Horse Antepost
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I put this horse up as a potential Arc winner last November after his comfortable Group 1 win at Saint-Cloud but expressed concern at a possible switch from Fabre's yard. Well, the writing was on the wall today with a unbeaten horse who was sent off 1/2 industry price last time being sent off at 11/2 in a less than stellar Dante.
The horse found absolutely nothing today and is yet another example of a stubborn, misguided policy from Godolphin to constantly take promising horses off a number of world class trainers seemingly just for the glory of having them win the biggest races under Dubai trainers.
While Godolphin had huge success with the policy in their early years, those days are long gone and for the past decade almost all the horses switched never fulfil their potential. The failure to even field a runner in the 2000 Guineas this year was nothing short of embarrassing for an operation of their size.
No one was better suited to train a son of Manduro than Andre Fabre and after debuting Mandaean in the same maiden as Hurricane Run, it's hard to believe he would've run as bad as today in a reappearance for him. It seems yet another potential star has gone the wrong way.
The horse found absolutely nothing today and is yet another example of a stubborn, misguided policy from Godolphin to constantly take promising horses off a number of world class trainers seemingly just for the glory of having them win the biggest races under Dubai trainers.
While Godolphin had huge success with the policy in their early years, those days are long gone and for the past decade almost all the horses switched never fulfil their potential. The failure to even field a runner in the 2000 Guineas this year was nothing short of embarrassing for an operation of their size.
No one was better suited to train a son of Manduro than Andre Fabre and after debuting Mandaean in the same maiden as Hurricane Run, it's hard to believe he would've run as bad as today in a reappearance for him. It seems yet another potential star has gone the wrong way.
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I'm not sure even M. Fabre can persuade horses to grow when they're not inclined to....and the simple fact is that horse hasn't trained on. He tiny
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I would also be interested in the Fabre 2-y-o G1 winners list. I have a (belated) feeling they are not a bunch you should put your house on at 3.
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From 1988:
2011 Mandaean 2007 Thewayyouare 2005 Linda's Lad 2005 Carlotamix 2000 Sagacity 1997 Xaar 1995 Loup Solitaire 1995 Miss Tahiti 1994 Pennekamp 1993 Sunshack 1992 Zafonic 1990 Lycius 1989 Jade Robbery 1988 Miserden Post Pennekamp and they've barely won a race between them. Interesting or just coincidence? |
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No evidence that Mandaean was any good. Winning over 10f at two is almost a guarantee you're no good.
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Their 2 1000 guineas horses got stuffed and they weren't trained abroad. If you like you could then question the trainer who won the race last year. I just think that it's a case of the horses not being good enough. Some people put 2 and 2 together and get the wrong answer. What exactly entitled Mandean to be a very good horse at 3 ?
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The Beast was Doomed as soon as i made him my TTF Banker.
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therefore surely godolphin should have a clue that he wasnt that great by today, according to them this was their derby horse.
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If O'brien swopped places with Al Zarooni and Bin suroor
imo within 2 years he'd be producing the same results he does for Coolmore. |
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I think Al Zarooni needs to be given some credit:
- Monterrosso - Capponi - Opinion Poll - Rewilding - Anna Salai All Group 1 winners or placed...transferred in from feeder yards. However, I agree today was bitterly bitterly disappointing. Was just so tiny (as observed above) and dropped back as though wasn't fit. Of all the representatives though this year, Lyric of Light was the most disappointing for me. Discourse had an excuse (dislocated back), not sure what to think of Lyric of Light - was last in a classic for goodness sake and no explanation. |
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She looked to stop as if shot, she may have been struck into??
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Possibly, but they have made press release about Discourse, if that was the case with Lyric of Light why not take opportunity to go on record?
In year's gone by people would have blamed shipping them over to Dubai but Lyric of Light, Discourse and Mandean were all wintered in Newmarket...ala Blue Bunting. So that cannot be the excuse. |
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Yes Elisjohn, you're right. How can they be so misguided about the quality of some of their horses?
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I cann't remember the year the dubai Carnival started but
they don't seem to have done as well in the UK since then. Their horses dominate alot of the carnival races year in year out but for some reason their horses don't appear to produce the same level of performance in the uk ,with some notable exceptions. With O'brien he dominates a lot of the top Irish races and seems to be able to get his horses to produce all over the world. For me this is due to O'briens training skill. If Homecoming Queen had been trained by Bin suroor would she have won the 1,000 guineas ? or be scratching around in 0-80 fillies handicaps at the likes of Yarmouth? For me it's the later but I could never prove it. I'd like to see O'brien take up a public liciense in the the UK to prove the point but accept that it's highly unlikely to happen. |
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I know there was no guarantee Mandaean would produce at 3 but I've followed French Racing for a number of years and never noticed a 2yo in a Group 1 available at 11/8 in the morning go off at 1/2. This suggested there was some serious buzz about the horse and the fact he won comfortably despite running green suggested there was more to come.
