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FOYLESWAR
31 May 12 08:06
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Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 1,116 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
have been looking through the possible  runners in   the king george chase on boxing day and trying to find some early  value in the race ,former winner and last years 2nd long run heads the market  and went close to retaining his gold cup with a close 3rd to synchronised and the giant bolster and he has good claims but to me he didnt improve on last years efforts and maybe his gold cup win and king george wins were overated and at the odds he can be opposed .
next in the betting at around 7/1 is grans crus and this top hurdler chaser who won the feltham novices chase in a time faster than kautos king george on the same card has to be seriously considered but silvinio conte and bobs worth were cutting his lead back at the line and silvinio  is almost 3 times his price on here so there may be better value elsewhere and nicholls horse should be suited by the race and course .
bobs worth is better suited by cheltenham so can see him missing this race for a stiffer test .
one of interest to me at a massive price 100 win and 18  place on here is colin tizzards  is cue card whos stamina must be taken on trust but he is well worth a try at 3 miles on a flat track like kempton . he was a decent hurdler and finished close up in a strong  supreme novices hurdle won by al ferof . he is a strong traveller and good jumper and although he looked to be outstayed by bobs worth in a 2.4 mile novice chase at newbury this year he looked all over the winner untill collared on the line ,he had been in front a long time and was just worn down by the strong staying hendo horse. he may not be aimed at the race but at the price you only need to put peanuts on for a possible big return and it could well be on connections minds to try 3 miles and a smallish  win and place bet could be rewarded . have already suggested silvinio conte for this race and no harm having a few decent priced horses running for you ,a bit of a speculative one but if he makes the gig and  gets the trip you should get a decent run for your money . as always input and insight welcome and good luck .
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Report stevo1 December 21, 2012 9:53 AM GMT
And a Tube strike!
Report buddeliea December 21, 2012 12:10 PM GMT
COC'S are usually optimisic about racing going ahead and with going predictions.
If you live down south not far from Surrey you know what weather weve had,and as its soft at the moment it stands to reason with the predicted rain coming over the next few days,then it will get softer.
Forecast rain on Boxing Day wont help matters either.
Report johntucker December 21, 2012 6:57 PM GMT
The market would suggest that SDC runs. Surprised
Report JOCI Club December 21, 2012 9:33 PM GMT
Updated for Junior's supplementary entry.

Horse    Score
Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%
Kauto Stone 61%
Wishfull Thinking 54%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Hunt Ball 50%
Finian´s Rainbow 48%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
Menorah 35%
For Non Stop 34%
Sir Des Champs 34%
Report PeteTheBloke December 21, 2012 9:50 PM GMT
Nobody wants Cue Cards now. Anyone heard anything?
Report PeteTheBloke December 21, 2012 9:53 PM GMT
*Card
Report FOYLESWAR December 21, 2012 10:16 PM GMT
strengthened up now ,just the market  adjusting and settling down  now i reckon pete
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 21, 2012 10:37 PM GMT
Yeah thats what i hope it is too what with SDC shortening up quite a bit the markets adjusting itself i think.

Well at least i hope it is anyways Scared

Really could do without SDC being in the race, but hey ho thats just being selfish that like Shocked
Report judorick December 21, 2012 10:45 PM GMT
Cu Card very weak, virtually no money trying to get on - 6.8 to lay for £44
Report festivalfanatic December 21, 2012 10:47 PM GMT
Final decs Monday?
Report FOYLESWAR December 21, 2012 10:51 PM GMT
it was like that earier judo about 9 o clock ,weak, firmsup again ,then  weak again.
Report judorick December 21, 2012 11:06 PM GMT
can only monitor... hmmm
Report JOCI Club December 21, 2012 11:31 PM GMT
Sir Des Champs gets promoted a few places as it looks like he could go off at 8/1 or less..

