daring Miss
00innocent Air
00novellara
00plum Fairy
00beyondthedream
00bowstring
00buck Aspen
00catherine Linton
00chenchikova
00cherry Hinton
00d'Articleshore
00dietrich
00la Chunga
00mer De Corail
00miss Bio
00moments Of Joy
00mona Lisa
00vallee Des Eves
Battle Of Marengo
Dei
Foundry
Francis Of Assisi
King George River
Kingsbarns
Mars
Montclair
Navy Seal
Renew
Smoke Screen
The United States
The Vatican
Theatre
Twilight Zone
Victory Song
Waver

If we break the dosage points down further we get the following

Brilliant (points of the last 10 Derby winners)
1 x1
2 x0
3 x0
4 x4
5 x2
6 x1
7 x1
8 x1

Therefore I think we can eliminate any horse with Brilliant Points less than 4 as there's only been one winner from the last 10

Eliminated :
00innocent Air, 00novellara , 00plum Fairy , 00llia , 00miss Bio, 00moments Of Joy, 00mona Lisa, 00mora Bai, 00spritza, Festive Cheer, Flying The Flag, Magician, Milestone, Renew, The United States (all 3) and also Illustrate and Smoke Screen (both 2)

Intermediate (points of the last 10 Derby winners)
0 x4
1 x3
2 x0
3 x1
4 x2

In the interests of cutting the field down further i'm going to eliminate any horse with 4 or more points, as the last 8 winners have all been under 4 points

Eliminated : 00d'Articleshore

Classic (points of the last 10 Derby winners)
5
7
8
10
13
15
16
16
18
23

So only 1 of the 10 scoring over 19, so i'm eliminating any horse of 19+ points

Eliminated: 00vallee Des Eves (20), 00buck Aspen (19), Francis Of Assisi (19)

Solid (points of the last 10 Derby winners)

0 x1
1 x2
2 x0
3 x1
4 x2
5 x1
6 x2
7 x0
8 x1

Plenty of points spread across the board so need for any eliminations for the Intermediate category


Professional (points of the last 10 Derby winners)

0 x7
1 x1
2 x1
3 x1

I'm eliminating any higher than 1 as 8/10 have been 0 or 1

Eliminated: Eye Of The Storm (4), Finn McCool (4)
By:
Shrews
When: 09 Jun 12 22:44
This now leaves 22

1 00daring Miss
2 00beyondthedream
3 00bowstring
4 00catherine Linton
5 00chenchikova
6 00cherry Hinton
7 00dietrich
8 00la Chunga
9 00mer De Corail
10 Battle Of Marengo
11 Dei
12 Foundry
13 King George River
14 Kingsbarns
15 Mars
16 Montclair
17 Navy Seal
18 The Vatican
19 Theatre
20 Twilight Zone
21 Victory Song
22 Waver

The TOTAL of Dosage Index points for the last 10 Derby winners was

0.54
0.78
0.86
0.89
0.94
1.34
1.43
1.44
1.6
3

3 certainly seems to be an abnormal figure (Sea The Stars), and 0.54 seems to be a little different to the others so i'm eliminating anything under 0.78 and over 1.6. In the interests of ctting down the field i'm also eliminating the 2nd highest that's left, as only 2/10 have had a higher score

Eliminated : Battle Of Marengo (1.67) plus King George River (1.5)

This now leaves 20
By:
Shrews
When: 09 Jun 12 22:45
The 20 left are :

1 00daring Miss
2 00beyondthedream
3 00bowstring
4 00catherine Linton
5 00chenchikova
6 00cherry Hinton
7 00dietrich
8 00la Chunga
9 00mer De Corail
10 Dei
11 Foundry
12 Kingsbarns
13 Mars
14 Montclair
15 Navy Seal
16 The Vatican
17 Theatre
18 Twilight Zone
19 Victory Song
20 Waver

The next eliminator is the 'Centre Of Distribution'. The last 10 Derby winners have scored CD points of :

