Aintree National Meeting Selections

I'll be on Dodging Bullets as well Judo.  I'm not surprised that Ruby has picked Pearl Swan, but I think Dodging Bullets has got more improvement in him over the minimum trip.  I think these'll go too quick for Pearl Swan, and he'll stay on for a place past tired horses.  Dodging Bullets still a relatively fresh horse, and I'm not sure if this is one race too many for Grumeti this season.

I'd imagine that I'll back Burton Port in the Bowl (reasons explained on your Bowl thread).  I think 4/1 is a very reasonable price, especially with a couple going 1/4 of the odds first 3.

Probably Kumbeshwar in the Red Rum.  He's only been put up 1lbs for his place in the Grand Annual, and ran well at the meeting last year, running Zarkandar very close.  I think the winner will come from the top half of the handicap, rather than the bottom half.

I'll see what price Cristal Bonus is in the Al Ferof race.  Nicholls' horses were out of form at Cheltenham, so I'm prepared to give him another go.  Al Ferof is obviously the one to beat, and would have to oppose Menorah again.

Foxhunters is a lottery for me, but would love to see the old boy My Way De Solzen win again.

I have an awful record at Aintree, so if you want to lose a vast sum of money, follow all of my selections above

Top price on Grumeti at the moment is 4/1, will wait till the morning if 9/2 comes available as the early money is for the PFN runners ..

on WAF in the bowl, with MOTH as a saver.

Looking at the handicaps tonight.

4/1 just gone Sint.

I'd personally take the price because I think he'll go off a fairly solid fav and insurance of BOG if backing online.

Yep, it was only VC who had it,evryone else 7/2.

2;00 full bank on Big Bucks

2;30 full bank lay on Countrywide Flame

3;05 full bank lay on Hunt Ball

4;15 full bank lay on Free World

other lays to be decided tomorrow

Can't believe Hunt Ball is as low as 5-1 on the early markets. Surely its sentiment money - this will drift tomorrow on course as the real money goes on Henderson / Nicholls.

The Foxhunters - most of the field can be ruled out as they have been prepared expecting good ground. The National course will be at its softest tomorrow, so Boxer George and Herons Well are two against the field who will like the ground.

Star of Angels in the last is very interesting to me at a price. No race at chelts, had previously won like a horse with more to give off top weight in real soft ground.

Grumetti should show his flat speed to win in the Juvenile. He had a slightly interupted prep for Chelts so should improve.

American Spin.5.25.Novices have a good record in this race.66/1 with Lads.1PT.EW.
Free World.4.15.I dont know why you would you would want to lay this TheFormMan,unless you think it will fall.1PT WIN.12/1.Gen.

Agree Coupers. Think free World has great chance at that price. Was going a dream at Chelts before fall

i take it you pair dont bother looking a form before making selections then

Hinterland may have been overlooked. His win in November over Hollow Tree was striking, and he jumped extremely quick and accurate - better than Dodging Bullets imo. Trying to concede a penalty to Baby Mix was no disgrace, and both those runs tie in very closely with the form of Sadlers Risk and the placed Triumph horses. Then there was a strange effort in a hcap off 141 where Walsh looked keen to avoid any kind of a hard race. Off since and this speedy track could suit him. Well worth a go at better than 10/1.

Betfair Bowl

Going for a rank one in here @50-1 in the Shape of ROBERTA GOLDBACK, hopefully the 1st time visor can bring around the improvement that blinkers did when he was 2nd to Quel Espirit , its a year since this one fell at the last at Punchestown when nearly winning the Gold Cup then, more of negatives about the others bring out the bet here though-1 Point win

Gone for a couple in the 4-15 in the name of SILK DRUM, last years winner of a fair mark now lower than when winning 1.5 points win and a 1/2 Point on Free World @11-1 as a saver, he could be dangerously handicapped

In the last im Sweet on PALACE JESTER@20-1, this one ran far better than its finishing position suggests LTO, being bang there until 2 out, the easier track, AP up and the stables record here tempts me into a bet, saver 1 Point on VEILED @16-1 who's record after a previous run is very good after Chelt, only caveat being the ground

5.5 Points to lose

get in there Grumeti!! Good start

after that heart attack,i am canceling all further bets for today

I was on Sadler's Risk 2pts win :(

Later selections are;
Astracad 2pts win

Cristal Bonus 2pts win

Oscar Prairie 1.25pts win
Deireadh Re 0.75pts win

Phuck, wrong outsider, tossed it out second last

trainer put people away there imo, said he was using it a prep. Moral of the story ?

WAF was going well until he smashed a fence then downed tools.

Ground is really drying up.

Added Pepite Rose 2pts win

what are the views on the going then ?

I would say good to soft. Times look very similar to same day last year.

