*** King George VI and QE Stks ***

I make mistakes all the time Bazzar. I wouldn't worry about it! And i'm 31.

Biggest laugh today, RYAN MOORE says that ST NICHOLAS ABBEY is best horse in the KING GEORGE 6TH AND QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES.

he is the best hore, look at his wins!

if this was a lafthanded track he'd win, plain and simple.


just back sea moon, gosdens wons see which way he went imo.

It is not a race to get dogmatic about imo  SNA win in the US last year was  brilliant
but the Horse he beat Sea Moon Looks like he has developed into a top 4yo  and Nathaniel
is massive on ground with the word SOFT in it , but the  ground may be changing by the hour .I will be sticking with Nathaniel as he looks to have improved and a KG winner that has improved is hard to oppose .....interesting fact  Frankel was ten weeks older than Nathaniel when they met as two year old's , half a length in it then  on soft ground . The great paradox of race-form evaluation is never take form literally /always take form literally

ILWAB: "he is the best hore, look at his wins!
if this was a lafthanded track he'd win, plain and simple.
just back sea moon, gosdens wons see which way he went imo"

IN ENGLISH PLEASE!

Were you bladdered when you posted that?
You're not usually so incoherent!

I don't know if you mean St Nicholas Abbey or Sea Moon who is the best horse in the field, and at top form he wins the race

I strongly disagree anyhow, as the above pair (at the best of their form) haven't shown as much as Danedream & Nathaniel in my view, though admittedly, there's little in it.

I find it hard to believe that decent posters (like your good self) use phrases like 'plain & simple' in affairs as tight as this - I'm struggling to rule ANYTHING out, and although you'll be in bulk at my suggestion of Masked Marvel, I think he's excellent value (12/1 on here) to get the frame.

He hasn't THAT much to find on his St Leger performance, but as Mac99 states...it really isn't a race to get too dogmatic about, as there are plenty of pros & cons about the field.

To my eyes SNA is just short of the very highest class and won't be good enough to win this.

In these big races I trust past form, although there is
plenty of form to peruse I admit I cannot understand how some
pieces of form are presumed excellent and similar pieces are
overlooked entirely, whilst both in conjunction are the best
guide to finding the winner, I have used my particular piece
of logic and hopefully have got it right.

Good luck one and all!

I am happy with my Sea Moon punt and may go in again tomorrow morning once the final ground/prices are known. The horse has won 5 times from 8 starts and has done nothing wrong in the process. An unlucky defeat in the Leger where Peslier got boxed in before finishing full of running, and then being beaten by a more forwards and tuned up 4yo St Nick on Firm going in the U.S is no disgrace at all. There is only one direction Sea Moon is going and that is forwards.

Nathaniel just beats Sea Moon for me with Black Panther getting third at very decent odds!

Sea Moon may do a Harbinger and I'm sure Stoutey will have been aiming at this all year. But his sire Beat Hollow just dosen't produce top class horses.

Nathaniel is obviously good enough and if he'd come here fresh he'd be a banker but can he be 100% after the Eclipse.

SNA ticks most of the boxes but his R/H affliction tempers enthusiasm somewhat.

Deep Brilliante - won't stay on this stiff track on testing ground.

Danedream I just don't like - she proved me totally wrong in the Arc and if she is in anything like that form she may do so again.

Dunaden - arguably unlucky last time and will appreicate it is it's a proper test. Should give a good account but something tells me he isn't quite classy enough.

Reliable Man - the more I look at him the more I like him. Ground, trip etc should be fine and the jockey booking is another positive and at 28 on here he looks a decent play.

Can't fancy the 3 rags though Brown Panther may run a place.

He has produced one though Uncle.

class on the dams side, Sadlers Wells in the blood I believe.

Going change .. round course is now Good to Soft.

Given this race goes off at 4.35pm tomorrow we could well be looking at Good ground by start time, it is forecast a dry day. I will therfore stick to what has been bet and place no more bets!

GL.

it was english paulme.

IF it was a left handed track on good ground sna would win.


i will be surprised if anything can beat sea moon in this race and ive had my biggest bet this yr to find out.

