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PeteTheBloke
14 Apr 12 17:19
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 3,691 | Blogger: PeteTheBloke's blog
Can Camelot beat the wonderful little filly?

(Before you all start, that question is loaded with irony).
Pause Switch to Standard View **************** L'Arc de Triomphe...
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Report Navel-Gazer October 7, 2012 4:35 PM BST
I know Solemia didn't have the clearest of runs in the Vermeilles but there was NO real hard luck story behind Shareta.
I also thought she was there for Galikova's benefit, so she was very easy to overlook.

This result of this Arc is a combination of a few things...Orfevre throwing the race away (clearly the superstar that many believed) the ground (which means the form book goes out of the window, and finally...it all comes back to the cliche of an improving filly in the Autumn - just where do they find such improvement? Surprised

She had NO right to win that race on ANY form but she has!

I couldn't fancy her one jot but she was a far bigger winner for me than Orfevre - nevertheless, you have to be gutted for connections who I hope will bring this super colt back to Europe and win a big one or two next year...he's got nothing to fear on these shores, and I feel confident he'll prove to be a mid 130's horse in the future.

From a selfish angle for purely financial reasons, I'm very happy as I was in the red on Camelot & Great heavens, and I was stuck with them!

Orfevre really deserved to win that Sad
Report Akak October 7, 2012 4:44 PM BST
Orfevre certainly deserved to win. Its been a long ante-post journey, with the wrong result for many Orfevre fans on here. However the winner deserves praise for the way she fought back after seeing the monster swoop past her. Well done anyone who backed her. Who dares wins!!!CryCryCry
Report Navel-Gazer October 7, 2012 4:47 PM BST
I persevered for ages with Reliable Man in case we got this sort of ground, and after Solemia's managed to win it, I defy anyone to tell me he had no chance!

He had very little to make up on Danedream & Nathaniel on the best of his form, and with the ground in his favour, I think it was bananas of ADRD to withdraw him!
Report RozelKid October 7, 2012 5:09 PM BST
well i cant blame soumillion, he did what he could from the draw.

im not 100% sure if the best horse won , orfevre has had to cover far more ground that the winner, plus i actually think that orfevre idled slightly as she crossed the field to get the rail.

i believe there is something isnt right with orfevre has he was caught in the last few yards, it could be him getting tired ..but the way soumillion was riding him looked like he expected more from the japanese raider.

it will be interesting to hear soumillion comments , but it looked like hes flashed his tail as he was crossing the 100 metre mark, and again he looks like hes lost his action right near the end.

The horse has shown be a real headbanger before when losing a race in japan when he just stopped in a middle of a race before deciding to race again.

but saying that, he could have just reached his top speed at that stage, just seemed to be jumping on the spot as passing the post.

either way ...im fcukin sick!
Report RozelKid October 7, 2012 5:16 PM BST
thinking again, i think soumillion might think (after watching the race) that he could have just kept the horse straight ...rather than spending that energy crossing the field to get the rail.

something is def wrong with the horse as soon as he has brought him across the field.
Report Sandown October 7, 2012 5:27 PM BST
I've had a chance to put the clock on Orfevre now.His last 2f splits were 11.73 and 13.2. The first thing to say is that 11.73 is amazing in that ground at the end of the race. Too fast in fact because he blew up in the last furlong. We know that the horse stays 15f, so either he wasn't quite 100% fit (the trainer said beforehand that he hoped he would be 95%)or the jockey asked for too much too soon. He would have held on if he had a more even finish. The hanging must have been as a result of emptying.Another one that got away from the Japanese after Deep Impact, the best horse they have ever had.
Report Navel-Gazer October 7, 2012 5:45 PM BST
I posted yesterday;

"If I had the money in my account, I'd be laying the tits off Yellow & Green (20) & Solemia (70) against the sizeable greens next to their names in my AP market - they're far too short"

Laugh It's a good job I'm a pauper and Betfair don't link the AP market with the day of the race market, as I suggested should be the case Laugh

Looks like you guys have found another Money Tree! Wink
Report bazzar October 7, 2012 6:11 PM BST
This filly is very good, look forward to seeing her build on this, no flook.
Report Navel-Gazer October 7, 2012 6:17 PM BST
Bazzar - I don't think she's anywhere near as good as Danedream but that improvement has come from nowhere, so who knows?

I remember Trempolino looking exposed as not up to Arc class, and look how he won - then followed up with a superb effort in the Breeders' Cup.

Solemia's beaten the rest quite easily, and despite the ground, there was no fluke about her win (however unfortunate for Orfevre) so maybe there's a feeling of disappointment amongst many of us in not giving her true credit.
Report Navel-Gazer October 7, 2012 6:33 PM BST
Two fantastic races from the 1987 Breeders' Cup...enjoy Wink

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSTeIzpbRQY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk8G8AR7TaM
Report Platini October 7, 2012 7:11 PM BST
I've watched the race several times now and it's more painful each time I see it Sad
Orfevre without question the best horse in the race. He cruised past Solemia like she was standing still and went clear, but couldn't maintain it to the line. Soumillon went too early, esp in that ground. It's clear as day to me. We've seen many many times what happens if the jockey goes too soon. Remember the only time Frankel has looked in trouble was when the jockey went too soon.
Report MrDinos October 7, 2012 7:46 PM BST
Totally agree with that Platini, it all went a little pear shaped after he hit front. He was going straight and true when he was next to the others horses but once he went clear he headed straight for the rail and Soumy really did struggle to keep him going forward. I think the burst of speed might have caught Soumy out a bit on the ground, it will be very interesting to hear what he says.