-0.5
-0.04
0.08
0.16
0.22
0.26
0.35
0.46
0.5
0.81

Therefore i'm eliminating horses of less than 0.04 and above 0.46

Eliminated : 00catherine Linton (0.5), Theatre (0.47)

This now leaves 18
By:
Shrews
When: 09 Jun 12 22:46
The 18 left are

1 00daring Miss
2 00beyondthedream
3 00bowstring
4 00chenchikova
5 00cherry Hinton
6 00dietrich
7 00la Chunga
8 00mer De Corail
9 Dei
10 Foundry
11 Kingsbarns
12 Mars
13 Montclair
14 Navy Seal
15 The Vatican
16 Twilight Zone
17 Victory Song
18 Waver

If all the points are totalled up(B+I+C+S+P) then the total points of the last 10 Derby winners has been

10
16
18
22
24
26
26
28
33
34

Therefore i'm eliminating any horse with less than 18 total points

Eliminated : 00la Chunga (16), Montclair (16)

In addition, the three most relevant categories at this level are Intermediate, Classic and Solid. The total of points for these categories for the last 10 Derby winners has been :

6
11
13
15
18
20
21
22
27
30

Therefore i'm eliminating any horse of 23 or above or 10 or less

Eliminated: 00bowstring (26)

This now leaves 15
By:
Shrews
When: 09 Jun 12 22:46
The 15 left are :

1 00daring Miss
2 00beyondthedream
3 00chenchikova
4 00cherry Hinton
5 00dietrich
6 00mer De Corail
7 Dei
8 Foundry
9 Kingsbarns
10 Mars
11 Navy Seal
12 The Vatican
13 Twilight Zone
14 Victory Song
15 Waver

The adjusted averages for each sector (without the abnormal scores that sway the figures) are as follows :
Brilliant: 5.22
Intermediate: 0.75
Classic: 12.88
Solid: 3.75
Professional:0.33

Therefore i'm eliminating any figures that stand out as being 'different' to the adjusted average

Eliminated :
Brilliant : None
Intermediate : 00chenchikova, 00cherry Hinton, 00mer De Corail, Twilight Zone (all scored 3)
Classic : Kingsbarns, Navy Seal, The Vatican (all scored 9)
Solid : None
Professional : None

This leaves 8
By:
Shrews
When: 09 Jun 12 22:47
The 8 left are :

1 00daring Miss
2 00beyondthedream
3 00dietrich
4 Dei
5 Foundry
6 Mars
7 Victory Song
8 Waver

The average Dosage Index profile of the last 10 Derby winners(non adjusted) is :

Brilliant: 5
Intermediate: 1
Classic: 13
Solid: 4
Professional: 1

or 5-1-13-4-1

1 00daring Miss = 4-2-11-5-0
2 00beyondthedream = 6-2-14-4-0
3 00dietrich = 4-2-10-4-0
4 Dei = 6-2-14-4-0
5 Foundry = 5-0-12-5-0
6 Mars = 5-2-13-4-0
7 Victory Song = 4-2-12-4-0
8 Waver = 5-2-13-4-0

The only score that stands out from the average is the 10 on classic for 00dietrich, so i'm eliminating that one based on that, which leaves 7

1 00daring Miss is by Rail Link(11.4f) - Daring Miss (Sadlers Wells)(11.4f)
2 00beyondthedream is by Montjeu (11.7f) — Beyond The Dream (Fusaichi Pegasus) (8.9f)
3 Dei is by Galileo (IRE) (11.1f) — Last Love (Danehill) (9.1f)
4 Foundry is by Galileo (11.1f) — Sharp Lisa (Dixieland Band (9.3f)
5 Mars is by Galileo (11.1f) — Massarra (Danehill) (9.1f)
6 Victory Song is by Dansili (9.3f) — All Too Beautiful (Sadler´s Wells) (11.4f)
7 Waver is by Galileo (11.1f) — Nell Gwyn (Danehill) (9.1f)

The best form over 12f of the horses above

Rail Link won the 2006 Arc on Good
Daring Miss 2nd to Montjeu in G1 Grand Prix de Saint Cloud on Good