I'd say it's already just the slow side of good, sint, if the time for Hefner's race is any guide.

I know his form ain't too good this season, but nobody on here seems to be considering MASKED MARVEL at all, which is good for me, as I can increase my free greening on an outsider with a squeak, who could hit a low price on the home turn.

I see Dettori is booked for Gosden's second string, and I think he could get first run on some of the principles once Robin Hood has shot his bolt, and he'll make it a real stamina test, and could possibly do 'a Teenoso' at massive odds.
He's far better than his recent performances indicate and it could be dangerous for the big guns to give him too much rope.

The ground is an obvious concern for him (just like it was for Teenoso) as it is with ST.NICHOLAS ABBEY, who despite looking very comfortable on it in the RP Trophy as a 2yo, beat trees!

He's won the Coronation Cup twice, which in reality is just about the cheapest all-aged middle-distance group one in Britain, and his other group one was on fast ground in the USA, at a stage of the season when I don't believe the top European horses are EVER at a peak.

SEA MOON looks a typical Stoute 4yo improver in the mould of many we've seen over the decades, though I don't think he was anywhere near as unlucky as everyone believed in the St.Leger - nevertheless, he looks about the most solid choice for the frame, despite needing a bit extra, which everyone seems unanimous in thinking that is in his locker, and conditions look perfect for him.

The Eclipse & King George double can be done (half a dozen following up over the last 30 years) but NATHANIEL could be up against it with an interrupted preparation and just a fortnight between races this season, and that rare fortnight gap nearly caught out a superior performer in Nashwan!

DUNADEN just looks a strong stayer to me and shouldn't have the pace for this level, though the anticipated strong stamina test will be in his favour, and he will undoubtedly be running on after losing his position when the gallop is stepped up.

DANEDREAM is the form choice for me, and it's difficult to find negatives in her best form - it seems far easier for others to proclaim her Arc victory as just a fluke, whereas I think it was an exceptional performance - she's way over-priced.

DEEP BRILLANTE is a real unknown quantity though I haven't heard any Orfevre or Deep Impact noises, and in reality, he probably has a bit to find.

RELIABLE MAN has proved very disappointing on numerous occasions (considering the best of his form) and although the ability is there, I don't believe he's appropriately named.
He may well be 'primed' later in the season, as it's rare to have a 4yo French challenger for this event.

BROWN PANTHER has everything in his favour except the raw ability to deal with this lot, which is the most important factor - I suppose he has a squeak of the place money by default if others under-perform, but he's definitely NOT one for me.

In summary then...DANEDREAM is the choice with SEA MOON being the biggest danger, and MASKED MARVEL the  one that could provide an upset - it's a big 'IF' but well worth a trade at the prices on here, as I'm thinking he'll be the first to kick and stretch them.

"The Eclipse & King George double can be done (half a dozen following up over the last 30 years)"

Just realised those six were between 1980 - 1993 and NONE since
That's an odd statistic

There is usually 3 weeks between the Eclipse and King George so it is probably even harder this year.

AT - that's my point about Nathaniel
He's a smashing colt but his prep and the two week gap is a real concern in my view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gXBbQsi3MU
Teenoso's 1984 victory - vintage Piggott.

danedream for me at the prices ,looks the value call here and wouldnt be suprised if pricewise puts it up, had st nick behind in the arc and  more than double his price ,it seems the german horses are still being underestimated ,nathanial had a hard race in the eclipse and only 2 weeks to recover ,sea moon improving but a bit to find on the book imo ,and  closely matched with dunaden . the 10s or thereabouts each way on danedream appeal to me .

FW - I'd say it was a stretch of the imagination to say Sea Moon is CLOSELY matched with Dunaden, as he won with ease.
With the benefit of hindsight these 'unlucky' horses invariably are found to have run their races and I figure Stoute's colt is a gimme to comfortably confirm the form with Dunaden, though that's probably a 4/9 shot in a match bet.

To confirm or even INCREASE the margin of superiority on Royal Ascot form would be a decent price, but I think he's up to doing so...at the prices, I just can't fancy Dunaden at all.

