the THE EPSOM OAKS

I am not sure what to make of Up and Im not sure that AOB's team does either

She has been running on the a/w, good and soft ground-and over various distances. In all her races she seems to be finishing well and these have been mostly group or decent races.

She is by Galileo out of a Spectrum mare so there are definitely grounds for thinking 12 furlongs would be within her compass.
After her run in the BC last year you might have expected her to step up in trip but she was actually dropped back in trip to 7f behind Homecoming Queen-look at the video she is plum last turning in and actually makes up around 7 lengths on HCQ in the last 2 furlongs.

So she has speed over 7f and a mile, form at group 1 level behind 2 guineas winners, has been running on in her races, goes on most ground and is bred to stay.

Why wouldnt you run her in the Oaks, or at least a trial? Unless of course you thought that youve got at least 2 better than her at home!!
And that is probably the real reason, who knows where she will run next.

@sewter lives again -- maybe the French Oaks over 10 furlongs?

http://www.prix-de-diane.com/prixDeDianeUK.html

or in French:
http://www.prix-de-diane.com/

anyone with an opinion on was? was very impressed with this very expensive filly first time up. if she does tomorrow win tomorrow 20s could look very big

@Tascro -- Was is currently forecast 2/1 for the Group 3 Blue Wind at Naas tomorrow.

So if that is accurate, she'd need to be put in quite short for the Oaks for the current 20/1 to look compelling.

Given Ballydoyle already has the two 3/1-ish 7/2 joint favourites, is that likely? Surely if she is that good, she'd be odds-on at Naas? (Of course, maybe she will be!)

Was's only previous run was last August. If she is unsound, I'd not want to back her ante-post.

Also, she has a bloody stupid name.

Also, she has a bloody stupid name.

Absolutely. If going to be a Classic winner they'd surely have named her IS

"She's good. She was very well and we had her very forward and, would you believe, one day, the horse that was making the running for her, the shoe came off and cut her over the knee. That's what delayed her, she had to get four or five stitches over her knee. But she's back perfect again."

a good enough reason not to be out early i think

She was very well and we had her very forward

Who's WE Tascro?

@Tascro -- is that what stopped her running after August last season or before now this season?

And whichever it is, what explains the other?

Aidan O'Brien's Twirl, like so many from the Ballydoyle Stable, is regally bred being a full sister to Irish 1000 Guineas winner Misty For Me.

Twirl finished second in the Park Express Stakes on her first start this season and is one of a powerful army of fillies O'Brien has in the Classic division this season.

Others include 1000 Guineas winner Homecoming Queen, Oaks favourite Maybe, Kissed and Wading.

Speaking at a Ballydoyle press day on Monday, O'Brien said: "Twirl in the Musidora Stakes, and if she came through the trial she could join Maybe and Kissed in the Investec Oaks.

"Kissed is a good filly but still a little inexperienced. She worked well on the grass this morning, as did Maybe, who is by Galileo so should stay the longer distance at Epsom.

"Maybe needed her race in the Guineas and she should be sharper for it. She was staying on at the end of the mile, so I would be optimistic that she would get the trip, and she is one who is not short of experience."



Clearly, Maybe has been trained for the Oaks, not the Guineas.

Seething.

Totally agree Sewter,
Does O'Brien know what to make of UP ?

He says:
"Kissed is a good filly but still a little inexperienced. She worked well on the grass this morning, as did Maybe, who is by Galileo so should stay the longer distance at Epsom.''

UP has the same sire Galileo as Maybe and from my eye UP
needs a trip.Unless he just knows Maybe is a better horse.
Something tells me not though...

The Fugue is going to be very hard to keep out of the frame imo.

I cant have AOB's pair tbh. Kissed looks real classy but it is debatable what she has beaten and I would like to have seen her race again given she won back in April. Maybe possibly has stamina doubts and it is quite possible Gosdens horse will improve past her from the Guineas due to the extra distance.

Vow & Colima have big chances as does Kalaini IF supplemented.

It won't stop The Fugue running well in, or winning, an Oaks, but that Musidora didn't look to be worth tuppence to me.

You are probably right HM. Some people have suggested as much already.

