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king george chase kempton 2012

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By:
Brooksielad
When: 18 Dec 12 21:38
think he means conti lol
By:
Brooksielad
When: 18 Dec 12 21:39
if cue card lined up against bobs worth over 3 miles he'd get spanked
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Dec 12 21:42
yep,i would agree brooksie.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Dec 12 21:53
how do you know that brooksie ?  cue card seems to have improved and settles better he looked all over the winner at newbury giving bobs 7pound if he gets 3miles think he would have the speed to give bobs something to think about especially at levels !
By:
Brooksielad
When: 18 Dec 12 22:34
If cue card was ever going to beat Bobs Worth it would of been on bobs worth first start over fences having his first run of the season over a trip far to short. In the supreme he came there tanking and faded. Has just always struck me as a horse that just don't find much when spent.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 19 Dec 12 00:02
I am going to take back what i said about cue card if he took them along he would have no chance of winning this race.

1, i forgot about that run behind bobs worth when giving the now gold cup fav and probable winner of that race 7iB!

and

2, The great One Man did it! Well he did take it up with at least a circuit to go when the race was run at Sandown, a far trickier course than kempton will ever be!
By:
duffy
When: 19 Dec 12 00:26
One man was a 3 miler though and didn't pull and had the requisite class to win a queen mum because he had to beat ask tomCry in perhaps the worst queen mum in years,another question we don't know the answer to is how will CC react to being asked to race slower and conserve every single bit of energy he can because although he settles better these days he by no means has it cracked yet, I reckon he will want to go quicker and waste energy, I just can't have him at all, he's all speed.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 19 Dec 12 00:55
Cue Card is a hard one to fathom out. At the end of his hurdle days he was looking short of finishing speed and the `experts` were out in force suggesting he needs to step up in trip. Over 2 miles chasing he looks to have plenty of 2 mile zip.

So what`s the score over 3 miles at Kempton, will he just be tugging for the first mile. I think he will if they try and restrain him so let him bowl along and enjoy himself rather than frustrating him behind. Either way he has to stay the trip well to win.
By:
alleged22
When: 19 Dec 12 05:08
bobs worth hadnt had the breathing op when he beat cue card over a distance too short for him and over cue cards ideal distance
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 19 Dec 12 08:47
Yes Bob`s Worth has improved by 20lb since that race with Cue Card stepping by 10lb.

Without Sprinter Sacre i would be calling Cue Card a Queen Mother contender, and possibly as an Arkle winner he would be.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 19 Dec 12 09:05
Bob's Worth's the next Best Mate! Shocked

You heard it here first ! Wink
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 19 Dec 12 09:40
If only he jumped like Best Mate he would be awesome. Mind you imagine if Big Bucks jumped like Best Mate.
By:
judorick
When: 19 Dec 12 11:56
It's always very interesting to see how people think about stuff and the comments they make

I've had Cue Card on my mind for quite some time now and have been reflecting on everything that has happened. My conclusions are that everything he has done in his entire racing career (which consists of just 13 races since 25 Jan 2010) has been preparation for this stage of his career. He is about to embark on what will be, his trainer thinks and hopes, a career as a top class steeplechaser and next week the King George is going to reveal plenty about him and his likely future. Drawing hard and fast conclusions based on what he has done so far hardly seems worthwhile, I think the best we can do is think about the spectrum of possibilities and rank them in order of likelihood. There are doubts about his stamina, from some quarters, and people already say 'he's a two and a half miler' and so on but I remind you that there were similar doubts about Best Mate at the same age (also won the Haldon Gold Cup on debut as a 6yo). I don't think anyone can say for sure but the trainer and jockey have no doubts that he will stay. They also report him as 'much stronger' which is entirely normal for a horse about to turn 7 years old.

My own opinion is that, on balance, the horse is more likely to end up a true Grade 1 staying chaser than anything else. The other possibility would be that he remains at intermediate trips and tries 3 miles now and then in King George. I think it extremely unlikely he will be tried at minimum distances. The collateral form is outstanding and I think we can already see that getting that close to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, over a trip too short, was an excellent effort. Indeed, Kicking King ran similarly when second to Well Chief in the Arkle and he went on to be a top staying chaser. With Al Ferof, Menorah (won a Grade 1), Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card himself all winning since the Arkle it really points to the strength of the form. Bobs Worth has of course also franked the form in no uncertain terms - we could argue all day about whether BW is better than CC as that issue is yet to be resolved. However, I do think the Arkle form is significantly stronger than the RSA chase form so it will be interesting to see how that progresses over the next couple of years.