I'm sure he'll be staying on but he just hasn't got the gears to win a King George as good as this, and I'm still to be convinced he's a genuine group one performer, though he's worth his place.

He'd need to be 20/1 for me to be even slightly interested - he's much too short at 7/1, not to mention the ludicrous 11/2 with Bad Blokes

Danedream for me would be half the price if French-trained. Sea Moon could be anything - might well be a Harbinger but has failed to win both times it's run at G1 level.

I also think Sea Moon is nailed on to run a big race, but just a word caution,  Sea Moon is generally held up and so is SNA , There are very few suspect stayers in the field  tomorrow  and getting a clear run in the home straight is far from  guaranteed , with the ground drying up Horses Like Danedream and  even the Horse from Japan may have plenty left  turning for home

still SNA's race all day long,the 5/1 a few days back was a gift,as long as there is no downpour,he hacks up tomorrow

Not entirely sure but believe SNA was on Lasix when they met in the U.S and Sea Moon wasn't. Not sure how much a difference that makes personally but worth bearing in mind.

I think you might be right and that was the reason I backed him in America.

SNA was on lasix yeah.

Danedream@11 & Reliable Man@28 for me

come on danedream....show the boys what your made of!!

get in you fookin dancer!

well done danedream backers,another big priced german winner

I think the result is about right.

danedream - arc winner
nathaniel - beast
st nick - yep 3rd is about right vs the top 2 (confimed form with sea moon)
Reliable Man - lways likely to run on like that without winning
Sea Moon - that's as good as he is....at least confirmed form with dunaden

St Nic needs a road to be at best.

Well done backers - the front 3 in the betting all had negatives so she was a good shout at the prices. I totally dismissed her for last years Arc so had to stick to my guns and ignore her again.

anyone got a lend

wd DD backers.

good analysis gooner,form looks about right,will it be good enough to win the Arc in Oct?that could be as good as the older generation get this yr imo Nathaniel and DD only ones to take out of race but wouldnt be in hurry to back either for Oct between now and then,momentum could start swinging in favour of the 3 yr olds in next couple months

Cant fault the front two. Well done Dane backers.

I've said it before and i'll say it again, the sooner Ballydoyle employ a top class jockey the better. SNA given too much to do against the front pair. He got a 7-day ban for overuse of the whip.

No excuses for Sea Moon 5th was a good run but possibly wants further than 1m4f in G1 company.

mr sykes, there isnt any 3 year olds

agree somewhat about Ballydoyle jockey sint,Joseph is not a bad jockey but if he was on Camelot in Oct it might be a tall ask against more experienced riders,thought Sea Moon ran well enough,would prob have placed had it not dried up as much,not sure he would have won though

Camelot,Valyra,Last Train and to lesser extent Imperial M would be the 3 yr olds I'd have in mind at minute elis,WFA is still a big advantage

Well done Danedream backers. I rated her Arc win highly but was wrongly of the opinion she probably wouldn't go on as a 4yo and her runs this year just enforced that opinion. After that win I think she's probably the best middle distance mare I've seen. I've seen some very good 3yo fillies but none I can remember that were quite as good as that without the 3yo allowance.
I was also wrong about Nathaniel being unlikely to run to his best, he ran pretty much bang on his Eclipse form, just a pound lower I reckon, it was a great effort in the circumstances.
Have to say, though, that was a woefully inept ride from O'Brien, any chance he may have had was spent before turning into the straight. I'm certainly not saying he should have won, but I also think it's very unlikely either of the front 2 would have if they'd been ridden from such a position.

well done danedream backers and a very good effort from nathaniel, have been suffering from a pulled muscle in my back, in agony most of week  ,felt a lot better today but in the exitement of danedream just getting up i was riding the finish with starke and buick  finish and pulled the back again ,in fecking agony again

I am a happy camper with the way things panned out.

However I have to say something about those who are crabbing JOB. He was on a horse that has at least shown a turn of foot....what the hell was Ryan Moore doing? He was only a place ahead of SNA the whole way round who beat him comfortably.

Neither horse was the beneficiary of a great ride Roo, giving rope like that to proven Group 1 performers is asking for trouble, but JOB has got SNA beaten before in the Mooresbridge. It's another shocker imo.

