Grand National 2012 Thoughts @ Feb 24th

So it’s coming to that time of the year when Cheltenham and Aintree take centre stage before the return of the flat action. While those races on the level are more to my tastes, I have always held a special place for the National and as such try to sift through the runners at an early stage to see if anything catches my eye. The race has been diluted these days to something of a lesser spectacle, fences lowered and ways around the outside of the obstacles put in place; it’s made it much harder to predict as a result oddly enough. When you needed a proper stayer and the trends were the friend of the punter the last two winners of the race, Ballabriggs and Don’t Push It would never have been crowned Grand National winners. Maybe they should think of changing the name to the Alright National? Grand seems too strong a word now. But onto this year’s renewal and I’ve picked out four from the entries as they are today that sparked my interest in one way or another. Here they are in weight order….

Neptune Collonges
Age: 11
Weight: 11-6
National Rating: 157
Best high street price: 33/1

Sure to be a popular choice on the day with the once a year players due to his striking grey appearance, this fella has class. A winner of three Grade 1 chases and a third and fourth in Gold Cups to his name, he gets into the National off a generous mark of 157. He’s done a lot of good work in the closing stages of his last two races, finishing second twice and splitting dour stayers Giles Cross and Le Beau Bai at Haydock last time. The Aintree race might just be what gets the best out of him nowadays. The way it looks at present he will avoid Cheltenham this year and head straight to Liverpool where he could be a dangerous player. He’s mixed it with the best for the past five years.


Seabass
Age: 9
Weight: 10-12
National Rating: 149
Best high street price: 33/1

Ted Walsh has seen his gelding improve no end since January 2010. The horse has won six on the bounce and has been raised in the ratings a good 49lbs as a result. Having been winning over much shorter distances than he would face at Aintree he doesn’t leap off the page as an Aintree type at first. But, as mentioned, you don’t have to be an out and out stayer these days and he has won a PTP over three miles as recently as three months ago. The comments from his last few races also offer encouragement with phrases such as ‘stayed on well’ and ‘looking stronger at the finish’ featuring. It’d be folly to ignore his chances at this stage based solely on stamina worries. Due to appear at Naas this weekend it’ll be interesting to see how he gets on over two miles and if Ted sends him to Cheltenham or wraps him up for Aintree. He’s voiced concerns over the quick ground being against his horse but the form it’s in and the improvement that keeps coming should hopefully persuade Walsh senior to have a crack at the big one in April.


Shakalakaboomboom
Age: 8
Weight: 10-12
National Rating: 149
Best high street price: 25/1

Henderson doesn’t have a great record in the National but he’s a live chance of improving that with this gelding. While maybe lacking the experience and craft of some of the others likely to be in the race, the horse has improved this season and he’s likely to have the assistance of former winner Barry Geraghty come the day itself. He’s had a pop around the course before in the Topham last year when he finished seventh, perhaps not coming into the race in the best form and having ran at Cheltenham a couple of weeks previous. Henderson has said that good ground suits him better, which he’s likely to get come April 14th and he’ll likely be kept fresh for a crack at the race now after an encouraging second behind Calgary Bay in the Sky Bet chase last time.


The Midnight Club
Age: 11
Weight: 10-8
National Rating: 145
Best high street price: 33/1

Sent off the favourite for the race last year on the back of his Bobbyjo win and the fact he was the choice of Ruby. He had no luck in running at all; swerving around fallers and being bumped a couple of times. Ruby was excellent on him and guided him to finish an unlikely looking sixth. Signs so far this season have been less encouraging but he’s likely to have been aimed to be in prime shape for another shot at Aintree glory and must get better luck this year than he did last, come the day itself. Off a mark four pounds lower this time he deserves another chance to prove himself, if capable. A potential run in the Gold Cup to sharpen him up could be on the cards and that might not be a bad move.


So there are four that have some appeal from my point of view at this stage of proceedings based on price and ability. I’m sure lots will change between now and when the tape goes up to a chorus of roars in April but, as always, it’s enjoyable to try and eek out some advantage as early as possible with some ante post action.