Nakayama Festa and now Orfevre, it's hard to take going so close again. Cry

Yellow and Green ran a solid race and nearly made the frame, I cannot argue with the way Thierry Thulliez rode the race and she had a nice passage up the rail. She is one to look forward to next year and I'm confident she will win G1 races.
Report Navel-Gazer October 7, 2012 8:39 PM BST
Has anyone got any suggestions (other than what I posted earlier) as to how Solemia has ran the race she has?

There is ONE single piece of form when she beat Shareta last May but I remember that race well, and the runner-up didn't get the best of rides, had trouble in running and was desperately unlucky - absolutely NOTHING to suggest Solemia was capable of what she produced today!

Bazzar may well be right about her being a really decent filly (though I won't be convinced until I see a reproduction of it) as I have seen such dramatic improvement many times before in top-class racing - this just about tops the lot for me!
Report tobermory October 7, 2012 9:16 PM BST

Oct 7, 2012 -- 10:17AM, kincsem wrote:


FRA / Long (FRA) 7th Oct / 15:252400m Grp1 Solemia    Back    22599765694 07-Oct-12 01:54 C     75    112.68 75    8,338.32    2400m Grp1 Solemia    Back    22598756804 07-Oct-12 00:32 C     75    70.00 75    5,180.00I woke at 16:05 and missed the race.


Brilliant Kincsem Grin Actually looked up the horse just because of your post last night, was tempted as you made a good case

Report MrDinos October 7, 2012 9:22 PM BST
Navel,

Some of Laffon-Parias's horses were running very well at Longchamp this weekend, maybe it's a combination of the stable being bang in-form, Solemia loving the ground and a brilliant ride from Olivier Peslier.

It's funny how form works out Solemia (3rd) and Molly Malone (2nd) both got beat by Allied Powers in May at Longchamp (G3). Solemia wins the Arc and Molly Malone wins the Cadran today. You couldn't make it up. What has Allied Powers done... absolutely nothing!

Haya Landa in 4th was a big surprise as well!
Report Navel-Gazer October 7, 2012 9:28 PM BST
Mr.D - I'm not even comparing Solemia's run with Orfevre...I'm astonished she's done what she has to the rest of the field!

Haya Landa is yet another for the Arc scrap-book of no-hopers being bang on the premises...this game baffles me sometimes Crazy

That's why I'd never be too dismissive of what anyone fancies for the race - Marienbard beat far superior colts in Sulamani & High Chaparral with Falbrav way back, and that was on decent ground! Shocked
Report MrDinos October 7, 2012 9:35 PM BST
Them pair couldn't beat Allied Powers and they both win a Group 1 today. What has Michael Bell been doing with this horse!!! Laugh

Horse racing can make us all look pretty stupid on occasions, maybe the scatter-gun approach is worth a try! Wink
Report Navel-Gazer October 7, 2012 9:46 PM BST
I don't mean to boast (and it'll probably annoy Bazzar) but the scatter-gun has come up trumps with this 'rag' that I never gave a second thought to! Wink
She was a far better winner for me than Orfevre but the substantial monetary difference eases the pain for the Jáp monster - he really deserved it! Sad

PS - The Giant Bolster traded around 1/3 I/R in the Gold Cup and that was another I gave no chance to...sorry Bazzar, but scatter-guns DO work Laugh

I have to be honest...I fcuked my AP book up with Camelot & Great Heavens (for different reasons) though I had the field running for me -
I was -£400 on the Gosden filly and that's not what I'd call a proper book (that I usually get) despite not fancying either of them.
Report MrDinos October 7, 2012 10:05 PM BST
I think I will keep it simple Navel, one or two runners for me. It would do my brain in using the Scatter-Gun and trading but well done with the win.

The commentator made me laugh, when the monster hit the front he said "Orfevre for Japan he's going to do it, Orfevre stormed to the lead"! He was slightly premature but I wish he was right.

As I've said before everything conspired against him in the race but he still ran an absolute stormer, I really want to know what Soumy thinks about the race! Nothing has been reported yet on the Racing websites from what I can see, which is a shame.
Report RozelKid October 7, 2012 10:51 PM BST
ive just watched the race another 10 times, and im certain that the japanese will be sick, im in no doubt that the Ofevre is either a bloody rogue and idled as soon as he got the rail, or he has a problem with his right front leg , im leaning towards the latter.

If you watch the race carefully  its plain to see that he has issues, this is unbelievable!

you have to watch it several times as soon as he hit the rail he changes his lead leg,  spend looking at this link as its better quality
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZO0q6eYZ2M

im confident its got nothing to do with the horse getting tired, absolutley nothing to why its lost the race.