AOB said afterwards ''there will be other days'' . Yeah. Hopefully with a better jockey on.

Sea Moon showed a decisive turn of foot in the Hardwicke. He was just not good enough today. May have got 3rd at best.

The Coolemore outfit and their messing about caused me to throw away a few
quid on the double, EXCELEBRATION and DANEDREAM, never intended to run
him in JULY cup, but why waste money like they do?
The next name for one of their horses, (keeping in mind the naming of LISTEN because it's Aidens most repeated word), my suggestion is "THE UNRELIABLE MEN".

Mac99, as regards SEA MOON being held up, I think that MOORE
rides MOST horses that way, it is now a VERY bad habit,
view how many races he has lost on PRESVIS for one, there are others TOO NUMEROUS to mention.

on reflection nathaniel has run a stormer and considering he only had had 2 weeks to get over his hard race in the eclipse i would say he has improved another 3-5 lb on the eclipse run as the king george looks to be just about the strongest 1.4mile race run this season ,id have nath and danedream ratings wise about the same now , maybe a pound  in it either way. the arc is boiling  up to be a cracker .

Congratulations to all Danedream backers, two fantastic horses slugging it out was a sight to behold and one of the best races I've seen for a while. I ended up backing Danedream and Deep Brillante EW, I wish I went with my first opinion on both horses but that's easy to say after the race!!

There was a great stat in the Weekender which forced me to back Danedream and it concerned the last horse to win a King George after being unplaced on their previous start. That horse was a filly called Time Charter who also beat a stellar field in 1983. Strange how these kind of things happen.

She maybe small in size but she has got a massive heart and proved the Arc was no fluke. Connections must be happy she will never have to race at Saint-Cloud again!!!

I'm not Joseph's biggest fan either but as was widely predicted beforehand SNA is clearly not comfortable going right handed.  Run that race at Leopardstown, York or Saint Cloud and he would have been a 1L+ winner imo.

Horses for courses unclepuncle!

Japan Cup would be the race I'd go for if owned him, all but a dream. Haha

Yes he rode a poor race in the Moorsbridge, but then again so did Murtagh. In that race I feel JOB was covering his move as in the race yesterday he was covering Sea Moon.

He was too far back but imo he rode a far better race than Moore. When they turned it he put SM amongst horses whereas at least JOB gave SNA a clear sight of what was needed. If he was the horse that Coolmore think he is, he should have won yesterday. I am not sure that at the line he was any closer to the winner than when they were 1.5F out. On the day the best horses fought out the finish.

I just think people are very quick to blame JOB when in all likelyhood he was following instructions. Just because SNA got closer to the winner at the end than Sea Moon it gains attention but Moore rode a pi55 poor race

After looking at the race more in depth and comparing the times on the card I don't believe the race was quite as good as my initial impression. Considering it was run at a decent pace the final time was a bit below par for the race. Even allowing for the quality of the line-up they finished a bit too compressed in behind. For me, if Nathaniel ran to his Eclipse form yesterday then too many horses, such as Reliable Man, Dunaden and Brown Panther have improved significantly on their best marks, which I just don't believe. Plus, from a speed figure angle it would make Fanunalter's performance better than it was.
I have Danedream running right up to her Arc performance but with no real improvement from 3 to 4. Unless this year's Arc ends up being substandard or slowly run I think Danedream will have to improve a bit to win it again (which she may do). In my view, Nathaniel's Eclipse win is still the best middle distance performance I've seen this year (obviously Danedream backers won't agree), if Gosden can get him back in the same form come October he'd be the one to beat.

With SNA they probably figured there were better horses in the field and gambled the race would be run too fast and he'd mow them down in the straight - then send him off to stud on the back of that

bazzar, in his prime Frankie always had his horse in the first six in most big races.
Holding Horses up in  races run at a searching pace is fair enough , Lester was the master at that tactic  ,to be fair to the rider  SEA MOON  was never really travelling  yesterday and looks like a moody  so and so  , did he really want to beat Dandino at Goodwood? .The winner  is back on track  and may again run up a sequence ,if Nathaniel  is given a good rest and comes back fresh for the Arc,  he and she may fight it out again  and next time  he  he may just catch her out if she has had a further two or three outings before then ,the race could be a real epic

I am going to make a statement which will shock and dismay some people, but I think that Danedream was not at her best YESTERDAY,
she will come on for the race and VIVA LA ARC.