But at least she finished 4th in a Guineas aswell.

Do you think the Lingfield form is the strongest?

I'm quite confident that we have seen the Oaks winner today, 4th inn a classic won a major trial, trainer does not overface his horses, will be suited by further. W

the form of the muisidora mightnt be strong, but what about kissed, kalianni, vow, probably even worse tbh , but she did beat the chester oaks winner easily

I'm rather hoping we might see the Oaks winner today, sint - but not at York. Newbury may well throw something up too.  Can't have the Chester race (elis?!?).  The Fugue's effort today may have one or two looking at their Guineas fillies again.  Bolger? Channon? (and, yes, I do think Vow holds strong claims too).

Race is wide open, no?

Certainly is. 4/1 the field at the moment.

Come on elis, the Cheshire Oaks was only a week ago, ran on desperate ground. Can use thatas a form yardstick.

I think it was a good performance by The Fugue and she will go close in the Oaks. However it is sometimes easy to get carried away by the visual impression and it is important to remember that Twirl wasn't one of his three that AOB mentioned for the race.

no of course i dont take the chester race seriously as form guide, but looking forward to the naas race tonight.

On Kissed & Was at big prices but would rather be on The Fugue-very impressive.

On Kissed myself BIG TIME, and really hope she is special because like previous poster I was very impressed with The Fugue.

Princess Highway wins the Blue Wind for Dermot Weld. He says she heads next to RA for the Ribblesdale, a race he won with her dam.

For me, the fact he does not deem her good enough/ready enough YET, to contest a Group 1 next (the Oaks) says to me the form of Kissed Listed win on a line through Aaraas who finished 2nd tonight, is not good enough. As much as she was very impressive in April, 4/1 is too short imo.

Was, was a staying on 3rd and very weak in the betting.

Was not Was.

cant make heads/ tails with the form of last years 2 year olds and this seasons 3 year olds in ireland at all..all beating each other, homecoming queen didnt help matters.

I'd not read too much into Weld's target really, he's notoriously reluctant to overface his horses; witness the career of Famous Name for one; a nose second in the French Derby then spends 3/4 years mopping up bits and pieces G3s round Leopardstown.  Plus he's always been a staunch supporter of his home classics and Ascot then 3 weeks later Irish Oaks will probably fit the bill.

Totally agree that there is a surfeit of viable Oaks candidate this year though.

"I think the logical progression will be to go for the Ribblesdale now.

"This filly is a late-maturing type and I think waiting for Royal Ascot is the prudent way to go.

"She will learn from today and I think as the year progresses, she will definitely be a Group One filly." (Dermot Weld)

That explains how Weld feels about Princess Highway.

Last year's Blue Wind winner (Banimpire) won the Ribblesdale before being short-headed in the Irish Oaks so it's not form to dismiss lightly.

Kissed beat Aaraas 8 1/2 lengths walking away. Nothing that happened tonight detracts from her chances at Epsom.

took 25s on the fugue mid april.

*e/w

hippie , where did the 3rd in kissing race finish today please?

She finished 4th, elisjohn, getting 8 lengths closer to Princess Highway than she did to Kissed. Although both Aaraas and Cleofilia might well have preferred the better ground at Naas, I can't see how anyone can view last night's result as anything other than a boost to Kissed's form.

There is no doubt in my mind that yesterday's result confirms the Kissed form, especially as it was a similar distance between Aaraas and Cleofilia in both races. She obviously has a pedigree to die for.

For those on at fancy prices, fair play but whether she deserves to be her current price is another matter. Her preparation is a little strange but then with race dates all changed this year because of the Jubilee, this may be part of the reason.

On what they have achieved The Fugue is the rightful favourite imo

When Kissed ran at Navan, I remember Gary O'Brien describing her as 'narrow'. She does look fairly light.

So maybe the fact that O'Brien hasn't run her since April is very deliberate. It just might be the case that they worry she might not retain condition. A bit like a female Rewilding.

Just a guess.

oops , no form boost at newbury for kalianni  there

t/form radio now only 22 left in oaks, still over 100 still on here even after suspending for hours

Godolphin having a poor run of things at the moment. Need some winners.