Horse    Score
Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%
Kauto Stone 61%
Wishfull Thinking 54%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Hunt Ball 50%
Finian´s Rainbow 48%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Sir Des Champs 43%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
Menorah 35%
For Non Stop 34%
Report turnip turns December 22, 2012 10:10 AM GMT
Kauto Stone looking a non runner on betfair .
Report Fallen Angel December 22, 2012 10:30 AM GMT
yeah significant drift on Kauto stone. Nothing from the yard yet.
Report judorick December 22, 2012 10:57 AM GMT
just came on to say the same
Report Fallen Angel December 22, 2012 11:09 AM GMT
I thought he was certain to go whatever the ground so odd that he has drifted
Report Brooksielad December 22, 2012 11:21 AM GMT
just drifting because of the support for sir and now grand cru. doubt nicholls will not have a runner in the race unless its injured but tbh If it was injured Nicholls would be open.
Report Fallen Angel December 22, 2012 11:28 AM GMT
@brooksielad, thought exactly the same. Too much money on the line not to have any runner and they are pretty transparent
Report PeteTheBloke December 22, 2012 12:31 PM GMT
Cue Card 6/1 here now.

@festivalfanatic - Market closes Sunday so I think the final decs must be early for Christmas.
Report PeteTheBloke December 22, 2012 12:38 PM GMT
Something funny's going on. Whenever the market does this, news always follows in my experience. SDC and Cue Card
are too easy to bet.
Report sisyphus December 22, 2012 12:56 PM GMT
Maybe Rubi rides Sir Dessy
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y December 22, 2012 1:01 PM GMT
betting down with Billies, Ladcrokes and Veeee Ceeeee
Report PeteTheBloke December 22, 2012 1:42 PM GMT
B0yles go 9.4 LR with a run. That's starting to look quite attractive...
Report turnip turns December 22, 2012 2:14 PM GMT
Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
Sir Des Champs will miss the King George and run in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on Friday
Report Graeme83 December 22, 2012 2:19 PM GMT
He was never going to go. Todays prices were about the bookies knowing he wasn't going, but making it loook as if he was being backed so that people rushed in there with money.
Report terriers December 22, 2012 2:29 PM GMT
What happens to all ante post bets if the kempton meeting does not take place,hopefully the meeting will go ahead but just curious as to what happens to say al ferof bets that were put on with 26th december marked on?? I did think they would all be void even if race was run on a different day but still at kempton??Confused
Report turnip turns December 22, 2012 2:34 PM GMT
If the event doesn't take place,all bets are returned .
Report Millerracing67 December 22, 2012 2:43 PM GMT
Sounds like you bet Al Ferof terriers??
If the meeting got called off on the 26th Dec, you would still not get your ante-p bet back on Al Ferof, as he was taken out this wk due to a set back.
Report terriers December 22, 2012 2:43 PM GMT
Cheers turnip turns!!
Report turnip turns December 22, 2012 3:39 PM GMT
Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
The Nicky Henderson-trained Finian's Rainbow will miss the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Report JOCI Club December 22, 2012 3:50 PM GMT
Makes sense, with 2 other runners, and him hating the ground last time out.
Report JOCI Club December 22, 2012 3:53 PM GMT
Sir Des Champs stays in Ireland for the Lexus.
Report PeteTheBloke December 22, 2012 4:09 PM GMT
Dropping like flies now. There's talk of Hunt Ball and Champion Court going out.
Which ones are definite runners? Long Run and Junior... what else?
Report Graeme83 December 22, 2012 4:21 PM GMT
I don't think Grand Crus will run either. The field is a bit decimated. I've beens stung badly so i'm going to swerve this race and forget about it. Good luck to any of you folks who still have vouchers kickin about.
Report judorick December 22, 2012 4:41 PM GMT
so mare the final decs tomorrow?

and what news of rainfall at Kempton today?
Report turnip turns December 22, 2012 4:42 PM GMT
final decs tomoz,market closes at 10am.
Report judorick December 22, 2012 5:06 PM GMT
cheers turnips
Report FOYLESWAR December 22, 2012 5:27 PM GMT
judo i am in london and we have had an unbelivable amount of rain, from about 4 in the morning to about 11 o clock it was torrential rain and it has eased a bit but it has not really stopped and is still coming down steadily now !
Report judorick December 22, 2012 5:54 PM GMT
blimey Foyles! Surprised
Report Meddler December 22, 2012 6:38 PM GMT
Why is For Non Stop such a big price?  If it turns up it must have a chance as it has decent from on soft and for me has been crying out for this trip.
Report judorick December 22, 2012 7:20 PM GMT
Cue Card gave him 7lbs and a 4 length beating so he has bundles to find for a start
Report Brooksielad December 22, 2012 8:16 PM GMT
Kauto Stone now looks the one imo. Happy t be on at big prices will have a save on Long Run.
Report thebeg December 22, 2012 8:36 PM GMT
kauto stone is in good form and wont mind the ground,thats for sure, sez pumpkin
Report judorick December 23, 2012 10:52 AM GMT
10 declared:

Long Run, Riverside Theatre, Kauto Stone, Cue Card, For Non Stop, Captain Chris, Champion Court, Junior, Grands Crus and The Giant Bolster confirmed.
Report sintonian December 23, 2012 12:35 PM GMT
Clerk of the course Barney Clifford said: “It is soft, heavy in places - 60 per cent soft, 40 per cent heavy. We have some showers this afternoon, up to 10mm, and possibly more showers tomorrow.” (9 mins ago)
Report gutfeeling December 23, 2012 4:45 PM GMT
Hell of a field and couldn't say i'd be shocked if any of them got the win.
Report Howdi December 23, 2012 5:56 PM GMT
I'd be dissapointed if Kauto Stone won with some of his form from last season.
Report judorick December 23, 2012 6:05 PM GMT
yes and the form of his win in Ireland has been shown to be weak with First Lieutenant and Quito de la Roque both well beaten in lower grade since.

Kauto Stone will need to improve significantly on that form to win this red hot contest
Report JOCI Club December 23, 2012 6:06 PM GMT
Final field ratings:

Horse    Score
Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%
Kauto Stone 61%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
For Non Stop 34%

Selection: Long Run
Report judorick December 23, 2012 10:45 PM GMT
Timeform examine each runner in the prestigious King George VI Chase, set to be run at Kempton on Boxing Day...
Captain Chris won the 2010/11 Arkle and was as good as ever when landing a 19f Grade 2 at Ascot on recent reappearance, but will do well to better his third in this contest last year.
Champion Court took well to chasing last term, posting several good placed efforts alongside his 2 wins. Sure to be sharper for return over an inadequate trip, but needs to scale new heights to get involved.                   
Cue Card was the only horse to get close to Sprinter Sacre when second in Arkle last term. Most impressive when making a winning return in Haldon Gold Cup on reappearance, and breeding offers hope he will stay 3m.
For Non Stop improved when making a winning return in Grade 2 Old Roan Chase. Backed that up when second to Captain Chris at Ascot last month, but bit to find to trouble the principals now tackling 3m over fences.
Grands Crus looked an outstanding novice when slamming Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth in Feltham on this card a year ago, but something to prove following latest flop in Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Junior jumped fluently when making all to regain winning thread at Newcastle on recent reappearance. Connections forked out £10,000 to supplement him for this, nonetheless, looks up against it.
Kauto Stone got back on track when proving too strong for First Lieutenant in Grade 1 JNwine Chase at Down Royal in November. Could reach a place given stamina doubts surrounding many of the others.
Long Run won this and the Gold Cup in 2010/11 season. Not the dominant force he promised to be in this division since, but still the one to beat given the doubts surrounding many of his rivals.
Riverside Theatre landed 3 Grade 1 events on the bounce since chasing home Long Run in this race two seasons ago. Disappointing when last seen at Aintree in April, but contender given good record fresh.
The Giant Bolster confirmed himself a top-class chaser when runner-up in Cheltenham Gold Cup last season. Cemented improvement when third in Betfair Chase on return, but probably playing for place money again.
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Cue Card
2. Long Run
3. Riverside Theatre
Timeform View: Long Run's two career-best performances have come in this race, but he isn't bombproof by any means, and the likely strong pace could put his jumping under pressure. With that in mind it may pay to take a chance with Cue Card, whose breeding offers hope that he will stay this far. Riverside Theatre and Kauto Stone may fare best of the rest.
Report Steeplechasing December 24, 2012 7:57 PM GMT
Cue Card is different class from the rest, including Long Run. If he stays, he wins
Report bbsband December 24, 2012 10:11 PM GMT
Yes if he stays could well win.
Fancy For non stop to be staying on if he can do
a clear round...big e/w price
Report King Selassie I December 24, 2012 10:33 PM GMT
It's absolutely teeming down here in Seth London. Expect the KG to be run over  more like 3 & 1/2 miles not 3,. Non stayers will be found out after 2 & 1/2 miles. In fact it is raining so hard, I'll be surprised if meet goes ahead?
Report judorick December 24, 2012 11:41 PM GMT
the meeting is 1.07 to be on
Report FOYLESWAR December 25, 2012 8:25 AM GMT
it is pishing down in south east london and i dont mean a few showers here and there constant heavy rain from last night and when i woke this morning it is raining even harder i would say this wont go ahead tommoz ,even the ducks in my local pond were heard muttering something about a game of soldiers !
Report Hibore December 25, 2012 8:45 AM GMT
1 mile from track and has been raining for 3 or 4 hours on and off.