I agree Bazzar, if they wanted to have a pop at the Arc then i think she would win hands down.

But i have a feeling that she will be retired before the Arc, i cant see any reason why they would risk her well being running in the race, however, the way the arc is run suits her turn of foot.

Yesterday was the horse's final race in my opinion.


What a great animal she is, we are talking about a mare here...its unbelievable.

Nathaniel gets revenge in the Arc

ROZEL welcome back, if she runs, she may get beaten but not by ANYTHING from Europe!!!!!

"But i have a feeling that she will be retired before the Arc, i cant see any reason why they would risk her well being running in the race"

RK - I really don't understand that at all...it's the colts that are 'protected' in that way, for obvious reasons.
She'll be around for a for more dances this season.

PS - has anyone got OFFICIAL ratings AND those of Timeform over the decades for the top fillies & mares?
Miesque was 132 officially, and from my memory banks, I think that's the highest I can recall.

I don't see how yesterday's race can be regarded as improved form from her Arc win, and the official 128 is probably a fair mark.

Remember that Nathaniel gave her 3lbs, and if Danedream was promoted to 130, then Nathaniel would in all likelihood be elevated to 133, which is exalted company indeed - that would probably be a shade too high for him, though it's possible we haven't seen the best of him yet.

As a consequence, it's likely that Dunaden would be hiked to a higher mark than a legend like Yeats!

Danedream is good for at least 2 lengths better rating. Nathaniel came off the bridal at the 3 pole as Buick went for home from there, Danedream cruised on the bridal up his inside for another furlong before having to be checked up and switched to the outside to deliver the challenge, after losing momentum and at least a length during the manouvre the jockey galvanised her to snatch the win on a bobber at the line. Clearly the best horse in the race.

Danedream also lost a couple of lengths early on the bend , it looked like she lost her action , perhaps on a piece of false ground ( big divot there ).

a pleasing result.

thats for reminding me bob.

a monkey down the drain!

PS - has anyone got OFFICIAL ratings AND those of Timeform over the decades for the top fillies & mares?
Miesque was 132 officially, and from my memory banks, I think that's the highest I can recall.

I don't see how yesterday's race can be regarded as improved form from her Arc win, and the official 128 is probably a fair mark.

Remember that Nathaniel gave her 3lbs, and if Danedream was promoted to 130, then Nathaniel would in all likelihood be elevated to 133, which is exalted company indeed - that would probably be a shade too high for him, though it's possible we haven't seen the best of him yet.

As a consequence, it's likely that Dunaden would be hiked to a higher mark than a legend like Yeats

Danedream was 132 on Timeform last season.  I can't see them putting her up from Saturday, but she must have been failry close to that. 

Nathaniel was on 127 last year.  I think you could probably put him up 3lbs or so through Sea Moon and St Nicholas Abbey, but not much more.

So Nathaniel 130, Danedream 127 on Saturday feels about right.  May even  be consistent with her getting baulked and losing a couple of lengths?  Not sure I want to go there.

I feel that Timeform are generally closer than the official ratings when it comes to top horses.  The official ones often seem a bit conservative to me.

To answer the other question.

Timeform had Zarkava a pound clear of Danedream on 133.  I think that is where they put Miesque and know that is where they put Goldikova.  It will be interesting to see which one of those two they still talk about in 10 or 20 years.

I think the following are the fllies above 133: Allez France was 136, All Along 134 and Black Caviar 135!

I only like to refer to Timeform's ratings for a laugh when I'm down, as many are ludicrous!
That said...I think Three Troikas was officially 137 in 1979 which is absolutely insane.

To be fair to the OFFICIAL assessors, their ratings 'calmed down' after the 1979 classifications, as they were in their infancy in those days, having only started two or three years before.
Nevertheless, there are always the odd ones that are difficult to believe.