I believe a number of the horses transferred would've gone on to take big races if left alone. Dermot Weld said Dubai Prince was the best horse he'd had since Grey Swallow in 04 yet his runs for Godolphin have been dire. Al Zarooni has improved their fortunes but we've still seen some shocking runs from his horses in big races. There's been a real lack of scrutiny in the racing media of Godolphin and I can only assume it's due to the money Sheikh Mo puts into British Racing. Why can't there be constructive criticism? The bottom line is too many times we've seen Frankie watching the finish of a big race on the big screen while easing down his mount at the tail end. |
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It got to the stage where now, when considering Ten To Follow horses, I will be very cautious about selecting anything from Godolphin.
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Will hack up in a listed event @ Nottingham in the Autumn.!
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Dettori was not on Mandaen yesterday for a reason.
Lets see how Be Fabulous does today. |
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My TTF list consists of 7 AOB runners.
Bread & Butter, cheese & ham. |
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using o brien as your argument is wrong. how is power any different to mandaean or lyric of light. should he be fired because power was a group 1 winner who then finished 37ls behind in a classic as a 3yo.
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"If O'brien swopped places with Al Zarooni and Bin suroor
imo within 2 years he'd be producing the same results he does for Coolmore." Cuckoo cuckoo |
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I agree, Graeme - absolute nonsense.
Pour Moi winning the Derby last year was all the proof that was needed. Shakey had 150+ horses in that yard, the vast majority bred along Darley lines. Coolmore had 2, one of them being a Montjeu who happened to go and win the Derby. It's all about the blood and has nothing to do with trainers, surroundings or staff. |
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In fact, when you put what Fabre has handed over to Godolphin under the microscope it's not that impressive.
Rewilding (who admittedly may have won the Derby if left with the master), Cutlass Bay?, Cavalryman? We're already in trouble, aren't we? Not that this should reflect on Fabre, Zarooni, Suroor, Crisford or anyone at that level. It's quite simple - stallion battle lines were drawn a decade ago. Coolmore won. |
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Agree they cut their own throats by boycotting the Coolmore and therefore the best Northern Dancer line stallions. But I think that not using the best trainers like Cecil and Stoute also has a lot to do with it. And whose bright idea was it to give 2 year olds to the best in the business (Fabre) and then take them away? A nonsense of a strategy.
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Add to that allowing Coolmore to buy the best sons of their own stallions unopposed in the sales ring has probably sealed Godolphin's fate for generations.
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Bin Suroor used to be excellent, so the breeding argument, which I hadn't considered before, is quite plausible.
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Be Fabulous ran a stinker.
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Another day, another Fabre Group 1 winner tailed off. Be Fabulous had won her last 3, ran 7 times last year and wasn't beaten 2l in any of her defeats. I'd love to know what Fabre makes of the last few days.
On the breeding, there's no doubt Coolmore have had outstanding stock but I am a firm believer Darley have massively underachieved with the Godolphin plan. While Stoute is having a quiet year, it was only a year ago he produced the Derby Fav/3rd from a Sheikh Mo gift to The Queen. How many Singspiel types has the Sheikh missed out on with his policy? Quite a few I reckon. The only time Sheikh Mo has led the Derby winner in of late was with New Approach and you fear that wouldn't have happened if he'd bought the horse outright. The Dewhurst runner up Fast Cimpany was sent to Godolphin and never ran again. The glory years of Godolphin were back when Noseda then Albertrani were playing a pivotal role and those days are long gone. We did see big Celebrations on World Cup night but the tapeta form looks very suspect to me. The transfer of horses has rarely worked of late in Europe and it staggers me why the Sheikh persists with it. |
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Despite my earlier comments I agree with a lot of that, Authorized.
Frankie looked like he'd won the Derby in the last there at York....I do feel for him a bit, must be driving him nuts and it's certainly not great for racing when one of our main selling points can barely get on the track. |
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If they had any brains they'd supplement Saint Baudolino into the Derby, leave him with Fabre, let him run off the boat and stick Lanfranco up.
They won't do any of the above, naturally. |
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I'm no breeding guru but to mainly put O'brein's success down to the bloodstock he's given I doubt is right.