1.07 is not great odds to be honest..
Report FOYLESWAR December 25, 2012 10:45 AM GMT
1.13 to be on now and still coming down !
Report PeteTheBloke December 25, 2012 10:46 AM GMT
From Racing Post site at 10am Xmas day

Going change at Kempton
The going at Kempton is now heavy. Don't worry, the meeting is not at risk. A thunderstorm deposited 6mm of rain overnight causing the going to ease. The rain is still falling, but is expected to ease shortly.
Report Fallen Angel December 25, 2012 7:35 PM GMT
Looking at some of the previous comments I would be amazed if Kauto stone was good enough to win. His best performance on the ratings was 166 but this was against two horses who are only championship level. First lieutenant ran creditably enough but was recieving a pound and beaten 8L by Bob's worth doesn't suggest that horse is a serious force over 3m. Quito de la roque never quite done it in Grade 1s at the highest level. Even that last performance was much in excess of anything Kauto Stone had done before and I wonder if it was just a fluke. He will have to run more than 10 better than that to have a chance and Ruby seemed to say as much when he said he would be surprised if he was good enough.
Report Brooksielad December 25, 2012 9:00 PM GMT
fallen angel, perhaps Ruby is playing down Kauto Stones chances. Personally i think that grade 1 win over in ireland is some of the best form on offer this season. Only Long Runs run behind Silviniaco Conti was probably better, that because Conti will turn out to be a gold cup winner. If Quito and First Lt are only championship level, then i presume you think something in the king george field is of a higher lvl...? Long Run is no super star and the newcomers are nothing special. His beating of First Lt which was fairly easy will stand him in good stead for finishing in the first 3 at least.
Report Fallen Angel December 25, 2012 10:19 PM GMT
would argue that Cue card has also produced a bit of top class form as well. All about opinions but I will probably be place laying him in the run. I had him 5th /6th best horse in the race. I maybe proved wrong, it has certainly happened before.
Report buddeliea December 26, 2012 8:44 AM GMT
Well ive decided now that LR is the most likely winner given conditions and proven stayer,but of course hes fav,and price is too short for me.RT,CC,GC and KS are also too short with question marks that surround them.

So i am backing all the rest small for a bit of fun.

Race has become a bit of a lottery imo,so think it wise to keep my powder dry for other days.
Report buddeliea December 26, 2012 9:13 AM GMT
David Bridgwater:

2 horse race,us and Long Run !!
Report roobuck December 26, 2012 9:17 AM GMT
Absolutely love that enthusiasm and how down to earth he is. What a complete contrast to LR connections. If he wins will be great for the sport, rubbish for my pocket however.
Report festivalfanatic December 26, 2012 9:23 AM GMT
I don't know what will win this and a bit like budd, I wouldn't be totally surpised to see a complete outsider collect. If they make plenty of use of Long Run however, on this ground I think half the field will have cried 'enough' before turning in.
Report buddeliea December 26, 2012 9:23 AM GMT
me too mate,enjoyed listening to him,and would indeed be good for the sport.
And unlike your good self my pocket will be ok,took 20's the other day.
not sure the ground and right handed will suit,but i reckon he was a bit of value at 20,especially with the price of LR,who he bear fair and square in the gold cup.
Report brandyontherocks December 26, 2012 9:29 AM GMT
great shout from the opening poster ,Foyles,  100-1 on Cue Card was a great pick.
I'm on Cue Card too but agree with others this heavy going could definitely help the staying ability of Long Run.
I hope Joe doesn't disappoint the horse and try to drop CC in. He is a naturally keen and exuberant sort, he likes to front run and see his fences. I think Joe has done quite a good job with him thus far and fingers crossed he sticks to front running tactics and gets Long Run out of his comfort zone and exposes his poor jumping.
Report Brooksielad December 26, 2012 10:15 AM GMT
I'd be very worried about the ground with Grand Cru anything worse than Good/Soft he has been beaten bar 1 race, mix that in with his recent wind op, all I can see connections doing today is ruining the horse even further.
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 10:20 AM GMT
For Non Stop non runner.
Report FOYLESWAR December 26, 2012 10:22 AM GMT
thanks brandy yeah hope that they point and shoot with cue card ,would hate to see him held up and pulling tizzes arms off ,ride him prominent and let him ping the fences and see what happens . one of the few  in the race who have the potential to go to the top.
Report judorick December 26, 2012 10:31 AM GMT
if you look over the last 30 years, this race has hardly ever been won by anything priced bigger than 10/1, in fact most are 8/1 or less so I will be extremely surprised if an outsider wins but of course incidents do happen like Barton Bank falling with the race won

