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Bet365 Gold Cup
Bet365 Gold Cup
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GoldCupWinner Joined: 16 Jun 11
Replies: 456 26 Apr 12 20:03 Sorry for novice question but does jockey booking mean he will carry 9 st 9lb or has his allowance already been taken into account? The allowance has not been taken off yet but after the race the formbook will show as 9st8lb carried, provided the jockey can do the weight |
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Thank you!
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No prob, good luck btw
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Thx again and you too. I'm trying to learn as much about racing as some of the shrewdies on here.
Another question about Knighton if anyone will answer. It says long handicap 9-13 so I assume that mean he will be allotted 10 stone and be running 1lb out the handicap but the jockey brings that down 5lb to 9st 9lb. It also says he is officially rated 132 and he's running here off 127 does that mean he's effectively 10lb well in? That's assuming a competent jockey. I personally think 132 is a high mark to assess him on since he is 12 and has never won off a mark that high but just wondering if that's how it works. |
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LBB - keep the faith
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No. Form Horse Age Wt Trainer Jockey OR NagMe
1 6U-3254 Tidal Bay (IRE) 16 11 11-12 P F Nicholls D A Jacob 154 2 U34-1FP Deep Purple 14 11 11-10 Evan Williams Paul Moloney 152 3 1PB-P1F West End Rocker (IRE) 14 10 11-7 A King W Hutchinson 149 4 45053B- Rare Bob (IRE) 14 10 11-3 v1 D T Hughes P J Brennan 145 5 31P43P Galaxy Rock (IRE) 7 8 11-2 b Jonjo O'Neill D C Costello 144 6 94U20P- Tullamore Dew (IRE) 14 10 11-0 p N J Gifford D F O'Regan 142 7 0P7113 Le Beau Bai (FR) 70 9 10-12 b R Lee J E Moore 140 8 11/U861- Dover's Hill 49 10 10-11 t Mrs Mary Hambro S Thomas 139 9 80/5432- Ouzbeck (FR) 35 10 10-10 Miss E C Lavelle D Elsworth 138 10 13P200- Swing Bill (FR) 14 11 10-10 p D Pipe T J Murphy 138 11 B-2110R Vic Venturi (IRE) 14 12 10-9 v1 D T Hughes J M Maguire 137 12 143P5F- Viking Blond (FR) 14 7 10-7 b N A Twiston-Davies William Twiston-Davies (7) 135 13 136251- Roalco De Farges (FR) 14 7 10-6 P J Hobbs R Johnson 134 14 11-121U Enter Paradise (IRE) 43 8 10-6 C J Mann D Crosse 134 15 U5/54P2- Major Malarkey (IRE) 42 9 10-5 N A Twiston-Davies S Twiston-Davies 133 16 2-3P478 Any Currency (IRE) 7 9 10-3 e M Keighley Aidan Coleman 131 17 24P222 Aldertune (IRE) 49 8 10-1 t1 P F Nicholls Nick Scholfield 129 18 148461 Knighton Combe 27 12 10-0 p Jamie Snowden Brendan Powell (5) 127 19 7-412PP Free World (IRE) 167 10 10-0 W Greatrex T Scudamore 123 20 413PF4- Ethiopia 11 9 10-0 b R H Buckler James Best (5) 118 |
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Reckon numbers 1,2 and 4 are the ones to be on TT.
Backed Rare Bob on here,and will look at the other 2 at the course. |
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Yeah you would ydc
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VIKING BLOND 7lb claim gives him massive chance
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swing bill at 25s for me. gets trip, likes ground, low weight.
