EPSOM DASH

Wouldnt play ante post on this event, get drawn 1, 2 or 3 and its very hard to win from out there

captain dunne if  gets nice draw

Dickie's Lad, been waiting for this to have another try at 5f (kyboshed leaving stall at Chester). York Glory ran too badly for me to forgive LTO, even with headgear back on.

Trends for the past 10 runnings of Epsom Dash (http://tinyurl.com/c58vpw5):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-0-9
4yo: 1-5-39
5yo: 1-8-33
6yo: 4-7-39
7yo: 1-1-23
8yo+: 3-7-30
Horses aged 3 to 5: 2-15-80
Horses aged 6 or older: 8-13-92

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-5-17
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-8-50
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-10-70
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-5-35
No very strong trend on the weights.
Horses carrying a penalty: 0-3-13
Top weight: 533073750951 (1-3-11)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 2-6-26
Horses rated 90 to 99: 5-13-89
Horses rated 89 or lower: 3-9-57
This race was changed from a listed handicap to class 2 in 2004, since then official ratings stats are:
Horses rated 100 or higher: 2-4-20
Horses rated 90 to 99: 3-11-73
Horses rated 89 or lower: 3-9-57

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 1 to 4 times that season (exception had 7 runs)
7 of 10 winners had yet to win that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 4 weeks
9 of 10 winners had run in at least 15 handicaps (winning at least 2)
10 of 10 winners had won over 5F
8 of 10 winners had won over 6F
9 of 10 winners had won a race worth 10K+
8 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher
9 of 10 winners had contested a listed or group race

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Captain Dunne): 50000480 (0-1-8)
Stellar Group Handicap winner (Confessional): 20183 (1-2-5)
Pommery Champagne Handicap winner (Bertoliver): 3 (0-1-1)
Betfred The Bonus King Bingo Stakes winner (Lui Rei): 30 (0-1-2)
Turf Club Stakes (Handicap) winner (Catfish): 70 (0-0-2)
Investec Specialist Bank Handicap winner (Cadeaux Pearl): 7069 (0-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in Investec Specialist Bank Handicap, finishing 62733
4 of 10 winners ran in Chester Stellar Group Handicap, finishing 9152
3 of 10 winners ran in Skybet Mobile Sprint H'cap, finishing 830
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Ayr Gold Cup, finishing 000
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Coral Sprint Trophy, finishing 000
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's King George Stakes, finishing 807
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's City Wall Stakes, finishing 12

Trainers
Dandy Nicholls (4-5-40) has won 4 of the last 10 runnings, though he has saddled around 23% of the total runners in the race since 2002.
Stuart Williams (2-2-6) has a fine record in this race, gaining 2 wins (33/1 & 7/1) and 2 places (20/1& 9/2) from 6 runners in the past 10 years.
Tim Easterby (1-2-4) saddled the first 2 home last year.
Andrew Balding (1-1-8) and Kevin Ryan (1-0-13) are the only other 2 trainers to have saddled the winner since 2002.
Hughie Morris (0-1-1), Ron Harris (0-1-2) and Simon Dow (0-1-3) have each saddled a placed finisher in past 4 years.

Draw
Horses draw 1 to 7: 1-8-70
Horses draw 8 to 14: 5-13-64
Horses drawn 15 to 20: 4-7-38
The last 9 winners were drawn 8 or higher
The only winner drawn lower than 8 was in the one running on ground softer than good, in 2002, when there was only 11 runners.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 13/2 and 16/1
No very strong trends on prices, though this is a race where we’ve seen a few upsets in the last 10 years, most notably in 2010 with a 33/1 winner.
The favourite (0-2-14) last won the race in 2001 and over the past 10 years the market leader has gained no wins and filled just 2 places, showing a level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 6 or older
•    Run 1 to 4 times this season
•    Had last run in past 28 days
•    Won over 5F and 6F
•    Won at class 2 or higher (worth 10K+)
•    Has run in a group or listed race
•    Finished in first 7 in Investec Specialist Bank Handicap
•    Finished in first 5 in Skybet Mobile Sprint and/or Stellar Group H'cap
•    Drawn 8 or higher
•    Trained by Dandy Nicholls, Stuart Williams or Tim Easterby

judge and jury been very well backed today and i'm encouraged by that stat about older horses doing well

looked over his problems lto, and could still be well treated if he's back to his best

any opinions on draw ? pleased to seee captain dunne got a double figure one.

I make Jamesway a steal at 14/1. He is well drawn, lower in the ratings than last year when he met trouble in running ( finished just over a length away) and acts on fastish ground.

Very similar type to Holbeck Gyhll that won a couple of years back.