Montjeu won the 2000 G1 King George and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes on Gd/Fm
Beyond The Dream was unraced

Galileo won the 2001 Epsom Derby on Gd/Fm
Last Love won a maiden at 7f on soft, 9th of 15 in the 2004 Irish 1000 Guineas on Gd/Fm

Sharp Lisa 6th of 14 in the 2004 Breeders Cup Distaff over 9f

Massarra 2nd of 10 in the 2002 Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7f on Gd/Fm

Dansili 3rd of 14 in the 2000 Breeders Cup Mile
All to Beautiful 2nd of 7 in the 2004 Epsom Oaks on Good

Nell Gwyn 12th of 14 in the 2007 Epsom Oaks


1 00daring Miss - Rail Links best horse so far has only achieved a G3 place in Italy
2 00beyondthedream - I can't be having the dam of the Epsom Derby winner being unraced when there's other dams with decent form available
3 Dei - the dams form is nothing startling
4 Foundry - dams form is decent, stamina questionable
5 Mars is by Galileo - dams form is ok, stamina questionable
6 Victory Song - dams form is good, Dansili is the sire of Rail Link who had the stamina to win The Arc. Dam is 'the daughter' of Urban Sea who is the dam of both Sea The Stars and Galileo
7 Waver - dam thought good enough to contest The Oaks

Eliminated : 00daring Miss , 00beyondthedream, Dei, Foundry, Mars

Winner: Victory Song

2nd : Waver
3rd : Foundry

Put them in your horse trackers
By:
Shrews
When: 09 Jun 12 22:49
Only a bit of fun really, but I got obsessed with it once I started !  Besides, it's part of the fun of racing to follow a horse or two !

Anybody willing to give me 200/1 for a tenner at this early stage ?
By:
comingupthehill
When: 10 Jun 12 01:32
5-1-13-4-1 this seems to be the perfect stats on all measures


6 Mars = 5-2-13-4-0
8 Waver = 5-2-13-4-0

these 2 seem to have as close a stat scoring as the optimum
By:
comingupthehill
When: 10 Jun 12 01:33
brilliant research -best way to test it ,is go back and do it for last few derbies and see what horse it came up with,using exact same process.
By:
push
When: 10 Jun 12 06:10
I like it , i like it !  Therefore my selection is the Galileo half brother colt to Frozen Fire named  "Sir Walter Scott".
Thanks for the research.
By:
Tascro
When: 10 Jun 12 11:49
great effort. will watch with interest how they get on
By:
Kevbetting superstar
When: 10 Jun 12 13:27
Brilliant thread.  All forum threads should be as good as this one

Great effort Shrews!!
By:
Kevbetting superstar
When: 10 Jun 12 13:27
Brilliant thread.  All forum threads should be as good as this one

Great effort Shrews!!
By:
Stake & Chips
When: 10 Jun 12 13:37
Well done Shrews. Any idea what the % of winners come from the first entry stage vs the second entry stage (in April?)/ supplementary entry stage?
By:
Beryl
When: 10 Jun 12 16:07
What a fantastic thread!!!

Shrews, I´ll be following the horses you mentioned with great interest.
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 10 Jun 12 17:11
thats actually a pretty decent shout....pretty sweet pedigree on Victory Song. gl shrews.
By:
push
When: 10 Jun 12 17:17
Victory Song , foaled in April  in the last 21 years only 2 winners of the Derby were foaled in April  those were Sea The Stars  , and Oath,  both were in the first 2 in the betting.
By:
Tucho
When: 10 Jun 12 20:07
what a flipping effort Shocked
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 11 Jun 12 11:56
Fantastic effort!!
Though, of course, you do realise that if your Tri-Cast doesn't come in, Eric will be on this thread like a tramp on chips, calling you both a moron and a cretin?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 11 Jun 12 14:18
Staggering workload there, Shrews.

I believe the current footballing parlance would describe it as 'a strong shift'.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 11 Jun 12 14:18
Or is it 'a big shift'?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 11 Jun 12 14:19
'Long shift'?