I have not had a bet in the King George but I have taken up the 'ante post offer' from VictorBet which gives you a bet to the same amount if the horse does not run and I have backed Cue Card for the Gold Cup at 33/1. If CC wins the KG and the trainer then states his intention to go for the Gold Cup, and I think he will if happens, then surely CC will be trading somewhere near the head of the market. And if CC fails to stay then he surely won't run in the Gold Cup meaning I get to use the 'ante post offer' and stick the bet on another horse or race.

As I said earlier in the thread, I have looked back through the race all the way to 1980 and I have to say that Long Run is really the only horse that truly fits all the trends as a typical King George winner so I will not be surprised if he wins at all. Kauto Stone also fits quite a few of the trends (won more than 1 Grade 1 chase, won at 3 miles, won last time out etc) so he would continue the trend if he won. However, I'm hoping that Cue Card fulfills the other key trend that struck me when I was researching the last 30 odd years of the King George which is that this race has been the proving ground for top class horses. Time and again stars reveal the true extent of their ability, for the first time in their career, in the King George. Kicking King, Best Mate, See More Business, Desert Orchid, The Fellow, and I'm sure others, all displayed their class (and or ability to stay) here for the first time before going on to have fantastic careers. The race is a proving ground for stars and I'm hoping that everything Cue Card has done up to now has set him up to make a similar impact and that he turns out to be a truly top class horse. Hope I'm right, would be great to have another new superstar staying chaser around
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 19 Dec 12 12:33
Interesting thoughts judo.

I'd be very interested in Cue Card next week on decent ground. Due to his keen racing style, he'll struggle to get 3 miles even round Kempton if it is proper soft which seems likely. Suspect only Long Run or Kauto Stone will have the stamina to win.
By:
judorick
When: 19 Dec 12 13:47
that is only an assumption based on what you've seen so far. He could relish the soft going and glide along untroubled for all we know. As I said in my post, making hard and fast conclusions is not worthwhile, you simply cannot know whether he will struggle to do anything in advance as he is still unexposed. The King George will be the proving ground as I said above and we will be able to draw much firmer conclusions AFTER the race. For all we know he could be a 185+ chaser on soft ground over 3 miles - certainly if he could maintain his Arkle pace at the distance he would be a potent force. We will know next Wednesday
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 19 Dec 12 14:05
thats my wy of thinking too judo ,i always try to look for positives rather than dwell on negatives, for example he pulled last season ! does it mean he will pull in all his races forever more ? no.he made a few mistakes last time ,so he will naturally make mistakes in all his future races ? no of course not ! but many get it in their minds that it will always happen again ,i dont mind as i can get crazy prices on these overlooked horses .
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 19 Dec 12 14:31
I am sure Cue Card could win races at 3 miles, but i am still scratching my head to find a zippy type like Cue Card that has ever won the King George.

Unless of course he is deceiving us all with his keenness and in actual fact he is not exerting anything extra.
By:
Graeme83
When: 19 Dec 12 15:18
I hope nobody is daft enough to put a decent amount of money on SDS without NRNB. There's no way Mullins will send him over. He's at it all the time, and if he was going we would know. Some of these trainers like to make themselves look like smart arses over easy decisions.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 19 Dec 12 16:09
i am daft enough LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughShockedShocked
By:
toberaheena
When: 19 Dec 12 16:22
@Graeme83..... Do not want to sound like a smart a.se but Willie Mullins is one shrewd operator(and not, by being a smart a.se} champion trainer in Ireland by a long way.He is also a thorough gentleman.
By:
tinkler
When: 19 Dec 12 16:24
If Mullins is happy with the horse think there's everychance he'll run it especially if the ground doesn't look like being too bad.
He'll have noted the race is starting to cut up a bit and may see it as an easier option than taking on Flemenster in the Lexus.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 19 Dec 12 16:30
thats what i was thinking  tink ,last week he said the king george was tempting  and 50/50,and that was before al ferof was ruled out
By:
judorick
When: 19 Dec 12 16:34
he wouldn't be too shrewd imo if he thought the KG would be an easier option than the Lexus
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Dec 12 17:08
maybe he thinks he has more chance of winning the KG,as Flemenstar wont be there.
He looks special to me.
Gut feeling is they are both better than the horses in the KG.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 19 Dec 12 17:10
Had my first couple bets today in this race, LR 11/4 and cue card at 9/2. Cant see past CC so will be having him winning me the most in my book in fact will be a kind of jackpot horse. After watching that race again today with bobs worth i cant get past him anymore! Wish i had took some 10/1 in early October but never mind nothing can be done about that now and the race is a much different one now! May well cut up to a 9-12 runner affair, in fact i am sure it will, with them about the only certain runners, their prices are sure to not be bigger!

