Northumberland plate

Will take a look MM. Seem to have spent most of my life backing habitual non-runner Mount Athos, and I'm probably too old to change my ways! Fond memories of the "forum charge" on Juniper Girl in 2007 (yes, that was 5 years ago!); a repeat would be nice.

OK, a whole half an hour (!) of intense (!) form study sees me arriving at a few conclusions:

1) If Lightbulb Luca was aiming Mount Athos at this he wouldn't have allowed his mark to creep up to 109. Discarded.
2) Lordofthehouse is a monster of a horse and might be improving so fast that he'll knock them all into touch. Feared.
3) Palazzo Bianco ran an eye-catching 3rd behind Lordofthehouse at Haydock and may well have been laid out for this. Connections aren't averse to tilting at big handicaps (eg. Charm School, Expresso Star) and he looks worth a small punt at the price. Selection.

0.5pt Palazzo Bianco @ 20/1

mystic, was impressed by lordofthehouse last saturday. kept finding more imo. locla hero got a mention in the a/p column in rp yesterday.

The trouble with Palazzo Bianco and (to a lesser extent) Lordofthehouse, is that they might not get in. 90 was the lowest-rated runner last year and 89 the year before. With a mark of 86, PB will probably need to pick up a penalty somewhere (not entered anywhere at the moment). Wish I'd thought about that last night!

Mystic, id think that Palazzo Blanco would go for the Ascot Stakes

Lordofthehouse 3/3 at Haydock, fwiw. Paul Hanagan gave a good word for him in the Flat Ahead book, but he is pretty upbeat about most horss.

He's actually won at Newcastle so stat is irrelevant. Rated 89 after his last win so not sure he is guaranteed to get in, if he does will be near to favouritism I would imagine.

Several jumps trainers have entries.

Lordofthe house for me too, but Dazinski ran OK in 2nd that day too, and is 25/1+. Both fit with general stats. Watching Ermyn Lodge (4pm Newm today) before jumping in on that too. Roll on 30th!!!

Thought High Office also ran a good trial yesterday. Rated 90 so should get in. Good looking trial for the plate 3.05 at York this coming Friday too.

3.05 tomorrw at york could be informative

Absolutely agree. There's a few in there that have aspirations.

local hero must have a good chance today with this rain.

Some stats for this Saturday's big 'un;

9 of last 10 carried 8-2 to 8-11 (exception Bangalore 9-5)
9 / 10 OR 85-93 (Bangalore 99)
9 / 10 had won over at least 14F (exception Tominator 12F)
9 / 10 finished in first 5 LTO (exception Mirjan 10th)
10 / 10 last ran

10 / 10 last ran

10/10 last ran

Try again:

10/10 last ran

Or I could just give up!!!

10/10 last ran

wtf

cutting and pasting gone wrong at its most spectacular - but thaks for being so patient.

cutting and pasting gone wrong at its most spectacular - but thaks for being so patient.

Here goes:
Ones above plus-
10/10 last ran

Honest to god. going for a lie down.

Sorry for laughing but that's funny Haemolysis.

Thanks I will check the decks and try to find a horse that last ran

Very funny cleveland steamship.

Mount Athos (IRE)    5       9 10
Petara Bay (IRE)    8       9 9
Gulf of Naples (IRE)    4       9 8
Thimaar (USA)    4       9 6
Steps To Freedom (IRE)    6       9 4
Eternal Heart (IRE)    4       9 4
Ile de Re (FR)    6       9 2
Blue Bajan (IRE)    10       9 1
Icon Dream (IRE)    5       8 13
The Betchworth Kid (GB)    7       8 12
Tominator (GB)    5       8 12
Never Can Tell (IRE)    5       8 11
Motivado (GB)    4       8 11
Kiama Bay (IRE)    6       8 10
Old Hundred (IRE)    5       8 10
Ermyn Lodge (GB)    6       8 10
Address Unknown (GB)    5       8 9
Merchant of Dubai (GB)    7       8 8
Lyric Street (IRE)    4       8 8
Crackentorp (GB)    7       8 8
Becausewecan (USA)    6       8 7
Mystery Star (IRE)    7       8 6
Montaff (GB)    6       8 6
Deauville Flyer (GB)    6       8 6
Kazbow (IRE)    6       8 5
Figaro (GB)    4       8 5
High Office (GB)    6       8 5
Dazinski (GB)    6       8 4
Lexington Bay (IRE)    4       8 3
Twin Soul (IRE)    4       8 2
Palazzo Bianco (GB)    4       8 1
Cotillion (GB)    6       8 0
Chabada (JPN)    4       8 0
Halla San (GB)    10       7 11
Western Prize (GB)    4       7 10
French Hollow (GB)    7       7 9
Trovare (USA)    5       7 9
Kangaroo Court (IRE)    8       7 9
Boss's Destination (GB)    5       7 8
Blazing Field (GB)    4       7 8
English Summer (GB)    5       7 6
Yahrab (IRE)    7       7 6
Lady Amakhala (GB)    4       7 5
Blimey O'Riley (IRE)    7       7 3
Flying Trader (USA)    3       6 2

anybody backing crackentorp should note that its weight is 8-13, due to 5lb penalty for last win, extra weight had'nt been added on racing post site until today.