Orfevre has changed  his legs on 3 occasions from 120 metres out, omg, this is sick.

watch the video several times, all from when he just passes the 2 leaders and heads to the rail, something def wrong with its right lead leg.

1st change of legs 2.34s, this is where he starts coming back to the eventual winner, but when his stride brings him back onto his right leg leg , it jolts and misses another stride to trying and lead of its left (hence why it drifts inwards).

they show in this video at 3.24 of how its hanging, that because it keeps changing its legs, he has even done it on the line, watch as he just passes the line, the horse has a problem with its right front leg and awkwarding misses a stride to change legs again and soumillion looks down at its leg.

I'm not talking down how good the winner is, but we have without dobt seen the best horse lose the race , becasue of either being a rogue, or it having that problem ive detailed.

it could be that the horse is a monkey as soon as he eyeballs another horse, or is close to a crowd.

I'll be surprised if the trainer or jockey dont come out in teh next 24hrs and confirm one of the points which i posted here.
Report Navel-Gazer October 7, 2012 10:57 PM BST
RK - I questioned his temperament after that race when he just dropped himself out (before rallying in style to be second) but nobody elaborated on that...there was always a slight doubt in my mind, and you could well be right.

Nevertheless, I think he's a fantastic colt.
Report RozelKid October 7, 2012 11:30 PM BST
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRh2DaAei5k   thats the vid of him dropping out

i agree navel, probably the best horse to have lost an Arc

i think hes a superstar, and i just hope he turns up in Dubai and sets the record straight, maybe dirt will be better for him, his action on turf could be a problem when it comes to the highest class races.
Report propunter1 October 7, 2012 11:57 PM BST
Gutted like most of other punters...
In the race when he dropped out, apparently he cocked his jaw and tried to run out (according to the official form line in the racing post).

Thanks RK for your observation and after watching the race few more times I think you are right about his right leg.

I put in a lay bet for the in-running market at 1.21 but only to get my losses for today's market. Apparently 1.01 was gobbled up, pity I didn't placed more in-running bets for much lower prices.
Report kincsem October 7, 2012 11:58 PM BST
I’m sure I’ll get pilloried as an aftertiming **** for this.  I backed the winner and prepared this now (after the race) to show my thinking as I made my selection.

I recorded the draw positions for all the finishers in the last 21 years (1991 to 2011) and know there is a big draw advantage on faster ground.  For the 12 fastest times in those 21 years the highest draw for the winner was stall 7 (1x1; 3x2; 1x3; 1x4; 2x5; 3x6; 1x7.)  Remember this for next year’s race if the ground is good or faster.

And I read somewhere (French trainer?) that the soil at Longchamp is clay.  My garden is clay.  When wet it gets very sticky and heavy and clings to boots; when dry it gets very hard and cracks.


Aventino:  In as a pacemaker.  No form.

Bayrir:  Supplemented.  No runs on soft or easier.  Only one run at 12f (and beaten.)

Camelot: Won 5 runner Irish Derby on soft/heavy but did not like ground.  Then had a hard race in the St Leger.  And hasn’t yet raced against older horses.

Ernest Hemingway: Only two runs ever, and last run last of seven.  Must be a pacemaker for Camelot.

Great Heavens:  Good form on soft and over 12f but only against fillies.  Her full brother Nathaniel not suited by very soft imo.  Good draw in 7.

Haya Landa:  Drawn 1.  In 16 of last 21 runnings stall 1 has finished in first 6.   Form on soft and heavy.   Some form in G1 and G2.

Kesampour: Form on soft.  Form  tailing off (?) as he steps from 10f to 11f to 12f.

Masterstroke: Draw 17 of 18 is a big negative.  Only Suave Dancer stall 12 of 14 in 1991, Subotica 14 of 18 in 1992, Sakhee 15 of 17 in 2001, Dalakhani 14 of 13 in 2003 have won from wide.  His form is good but little form on soft and softer.  Horses who do not run on very soft are probably scratched when soft/heavy.

Meandre: Form is ok but declining imo.  Recent form in small field races that might not be too competitive.  Beat 3 fillies in a 4 runner race at St Cloud, two of them fast ground fillies.

Mikhail Glinka:  Group 3 horse at best.

Orfevre: Draw 18 of 18 is a big negative.  Form very good but most of it on firm.  His win on soft in the Japanese Derby was 12f in 150 secs which can not be soft ground.  His Prix Foy was a non-race, he beat noting.

Robin Hood:  A pacemaker.

Saonois: In the Prix Greffulhe he was only 4th of 6.  He reversed that form with Kesampour in the next two races on good/soft.  A pacey horse that quickens but migh not like soft.

Sea Moon:  He has form over 12f and might handle soft.  A possible.  But drawn 16 of 18 lessens his chance greatly.

Shareta: Twice led inside final 2f on very soft and finished 3rd.  The ground will not suit.  Draw 11 not a help.

Solemia: Drawn 6 same as 2005, 2007, 2009 winners.  She has six runs on soft or very soft which indicates the trainer knows it suits her.  Her last ten races 2x11f; 6x12f; 2x13f so 12f should be ideal.  Her dosage index (with high stamina points) is 0.79 on pedigreequery.com which also indicates abundant stamina.