I did a bit of research and managed to find a few with the best OFFICIAL ratings which the likes of Dahlia & Allez France didn't get - that pair were just a bit before my time, so I can't appreciate them as much.

All Along 132
Miesque 132
Black Caviar 132
Pebbles 132
Bosra Sham 131
Balanchine 130
Marwell 130
Oh So Sharp 130
Triptych 130
Goldikova 130

Are the only ones I could find with a mark of 130 or more, and before many of you ask...Indian Skimmer was 129, Zarkava & Zenyatta were given 128!

I've said on many occasions what a thankless task the handicappers have in compiling their ratings and there's a tendency for many to rate their favourites on ONE outstanding performance.

Harbinger
Hawk Wing
Intikhab
Peintre Celebre
Teenoso

...to name a few that on just ONE occasion, produced far in excess of their previous or subsequent form.
It's impossible to put a real figure on such brilliant displays, and they'll never please everyone.

Any more for the above list?

Ahhh... Pebbles - now there was a horse.

ILWAB  ....I have never put 500 quid on a Horse , but if i was going to  I would want to make
sure I was going  to get a run for my money   both O'brien and  Moore  invariably adopt hold up tactics in big races.  The field for the KG was  packed with high class Horses who  were guaranteed to stay the trip ,  even more so as the ground was  loosing  moisture by the hour  .It was a pretty sure bet that  many  in the field would have plenty left  coming into the straight .To his credit J O'brien was fully aware of this and challenged wide  but Moore was forced inside , this was to some extent predictable .Just as predictable was that Nathaniel  would be ridden  prominently  throughout the race  , must have  to evens in running  turning in ? now as I say I don't bet big ,  but a 500   get out bet at evens would have done me ...better luck next time

Ouija board was a good one aswell. Unlucky not to win an Arc.

aye indeed mac. im not a big gambler but i do have a few bets like that every year.

i wont talk about the ride as its clear most thought he wouldnt have won anyway and i do kinda agree. i mean its just impossible to know with certainity and although an arc winner and former kg winner was in the field, i did think sea moon had the beating of them and was quite bullish, i really thought he'd win the race. i thought the race was set up for him to win. wasnt to be but i wont cry about it, im always prepared to lose it. just wish ryan had him closer and came down the outside and not up the inner, most will say it dint matter but he was just never in a position at any stage to win the race for me.

i do often trade but didnt bother as was pretty confident.

but betting for ya eh

I thought he would win aswell so you are not alone in doing a packer.

Teddy Grimthorpe said after the race ''he didn't pick up like we hoped'', so it's fair to say they were disappointed aswell.

Today he is saying 2.5 lenghts is not insurmountable, so they believe he is a bit better than he showed on Saturday. I reckon they might still head to the Arc.

*packet

Dhalia  won the KG two years in succession  but could never beat  Allez France despite five attempts as good a looker as  Beauty parlour  ....can't wait to see her  strutting her stuff

aye!!

not sure id be backing him for the arc after than but i believe hes better than that. the fact that the race was at ascot was key for me. he was too far back but he didnt pick up as well as id hoped either so cant complain...

if it was on a left handed track id have backed him, hes unbeaten over 12f going left handed, and not one win right handed,its clear ro me hes better going left and if it was at epsom for example i believe he'd leave them all for dead.

was a good race and nathaniel backers  were unlucky.

wd dd backers.

sna that is^

Thankless task, but discuss.

Best King George for years:
Nathaniel beat nothing last year for 126, this year he ran to 124.
Danedream ran to 122, and St Nicholas Abbey and Sea Moon under par (Pretty sure he was down as 124 after the Hardwicke)

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/7928847/danedream-earns-rating-of-122

"Danedream's triumph in Saturday's King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes sponsored by Betfair has been a given a rating of 122 by the Senior British Horseracing Authority handicapper Phil Smith.

The performance of the runner-up Nathaniel, who was conceding the three-pound sex allowance to the star German-trained filly when going down by the narrowest of margins in the Ascot showpiece, has been rated 124.