Unless he went as a public trainer it's probably something his detractors will use rightly or wrongly to question his training ability. I think there are some clues though that this isn't the case. He only had a slight dabble at the jumps game and arguably produced the former Hamdan owned Istabraq to be one of the greatest ever hurdlers. Whilst it's pretty obvious that he has received some impressive looking animals such as Camelot and George Washington that may well have been Group 1 animals with other trainers ,I don't think it's the case with some of the other horses he's managed to extract group 1 wins out of, despite their physic suggesting they are anything but top class. From a betting angle he's difficult to have to cope with due to lack of info,team tactics etc but as far as the Art of training a Racehorse goes I doubt there's anyone better. |
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to say godolphin ruined mandaean is unfair ,if anyone ruined it ,it was fabre with the punishing run at two .the horse was not taken to dubai and as mentioned it has not trained on ,the winner of the dante is sired by darley and if it goes on to epsom success it might be the start of better things breading wise ,overall the non use of coolmore stallions is probably good for the Thoroughbred and dont forget coolmore have a head big start time wise .No trainer can make a purse out of a sows ear .
AP fans allude to him having some form of mystical training ability but the truth is its a numbers game ,behind the scenes of a stud its a vast operation, training the horses is just a small part of it,would be interesting to see the selection process of yearlings and see the truth about just how many horses are produced to get a derby winner . |
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Outside of the bloodline debate.
Two years ago two handy Aussie sprinters were imported to the UK. Starspangledbanner went to O'Brien, Denman went to Saeed.... Starspangledbanner was only slightly better performed and Denman certainly had the upside/talent to be as good. One won a pair of G1's in good style, the other reportedly never came good... O'Brien has panels on the Dubai traffic cop.... |
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Some time ago (2007), 2 milers represented their stables in top class European mile races. Both had been transferred to the yards as part of private deals.
Both had the promise/talent to be as good as each other. One won 4 Group 1s (Queen Anne, Sussex, QE2 & Hong Kong Cup), the other won 1 (St James Palace Stakes). The champion miler was Ramonti, the runner up was Excellent Art. We could fly about all day with these comparisons. I acknowledge O'Brien is the far far better trainer, but am happy to look at the Godolphin issue in more depth. Not so long ago Sir Henry Cecil had 12 winners in the ENTIRE season. He had not suddenly become poor at the job of training thoroughbred horses, he just simply didnt have the backing of quality owners & more importantly their bloodstock...input from Juddemonte, voila Group 1s aplenty. |
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Three other factors to throw into the mix.
Bloodstock advisors: back in the pre-Richard Hills days, Sheikh Hamdan had better results than Sheikh Mohammed. And it was not just with home-breds that Sheikh Mohammed disappointed: his agents quickly gained a reputation for buying any poorly-bred juvenile with no scope who'd managed to scrape a pattern win. The Lammtarra factor: owing to his illness, Lammtarra had a rushed, high pressure preparation to get to the Derby. Wrongly taking this as the model for success may be why Godolphin now has a reputation for overtraining its horses. The Dubai Carnival. American trainers are said to have concluded you cannot run horses at a meeting that early and keep them on the go. Whether it is training the horses early or the heat and sun in what should be winter interfering with the horses' metabolism is unclear but not really the point. |
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The problem with spreading the young horses around is that the trainers know that if they are very good, the horse will be taken off them after their two-year-old year, so it is only natural that the trainers will squeeze the horses that much harder than they would if they knew that they would still have them as three-year-olds. Poor policy.
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this horse looked far from straightforward on its last run for fabre ,the horse was given a hard race and hung left and right ,perhaps something amiss ,but lets cut to the chase ,many horses that are sold to them are not exactly stallion material ,as mentioned before this horse was not in dubai nor was it trained by the polisman .fact are sometimes helpful or is this just another godolphin sledging exorcise ?
could start a fred about how one of the best 3yo was given a poor ride and subsequently suffered a fatal accident due being ridden by a very inexperienced jock ,would it be anything different. irish aiden is a wizard and godawefull are mince ......yawn...zz |
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turns out that even the great AP can overtrain one and it was great to hear him say today that he had overtrained "so you think" last year and they had changed things and recovered the horses turn of foot ,they probably rode him wrong as well last year and the horse did hint in the arc that a hold up ride was probably best ,good to hear the great man admit he got it wrong and he almost sounded human .HATS OFF to you sir .
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Agree with that, bnb, but did you also think the mea culpa was a touch overdone? Maybe it's the cynic in me, but it sounded too much like a plea for us all to belive that this horse is still the second coming when, in fact, I don't think I'd rate yesterday's win any higher than his second in the Champion, or a few of his other runs. We still have no idea what level Carlton's operating at and Farrh looked like he'd have taken the pair of them if things had panned out right for him. All this 'Bart was right' nonsense....crikey, Bart ****s ran the horse in the Melbourne Cup ffs....he's a lucky man that he didn't finish the thing off that day.
In conclusion, the horse hasn't improved, the trainer hasn't fooked up and I'm not having it!  |
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Why can we not say C u m m i n g s, I wonder?
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