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Trends for the past 10 runnings of Bet365 Gold Cup (http://tinyurl.com/dyww4pr), French bred horses do well:
Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 1-2-9 7yo: 1-6-22 8yo: 4-7-41 9yo: 1-3-38 10yo: 1-3-34 11yo: 2-6-19 12yo+: 0-1-8 Horses aged 6 to 8: 6-16-74 Horses aged 9+: 4-12-104 Younger horses have held the call in this, with 6 of 10 winners being aged 6 to 8. Of the 4 winners aged 9+, 3 had won a grade 2 or 3 chase previously and the other had won the Grade B Troytown Chase and was runner-up in the Irish Grand National on previous start. Breeding French Bred: 4-19-60 Irish bred: 4-5-82 British bred: 1-4-23 USA bred: 1-0-4 Other: 0-0-2 Over past 8 years French breds have a record of 4-17-48, which compares well to horses bred in all other countries, combined record of 4-5-87. French bred horses have filled 21 of 30 places since 2004 and they represented only 35.6% of the total runners. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-7 or more: 7-17-90 Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 3-11-81 7 of 10 winners carried 10-7 or more from approximately 52.6% of total runners. Top Weight: 07PF030P4P (0-2-10) Both horses allotted top weight to make the frame were ridden by 7lb claimers Official Ratings Horses rated 146 or higher: 2-6-33 Horses rated 132 to 145: 8-17-104 Horses rated 131 or lower: 0-5-34 8 of 10 winners were officially rated 132 to 145, though they have represented approximately 60.8% of the total runners. Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-4-34 Recent/Past Form 10 of 10 winners finished in first 6 on last completed chase start 8 of 10 winners had last chase start in a graded contest (2 exceptions ran in class 2 chase worth 30K+) 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days. 10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season 10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ 8 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ 8 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions finished 4th in previous year's race) 9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases 7 of 10 winners had run in a novice chase that season or previous season 3 of 10 winners were novice chasers 9 of 10 winners won a race worth 20K+ 7 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded race (2 of 3 exceptions had won a chase worth 40K+) Other Races Previous season's winner: 4659P (0-0-5) Highest placed finisher from last year to return: 465F93P3P (0-3-9) Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase winner (Galaxy Rock): 20P3 (0-2-4) Mobile Betting At paddypower.com Handicap Chase winner (Dover's Hill): P02 (0-1-3) London National winner (Deep Purple): 6 (0-0-1) 2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish National last time out, finishing 1U 2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out, both unseating 2 of 10 winners ran in JLT Specialty H'cap Chase, finishing 3P 2 of 3 novice winners ran in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase, finishing 35 2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in the Charlie Hall finishing 34 2 of 10 winners ran in previous Bet365 Gold Cup, finishing 44 7 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 JLT H'cap Chase, 1 4M NH Novice Chase, 1 Cross-Country, 1 Ryanair, 1 Arkle & 1 World Hurdle) 8 of 10 winners had their last start in a Cheltenham chase or in Irish/Scottish/Aintree Grand National (both exceptions ran in a hurdle) Trainers Philip Hobbs (2-5-13) trained the winner in 2006 and 2008 and has filled 4 of the 11 places in past 3 years. Paul Nicholls (1-8-25) saddled Ad Hoc to win this in 2001 & 2003. Irish trained runners (2-1-15) have won 2 of last 10 runnings from 8.8% of total runners. Price 7 of 10 winners were priced between 6/1 and 16/1 No strong trends on trends on the prices, though there have been a few upsets recently with winners at 20/1 and 25/1 in past 4 years. Favourites (0-6-12) have failed to win this in past 10 year, level stakes loss of 10.00. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: • French bred • Aged 6 to 8 (or placed in this race last year) • Carrying 10-7 to 11-5 • Officially rated 132 to 145 • Run in the past 50 days • Finished in first 6 on last completed chase start • Had last run at Cheltenham Festival, in a grand national or over hurdles • Ran in a race at 2012 Cheltenham Festival • Run at least 3 times this season • Won over 3M 1F+ • Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 20K+ • Run in no more than 9 handicap chases (won no more than 2) • Trained by Philip Hobbs or in Ireland |
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thanks racecaller
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It is not raining in Esher at the moment. Not a clue if the forecast will be right but have put up Viking Blond on my blog. The link is below and a really important factor IMO is the following:
Nigel's form of late has been fantastic. It is a shame he is hitting peak form as the season is coming to a close but that will be irrelevant if he wins this. In the last 10 days he has had 28 runners. 13 of them have finished in the top three and of those 13, 7 won. There is no questioning he is on fire at the moment. http://onetojump.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/bet-365-gold-cup-chase-ante-post.html Hope it is of some interest |
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It's a tricky race for sure, I was expecting it to cut up a bit more, but at least it keeps the big prices and b364+1 are offering 5 places.
My shortlist is: LBB (backed at 12/1) Roalco (backed at 14/1) Viking Blonde Rare Bob If it was heavy I would be confident in LBB, but my confidence is waining that it will be soft enough. I certainly wouldn't be backing him at the current prices. Roalco and Viking certainly meet a lot of the trends, young, french bred in the OR and weight bands. Hobbs has a good record in the race. As ICS highlighted, Viking Blond looks to have a good chance with that massive claim. I backed Rare Bob in the National as it met all of my trends, so I am tempted to back him again 'just in case'. However it doesn't seem such a good fit this time, on account of his weight and age. I'll be adding Viking Blonde, but I may wait until 10am tomorrow in case B366 have to match another firm offering 25/1 |
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Nice Blog Brit, looks like you have had quite a good season, as a fellow Son Of Flickerer id salute you
 Looking through some of the selections id say we have a similar view of the market and looking at a race(im on Tidal though )although you might have just persuaded me into a punt at 25s on Viking |
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Swing Bill 40/1
Dovers Hill 16/1 Le Beau Bai 12/1 Final Team goin to War - |
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Can't see the winner there^
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LBB (nap)- and I agree, BJG, Dovers Hill is worth a saver.
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Dont you just feel that he's at the top end of his handicap rating though Facts??