Can anybody not see the short priced beautys going in on saturday? Simonsig & Sprinter Sacre..Can see Sprinter Sacre starting about 1/6 nothing in the race is even worthy of cleaning this horses backside imo..But maybe some odds against simonsig? Aland Islands & Cottonmill are surely to give abit of juice in his price..All aboard the saturday first race double wiiiii

After a day where most of mine failed to finish its with trepidation, annoyed that i picked the wrong Oirish outsider though, wasnt a lot between them, que sera

I must live in a different world to odds compilers, imo the Melling chase is priced up on 2m form, before the champion chase a lot of people were saying finians might be a short runner and not quite get home in top company, whilst that wsnt true he's no cert to be as effective over 4f furlongs further and must be taken on. Many have tried the double but better Chasers have failed and Albertas will set a gallop for sure, although im a fan of AR i do feel that younger ones could prevail here and the Nicholls one KAUTO STONE is the one for me, back to 20f for the 1st time since Down royal he is a 2 Points win at 11-1, a 1/2 Point rfc with POQUELIN could land a tasty f/c and a 1/4 Point rfc with Wishful Thinking just in case Hobbs has him back as well as his winner today

In the 4-50 im going with another pumpkinhead runner in LIKE MINDED at 25-1 who through Bourne has a majot chance here for 1 Point win, another dart on STREET ENTERTAINER at 16-1 as he came to himself last spring on decent ground, finally 1/2 Point SAPPHIR RIVER at 33-1, entered up in the big hurdle on sat but off 130 here

going was good to soft based on times and looks like it will only get quicker

anyway

2.00 Darlan 5 pts win

2.30 Champion Court 3 points win

3.05 Albertas Run 3 points win Poquelin 1pt win

4.14 Tap Night 1pt win 3 pt place

Zilzal, can't agree with you more about Finian's. Just had a leaf through Mark Howard's book where NJH describes Him as 'categorically a 2-miler'. In any case his QM win was in the weakest edition for years, and a farce to boot. What to oppose him with? I take a chance with Wishfull Thinking. I'm encouraged by the good effort of Menorah today and also Captain Chris ran well in the gold Cup after a terrible prep run. Can't have Kauto at all and wish Poquelin had waited for Cheltenham next week.

The novice chase too looks interesting, as Silviniaco looks a classic Autumn horse, and Join Together ran horribly in the RSA. All happening too quick for him tomorrow I think. For me it rests between Champion Court and Solix, and they are closely matched on Jan 1st running. Just have the feeling Solix is going to improve for the extra distance a bit more than Keighley's admirable chaser. I think the smaller field will help his jumping and he must be the bet at 6/1.

4.15  All eyes obviously on Fingal who is the class act. I feel he needs soft ground, and after his problems I doubt if he will be asked to battle hard with next year uppermost in minds. This race rarely goes to a really good horse and I feel it may be worth swimming in cheaper watersmwith Ballyrock, who improved massively with each of his 3 runs and is bred to love the step up to 3 miles. His trainer won the race last year with a similar average type.

2.00. Darlan is quite a solid favourite but Theatre Guide can go well. Vulcanite always looks promising but ultimately he's looked a weak finisher over hurdles. Prospect Wells hasn't really lived up to his hype and perhaps Oscara Dara will be a bigger threat tohis stablemate.

3:05 Wishful Thinking 5 pts win

Right Step in the 2.00. Race usually won by a decent flat horse and he's rated higher on the flat than Topolski, who won it last year and made up a lot of ground to win at Kempton. Best flat form on flat left hand tracks and some of these have had hard races recently. 1pt @ 12-1.

Kauto Stone is reunited with Paul Carberry for the first time since hacking up at Down Royal in November over this trip and ran really well in The Tingle Creek. Pulled too hard at Ascot then fell early in The Queen Mother, as his more famous half brother once did. Finians Rainbow would surprise me if he stayed/won after a hard race and the stable aren't in the form they were in at Cheltenham. 1pt @ 12-1.

Aimigayle seemed to need the race last time at Newbury and it's difficult to see her reversing form with the winner but she's just the type to relish the challenge of The Topham and could lead for a long way if she gets out in front. There could be a battle for the lead with Little Josh and Frankie Figg but front/prominent racers do well in this race. 1pt each way @ 16-1 5 places.

Orsippus missed Cheltenham but is a Grade 1 winner over 2 miles at this course and 136 is a relatively attractive mark for a fresh horse who should relish the ground. Ran really well at Market Rasen under a big weight then had a school round behind Simonsig at Kelso. Won on the flat at York last summer so another who loves flat tracks and should go well. 1pt @ 20-1.

Already 5pts down after today so need a change of luck.

all over Right Step although its not my money that's lined up.
The race usually goes to a flat bred & this years Supreme could well end up being a poor one
On the -ive side selection is inexperienced but I take the view that he is street wise from the flat & his jumping was ok at kempton

well if it is a flat bred you want then it must be Prospect Wells who has a peak flat RPR of 118 from a Group 1

Think Darlan wins myself

don't like the price Of PW. May save if it drifts to >5.
Booster K.Stone too young for this battle?