GL  Wink
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Dec 12 17:16
Agree FF,think if its soft it lessens the chance of CC getting home well enough.Hes a doubtful stayer as far as we know,so will need any help available,and the ground could be crucial.
I take Judo's points that he could be fine,he may be of course,but any value in the horse is long gone with the doubts that exist.
if i have a bet i will be concentrating on any horse at a decent price that i know will stay,if its soft as it looks like it will be.
By:
Brooksielad
When: 19 Dec 12 17:37
will be a two horse race long run and kauto stone two top class French horses that won the big races over there. Both won't mind the ground both will stay.
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Dec 12 17:40
Kauto Stone it is then BrooksieLaugh
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Dec 12 17:40
Thanks mate
Wink
By:
judorick
When: 19 Dec 12 17:43
historically the King George is one of the toughest races to win in the entire calendar and Flemenstar notwithstanding the Lexus is clearly a much weaker race so any idea that Mullins would choose the KG as an easier option is quite ludicrous.

I agree that there is no value at the current prices in Cue Card as there are too many doubts. That's exactly why I have done the ante post offer for the Gold Cup - there's virtually no downside. If he runs well enough to justify going for the Gold Cup then inevitably he must shorten in the market and if he doesn't run well enough then I take advantage of the offer.

Incidentally, I am far from convinced about Flemenstar as he is yet to produce a top class speed figure and in my experience virtually every truly top class horse had already produced what I regard as a fast time by this stage. One notable exception was First Gold who didn't produce a really fast time til nearly 3 years after winning the KG. It is rare but possible so I will hold fire from forming a definite opinion about Flemenstar until there is more evidence. Front running on bad ground in small fields is not conducive to running fast so I hope to see him run in some more competitive races so he can show us more
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Dec 12 17:56
Thats why its a gut feeling Judo,as they have a lot more to do yet,but both going the right way for sure.
I will be amazed if Flemenstar does not show us a lot more when hes extended,but again we wait and see.

As for the KG and Lexus,im not convinced we have a top KG coming up and think in time the lexus may well provide the better horses(if SDC and Flem run),yet again we wait and see.
The way the weather is we could potentially have a smallish KG field with horses struggling to get home.
Hope im wrong of course,but its possible.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 19 Dec 12 18:03
wellit is pis8ing down here in london as we speak .
By:
roobuck
When: 19 Dec 12 18:12
Well I agree with those who say SDC won't come over, it'll be better ground in Ireland by the looks of it.

It was worth a small investment after Al Ferof pulled out - still, decs are tomorrow aren't they? You never know, might be able to get out of it
By:
judorick
When: 19 Dec 12 18:32
well he doesn't look special to me I have to say. Sprinter Sacre produced a blistering time on his chase debut and that alone convinced me he was going straight to the top. Despite all the wins Flemenstar has done little to justify the hype for me. As it stands I definitely think Cue Card would beat Flemenstar in a true run race.
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Dec 12 18:40
Well thats something im sure would get people debating.
We can say all we like right now,the horses will tell us as the season progresses.
I reckon Flemenstar will be the top staying chaser this season,with SDC and Bobsworth challenging.
Only time will tell if im right.
By:
judorick
When: 19 Dec 12 18:54
As ever I disagree completely. I don't think Flemenstar or SDC will be anywhere near the top, certainly at staying distances. Saying that Synchronised had never run fast before winning the Gold Cup but then I think this time round will be a much stronger race. Convinced one of the British contenders will win it
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Dec 12 18:57
Laugh

Good,makes it all the more interesting.
By:
judorick
When: 19 Dec 12 19:17
Laugh
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 19 Dec 12 19:25
Bobsworth will win the GC. I know he's favourite but can't see anything else as solid as him. Hopefully Tidal Bay boosts the form in the lexus.
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Dec 12 19:34
Bl00dy favourite backer
Laugh

Im on Tidal Bay for the Gold Cup at 100,so love to see him win the Lexus.
A real soft festival he has a chance imo.

Bobsorth is pretty much bomb proof and has to be in with a big chance and is worthy fav at this stage imo,especially with his festival form.
Not sure he will be fav on the day though.If Flemenstar has proved hiself at 3m as i am pretty much convinced he will do,i expect him to be fav.
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