Shirocco Star is being over looked here imo,always travels well,which is a big help at Epsom and will defo stay,price looks very big to me

this horse is the best backed horse on ere currently

Teets, just backed her. Took the 25's at 3.65. I think Morrison rates her more than the filly Coquet who just won the Oaks trial at Goodwood.

Sint

Me too - only 20s however with lads

Estrella did nothing to enhance the chances of Vow unfortunately

sint following in tt

tt got a killer record in the oaks tbf

yfdc

every dog has it's day trev

Any news on Kailani???

Today is 'D' for declaration day, especially if (like me) you've taken big prices about the unbeaten Dalkala and the unheralded Devotion. Quite interested in the latter, she skips the Guineas this weekend, ran a nice race in the Guineas trial and is very much bred for a trip.

14 left in after 6 day decs, see ante post market here

anyone heard plans of the coolmore horses, surely not going in with the 7

The ground will be much too fast for Kissed, she'll be saved for the Irish Oaks. Ground and track also unlikely to play to the strengths of Imperial Monarch. He could well wait for Irish Derby.

elbows, too fast, i aint joking it said theyre having good/soft for oaks day, see clerkwatch thread

Don't believe everything you see on the forum - remember Frankel isn't going to run again

forget what ballydoyle are running and just back the winner


THE FUGUE 3/1

bookies may as well start paying out now

Coquet @ 30 looks interesting to me. showed great attitude when winning her trial despite looking like she need the run. will come on for the run and will improve with the extra distance, very lively outsider

Has Kissed lost a leg or is it that she's not travelling? trading @ 12's today

reckon the oaks much better than the derby this year, few of them should actually have gone for the derby, could well have won it

Here are a couple of stick readings from epsom early last year c/w actual going descriptions ;

07-Jul-11 Good to Soft (Soft in places) Overall: 7.7
Home Straight: Far Side: 8.0Stands Side 8.3
30-Jun-11 Good to Firm Overall: 8.6
(Home Straight Far Side: 8.5
Stand Side: 8.8)
04-Jun-11 Derby Course: Good to Firm (Good in places)
Sprint Course: Good to Firm Derby: 8.3
Sprint: 8.5
03-Jun-11 Derby Course: Good
Sprint Course: Good (Good to Firm in places) Derby: 8.0
Sprint: 8.2
Home Straight Stands Side: 8.2
Far Side: 7.8


As of this morning we have the following Good, Good to Firm in Places(GoingStick: 8.4 on Wednesday at 06:30)

so we have ground reported as good to soft / soft in places which has a higher far side reading than the good / good to firm in places.

Work that one out !!!!

My best guess is they will keep on watering but we may get cloudy days between now and the off time of the oaks so the water they put on will not evapourate as quiclkly as when sunny , therefore the stick readings will probably go down and they will end up running on artificially produced dead ground..

Or as the hacks will doubtless describe it...

Beautiful ground, they are taking a print.. what a marvalous job they have done here...

aobballydoyle ‏@aobballydoyle
We will declare all 6 fillies to run in the Oaks on Friday but Kissed will only run if there is an ease in the ground.

thx   , couldnt theyve said this sooner though,

they could but never do

EPSOM SET TO WATER AGAIN

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Epsom clerk of the course Andrew Cooper could water the track to keep the current going description of good, good to firm in places.

The track has missed the forecast thunderstorms in the area and little rain is forecast after Wednesday.

Cooper told At The Races: "I think it would ride as good fast ground, which for summer Classics we should be racing on.

"The last two nights we've had suggestions of thunderstorms which have missed us completely. The last prospect of any rain for us seems to be Wednesday with the possibility of showers coming in from the west.

"They are not expected to be particularly heavy, but we could just catch something. Then it looks like it will cool down and stay dry. If we don't see any rain today I think we will have to do something to the track.

"We don't need a lot (of water) at this stage. It's just a question of keeping it where it is. That means on a daily basis putting on about three millimetres of water."

Not good draws for The Fugue or Vow imo, but they are classy so could overcome it.

List the draw ..