Happy with last nights selections of Grumetti and Herons Well.

tomorrow Amigayle will jump them silly in the Topham, ground will suit.

Bestmate, surely it depends on how the other horses come out of Cheltenham. Riverside Theatre had cllearly regressed, Medermit didn't run up to anywhere near his Ryanair mark so we need to see if Albertas Run can buck the trend. I think it might be a bit sharp for him but he'll be in there pitching all the way. Finians Rainbow is best with a break between races and seemed to have a hard enough race in The Queen Mother as well as being a dubious stayer. Just observations but makes the price look attractive given the doubts over the others and Ladbrokes only 8s.

Prospect wells has had a hard season and was running on at the end of The Supreme but wouldn't fancy it myself. Think it needs further and is exposed but got its chance on form.

Poquelin
Always waining
Cotton Mill

Backing each to win and covering win stake on the place.

Silviniaco Conti Win

Vulcanite 2pts
Champion Court 5pts
Poquelin 2pts
Cotton Mill 3pts (all win only)

Just backing Finians Rainbow today. I know there are some doubts re the distance, but I personally dont see it as a problem. He just needs a lead in his races instead of doing the donkey work like he did in the Arkle last year. With Wishful Thinking prominent and Albertas wanting to make it a true test he should be able to sit off the pace and pick them off, I hope.
He is a much more settled horse this season. 7/4.

trip wont be an issue for Finians,has won over 2m3f as a hurdler,was only beaten a length in the grade1 challow hurdle and ran well in the neptune hurdle when beat just 6 lengths by PC and was even about to win a PTP over 3 miles on heavy going when falling at the last when in front cruising

It`s  a Gimme.4.50A 4/1.LADS.2PT W.LAD.
Wishfull Thinking.3.05.A.10/1.Billies.1/pt.W

boom max 5 pointer landed 2.9 average

good start again jud,did it easy

Well done winners.Sint your anticipation on how the FR needed cover was spot on

Good old Always Waining ;-)

Captain Chris has nothing on Finians, Besty. He hay have won the battle,but Finians wins the war.

well done Darlan and Always Waining backers.

Bookies taken a bit of a hit today but they'll get it all back tomorrow laying Synchronised.

Having a mare, only near one was a 33-1 4th that i backed win only

Not much tomorrow, would have fancied Overturn on good ground but he isnt there

3-15

I suspect that this has been the plan for a while with SAINT ARE, last three runs over shorter since running Harry The Viking close, this course winner will do for me at 12-1 1.5 Points win

Ive fancied JUNIOR for ages, been trained for this and the price of 16-1 is insulting imo 1.5 Points win

Was going to back Kazlian  but the price is way to small, gl all

Cant see either Simonsig or Sprinter getting beat but not my kind of prices

2.50 Zarkandar 5 points win
3.25 Chapoturgeon 2 points win
5.05 Kazilian 1 point win

plus my National bets

Scratched my head over that Aintree Hurdle, came down to three ways of thinking and in the end had no bet

Dont fancy ROR, to me he didnt look at home lst year over the tighter course

either, Zarkander got outpaced and will relish the extra distance, repeat of last year with a OW/TS f/c or opt for the latter(which i nearly did!) at the bigger price

opted for the no bet option

They have watered both courses again btw 3-5 mm

****ssssss

At the moment im just sticking with my national bets for the final day, which are WER and Giles.

I like Oscar Whisky as on a line through Overrturn from Ascot he has the beating of ROR and im not sure Zark is ready to take on these two tbh, much as he is still open to improvement. But OW price is a bit tight at 9/4 so will see how the market develops. Need him to win for TTF purposes anyway.

I regularly dump around half my Cheltenham profits at this meeting, have done for most of the last 40 years and only seem to come out ahead if I get the winner of the big one :)

So today...
Rock On Ruby 4 pts win

Synchronised 4.5pts win
Killyglen 1.5pts win
Giles Cross 1pt win

Thousand Stars win for me.

Looks like i will be dumping half mine as well Thieved unless summat happens today, still i thought that last year until i hit the OW/TS f/c at 80-1

ZARKANDAR favorite


cant believe all this mug money for him,how many more runs is it going to take people to realise that he is a slow horse and a stayer and slow stayers dont win 2m4f speed races on a flat track on good ground,worst favorite in the history of racing

3:05 MAX 5 PTS WIN OSCAR WHISKY 5/2

     MAX 5 PTS MATCH BET OSCAR WHISKY 5/6 V ZARKANDAR
     
     MAX 5 PTS MATCH BET OSCAR WHISKY 5/6 V ROCK ON RUBY
small saver on Thousand Stars 6/1 who is the only threat

Phew, out with a profit, actually had the cast as well(only for a 1/4 Point though)

Hard lines Judorick, last strides

Hard lines Judorick, last strides