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monksland
21 May 12 20:40
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Feb 12
| Topic/replies: 87 | Blogger: monksland's blog
Selection: TOWER ROCK e/w bet at 66/1 will hill, stam names!

Negatives first: won once in 6 races, stable might only run 1,
like most derby contenders unproven at trip. maybe a lot more, please contribute.

Positives: Improving with each run, group form at 3yrs, big price, especially as field size will prob be small(10-13 my guess)

Derrinstown stud derby trial O'Brien record
2011 recital 1st then 6th in derby at 5/1, memphis tenessee 2nd then 4th in derby at 20/1

2010 midas touch 1st then 5th in derby 6/1, at first sight3rd then 2nd in derby at 100/1

2009 fame and glory 1st then 2nd in derby at 9/4

2008 washington irving2nd then 5th in derby at 33/1

2007 archipenko1st then last in derby at 13/2(proven to be good horse subsequently) yellow rosebud 2nd then 8 in derby at 28/1.

and thats just the last 5 years other runners include tower rocks father dylan thomas, yeats, high chapperal and gallileo.
the purpose  of this is to show that O'briens derrinstown horses have, so far, always ran in the derby and have finished well even if at big odds.

tower rocks first run this year came in the ballysax where he finished 3rd ahead of better fancied O'brien runners athens and david livingston. he finished 4l back in 3rdbut first runs of the season has been needed for stables runners.
next up was the derrinstown, just 1 of 2 stable runners(a positive in itself) where he improved to be a nk second behind light heavy( though reportedly didn't like the ground) who he finished 4l behind on his previous run with a group winner 7l back in 3rd.
he has run 5 times which is adequate exp i feel and seems to be still improving so hopefully he will line up!

what are the thoughts of fellow forumites on his chances? and what odds do ye think light heavy would have been if lining up? surely lower than main sequence on form and profile who is a standout 14/1?
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Report roobuck May 21, 2012 10:14 PM BST
Well reasoned argument monksland - g/l with your bet
Report monksland May 22, 2012 1:05 AM BST
its crazy, people will be on here badmouthing coolmore if he finishes well at a big price, ruining racing etc.the only horses with better 3yo form are camelot, bonfire and kesampour.
he's following the route of past derby horses and he's improving. he's 66/1!

mariners cross is half his price, finished 2nd in a listed race. the winner went on to be 2nd in another listed race, he's also half his odds, as is the winner of that listed race where four finished in a bunch finish tought worthy.

parish hall is a quarter of his price. a 6f winner at 2, yet to reappear this year, who, "if" he runs well in irish 2000 guineas will run.
mickdam is half his price, already ran 6 times this year and battled to victory in a group 3 on his last start.

my fear for tower rock is he will be outclassed by the likes of camelot, bonfire and astrology and finish an admirable 4th or 5th which will be no good for my wallet.
Report monksland May 23, 2012 1:01 PM BST
anyone thinking of backing parish hall but worried about participation or even if runs a bad 2000 guineas, 14/1 boils NRNB is good value, 16/1 is best price available shops or machine, so for 2 points less a lot of risk taken out!
Report sinfin May 23, 2012 1:19 PM BST
ok i try and get me 10p each way on with them my next door neighbour lays a bigger bet they a joke
Report roobuck May 23, 2012 5:09 PM BST
monksland I did try but only offered my stake at SP, nothing at 14s
Report El Apache May 26, 2012 4:16 PM BST
Just taken a bit of 500 win and 45 place on here.
Report El Apache May 26, 2012 4:52 PM BST
Ladbrokes are lowest at 33/1 by the way.
Report chico quito May 28, 2012 9:32 AM BST
well reasoned argument for Rock there monks I like his profile but just feel he won't stay...coming round to Kesampour hope he runs
Report El Apache May 28, 2012 8:04 PM BST
1000G at Newmarket/ Curragh show that anything can happen with O`Briens horses.
Report push May 28, 2012 9:56 PM BST
Hope this horse runs in the Derby, think he has a good EWAY chance, may improve on G-F ground , just like his sire, from a brilliant family on the dams side of his pedigree, not sure to stay 1m4f, some of the  Irish Guineas form also works out quite well.
O, Brien has gone close in the past with some big priced outsiders.
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