St Nicholas Abbey: Other than his debut he has tried soft ground twice, 2nd in a 10f G3, and 3rd in a 10f listed race.  Even good/soft finds him out.

Yellow And Green:  All her runs are on good/soft.  Only five runs (none as 2yo).  Beaten by Solemia in her last race (3rd and 4th).  She could feature with the weight allowance but surely her price should be higher than Solemia, not lower.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 8, 2012 12:14 AM BST
im sorry KincsemLove
Report kincsem October 8, 2012 12:16 AM BST
No problem.  I like aftertiming. Love
Report bazzar October 8, 2012 8:21 AM BST
Someone remarked within earshot of SOUMILLON's girlfriend that,
SOUMILLON had come too soon and she was heard to say, "This is a failing of CHRISTOPHE"!!!!
Report Akak October 8, 2012 8:44 AM BST
Soumillion considers Orfevre the best horse he has ever ridden.
Report Sandown October 8, 2012 10:03 AM BST
Nine tenths of form assessment is based on what HAS happened and only one tenth on what MIGHT happen. Therein lies our difficulty in this game. Soumillon is quoted in The Times as being overconfident. "It came too easy. Once we hit the front, nobody could imagine we would be caught. We were beaten by over-confidence (his presumably)but I hope he takes on Frankel at Ascot now." That would be some race!
Report Sandown October 8, 2012 10:09 AM BST
It's worth noting that ALL Orfevre's best form is on FIRM and even his so-called "soft" ground win was on ground timed as "good." It takes a very top-class horse to put up a performance like he did yesterday on such vastly different ground.He is exceptional.
Report sageform October 8, 2012 10:49 AM BST
I have not read many of the posts on here as just back from a holiday but the Arc demonstrated what many of us have said before. The 3yo colts this year are really moderate. The fillies are better but still inferior to the older ones. The going on the day may have shuffled the pack and confused some form lines, but I won't be backing any of this years 3yo middle distance crop against their elders or perhaps their juniors next season.
Report turnip turns October 8, 2012 11:04 AM BST
SOLEMIA VERY UNLUCKY

I've mentioned before that ALLIED POWERS (38) is tough to beat in the first week of June or earlier. Toss out his seasonal debuts and his form figures over 11f plus on turf in this period shows seven wins from nine tries. He scored his latest win when scrambling home in a sprint finish for the Prix d'Hedouville. But he looked awfully lucky to beat SOLEMIA (36).

Solemia had earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me when hosing up over the course and distance on her previous outing. This time around she was crusiing throughout the contest. But it became apparent rounding the home turn that she was totally boxed in with nowhere to go.

Olivier Peslier got increasingly desperate to find racing room, switching Solemia sharply towards the rail with only a furlong left. She began to surge forward but to be snatched up brutally as the gap closed on her, losing loads of momentum and her chance of winning.

I have no doubt that Solemia would have won this race impressively if only she'd been able to get clear. But it's worth mentioning that this is not the first time she's had trouble finding a run. My feeling is she'd be better suited by the stronger early pace and longer homestraights to be found in Britain and Ireland. Failing that she surely needs to be equipped with a pacemaker in future to ensure she's not asked to gain ground into a wild sprint finish as she was here.

Solemia may well be the best middle distance filly in Europe. The Yorkshire Oaks would surely be a slam dunk for her thanks to the lengthy homestraight at York. I can't see how she'd have trouble finding a run there.

Nick Mordin back in MayMischief
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 8, 2012 1:57 PM BST
I agree with sandowns last post. japanes horse looks exceptional, even in defeat.
Report Figgis October 8, 2012 4:06 PM BST
He showed he could handle different types of ground, but just looks like typical solid Gp 1 form to me, not exceptional.
Report Foetus October 8, 2012 4:59 PM BST
Figgis - as you're aware, it's very difficult to get a handle on international form as the many variables (obviously travelling & acclimatisation) don't suit many performers whilst some others (like Snow Fairy) thrive, so collateral form-lines have to be treated with caution.

However, Orfevre has just smacked of 'X-factor' for so long and the race he ran yesterday has confirmed (in my view) his brilliance and I'd be very confident there's only Frankel that'd be his superior.

I really hope we get to see more of him in Europe because I think he's capable of sweeping up all the big races next year, as it's my belief he's an exceptional colt, and far superior to a real solid group one middle-distance racer like So You Think.

Again...it's just an opinion but he's impressed me even more than Deep Impact and I hope he'll get the opportunity to prove me right.
Report BJG October 8, 2012 5:36 PM BST
Soumillon: "Orfevre is the best horse I've ridden in my life, next to nothing. I hope to run against Frankel."



Cry
Report Sandown October 8, 2012 5:54 PM BST
Figgis. The horse is exceptional to perform so well on extremes of going, nohing to do with the time of the race.
Report Foetus October 8, 2012 5:55 PM BST
He won't be beating Frankel but he's definitely the best challenger out there.

Has anyone had a check on Soumillon's resume?
He doesn't talk through his arse.