That is two pounds less than his win in the race 12 months ago, but the same as he recorded in the Coral-Eclipse two weeks ago.

It is also the same as St Nicholas Abbey's win in the Investec Coronation Cup (he ran to 122 in finishing third on Saturday), Camelot's Investec Derby triumph and the now retired So You Think's Prince of Wales's Stakes victory."

My thoughts post race are that the form between SNA and Sea Moon from Breeders Cup was much the same and if you allow for the fact that Dunaden would have finished closer to Sea Moon in the Hardwicke, that formline was pretty much upheld. To me I find it a little suprising to say the least that Phil Smith rates Nathaniel on the same mark in that race as he did Sea Moon winning the Hardwicke. Perhaps others can explain it , cannot promise to agree with it however.

Personally I thought Nathaniel put up an immense performance so quick after another Group 1. Perhaps the gap between the races can be over-played but the fact it followed quite a significant hold up following a lung infection or respritory problem shows him to be a fantastic racehorse and to my mind the leading European older horse as far as the Arc is concerned.

Following the exploits of Great Heavens and Meandre over the weekend I am a little concerned he may not show in Paris. Added to that he can earn a lot more for Gosden if he is in the hunt for leading trainer by coming second in the Champion.

A lot  of SNA fans  seem sure  that he is best going left handed,  but those same people should stop to consider  just what kind of performance might Nathaniel put up going  left handed.He was too immature to run in the Derby last  year  and the coronation Cup has come and gone but a left hand track would play to his strengths just as surely as a right hand track plays to the strengths of the fantastic Danedream who had the temerity to get up and beat the great Horse  the other day

yep fair point mac, and sna would of course be no cert just going the other way but i would have him fav personally. esp if its a tight undulating track, he just loves them, chester, breeders, epsom(undulating). better ground would also have suited him!

The fact of the matter is that none of the other horses, apart from the winner,
are as good as some people believe, she ran BELOW form and still won, though narrowly
she STILL WON, I have had many horses beaten in photos, so it makes a change for one to go my way.
This little filly IS TOP CLASS, please learn and digest.

In relation to Danedream, there is no doubt she is a top class filly and added to her ability she showed guts and determination on Saturday.

You were not the only one to back her, but I question the fact you say she ran below form, some justification for that please. The official handicapper says it was 6lbs below her Arc performance but I don't buy that at all. Even if it was a little below the level of the Arc win I would suggest that it was definitely her second best, so to claim she was below form is imo not correct.

One poster claims that she was good for another 2 lengths. At no stage did the jockey have to stop riding, momentum was not stopped - all the jockey did was angle her out to get a run.

As far as SNA is concerned, the RH defeats also coincide with the best races he has run in, and simply fallen short. His Breeder's Cup win was not a top class race imo and what did he beat at Epsom this year? I think Saturday was a pretty accurate reflection of his ability

His 2nd to CDA was left-handed. Guess where JOB had him positioned?

sna beat a top form midday, thats top class imo.

SNA did beat Midday well at Epsom though it can be argued that Queally went too early on a horse that was slightly better at 10f

At the Breeders Cup Midday was clearly past her best and Sarafina was horse that really needed give to show her form - last time I looked I don't think anything else from that race with the exception of Sea Moon has won since. I cannot have Midday being in form in that race.

Sint when SNA raced up with the pace in the Arc he was beaten further

there will always be excuses for and against.

if he wins it'll be because the other horse went too early or didnt get a run, if he gets beat, thats his form.

if he wins the arc (which i dont think he will), there will be many excuses from his knockers, but thats horse racing, can be interpreted in so many ways.

fwiw i dont think there are many horses that can beat sna on good ground going left handed over 12, all depends on the conditions i suppose!

he also shouldve beaten cirrus at meydan, was making ground hand over fist and given another poor ride from his pilot.

No you make a valid point though I did say it was a good performance at Epsom - but the BC form is pants in terms of races like KG and Arc.

If he wins the Arc I'll be the first on here to say I got the horse wrong.