Confused
By:
trev w
When: 11 Jun 12 19:53
fukk me thats some effort shrewsShocked

will be a fred of legendary status if you nab the winner from your final cutCool
By:
Shrews
When: 11 Jun 12 23:22
Let's not forget this is a fun thread only (as you all know). 

But i've followed racing for years and I know that unless you are an EXTREMELY didicated person and have some very special attributes about your personality then horse racing can only ever be be a fun pastime, not a profession.

I love to follow horses. I love that feeling of 'I spotted it first' - breeding is a fantastic science and that's why I love the uniqueness of the flat (don't get me wrong I love the uniquesness of the jumps also), basically I just love the sport of horse racing !

What better 'sport' than to follow a horse that's never run before and hope it wins 'arguably' wins the greatest race of all ?! It almost certainly won't, but i'm in it for the fun and the sport and I hope that if you love to watch horses racing then your are too.

If we win, we win (and it'd be a bloody miracle), if we don't, we don't, but i'll still be back next year for another go, 

It'd be nice to get a big price !
By:
mulan
When: 12 Jun 12 12:26
Victory Song is a half sister to Wonder of Wonders(Kingmambo) and Along(Smart Strike).

While the horse might have talent if he shows the quirks that his half sisters have shown he will not be winning around Epsom...
By:
Shrews
When: 13 Jun 12 16:38
Are you going to give me 200/1 then Mulan ? Only for a tenner.  It'd be nice if Betfair created a market for this.
By:
Shrews
When: 21 Jun 12 21:37
There's actually some betting on this


Mars - who made my final 7 from the original 442 entries
Theatre - who was eliminated on Centre Of Distribution
Dawn Approach - eliminated because of his trainer

All three around 16's
By:
roobuck
When: 21 Jun 12 21:46
16s - great value LaughLaugh
By:
Shrews
When: 27 Jun 12 19:12
Foundry (3rd choice) runs at The Curragh on Sunday (2.10) over 7f

Also in the race:

Ruler Of The World (reached the final 49, but eliminated on high Brilliant points)
The United States and Magician (both reached the final 41, but eliminated on low Brilliant points)
King George River (reached the final 22, but eliminated on an abnormal total DI score)
Mars (reached the final 7, but eliminated on Dams stamina and ability)


Last year the race was won by David Livingston who went on to be a Group class horse, but not a Derby winner. Camelot won his Maiden last year at Leopardstown on the 14th July also over 7f.
By:
BJG
When: 27 Jun 12 19:35
Rofl at the 16s across the board, books wont be happy till they completely destroy AP markets
By:
Shrews
When: 27 Jun 12 22:45
I know, absolute madness.  I've predicted a winner based on some very flimsy logic and asked H ills to give me 200/1 for a fun tenner (expecting an offer between 50's and 100's).

I've not heard nothing back !

Then I saw that 16's market and laughed my **** off.  How ridiculous is that ?  There's still 400+ entries !
By:
Stake & Chips
When: 28 Jun 12 12:45
My Coolemore MOAL reckons Mars is on a different planet to the other Ballydoyle juveniles. Mischief
By:
Shrews
When: 28 Jun 12 19:35
Tell the Coolmore mole that if Aiden wants any advice on which juvenile is his Derby horse, to come and read this thread Cool
By:
Shrews
When: 29 Jun 12 23:52
Only 'The United States' survives to the overnight decs stage at The Curragh, so no Foundry appearance as yet.

The un-named horse 00Novellara (Sadlers Wells), who did not have a trainer in my initial post, is now trained by Henry Cecil and is called Disclaimer. He runs in the 4.05 Newmarket tommorow (Saturday).

He made the top 49 but was eliminated on his 'Brilliant' points. I just wonder maybe if he's Cecils Derby horse ?
By:
push
When: 30 Jun 12 20:18
See your MARS is entered for a Maiden race at Gowran on the 3rd of July, i think that is the Maiden race that Frozen Fire , and Masterofthehorse both won in their years?
By:
push
When: 30 Jun 12 22:09
Mars, as yet unraced and BoyleS going 12-1 for next years Derby. Anti Post is dead !
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