Zarkava for starters!
Report Figgis October 8, 2012 6:07 PM BST
Sandown, obviously many horses don't perform as well on extremes of going, but I wouldn't go as far as to call the ones that do exceptional. The previous 2 Arc winners, Danedream and Workforce, both acted well on firm and soft.
Report PeteTheBloke October 8, 2012 6:23 PM BST
Anyone want to bet Orfevre for the Champion? I'll negotiate a price with you and go and put it up now.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 8, 2012 6:46 PM BST
the wy he travelled up the straight to the front was awesome.

just like dancing brave except he got there way too soon.

soumi sitting there twiddling his thumbs at the back to passing the entire field in a matter of stides.....amazing!
Report MrDinos October 8, 2012 7:12 PM BST
It was a monster performance from Orfevre, he had to travel the furthest out of any horse in the race as well. The winner took the shortest route and this helped her get back at him near the finish IMO.

He is one of the best I've seen, for Soumy to say he is better than Zarkava is the highest praise. She was a wonder filly, scintillating turn of foot on all types of ground, just like the monster!!!

I still can't believe he got beat.
Report A_T October 8, 2012 7:21 PM BST
Performances on such going can be deceptive - and he did get beat. I doubt Soumillon would be saying things like that if he hadn't been sacked by the Aga Khan.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 8, 2012 7:37 PM BST
dont think the performance can be crabbed esp as hes better on good ground!Crazy

as mentioned he was wide all the way around and glided thru the ground passing the field effortlessly.

id be interested to see how he'd do in the champion. cant see him beating the great frankel but the race would be better for him being in it.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 8, 2012 7:37 PM BST
dont think the performance can be crabbed esp as hes better on good ground!Crazy

as mentioned he was wide all the way around and glided thru the ground passing the field effortlessly.

id be interested to see how he'd do in the champion. cant see him beating the great frankel but the race would be better for him being in it.
Report MrDinos October 8, 2012 7:54 PM BST
The very best horses can quicken on any type of ground and that's why the ground conditions never worried me. There was nothing deceptive about his performance, he got beat by the draw and a slight jockey error IMO.

I would be very surprised if he turns up for the Champion Stakes after such a tough energy sapping race. Maybe Frankel should rock up at the Japan Cup instead. Laugh
Report roobuck October 8, 2012 7:58 PM BST
Now that is a good call Mr D
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 8, 2012 8:03 PM BST
if he didnt drift he'd have won.
Report MrDinos October 8, 2012 8:08 PM BST
I know there is no chance of it happening but it would be the ultimate test for Frankel and a great spectacle with all those wonderful Japanese racing fans. Wink
Report Foetus October 9, 2012 1:43 AM BST
Having watched the race many times over, and digested the result, I have to give a bit more credit to a really gutsy filly in Solemia who (despite everyone dismissing her win due to the ground) has beaten the rest pointless!

Nothing in the race was finishing to any effect and even when Orfevre was supposedly weakening, the rest of the field were making no ground on him and he maintained the same margin over them after he kicked clear - she has to be applauded for that effort.

You just can't help but be really taken by the **** star as he was well in rear (nothing else amongst them got in the slightest blow) travelled longer than the rest, 'won' the race in super-smooth fashion before being reeled back by an apparent rag with no right on any form to win!

I'd still be very confident who the best horse is from that race but it maybe unwise to deem this result as a fluke - Solemia was very good on the day.
I really don't think Soumillon deserves any unfair flak for this, as it's easy with hindsight and it should be remembered that he hit the front inside the 300 marker, not 3f out!

I'm no jockey apologist but there does seem to be a lot of pocket-talking when a 'hot-pot' is expected to win and things don't pan out as they're supposed to - Camelot & Sea Moon in the last two renewals of the St.Leger were for me, both beaten by better horses on the day, and their pilots were unfairly slated!

I'm not for one minute suggesting that Masked Marvel is a better colt than Sea Moon but I have no doubt who was better equipped for the particular demands of that race last year, much in the same way with Encke last month.

Finally, has anyone heard news as to whether Orfevre will be kept in training?
I really want to see more of this colt and it'd be fully deserved if the Jáps could finally bag an Arc - they certainly deserve one as that's now four very narrow defeats in just over a decade;

El Condor Pasa (reeled in very late and beaten narrowly by one of the best colts I've seen over the last 30+ years in Montjeu...the pair well clear)
Deep Impact (plenty of relatively lame excuses but thought to be a certainty!)
Nakayama Festa (nailed late by a very decent Derby winner in Workforce...the pair well clear)
Orfevre (probably the unluckiest of them all to encounter a filly on PCP for the day, like Buster Douglas against Mike Tyson. Again...the pair well clear)

They can't be begrudged a victory and I hope it's Orfevre we see there next year on better ground - I think he's that good, I'd make him at most an 11/4 shot with a run, one year in advance!
Report Foetus October 9, 2012 1:44 AM BST
*** = JÁP Grin Fcukin' pathetic innit? Shocked
Report Foetus October 9, 2012 1:46 AM BST
PS - imagine for one moment if the winner was withdrawn...nobody would have batted an eyelid and we'd be looking at a six length Arc demolition!
It's a funny old game Sad
Report EastLower Gooner October 9, 2012 9:41 AM BST
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AXgGuInYOY&sns=tw