I've had some 7.2 Cue Card, 10 Grands Crus and 9.8 TGB and will be playing in running

good luck folks, what a great race in prospect
Report harry callaghan December 26, 2012 10:47 AM GMT
think champion court has been completely overlooked here and feel he can place at a nice price captain chris is interesting also...

long run with bronco billy on board is regressive and as much as he is a price to find out that has to be taken on trust on what we have seen recently...he has been on the go a very long time and is starting to look very exposed...

cue card is interesting but hasn't been trained or ridden to ever get 3 miles and that worries me personally, hazzard continually letting the horse run loose instead of reining him in and educating him...if he wins after being ridden this way he is a monster but he won't be able to pull and get home here on this ground and until the horse is ridden to get further he cannot be backed with confidence...

riverside theatre is a proper grade 1 horse but has come up short in this race before

the giant bolster is interesting as ran a nice prep at haydock but has never been right handed and not sure with the ground for him...

anyway the race stinks with so many horses with questions to answer champion court should not be overlooked in the place market and that is where I'm at, he was over the top when beaten at aintree and needed the run last time, ground will be ok for him also, had a little of the 38's also which is an insult...captain chris has plenty to find but only goes right handed and will be trained for the minute for this after jumping very well at ascot last time... with very limited opportunities this is his big day so he is worth a poke at 20's although he has been weak on here the last week which is a slight concern but that maybe down to the ground... although the ground is against him it may help his jumping and he was ok at ascot last time on it...some will say neither are good enough but I think they are both capable of running to 170 and that maybe good enough

well off to cook the roast which is a nap to be goodGrin good luck foyles with what was a good shout to start the tread off with... has been a good read...
Report Millerracing67 December 26, 2012 1:02 PM GMT
With the ground as it is (heavy) i expect Long Run will take the prize 2day.
Gd luck all.
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 3:39 PM GMT
Final field ratings:

Horse    Score
Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%

Kauto Stone 61%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
For Non Stop 34%

Selection: Long Run

The trends knew! Happy
Report toberaheena December 26, 2012 4:35 PM GMT
Laid Al Ferof antepost and Cue Card in running. Happy.
Report turnip turns December 26, 2012 4:57 PM GMT
nice work again joci clubCool
Report Steeplechasing December 26, 2012 5:19 PM GMT
Well done LR backers.

Foyles, you got a great price but CC did not enjoy that from the outset - serious blunder at first, mistake at 2nd, took a bad bump turning away on first circuit which seemed to unsettle him even more. Must have had every chance of getting that trip on good ground; nothing went his way today (although he won at Exeter, he might well have a preference for going left handed) but you should get your cash back in Ryanair
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 6:00 PM GMT
Think Tidal Bay might have gone very close today in this, after all it turned into a slog, and the staying power of Long Run prevailed.
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 6:04 PM GMT
And Dynaste's time in the Feltham was 3.5 seconds faster than the King George winning time, and he finished like a fresh horse.