At this stage Montaff for me. Horse just simply different over 2 miles with cut and runs in race he was 2nd in last year off £11 less.

20/1 is well overpriced imo despite there being a few unexposed ones who could be very well in. Sooner take one at this stage that I think will have the conditions to race to its full potential

The race has horses like Ermyn Bay and Old Hundred whose marks would normally have gone up too high to give them a strong chance of winning wh/ will be racing below 9st this yr.

Both have stronger form in big staying hcaps than Figaro and Motivado (priced on trainer reputation) wh/ are above them in the betting and I will play as soon as I know firm running plans.

Gl all

The race has horses like Ermyn Bay and Old Hundred whose marks would normally have gone up too high to give them a strong chance of winning wh/ will be racing below 9st this yr.

Both have stronger form in big staying hcaps than Figaro and Motivado (priced on trainer reputation) wh/ are above them in the betting and I will play as soon as I know firm running plans.

Gl all

Can see the handicap arguement with Montaff Roo. I was looking at him yesterday. But when he came into the race last year he had several placed efforts and a win that season. His runs this season so far have been pretty bad even allowing for the fact he's not had ideal conditions. Think he may just be regressing tbh.

THE BETCHWORTH KID e/w for me.

What is the weather and going like up there, MORPETH?

its overcast at moment, were some showers yesterday. very humid at  moment, and showers forecast for today and tomorrow. think you're defo looking at soft ground for the plate. tomorrow and friday will give us more clues, just be astonished if plate run on good ground. had a lot of rain last week too.

Thanks for that, morpeth.

some showers today, still humid.

http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html
Latest GoingStick Readings

Racecourse    Report Date    Race Date    GoingStick 5.0
Newcastle    27 June    28 June   
Soft (Heavy in places)

make no mistake.this is going to be a slog.it will be a quagmire.

rained on and off last night and the same story this morning

15    /441-0    Petara Bay (IRE)7    8    9-10    R Mills    T Eaves   
217    -21334    Gulf of Naples (IRE)9 4    9-9    M Johnston    S De Sousa   
39    400U-1    Ile De Re (FR)53 6    9-3    Donald McCain    J Crowley   
411    6-4560    Blue Bajan (IRE)30 10    9-2    D B O'meara    D Tudhope   
58    00062-    Icon Dream (IRE)337    5    9-0    D M Simcock    G Lee   
66    100-31    Crackentorp (GB)15    7    9-0 (Incl 5lbs Penalty)    T D Easterby    D Allan   
73    0000-3    The Betchworth Kid (GB)16    7    8-13    A King    A Beschizza   
81    25014-    Motivado (GB)280    4    8-12    Sir Mark Prescott Bt    Luke Morris   
920    220-06    Kiama Bay (IRE)53    6    8-11    J J Quinn    J P Spencer   
104    003-00    Merchant of Dubai (GB)16    7    8-9    J Goldie    P Pickard   
1118    1560-0    Lyric Street (IRE)44    4    8-9    E A L Dunlop    P Mulrennan   
1212    000300    Montaff (GB)29 6    8-7    M R Channon    S Hitchcott   
1315    220-P6    Kazbow (IRE)29    6    8-6    C Grant    P McDonald   
142    621-21    Figaro (GB)36    4    8-6    W J Haggas    Kelly Harrison   
1513    004-23    High Office (GB)21    6    8-6    R A Fahey    B McHugh   
1616    10-320    Lexington Bay (IRE)15    4    8-4    R A Fahey    P Mathers   
177    342-33    Palazzo Bianco (GB)29    4    8-2    J H M Gosden    N Mackay   
1810    324502    Halla San (GB)5 10    7-12    R A Fahey    J P Sullivan   
1914    1163-2    French Hollow (GB)6 7    7-12    T J FitzGerald    N Farley   
2019    0300-0    Trovare (USA)3    5    7-12    Mrs A Perrett

Montaff Nap for me,...........if it runs

look for something off a low weight with webbed feet.

Tomorrow off, do you think Saturday will go ahead?

just been a huge storm in the north east, lots of flooding in newcastle

think saturday struggling, by calling off friday, have given it a chance. forecast better but damage maybe done.

Yeah crazy storms, 1 months worth of rain in 20 minutes in some parts, am not kidding it was like an extreme power shower outside!

It actually hurt the head a little !

James Armstrong ‏@JRFArmstrong
@Newcastleraces Going: HEAVY- Unraceable at present however improving conditions in a dry, warm stiff wind. INSPECTION 8am SAT

Thanks for the update, BJG.

If it's on, Montaff for me with a small saver on Icon Dream. GL

Is it EVER going to stop bloody raining?
Would have been interested in Motivado ew, think he could be well in here, with more improvement still to come. Heavy ground would put me off tho.

Palazzo Bianco is well in here ....but may not go in a bog .On his last run he was very  unlucky  not to be much closer at the finish ,is weighted to win a big prize soon

betchword kid for me, and a little tickle on french hollow at a price.

doesnt matter now and its with benefit of hindsight but does anyone think one of the jockeys should have chanced their arm and come down stand side after final turn ?