LOOOOOOOOL
Report Sankara October 9, 2012 11:55 AM BST
There were slight doubt over Orfevre's temperament and stamina over a testing 12 furlongs before the race, and in at least one of those areas, and probably both, they proved well-founded. It's all there in the formbook.
Report HKAccie October 9, 2012 1:54 PM BST
Sankara - then the rest of the field has massive stamina doubts???
Report sintonian October 9, 2012 3:01 PM BST
Stamina did not get Orfevre beaten. Not in the slightest was it stamina. Even in the ground. The draw,ground, and quickening before 3furlongs home cause him to hand in the final 50yrds. He's a very good horse.
Report sintonian October 9, 2012 3:01 PM BST
*hang
Report EastLower Gooner October 10, 2012 8:40 AM BST
Shouldn't underestimate the physical demands on a horse to make the saw of race winning sweeping move that Orfevre made in the home straight especially on that ground. He basicallly picked up and accelerated past the majority of the field at a time when the pace was already lifting significantly. It was an incredible manoeuvre. We've seen him do this Japan but that was over longer trips, on faster ground and against below Arc standard competition. That effort on Sunday was stunning and not surprising he didn't have the legs to fend off a re rallying Solemia.
Report RozelKid October 10, 2012 1:35 PM BST
wasnt stamina, the horse sometimes idles, hes a bit crazy ..thats all.

soumillion has thrown teh kitchen sink at him ..and in my opinion his right front leg was either hurting, or he shucked the toys out the pram.

Its obvious ...as per my previous post.
Report RozelKid October 10, 2012 1:36 PM BST
chucked ..rather than shucked
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 1:52 PM BST
Banging my drum in the hopes that someone who can do something about, will do,
he had the horse about 12 lengths off the lead until the turn for home, IF he had the horse just four lengths nearer the lead and then gone for home, does ANYONE believe that he would have been beaten?
I have pointed out many times that I believe it is cruel to hold a horse so far off the lead and to EXPECT the horse to get the jockey out of trouble and cause praise as to what a great race the jockey has ridden when the tactic succeeds.
R. MOORE, R.HUGHES and J SPENSER are regular miscreants, PRESVIS would have won at least another 4 group ones, SPENSER some people accept that it is his way of riding, which suggests that flexibility is not his strong point in fact anything where the brain comes into use is not evident.
Report RozelKid October 10, 2012 2:12 PM BST
changing the subject, there is a horse running at worcestor tomorrow in the 3.30 called Monkhair.  Owned by Group 1 racing Ltd.

Might be worth following the owners within the next few days, and weeks after, they have limited runners so there could be some value with staking accordingly
Report roobuck October 10, 2012 2:14 PM BST
So bazz, this is a genuine point about your post. These are my thoughts, please don't just treat them to being necessarily just contrary to you.

Anyway in an ideal world I'm sure he would have like to have been closer. The problem on this occassion was his draw. To have got a pitch closer to the pace and not been trapped incredibly wide would have required using a lot of petrol too early. We'll never know for sure, but I suggest its possible this would have had a worse effect in the final furlong. He wasn't helped by his pacemaker either who might not as well have run for all the use he was.

With regards Hughes and Spencer they have gained a reputation for being very good on hold up horses and I guess they then get booked for more than their fair share of this type of ride. Hughes I would suggest is damn good as well off the front and Spencer can do it as well.

Some horses are simply better being held up to use their acceleration, you may not believe that. Presvis would be a good example of that but that meant he was a hostage to fortune a number of times.

A horse that is running on Saturday is like that as well.

However I agree that Moore has developed an unhealthy habit of anchoring his at the back unnecessarily
Report sintonian October 10, 2012 2:31 PM BST
He had the worst draw of all the runners Bazz. You probably expect too much from jockeys sometimes.
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 2:38 PM BST
When a horse comes out of a stall it is PRESUMED that the start has been EQUAL, but a lot of jockeys take a deliberate tug hence they are further back and intentionally so, bad thinking why add to your mounts discrepancies by lingering?
Totally stupid way of thinking, EVERY horse is SUPPOSED to be ridden to gain it's best position, but that is written in the rules , so tell me the rules have been adhered to.
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 2:42 PM BST
The morning line, CATTEMORE said that MOORE had ridden a strange race on SEA MOON in the KING GEORGE, do they not see what is happening in a race? Moore does it regularly, these people get paid huge sums and can't spot what's happening, disgusting.
Report sintonian October 10, 2012 2:42 PM BST
It is not as simple as that Bazz. If each jockey rode to get their best position from coffin box draws, then they would find themselves in trouble with the stewards for dangerous riding.