1    (7)     Betterbetterbetter (IRE)    Aidan O'Brien, Ireland    9st 0lb    Colm O'Donoghue
2    (4)     Colima (IRE)    Ralph Beckett    9st 0lb    Jim Crowley
3    (5)     Coquet    Hughie Morrison    9st 0lb    Robert Havlin
4    (12)     Devotion (IRE)    Aidan O'Brien, Ireland    9st 0lb    Richard Hughes
5    (13)     Kailani    Mahmood Al Zarooni    9st 0lb    Mickael Barzalona
6    (14)     Kissed (IRE)    Aidan O'Brien, Ireland    9st 0lb    Ryan Moore
7    (11)     Maybe (IRE)    Aidan O'Brien, Ireland    9st 0lb    Joseph O'Brien
8    (9)     Nayarra (IRE)    Mick Channon    9st 0lb    Martin Dwyer
9    (8)     Shirocco Star    Hughie Morrison    9st 0lb    Darryll Holland
10    (2)     The Fugue    John Gosden    9st 0lb    William Buick
11    (6)     Toptempo    Mark H. Tompkins    9st 0lb    Ted Durcan
12    (1)     Twirl (IRE)    Aidan O'Brien, Ireland    9st 0lb    Pat Smullen
13    (3)     Vow    William Haggas    9st 0lb    Johnny Murtagh
14    (10)     Was (IRE)    Aidan O'Brien, Ireland    9st 0lb    Seamie Heffernan

Disappointed that Frankie hasn't got a ride. Most important weekend for flat racing in terms of extra viewing and looks like he won't be involved in either Classic

There's even talk of him being at Haydock on Derby Day.

Surely Mo sticks him up on Monte ffs?  The boy wonder's good....but not that good. Yet.

Cannot see that HM, Barzalona rode him last 4 times so I am guessing now 'his' ride. Off topic but think its now time for Frankie to go freelance for a couple of years to possibly end his career.

Back on topic and though I've not backed Kissed, would it have been that difficult to let people know in the AP market? He was bad enough re Wading, but this has been 1st or 2nd favourite for 2 months now

agree ,for last few months, kissed been fav/2nd fav, and though we all knew, like kalianni theyd prefer slower conditions, not once has it been mentioned that kissed would only run on good/soft or worse. though i suppose  watering will be stepprd up now for the mafia

Agree Roobuck.

I think she may not run. She looks like she really enjoys a bit of cut.

Shirocco Star @20,25,28 and 36,@7+ to place,up to my neck now will add Vow on the day,good luck all

The Fugue 5 & 6/1
SS 25/1

added
Colima at 14 and 21/1 - too big.

speaking of frankie, would be great if he did go freelance and rode another classic winner for o'brien :D

quite a move on here and bookies last 30 mins on betterbeter, might be pricewise

ps funny that maybe drifted from around 4 to 4.9 as well

Also like Shirocco Star and av 25 or so , good attitude , pace to travel , will like ground and was a little green last time , just prefer her as value  to The Fugue .

Agree Paulo also like SS win and place. On at 28 down to 19 on here now. Alot to like about her last run and looks value in a pretty competitive race

I always considered MAYBE as more of a Guineas filly than an Oaks filly.  Her Guineas chances were undone by the soft ground which so clearly suited her stablemate Homecoming Queen, but she is sure to have come on for that run.  But will this daughter of a 5f sprinter stay a mile and a half?  On breeding you'd have think it's unlikely, but this has been the plan for some time and Aidan ought to know.  I prefer the claims of THE FUGUE, but it's a tricky race and not one I'm going to invest heavily in.

Kissed if it runs, if it does not, then it wouldn't have won anyway, so, saver on Kailani. cheers.

Backed Vow in this at 14/1 (posted on the wow vow thread), won't be laying any of it back and just going to hope for the best.

Will Maybe become only the third horse in the last 150 runnings of the english classics to win one,having won at Royal Ascot at 2?.

Best time of the year imo, all my bets are still live.

is kissed a definate runner now, or are they deciding just before the race  ?