You have to balance against that the fact that there was a lot of rain before / during the King George which would probably have made the ground even more testing, but still a very encouraging performance by by Dynaste.
Report GoldCupWinner December 26, 2012 6:06 PM GMT
I backed Dynaste thx to your trends so thank you. I was going to back Long Run but fell asleep!
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 6:10 PM GMT
Cool and Blush
Report Brooksielad December 26, 2012 10:01 PM GMT
grand cru ran quicker in the feltenham. I wouldn't look to much into the times. really surprised conti hasn't shortened for the gold cup. captain Chris pleasantly surprised me and could turn up in a national one day. pretty disappointed with kauto stone thought he was going to enjoy the ground but he just seemed to get swallowed up by it. cue card as expected and as for tgb well the trainer must feel a right prat after giving it the big'n this morning. don't think we've seen the gold cup 1st 2nd or 3rd run today imo
Report festivalfanatic December 26, 2012 10:14 PM GMT
Agree Brooksielad. Doubt the Gold Cup winner ran in the King George today.
Report ACStafford December 26, 2012 11:11 PM GMT
Not saying he'll win it, but I'll be very surprised if Long Run's not in the first three in the Gold Cup.
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 11:39 PM GMT
Brooksielad 26 Dec 12 22:01 
grand cru ran quicker in the feltenham. I wouldn't look to much into the times. really surprised conti hasn't shortened for the gold cup. captain Chris pleasantly surprised me and could turn up in a national one day. pretty disappointed with kauto stone thought he was going to enjoy the ground but he just seemed to get swallowed up by it. cue card as expected and as for tgb well the trainer must feel a right prat after giving it the big'n this morning. don't think we've seen the gold cup 1st 2nd or 3rd run today imo


He did seem to win it very easily though, which in today's conditions was all the more impressive.
Report ReaseHeath December 26, 2012 11:44 PM GMT
I wonder if Pipey will think about putting Dynaste in Gold Cup - considered it last year with Grands Crus and that one must be more likely for Ryanair now.

Gold Cup looks stronger this year so he may be more inclined to go novice route with Dynaste.
Report gutfeeling December 27, 2012 12:11 AM GMT
10 of the last 11 Gold Cup winners were 1st or 2nd in either The Lexus or King George,Bring on the Lexus as i can't see LR regaining the GC.
Report FOYLESWAR November 25, 2013 4:17 PM GMT
only about 18 months premature ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^CryCryCryCryCryCry
Report judorick November 25, 2013 5:19 PM GMT
judorick 19 Dec 12 11:56 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 19,782 | Blogger: judorick's blog
It's always very interesting to see how people think about stuff and the comments they make

I've had Cue Card on my mind for quite some time now and have been reflecting on everything that has happened. My conclusions are that everything he has done in his entire racing career (which consists of just 13 races since 25 Jan 2010) has been preparation for this stage of his career. He is about to embark on what will be, his trainer thinks and hopes, a career as a top class steeplechaser and next week the King George is going to reveal plenty about him and his likely future. Drawing hard and fast conclusions based on what he has done so far hardly seems worthwhile, I think the best we can do is think about the spectrum of possibilities and rank them in order of likelihood. There are doubts about his stamina, from some quarters, and people already say 'he's a two and a half miler' and so on but I remind you that there were similar doubts about Best Mate at the same age (also won the Haldon Gold Cup on debut as a 6yo). I don't think anyone can say for sure but the trainer and jockey have no doubts that he will stay. They also report him as 'much stronger' which is entirely normal for a horse about to turn 7 years old.

My own opinion is that, on balance, the horse is more likely to end up a true Grade 1 staying chaser than anything else. The other possibility would be that he remains at intermediate trips and tries 3 miles now and then in King George. I think it extremely unlikely he will be tried at minimum distances. The collateral form is outstanding and I think we can already see that getting that close to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, over a trip too short, was an excellent effort. Indeed, Kicking King ran similarly when second to Well Chief in the Arkle and he went on to be a top staying chaser. With Al Ferof, Menorah (won a Grade 1), Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card himself all winning since the Arkle it really points to the strength of the form. Bobs Worth has of course also franked the form in no uncertain terms - we could argue all day about whether BW is better than CC as that issue is yet to be resolved. However, I do think the Arkle form is significantly stronger than the RSA chase form so it will be interesting to see how that progresses over the next couple of years.

I have not had a bet in the King George but I have taken up the 'ante post offer' from VictorBet which gives you a bet to the same amount if the horse does not run and I have backed Cue Card for the Gold Cup at 33/1. If CC wins the KG and the trainer then states his intention to go for the Gold Cup, and I think he will if happens, then surely CC will be trading somewhere near the head of the market. And if CC fails to stay then he surely won't run in the Gold Cup meaning I get to use the 'ante post offer' and stick the bet on another horse or race.