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thanks for having a look at the blog zilzal. It is the first time I've done this and thankfully a few head bobbers have gone my way! Am quite keen on Cornas tomorrow as I get the impression he is a bit of a sandown lover. but that isn't for this thread so I'll leave it there
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Bluddy hell we do think the same
last week i backed Merigo and Global Village!! Cornas has to be the bet at the price imoOther races Got to be with The Pier in the hcap hurdle and a Columbian/Poet rfc tommorrow provided they get the fractions right, they aint making a lot from the back on the flat course all the best, ill be reading the blog each week, do you do the flat?? |
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I cannot believe Aldertune is still available to back at 20-1. This will have been the target I'm sure of, given a couple of sighters at Sandown last two runs. Has had a nice break, stayed away from the festivals. Many of these are running as an after thought, WER, RB, LBB, VV, VB, and so on. Doesnt mind the what the ground is according to the form book. Schofield knows him well and can just see a big run. Will be interesting to see what Nicholls says tomorrow.
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Yeah I was on Cornas in the grand annual. slow ground will suit
I'm a NH man at heart but will probably keep blogging. With flat being relentless once it gets under way I'm thinking of sticking to the top level races and either sprints or long distance races (as close to jumps as flat gets!) Was at Cheltenham when The Pier ran. he must have a big chance. Although I'd be worried about Tour D'argent who looks an improver. Plus nice form with attaglance! cornas makes for huge appeal at 12s! |
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I agree 100% about ALDERTUNE and actually think Nicholls had him up his sleeve here had the trainers title gone to the wire...
MAJOR MALLARKEY is fresh and ran a cracker in the Midlands National on not dissimilar ground and SWING BILL looks a typical Pipe Saturday horse.... Had the race been earlier in the year I'd have gone LBB/WER but think both now too short! |
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Im only a festival and weekend punter nowdays, far too much racing to take in for a start, no 2yo's, no maidens, hardly any below class 3s and dont bet at hardly any Northern meetings except at the very top level. Sprints im very careful on straight courses nowdays and most bets would be in class 3 plus handicaps from 7-10f.
You gotta have a break with all the racing though and id say i spend more time looking at results and replays than summing up a race Good Luck!! |
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zilzal1
Convinced that LBB will run a huge race - and think he can so easily win this. Agree price is now too short. But more than happy with my 12/1 Yes, he's rated high now - but still think he's better than these. And I think the going will be soft enough to bring out the best in him.GL everyone. |
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Some interesting market moves..
Boyles priced up the day of race market and made LBB 8/1 jf with WER. Didn't last long, into 6/1 now. Rare Bob now best priced 16/1, missed the 20s there. Interesting, as he was weak in the market before the GN. Been tipped somewhere? VB prices vary from 14/1 to 25/1, may have to snap that up before it goes! |
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Cornas 16-1 with Laddies has had to be taken
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Can't really see how Le Beau Bai is badly handicapped, having been placed off 143 in a Welsh National and won by 21 lengths at Chepstow over 3 miles off 139. Last time he was third to Giles Cross and Neptune Collonges off 140 and is one of very few equipped to handle tomorrow's conditions and distance. Surely the ground will be soft and it takes a lot of getting at Sandown. Slight concern is going right handed but never noticed him jump left handed and has a good second over hurdles at Exeter (20 lengths clear of the third). Won a couple of reasonable chases over 3 miles to give hope he can keep up with these early and can't see anything coming home better than him.
A very solid horse when you consider all the negatives about most of the others all of whom a tenuous case can be made for. |
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For those who ran in and completed the Scottish National, isn't it a bit much to ask them to race another marathon trip only a week later? Does that happen on the regular in this race?
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2 winners in the last 10 years ran in the Scottish National prior. One of them won it!
I'm not sure if the races are normally just one week apart though. More shortening going on in the market. Roalco now top priced 9/1 and Rare Bob is only available at 14/1. Looks like I missed the price on RB! |
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There was a very small field when Hot Weld won the race, the Murphy one didnt last that long at Ayr last year before this race and was helped by the ones in front having a ding dong
Depends what kind of season they have had imo, a lot are kept away half the winter |
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Thx. I was just looking at Any Currency. Is better off at the weight with Major Malarkey over CD. Softer ground may help as he has loads of stamina. Just that he ran last week and not very well but he was off for 3 months before that.
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Cannot have LBB at all as I think this is too much of a speed track for him and the ground isn't going to be genuinely heavy enough to help him either. So many of the others are old, exposed, out of form and/or need good ground that it is much less competitive than it first looks.
As much as I like Deep Purple as a horse, his win over this C & D was in a slow run race and I cannot see him getting home on this ground with that weight. Tidal Bay is well in on old form but less so on this season's efforts. His traditional late dash could be quite effective on this track though. Major Malarkey is probably best of the exposed sorts but poor value. Has t be the novices for me, 3pts Roalco DF 2pts Viking Blond |
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Nicholls positive about Tidal Bay on the morning line if that's worth anything!
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So worth backing Aldertune then?
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Said Aldertune wouls struggle to stay in the ground. I'd agree with that looking at his form. I won't be backing Tidal either though haha.
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Bucketing down
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Going description clearly a load of cok all week as expected! Very tough goin
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