I've had a decent bet on Kailani. On this year's form she tops my figures for this on her Pretty Polly romp, where I have her on the same figure Ouija Board put up in the same race before going on to bolt up that year. The trip looks a formality and as long as she comes out of that trial well I think she'll be hard to beat. I have her joint top rated with Maybe, but that is based on last year's form. I've no idea whether Maybe can return to that form but I wouldn't want to risk money on her to find out.

as with a lot of ballydoyle horses,they dont really seam to put there best foot forward in there first run as a 3yo,that has often been the case in the last few years,you will see a very different MAYBE today,but i have backed The Fugue antepost and i am very happy with my selection,good luck figgis,you have certainly made a good case for Kailani on your figures

Kissed out of the Oaks.

I'm having a little tickle on Was.Expensive purchase and way to fresh last time out.Really impressed with her maiden win and obviously has to step up on her latest run.I think she will.

seem*

Sooooooooooo close well done any winners

Well done Was backers, I would never have backed the winner, even though I was reasonably impressed with her maiden win. Have to say though I'm not sure how good the form is, they crawled early leading to a moderate final time, positioning and tactical speed played a big part and it will be interesting to see if the form holds up in future.

Close but no cigar , well done Try My Best and others. SS ran a cracker despite getting very worked up  before the race. Dazzler gave her every chance surprise, surprise......picked up the place money but not much consolation at the moment. Hard to beat Ballydoyle at the moment

well done TMB.

Figgis, same as last year then. Everyone thought Murtagh ''nicked it'' but it turns out the winner was pretty decent.

MAYBE has now been beaten by lesser fancied stablemates in two classics.  In the Guineas she was found out by the sticky ground and lack of peak fitness, today she was given a poor ride by her jockey (too far back in a race where you needed to be up with the pace).  Not sure she would have won anyway, and she may prove best at 10f.  I do think that THE FUGUE was a bit unlucky - she was unsuited by being held up off the modest pace and also met with some interference in running.  I'd fancy THE FUGUE to beat this lot next time, but well done to those who backed the winner at fancy prices.

Sintonian, yeah possibly Was will also turn out to be pretty decent, although Blue Bunting did turn the form around at the Curragh with the 2 who finished in front of her.

Jamesp, I think many current day jockeys appear to be very poor at judging pace. It seems they go out with a plan of how they intend to ride the race and don't have the nouse to adapt to how the race is being run. Of course certain pundits in the media will say they were just "unlucky", yet praise them to high heaven when it all falls in their lap.

Agree re Maybe James. I actually thought she ran pretty well given the barging match she had with Kailani. I think she will next head for the Group 1 which Misty For Me won after Epsom last year, before then having a crack at the Nassau stakes at Goodwood. I'd not give up on her just yet, althought I wont be backing her, just want her to win for the TTF comp!

Crazy race

no pace

carnage

run the race again 10 times and Was would win none.

I had £24 after her maiden win and threw much away on Colima.

I don't think this years Oaks fillies match up to Midday or Sariska - they look poor.

Winners rating 114? Not good enough ton win an Ebor!!

View of what happened.
The race exploded the myth that AOB runs pacemakers to ensure a fair pace for all. He runs pacemakers
to set a pace to help his runners. With no Kissed in the race the plan was to put 2 up front than put
the brakes and try and make it a crawl to best advantage Maybe. Nayara pulling his way to the front ensured they didn't go a crawl but it was still a slow pace.
Was - well positioned and well ridden showed a good attitude in front. Could well be a fortunate winner
      but difficult to say that with 100% confidence as he may have been doing just enough.
Shirroco Star - travelled well came to win his race but looked reluctant to go past. With a stronger rider
        may well have won.
The Fugue - well positioned until meeting interference.Looked unlucky here but 1 1/4m may be her ideal
        trip. Could well prove herself a lot better than these.
Vow - well placed and had every chance .Not good enough on the day
Maybe - another poor piece of pace judgement from the jockey. Horse didn't look great pre-race and may not
          have come to herself yet.
Unsatisfactory race for the second year running which left plenty of questions. I'd have to rate the form
of the race as pretty moderate and would be surprised if any of the front 3 in the derby weren't better than these at 1 1/2m.

the race worked out perfect for was , a 10 furlong horse on breeding imo,  funnily enough one of the owners said after the race, we quitely fancied her, but again i say 3 trainers complained about the lack of pace, gosden, haggas, morrison, so why not run your own pacemakers,