"Roobuck - Following the exploits of Great Heavens and Meandre over the weekend I am a little concerned he may not show in Paris. Added to that he can earn a lot more for Gosden if he is in the hunt for leading trainer by coming second in the Champion"

You make an interesting point, but the other side of the coin is that So You Think ran in both races last season with the same 13 day gap as there will be next October.

Furthermore...Nathaniel's already had two races within a fortnight of each other, so his trainer may not be averse to the idea of a shot at the double - Gosden may be pondering over options at this very moment, and Nathaniel's general well-being (three days after his second tough race) will be under the microscope at this very moment.

He's a tough colt and if he was rested from now until until the Arc, I wouldn't see his participation in both races as a huge problem - he'd also avoid an inevitable bruising encounter with Frankel at York.

It's definitely something worth bearing in mind as he was withdrawn last season from the Arc (albeit for different reasons) and he had a long rest after his King George victory - maybe ante-post backers should be wary.

PS - you neglected to mention Masked Marvel as another possible string to his bow, but maybe I'm alone in anticipating improvement from him this season over 12f...he ran an OK race on Saturday, but I was disappointed with the tactics, as I thought he might have been ridden as a 'second pacemaker' and been the first to kick 4/5 furlongs out, which in my view could have maximised his chances - that's another 'theory' I got wrong

Nevertheless...I backed the winner too!

PS - AND Snow Fairy ran in both!

yes the breeders form is not particularly good.

he is brilliant on tight tracks tho.

there is not a horse currently in training i would back against st nick at either chester or epsom over 12f on good or better.

i mean maybe nathaniel is a better horse, suppose we'd have to say he is given hes a king george winner, eclipse and  2nd again in this yrs kg but going left handed on tight tracks sees sna really thrive imo. wish we couldve seen frankel in these races just to see how'd he'd done, real shame.

And neither horse won either race.

I backed Nathaniel for  the Arc pre Eclipse so I want him to show. Godsen nominated 4 races in could run in and stated that most likely take part in two. In truth part of me hopes he goes to York and is put in his place by Frankel so he can have his swansong in the Arc. Camelot apart I have yet to see a 3yo to beat him and as I am confident he will reverse form with Danedream, the Japanese horse may be the chief threat.

The Japanese horse is the chief threat, and is guaranteed to run, barring injury. Definately best value compared to Camelot, Nathaniel, who may not even turn up!!!

Roobuck - I don't think either were beaten in the Champion Stakes due to racing 13 days before...they both acquitted themselves really well, and my general point is that for a hardy performer, two races within a fortnight isn't too arduous, and Nathaniel is just that!

owners of Nathaniel will be more interested in his stud value than having a crack at the Arc,imo. Champion Stakes back at Ascot has to be a big player imo.

If he does go for the Champion Stakes no doubt Frankels connections will have all the excuse they need not to go. Race against a serious horse? perish the thought

stomach watcher, I agree that he could go for both but I think this will only happen if they target the Arc. Gosden tends to be a target man and if that is the Champion then they will by-pass the Arc.

Another reason he may miss the Arc will be because of the owners having plenty of other options for the race such as Meandre who Fabre was quite bullish about.

I don't necessarily buy into the stud value issue as the owners aren't a commercial breeding operation like Coolmore. If Frankel doesn't run in the Champion then I don't see that adding as much to his value as winning the Arc - he has his 10F Group 1 in the bag. There would indeed be a certain romance about the two horses running in their last race as well as their first, quite remarkable that two brilliant horses ran in the same maiden.

Much to ponder over the coming weeks and we'll just have to see what happens and at least I am in a position to trade my Arc position with Nathaniel if that is what the vibes suggest.

Sorry Mr M, if they state Frankel goes for the Champion they will not side step any horse - as much as I love Nathaniel, Frankel will swamp him

It would be about 50 years ago that M.W.EASTERBY was quoted as saying,
"there's only two things can make a man look a fool, 'osses an' women".
Very sage all these years later.

ILWAB,

I wouldn't say St Nic is necessarily better on an undulating track. He looked positively unbalanced against Midday and took an age to get past her, he seems to have learned a lot since then and was far better around Epsom this year. A year ago I would have argued an undulating track would be against him but now I think undulating and flat tracks come the same to him.

you are prob  right slabster.