Yes, when they all break from the stalls they are on level pegging, but then when a bend is fast approaching, the affect of a wide draw is there for all to see.
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 2:43 PM BST
Should have read Cattermole, obviously.
Report sintonian October 10, 2012 2:43 PM BST
Im talking specifically about the Arc, btw. 18 runners with at least 14 of them trying to win.
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 2:45 PM BST
As I posted before the race if he can't find a way, then he is in the WRONG job.
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 2:52 PM BST
He won on DALAKHANI from a similar position, can't remember how he rode but I am sure that someone can point me to a re-play of the race and I would be very grateful for that.
Report roobuck October 10, 2012 2:58 PM BST
Held up, headway well over 3f out, 6th straight, led 1f out, ridden out

Above from RP website. Sounds very similar to the ride he gave Orfevre. No link to race, perhaps search YouTube
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 3:06 PM BST
6TH home straight I think ORFEVRE was 15th home straight took it up at the 300 metre mark and if I'm wrong I don't mind being corrected.
Report roobuck October 10, 2012 3:08 PM BST
Actually spookily like the ride he gave Orfevre having just watched it. Just that Dalakhani finished his race and kept straight - similar distance back to the third.

5 fewer runners and it was his pacemaker that set the pace
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 3:21 PM BST
Four fewer runners, you did this the other day with the CES 35 runners you said just the one fewer in fact, why don't you post the address then I can view, please?
Report roobuck October 10, 2012 3:28 PM BST
18-13 = 5

I thought it was 35 runners for Ces, someone on here said its 34. Think you are splitting hairs tbh
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 3:37 PM BST
I apologise there were only 13 runners got fooled by DALAKHANI being draw 14 and not looking any further, DIDN'T see a horse drawn one, but I await the address for the race.
Report roobuck October 10, 2012 3:45 PM BST
I need to finish some work bazz....just go to youtube and do a search of dalakhani
Report sintonian October 10, 2012 4:49 PM BST
Orfevre faced a bigger field.
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 8:47 PM BST
Glad your powers of observation are NOT waning.
Report turnip turns October 10, 2012 9:05 PM BST
Crazy
Report bazzar October 10, 2012 9:29 PM BST
My post of 20.47 was to sintonian.
Report Sandown October 11, 2012 10:22 AM BST
For every position wide around a complete circuit, a horse will travel an extra 3 lngths approx. The Arc course is not a complete circuit so say half that but multiply by what 4-6 positions wide for orfevre and you get something like 6-9 lengths extra that he travelled - at minimum! Jockey HAD to tuck him in,or he might have travelled twice that -12-18lngths-  which meant holding him up because they have to travel 2f I believe in France before they can do that. As Orfvefre has always been ridden like that when he has won, what else was Soumillon expected to do, I wonder?
Report bbsband October 11, 2012 10:27 AM BST
agree sandown.done by the draw and an exceptional soft ground horse solemia imo
Report sintonian October 11, 2012 12:57 PM BST
I thought i'd put it in writing for you Bazz.

Here it is again.

Orfevre ran in a bigger field.
Report bazzar October 11, 2012 1:39 PM BST
My way of looking at a race has stood me in good stead since 1953, what about yours?
Report sintonian October 11, 2012 4:17 PM BST
I do fine Bazz. Since 2004.
Report RozelKid October 11, 2012 4:37 PM BST
you lot still licking your wounds?

or debating ones superior at reading races?


moving on, we hae  some interesting runners at woodbine this weekend.

David Wachman runners look good, that fire lily beat gordon lord byron in August, the 2nd won a Group 1 Prix De La Foret last weekend Wink.
Report bazzar October 15, 2012 12:53 PM BST
If SOUMILLON had delayed his run by 1 (one) second, then we would have been celebrating a JAPANESE trained winner of the ARC.
Report Navel-Gazer October 20, 2012 7:33 PM BST
Re- SAPPHIRE (earlier in the thread)

Navel-Gazer 21 Sep 12 16:24 Joined: 12 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 912 | Blogger: Navel-Gazer's blog
PS - that was the same meeting when everyone was saying the ground was appalling for Camelot, and they were eager to overlook that.

I don't necessarily believe that a horse that likes softer conditions, will perform at its best in a quagmire, and that was truly awful ground that day.

I think I've done my money on her for the Arc, but if she heads to Ascot for the Distaff on Champions' Day and there's cut in the ground, I'll be all over her, and she'll be a big price - I wasn't too disheartened by that defeat to Izzi Top, as I think she's improved this year and she's still progressing.


Navel-Gazer 05 Oct 12 21:35 Joined: 12 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 912 | Blogger: Navel-Gazer's blog

I STILL can't understand why Sapphire especially wasn't considered for this (the Arc) as I really rate her - I hope there's soft ground at Ascot in a fortnight because she'll be a decent price - I won't be stung again in backing her ante-post.



ALAS...there was NEVER a sniff of a double figure price on her for the race earlier today, even in the AP market - I'm very disappointed I didn't win a bean but I thought she was poor value today, regardless of how much I thought she was a group one performer - that was a top race in all but name & grade today and makes her as good as any filly with the possible exception of Solemia.