As I said earlier in the thread, I have looked back through the race all the way to 1980 and I have to say that Long Run is really the only horse that truly fits all the trends as a typical King George winner so I will not be surprised if he wins at all. Kauto Stone also fits quite a few of the trends (won more than 1 Grade 1 chase, won at 3 miles, won last time out etc) so he would continue the trend if he won. However, I'm hoping that Cue Card fulfills the other key trend that struck me when I was researching the last 30 odd years of the King George which is that this race has been the proving ground for top class horses. Time and again stars reveal the true extent of their ability, for the first time in their career, in the King George. Kicking King, Best Mate, See More Business, Desert Orchid, The Fellow, and I'm sure others, all displayed their class (and or ability to stay) here for the first time before going on to have fantastic careers. The race is a proving ground for stars and I'm hoping that everything Cue Card has done up to now has set him up to make a similar impact and that he turns out to be a truly top class horse. Hope I'm right, would be great to have another new superstar staying chaser around
Report Angel Gabrial November 25, 2013 5:24 PM GMT
Steeplechasing
Steeplechasing 26 Dec 12 17:19 Joined: 18 Jul 03 | Topic/replies: 819 | Blogger: Steeplechasing's blog
Well done LR backers.

Foyles, you got a great price but CC did not enjoy that from the outset - serious blunder at first, mistake at 2nd, took a bad bump turning away on first circuit which seemed to unsettle him even more. Must have had every chance of getting that trip on good ground; nothing went his way today (although he won at Exeter, he might well have a preference for going left handed) but you should get your cash back in Ryanair

It`s not all about you Judo and Steeplechasing actually pinpoints races.
Report Angel Gabrial November 25, 2013 5:27 PM GMT
BTW Foyles must think that it is Summer time in 2014 Laugh
Report judorick November 25, 2013 5:37 PM GMT
I know, it's Foyles thread, he takes the plaudits, had the vision from a long way out

just pointing out that I said 'the horse is more likely to end up a true Grade 1 staying chaser than anything else' well in advance of the KG, many were saying I never predicted he would stay 3 miles only yesterday, just providing the proof

I had totally forgotten about this thread, it was Foyles that bumped it.
Report Angel Gabrial November 25, 2013 5:54 PM GMT
You had less doubts than most Judo, that`s for sure.

I didn`t like the idea of Cue Card being restrained over the extended trip and in the KG last year they were up against it on heavy ground, perhaps they should have withdrawn him in hindsight it was too much for any 6 year old.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 25, 2013 5:54 PM GMT
So you backed Cue Card at 33s for the gold cup of 2014 Judo or last year hence the 'about 18 months premature' remark?
Report FOYLESWAR November 25, 2013 6:17 PM GMT
judo had massive confidence and enthusiasm for the horse this season and he stuck to his guns so all credit to him and his work is beggining to bear fruit with some cracking  ante post odds on cue card ,hope you got some  k.george gold cup double odds judo .  touch wood we will have decent ground for king george and the horse will get the chance to show his true form, the early mistakes and being buzzed up ( they seem to have got that sorted now) didnt do the horse any favours last year also trying to jump out of bad ground he couldnt get into a natural rhythm ,now they know 100% he gets 3 miles  and on good to soft can see him pinging the kempton fences and getting a lot of the field at it a fair way from home.
thinking  about cue cards chance in the gold cup and the more i think about it the better his chance looks as bobs worth dont look as solid as he did on paper before the betfair. 8s is very fair for cue card as if he wins the king george he will be much shorter  and i think i will have some of that . bit of a speculative one i have also backed simonsig for the gold cup at massive odds  a lot of ifs buts and maybes but, connections may fancy their chances and one of a few with untapped potential and plenty of room for improvement .good luck
Report FOYLESWAR November 25, 2013 6:20 PM GMT
no seethe stars i put up the 18 months premature comment harking to last years king george, read thread .
Report FOYLESWAR November 25, 2013 6:24 PM GMT
ange gab well done on the ryanaire call , good insight .
Report Angel Gabrial November 25, 2013 7:44 PM GMT
It was Steeplechasing Foyleswar, not me.

I agree with you about Cue Card and the Gold Cup, when Kauto Star won the Betfair Chase he was a similar price for the Gold Cup and i have the same feeling for Cue Card now. He is still at a backable price because of preconceived ideas about his stamina, but if you look at the roll call of Betfair Chase winners they all had enough stamina for a Gold Cup.
Report JOCI Club December 10, 2013 10:45 PM GMT
Final field ratings:

Horse    Score
Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%
Kauto Stone 61%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
For Non Stop 34%

Selection: Long Run

The trends knew! Laugh
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