There were obviously reasons for concern as she missed so many engagements, and Weld said earlier that she'd looked like coming into season a few times - I don't know why such information is kept from us, and there's no excuse in these internet times Sad

She was a five figure winner for me in the Arc, and after a virtual no-hoper in Solemia won the race, it's irritating that Sapphire didn't make the gig as she had her ideal conditions of soft ground and 12f - then again...that extra fortnight may have helped her trainer get her in peak condition, so you can't win 'em all Sad

I do get the odd one right sometimes WinkGrin
Report Navel-Gazer October 20, 2012 7:33 PM BST
PS - Sorry Bazzar...and DANEDREAM! WinkLaugh
Report Navel-Gazer October 20, 2012 11:35 PM BST
Just watched Sapphire's victory again and she's won over the same C&D as her stable-mate Princess Highway nearly as easily against the same opponent - they're two cracking Moyglare fillies (given their conditions) and you have to feel a bit of sympathy for a real trier in Shirocco Star who can win a cheap fillies' group one next season if she stays around.

It'd be really interesting to know how Weld rates his two excellent fillies who have yet to win a group one, though they're definitely up to it!

I think Sapphire would easily turn the tables on Izzi Top with a bit of cut over 12f (possibly even at 10f though she was beaten fair & square) and Great Heavens wouldn't concern me at all, even though she has excuses having run in the Arc just 13 days ago.
Report FatoteSport October 20, 2012 11:40 PM BST
Navel, Sapphire was 10/1 with b365 less than 7 days ago. Nice performance today - agreed that at 5/2 she was no value at all. Suspect RoP winning the first had something to do with the SP.
Report Navel-Gazer October 21, 2012 1:04 AM BST
FS - I thought 6 was the maximum she hit in the AP book? Confused

Nevertheless...as I mentioned with all the doubts about her well-being (and that's the most crucial point) her price was TOO short!

I don't mean to seem arrogant but I thought many months ago I saw a group one filly and (on that ground) her defeat to Izzi Top didn't concern me at all!
I feel fully vindicated now even though I didn't win a bean and she cost me a few quid in the Arc market!

She's a better filly than ANY of Gosden's in my view and that includes Great Heavens & The Fugue as well as Izzi Top!
Over 12f (with cut) that's a confident assertion...especially in the light of today's events.
Report bazzar October 21, 2012 11:41 AM BST
Well done with SAPPHIRE, NAVEL.
I have managed to get over DANEDREAM not running in the ARC
and I am very much cheered by the rumours that when the SWAMP FEVER business is cleared up,
she will stay in training as a 5yo, if her level of ability is maintained, I will follow her over a cliff (as some silly people quote).
Report bazzar October 21, 2012 11:53 AM BST
I have posted on MANY occasions about jockeyship (or the lack of thought of some jockeys),
but ask yourself this, P.J.SMULLEN has been stable jockey to D.WELD and with great
success, why is this?
Another jockey with similar success is K. MANNING. first jockey to J. BOLGER.
both these jockeys do not do silly things on horseback, don't tootle along well
behind and give their horse a hard race, they are not flashy, but they are RELIABLE,
their employer can rely on them to produce the goods, I wish there were more of
their type.
Report Navel-Gazer October 21, 2012 1:14 PM BST
Bazzar - you quote two excellent jockeys and two even better trainers!

I'm pleased Danedream's staying around as I thought she'd run her last race and was off to the paddocks Happy
I hope Weld's fillies stay in training (they must do) as well as Solemia & Snow Fairy.

The one I'm most wanting to see is Orfevre, as I think he can dominate world racing!


Whether Sapphire would have been good enough on the day (or ready for it) we'll probably never know, but the most galling aspect of it all is that Solemia won!
Meaning that Sapphire, Reliable Man & Imperial Monarch should have lined up with a chance under their optimal conditions.

What the trainers of the last pair were playing at with the Woodbine preference I'll never understand...a few days after the Arc, the ground was FIRM in Canada! Shocked

I can't say I'm a big fan of the O'Brien colt but he was a C&D winner that has group one form and handles heavy ground...I'd say they were requisite qualifications!
Report Navel-Gazer October 21, 2012 6:17 PM BST
I've just been watching a recording of the Sunday Forum on ATR (FFS that Chris McGrath is hard work Shocked - is everyone with that surname a total bore?) and listening to Dermot speak about Sapphire...he said he was quite confident of her yesterday despite the tough opposition (three Classic winners in opposition) and reckoned she was just a little immature to have gone to the Arc this year, and she will be trained for it next season!

That's great to hear such news but she looks ground dependent to me, and Weld virtually conceded that!
The way luck goes...it'll be rattling hard next season at Longchamp so they'll probably miss it again Sad
Report roobuck October 21, 2012 7:25 PM BST
Saw her in the paddock Navel and she is a tiny little thing. A concern would be how she would run against the colts which she has yet to do as far as I can see.

Don't want to decry the form but like you say she was running on ground she loves and the 3yos had been on the go for a long time and Dancing Rain would surely have needed the race. That said on that ground I wouldn't want to be against her if there was ever a re-match
Report Navel-Gazer October 21, 2012 8:25 PM BST
Roo - it's hard to tell how far she can go but for Weld to have been considering the Arc for her, certainly bodes well, as he's not one for pipe-dreams.
I was very pleased to hear him confirm my views about her, and furthermore comment on her immaturity which is promising for next season.

What I would have liked to hear was him say was that soft ground wasn't a requirement for her, but he intimated that it was.
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